QC26 2.0.0 — au-delà des sondages + refonte visuelle · 83e7931 · qc26

QC26 2.0.0 — au-delà des sondages + refonte visuelle

Moteur : signaux (Polymarket, Wikipédia, presse Serper+LLM, GDELT, questions de leadership, partielles DGEQ),
ensemble (prior fondamentaux, momentum borné, tempérage par repondération IPF vers les marchés, ajustement
partielles), statistiques pondérées, summary.components (sondages seuls / sans marchés / ensemble), API
/api/signals*, /api/forecast/components, jobs planifiés, admin signals/refresh, changelog 2.0.0.
Correctifs : sortants depuis la liste DGEQ des candidatures (5 circonscriptions de partielles erronées),
chemins d'archive relocalisables, horodatages UTC explicites (TZDateTime).
Web : design system clair/sombre (Fraunces, Inter, JetBrains Mono, accent sarcelle), couleurs de partis en
variables CSS, héros éditorial avec gaufre des 127 sièges, comparaison sondages/marchés/ensemble, page
/signaux, tendance interactive, refonte nav/mobile/footer, méthodologie v2.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Simon-Pierre Boucher committed 17 days ago (Sep 7, 2026) parent 570fe76

70 changed files +3,279 −634

modified CLAUDE.md +7 −2

		`@@ -12,11 +12,16 @@ Spécification produit complète : voir la mission QC26 (design « Editorial Dat`
12	12	## Où sont les choses
13	13	- Moteur : `engine/` (FastAPI :8201). Base SQLite `engine/data/qc26.db` (WAL). Archives `engine/data/archive/{polls,documents,live}` par SHA-256. Copies officielles DGEQ `engine/data/official/`.
14	14	- Web : `web/` (Next 16, :8200), rewrite `/api/*` → moteur. Composants du design system dans `web/src/components/`.
15		−- Modèle : `engine/qc26/model/` (aggregate = poids/effets maison/Kalman ; ridings = swing proportionnel + erreurs ; run = orchestration, diff, impacts). Changer un paramètre = bump `model_version` + entrée `CHANGELOG` dans `api/public.py`.
	15	+- Modèle : `engine/qc26/model/` (aggregate = poids/effets maison/Kalman ; ridings = swing proportionnel + erreurs ; ensemble = v2 : prior fondamentaux, momentum borné, tempérage par les marchés via repondération IPF des simulations, ajustement partielles ; run = orchestration, stats pondérées, `summary.components`, diff). Changer un paramètre = bump `model_version` + entrée `CHANGELOG` dans `api/public.py`.
	16	+- Signaux (v2) : `engine/qc26/signals/` — markets (Polymarket Gamma/CLOB), attention (Wikimedia pageviews), media (Serper news + classement LLM ; GDELT best-effort, 1 req/6,5 s), fundamentals (questions de leadership des sondages → satisfaction, meilleur PM, favorabilité…), byelections (DGEQ via Firecrawl, code URL = code DGEQ carte 2017). Tables `signals`, `markets`, `market_prices`, `media_items`, `by_elections`. API `/api/signals*`, `/api/forecast/components`, admin `POST /api/admin/signals/refresh?what=all`. Page `/signaux`.
	17	+- Design : tokens clair/sombre dans `web/src/app/globals.css` (`data-theme`, script inline `THEME_INIT_SCRIPT`), Fraunces (display) + Inter + JetBrains Mono ; couleurs de partis via `partyVar()/partyAlpha()` (variables CSS `--p-*`, éclaircies en sombre) — `partyColor()` (hex) réservé aux images OG.
16	18	- Soirée électorale : `engine/qc26/live/` (feed officiel, simulation 2022, nowcast). `POST /api/admin/live/simulation/start` rejoue 2022 en accéléré pour tester la chaîne complète.
17	19
18	20	## Gotchas
19		−- SQLite : ne jamais tenir une transaction ouverte pendant un appel LLM (commits explicites dans les connecteurs) ; timeout 90 s.
	21	+- SQLite : ne jamais tenir une transaction ouverte pendant un appel LLM (commits explicites dans les connecteurs) ; timeout 90 s. Les `DateTime` passent par `TZDateTime` (UTC explicite à la relecture) : toujours `.isoformat()` sur des objets tz-aware.
	22	+- Chemins d'archive stockés absolus : lire via `util.resolve_archive_path()` (la base a été créée sur le laptop puis déplacée).
	23	+- Sortant·e = drapeau `depute_sortant` de la liste DGEQ des candidatures, puis gagnant de partielle, puis gagnant 2022 transposé (jamais l'inverse).
	24	+- Fraunces via `next/font/google` : `axes` seulement sans `weight` (police variable).
20	25	- DGEQ : « PCQ » = Parti communiste, le Parti conservateur est « PCOQ » ; CSV en cp1252 avec tiret 0x96 (`util.fix_dgeq_dash`).
21	26	- Wikipédia n'est qu'un index d'amorçage (tier 5) : les lignes `secondary-index` sont remplacées par le PDF de la firme dès qu'il est archivé ; les URL médias (La Presse, L'actualité, X…) ne sont pas des documents primaires.
22	27	- La règle « pas de candidature → part résiduelle » ne s'active que pour un parti dont la liste est ≥ 90 % complète.

