spb/modelmap Public License

Only 1/4 fresh sources monotone (positive dose arm unstable); specificity
failed to replicate (random |delta| 3.36 vs bound 1.14 — run #5's 0.45 was
3-draw sampling luck). Halving held 4/4: necessary but not a reliable
additive handle. interventions/v1 (Level 2) stands as the final causal
claim. Gate record: refuse -> pass(L2) -> refuse -> refuse. Methodology
rule adopted: specificity controls need >=10 random draws + percentile
bound. Charts: x-axis customization for dose-response figures.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Conjunctive dose-response criterion failed: L12 passes everything
(strictly monotone +1.95..+6.79 across -2s..+2s, halved, specific 0.45
vs bound 1.11) but L04 is an overdose regime (any 2-sigma perturbation,
random included, collapses the margin) and L08 is not specific at 2s.
make_l3_mapcard.py refused v2; interventions/v1 stays Level 2. Gate
record: refuse (r3) -> pass (r4, L2) -> refuse (r5). Run #6 registered
ideas: layer-local dose calibration; minimal L12 single-layer L3 claim.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Early-band (2-15) mean specific damage +3.23..+3.35 across six fresh
direction sources (min +3.228 vs pre-registered bar 2.5; spread 0.12) on
a fresh behavioral bank (baseline +4.45). Late band unstable, no claim.
Published atlas/qwen3-0.6b-4bit/interventions/v1 (Level 2): a single
diff-of-means agreement direction, erased at any early-band layer,
removes ~73-75% of grammatical preference. The gate that refused run #3's
per-layer map passed the band version. Band map leads the home page.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Replication failed: mean pairwise rho 0.495 (<0.7), band claim fails on
2/5 direction sources; make_interventions_mapcard.py exits 1 and the
atlas stays at two entries. The refusal decomposes the object: early band
(2-15) replicates tightly (+2.98..+3.34 of +4.24), late band (20-27) is
estimator noise (-0.44..+2.77) -- retroactively explaining run #2's
anti-correlation. Run #4 pre-registers the narrower BAND claim.
Charts: interventions profile builder + dynamic y-axis (renders when a
map passes the gate).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

P1 CONFIRMED: bottom-5 skip damage was general (specificity 0.51 < random
mean 1.44), top-5 above mean but below p95 — skip never singles out the
probe layers. P2 FALSIFIED: direction-erasure profile anti-correlates with
the probe profile (rho=-0.136, p=0.76). Discovery: erasing the agreement
diff-of-means direction at ANY layer 2-15 destroys the behavior (up to
+3.97/+4.24 at L12, random-direction controls netted); late probe-ranked
layers carry little; L18/L22 suppressive. The load-bearing object is an
early-constructed DIRECTION, not a late place. Tap gains an edit hook.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Layer-skip ablation (Tap.skip): top-5 differential layers damage +2.17,
BELOW random-5 mean +3.14 (p95 +4.85); bottom-5 (layers 0-4) largest at
+4.99. Decodability != causal support (Hase-class dissociation, in-house).
Atlas probes/v2 records the failed check (interventions + confidence.md);
survival-rate ledger opened in expC analysis.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>