project: localvm-research document: expB_token_stability/hypothesis author: Simon-Pierre Boucher contact: contact@spboucher.ai created: 2026-08-12 modified: 2026-08-12 status: reviewed
Hypothesis — expB_token_stability
Consumes expA's block-energy trace. Decides the temporal-locality route for C1's escalation bytes (and G01/G06/G12/G13 cache designs): is the important- block set stable enough across consecutive tokens to cache?
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Hypothesis
The per-token important-block set (blocks covering 95% of FFN energy) is
temporally sticky: mean Jaccard(t, t+1) ≥ 0.5, decaying slowly with
distance, and the UNION working set over a 128-token generation stays
well below the full model (≤80% of blocks) — i.e., a generation has a
reusable working set that a RAM cache can hold, so residual/expert bytes
are fetched once per window, not once per token.
Falsification criterion
If Jaccard(t, t+1) < 0.3 (set churns almost completely every token) or
the 128-token union ≥ 95% of all blocks (no working set exists at
generation scale), the temporal-locality route (b) for C1 dies, leaving
only batch amortization — C1 then merges into C2 (amortized
verification), and G06/G12 prefetchers must predict, not cache.
Method
Load expA's block_energy_trace.npz (positions × 28 layers × 96 blocks,
with domain and trajectory ids). Per trajectory and layer:
top-set(t) = smallest block set covering 95% of position-t energy.
Metrics: mean Jaccard(t, t+δ) for δ ∈ {1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32}; union
working-set fraction over windows {8, 32, 128} tokens; per-layer and
per-domain aggregates. Cross-prompt preview (expC-lite): per-trajectory
aggregate top-set, Jaccard within-domain vs across-domain.
Baseline
Random sets of identical size (expected Jaccard for independent draws)
— the null; and δ→∞ behavior (unconditional overlap between distant
tokens) as the floor stickiness must beat.
Result
KILL TRIGGERED: 128-token union = 99.9% of blocks (≥95% line); Jaccard(t,t+1)=0.69 vs random null 0.64 — stickiness is a set-size artifact. Domain locality nil (within=across=1.0).
Interpretation
No cacheable working set for dense SwiGLU energy sets: DejaVu/LLM-in-a-flash paradigm does not transfer without ReLUfication. G06/G12/G13 dead on this family; pivot to batch amortization (C1 merges into C2).
Next experiment
Prototype margin-gated deferred-refinement runtime; expG rerun at 8B.