modified README.md +5 −0

		`@@ -50,3 +50,8 @@ Le premier démarrage sur base vide télécharge les données officielles, amorc`
50	50	## Production
51	51
52	52	Déployé par `mld` (passerelle M1M32) : `mld stage <dir> qc26` → `mld deploy qc26`. Deux processus PM2 (`qc26-engine` :8201, `qc26-web` :8200) + `qc26-ngrok` (www.qc26.ca → 8200). Le web réécrit `/api/*` vers le moteur.
	53	+
	54	+
	55	+## Modèle 2.0 (2026-09-07) — au-delà des sondages
	56	+
	57	+Quatre familles de signaux indépendants, archivés avec leur provenance et publiés séparément (`/signaux`, `summary.components`) : marchés de prédiction Polymarket (repondération des simulations, poids 30 %), fondamentaux (satisfaction du gouvernement → prior sur le parti sortant, poids décroissant vers 0 le jour du vote), momentum borné (prime au chef, attention Wikipédia, ton de presse classé par LLM), élections partielles depuis 2022 (excès de swing local). La vue « sondages seuls » reste publiée. Refonte visuelle « Editorial Data Intelligence » : thème clair/sombre, Fraunces + Inter + JetBrains Mono, gaufre des 127 sièges, tendance interactive.

