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Running LLMs larger than memory on a consumer Mac — falsification-driven research: margin-gated deferred refinement, out-of-core verification on Apple Silicon. TR-01 published.

Python 63.2% JavaScript 23.5% CSS 11.8% Shell 0.9% Makefile 0.5%

expD: results — progressive coding validated, two-tier policy 97.6% @ 35% esc

Monotone convergence, gating composes across stages, static-parity
caveat recorded; bytes-per-escalation identified as binding unknown.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Simon-Pierre Boucher committed 5 h ago (Aug 12, 2026) parent e02ba14

Showing 6 changed files with +10,701 and −7

modified experiments/micro/expD_progressive_reconstruction/analysis.md +66 −3
@@ -3,10 +3,73 @@ project: localvm-research
3 3 document: expD_progressive_reconstruction/analysis
4 4 author: Simon-Pierre Boucher
5 5 contact: contact@spboucher.ai
6 −created: 2026-08-11
7 −status: draft
6 +created: 2026-08-12
7 +status: reviewed
8 8 ---
9 9
10 10 # Analysis — expD_progressive_reconstruction
11 11
12 −*To be written after results exist. Must include the seven-field block and the evidence standard of CLAUDE.md §10.*
12 +Run: `results/expD_progressive_reconstruction/20260812T043508Z/` · code committed
13 +before run. Qwen3-1.7B bf16 reference, affine group-64 residual ladders, 48
14 +trajectories × 128 tokens (6 144 positions), hidden states at layers 6/13/20/27.
15 +Bit counts below INCLUDE scale/bias overhead (+1.0 bit/param/stage at group 64).
16 +
17 +```text
18 +Hypothesis / Falsification
19 + See hypothesis.md. Kill criteria: base3+1 residual < 90% agreement, or
20 + two-tier policy unable to reach ≥97% with <50% escalation, or
21 + non-monotone hidden-state convergence. → NONE triggered.
22 +
23 +Result
24 + Ladder A (3-bit stages) agree KL AUROC esc@99% hid.err L6→L27
25 + stage0 4.0 bits 0.732 0.778 0.850 60.4% 0.34 → 0.83
26 + stage1 8.0 bits 0.957 0.024 0.952 11.0% 0.05 → 0.12
27 + stage2 12.0 bits 0.983 0.0023 0.980 2.6% 0.01 → 0.04
28 + Ladder B (4-bit stages)
29 + stage0 5.0 bits 0.875 0.198 0.895 35.3% 0.16 → 0.35
30 + stage1 10.0 bits 0.984 0.0031 0.976 2.4% 0.02 → 0.04
31 + Two-tier margin policies (take base decision if margin ≥ τ, else stage+1):
32 + B_base4 0→1: τ=2.0 → 25% escalated, 96.4% agree; τ=3.0 → 35%, 97.6%
33 + A_base3 1→2: τ=0.5 → 5% escalated, 97.4% agree; τ=1.0 → 12%, 97.9%
34 + A_base3 0→1: τ=3.0 → 44% escalated, 92.7% (3-bit base too weak alone)
35 + Sanity: ladder stage0 rows reproduce expG's flat 3-bit and 4-bit rows
36 + (0.732 vs 0.731; 0.875 vs 0.874) — pipeline consistent.
37 +
38 +Interpretation
39 + 1. PROGRESSIVE RESIDUAL CODING WORKS: convergence is rapid and monotone
40 + at every depth; each stage roughly divides hidden-state error by 5×
41 + and KL by ~30-60×. The margin signal stays strong at every stage
42 + (AUROC 0.85–0.98), so gating composes across stages — multi-tier
43 + escalation (G01+G02) is structurally sound.
44 + 2. HONEST CAVEAT — static parity, not static win: at matched stored
45 + bytes, one-shot flat quantization is mildly better than a residual
46 + ladder (flat 8-bit: 98.0% @9.0 bits vs ladder 3+3: 95.7% @8.0 bits;
47 + ladder 4+4 @10.0 ≈ flat 8-bit @9.0). The ladder's value is therefore
48 + NOT compression efficiency — it is that quality becomes a *runtime*
49 + variable: the same stored artifact serves 5.0-bit resident execution
50 + and on-demand refinement, which no flat format offers.
51 + 3. THE C1 OPERATING POINT EXISTS: 4-bit-class resident base (5.0
52 + bits/param incl. overhead) + margin gate at τ≈2–3 escalating 25–35%
53 + of tokens to base+residual yields 96.4–97.6% greedy agreement —
54 + within reach of the ≥97% target, using decisions, not hope.
55 + 4. THE OPEN VARIABLE IS BYTES-PER-ESCALATION: teacher-forced escalation
56 + here re-runs the whole model at stage+1, i.e. touches the FULL
57 + residual (≈1.06 GB at 1.7B; ≈20 GB at 32B) — incompatible with the
58 + ~650 MB/token expH budget at scale unless (a) escalation can be
59 + restricted to a sensitive subset of layers/blocks, or (b) residual
60 + reads have strong temporal locality so the hot residual working set
61 + lives in RAM. Hidden-error concentration at the last layer (0.83 at
62 + L27 vs 0.34 at L6, 4-bit base) suggests (a) is plausible: depth-
63 + weighted precision or last-layers-only escalation could capture most
64 + of the correction for a fraction of the bytes.
65 + 5. At the 1.7B scale used here, both base and residual fit in RAM —
66 + these results validate mechanisms, not end-to-end economics. Scale
67 + tests belong to Phase 7 prototyping.
68 +
69 +Next experiment
70 + expF (error accumulation / layer sensitivity): perturb precision per
71 + layer group to map which layers actually need escalation — if the top
72 + quartile of layers captures most disagreement repair, bytes-per-
73 + escalation drops ~4× and C1's arithmetic closes. Then expB (temporal
74 + locality of the escalated set).
75 +```
added experiments/micro/expD_progressive_reconstruction/expD_full.log +12 −0
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
1 +loading reference mlx-community/Qwen3-1.7B-bf16 …
2 + Fetching 9 files: 0%| | 0/9 [00:00<?, ?it/s] Fetching 9 files: 100%|██████████| 9/9 [00:00<00:00, 6401.35it/s]
3 +48 reference trajectories in 49s
4 +building ladder A_base3 [3, 3, 3] …
5 + stage 0 (4.0 bits): agree=0.7321 KL=0.7781 auroc=0.850
6 + stage 1 (8.0 bits): agree=0.9569 KL=0.0240 auroc=0.952
7 + stage 2 (12.0 bits): agree=0.9827 KL=0.0023 auroc=0.980
8 +building ladder B_base4 [4, 4] …
9 + stage 0 (5.0 bits): agree=0.8753 KL=0.1982 auroc=0.895
10 + stage 1 (10.0 bits): agree=0.9842 KL=0.0031 auroc=0.976
11 +
12 +wrote /Users/simon-pierreboucher/Desktop/localvm-research/results/expD_progressive_reconstruction/20260812T043508Z/results.json
modified experiments/micro/expD_progressive_reconstruction/hypothesis.md +13 −4
@@ -4,7 +4,8 @@ document: expD_progressive_reconstruction/hypothesis
4 4 author: Simon-Pierre Boucher
5 5 contact: contact@spboucher.ai
6 6 created: 2026-08-12
7 −status: draft
7 +modified: 2026-08-12
8 +status: reviewed
8 9 ---
9 10
10 11 # Hypothesis — expD_progressive_reconstruction
@@ -53,11 +54,19 @@ Baseline
53 54 bytes to be interesting.
54 55
55 56 Result
56 − <filled after the run>
57 + CONFIRMED (no kill criterion triggered). 3+3 bits: 95.7% agreement
58 + (≥95% target met); two-tier 4-bit policy: 97.6% @ 35% escalation
59 + (≥97% @ ≤40% met); hidden-state error monotone (≈5×/stage). Static
60 + parity caveat: flat quantization mildly beats ladders at equal bytes.
61 + Full numbers: results/expD_progressive_reconstruction/20260812T043508Z/.
57 62
58 63 Interpretation
59 − <filled after the run>
64 + Progressive coding's value is dynamic quality (one artifact, runtime-
65 + chosen precision), not compression. C1 operating point exists at
66 + 4-bit base + 25–35% escalation. Open variable: bytes-per-escalation
67 + (full-residual re-run is too big at scale) → layer-restricted
68 + escalation (expF) or temporal locality (expB).
60 69
61 70 Next experiment
62 − <filled after the run>
71 + expF layer-sensitivity map; then expB temporal locality.
63 72 ```
modified research/LOG.md +20 −0
@@ -180,3 +180,23 @@ Format per entry: date/time (local, with timezone) · question · experiment ·
180 180 escalation.
181 181 - **Decision:** Implement expD next (residual bytes per escalated token); plan an expG rerun
182 182 at 3B–8B to measure the scale trend.
183 +
184 +---
185 +
186 +## 2026-08-12 11:20 EDT — expD complete: progressive residual coding validated; C1 operating point exists
187 +
188 +- **Question:** How fast do decisions/hidden states converge with residual stages, and does a
189 + margin-gated two-tier policy work? (gates G01 ResidualPager + C1 arithmetic)
190 +- **Experiment:** expD — affine g64 residual ladders (3/3+3/3+3+3, 4/4+4 bits) on Qwen3-1.7B,
191 + 48 trajectories, hidden states at 4 depths, two-tier policy grid.
192 + Results: `results/expD_progressive_reconstruction/20260812T043508Z/`.
193 +- **Result:** Monotone, fast convergence (hidden err ÷5 per stage; KL ÷30–60). 3+3 bits: 95.7%
194 + agreement; 4+4: 98.4%. Two-tier policy (4-bit base, τ=3): 97.6% agreement escalating 35% of
195 + tokens. AUROC stays 0.85–0.98 at every stage. Sanity: stage0 rows reproduce expG flat rows.
196 + Caveat: at equal static bytes, flat quantization mildly beats ladders (98.0% @9.0 vs 95.7%
197 + @8.0 bits) — the ladder's value is runtime-variable quality, not compression.
198 +- **Interpretation:** G01+G02 compose; C1's operating point exists mechanically. The binding
199 + unknown is bytes-per-escalation: full-residual escalation (~20 GB at 32B) breaks the expH
200 + budget; last-layer error concentration (0.83 vs 0.34 at 4-bit) suggests layer-restricted
201 + escalation could cut it ~4×.
202 +- **Decision:** expF (layer sensitivity) next; then expB (temporal locality of escalated set).
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added results/expD_progressive_reconstruction/20260812T043508Z/results.json +5295 −0
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5294 + }
5295 +}
\ No newline at end of file
5296