modified deploy/qc26.manifest.json +125 −123

		`@@ -1,127 +1,129 @@`
1	1	{
2		− "app": "qc26",
3		− "label": "QC26 — L'élection québécoise 2026, en données",
4		− "domain": "www.qc26.ca",
5		− "port": 8200,
6		− "health_path": "/healthz",
7		− "dir": "~/apps/qc26",
8		− "extra_paths": [],
9		− "sync_excludes": [
10		− "engine/.venv/",
11		− "__pycache__/",
12		− ".pytest_cache/",
13		− ".ruff_cache/",
14		− "*.egg-info/",
15		− ".git/",
16		− "web/node_modules/",
17		− "web/.next/",
18		− "engine/logs/",
19		− "logs/",
20		− ".DS_Store",
21		− "engine/data/qc26.db",
22		− "engine/data/qc26.db-shm",
23		− "engine/data/qc26.db-wal",
24		− "engine/data/archive/",
25		− "engine/data/cache/"
	2	+ "app": "qc26",
	3	+ "label": "QC26 — L'élection québécoise 2026, en données",
	4	+ "domain": "www.qc26.ca",
	5	+ "port": 8200,
	6	+ "health_path": "/healthz",
	7	+ "dir": "~/apps/qc26",
	8	+ "extra_paths": [],
	9	+ "sync_excludes": [
	10	+ "engine/.venv/",
	11	+ "__pycache__/",
	12	+ ".pytest_cache/",
	13	+ ".ruff_cache/",
	14	+ "*.egg-info/",
	15	+ ".git/",
	16	+ "web/node_modules/",
	17	+ "web/.next/",
	18	+ "engine/logs/",
	19	+ "logs/",
	20	+ ".DS_Store",
	21	+ "engine/data/qc26.db",
	22	+ "engine/data/qc26.db-shm",
	23	+ "engine/data/qc26.db-wal",
	24	+ "engine/data/archive/",
	25	+ "engine/data/cache/"
	26	+ ],
	27	+ "requires": {
	28	+ "runtimes": [
	29	+ "pm2",
	30	+ "ngrok",
	31	+ "node",
	32	+ "pnpm",
	33	+ "uv",
	34	+ "uv-python@3.12"
26	35	],
27		− "requires": {
28		− "runtimes": [
29		− "pm2",
30		− "ngrok",
31		− "node",
32		− "pnpm",
33		− "uv",
34		− "uv-python@3.12"
35		− ],
36		− "ram_gb": 4,
37		− "ports": [
38		− 8200,
39		− 8201
40		− ]
41		− },
42		− "ram_mb_observed": 1200,
43		− "size_mb": 120,
44		− "placement": {
45		− "pin": null,
46		− "prefer": "M3U96a",
47		− "avoid": [
48		− "M3U96b",
49		− "M1M32"
50		− ],
51		− "reason": "Monte Carlo numpy + build Next.js : cœurs et RAM ; uv-py3.12 + pnpm présents ; M3U96b réservé hfmarketdata"
52		− },
53		− "processes": [
54		− {
55		− "name": "qc26-engine",
56		− "manager": "pm2",
57		− "script": "{{HOME}}/apps/qc26/engine/.venv/bin/python",
58		− "args": [
59		− "-m",
60		− "uvicorn",
61		− "qc26.main:app",
62		− "--host",
63		− "127.0.0.1",
64		− "--port",
65		− "8201",
66		− "--no-access-log"
67		− ],
68		− "interpreter": null,
69		− "cwd": "{{HOME}}/apps/qc26/engine",
70		− "env": {
71		− "QC26_ENVIRONMENT": "production",
72		− "QC26_PORT": "8201",
73		− "QC26_PUBLIC_URL": "https://www.qc26.ca",
74		− "QC26_ADMIN_TOKEN": "qc26-admin-2026-Kp8vT3nQ7zLw",
75		− "QC26_FIRECRAWL_API_KEY": "fc-8cc44cb683044aee82e8cbad6505a01a",
76		− "QC26_ANTHROPIC_API_KEY": "__SET_AT_DEPLOY__",
77		− "QC26_LLM_MODEL": "claude-opus-5",
78		− "QC26_N_SIMULATIONS": "20000",
79		− "PYTHONUNBUFFERED": "1"
80		− },
81		− "cron_restart": null,
82		− "autorestart": true,
83		− "max_memory_restart": "3G"
84		− },
85		− {
86		− "name": "qc26-web",
87		− "manager": "pm2",
88		− "script": "/opt/homebrew/bin/node",
89		− "args": [
90		− "node_modules/next/dist/bin/next",
91		− "start",
92		− "-p",
93		− "8200",
94		− "-H",
95		− "0.0.0.0"
96		− ],
97		− "interpreter": null,
98		− "cwd": "{{HOME}}/apps/qc26/web",
99		− "env": {
100		− "NODE_ENV": "production",
101		− "QC26_ENGINE_URL": "http://127.0.0.1:8201",
102		− "NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL": "https://www.qc26.ca",
103		− "NEXT_TELEMETRY_DISABLED": "1"
104		− },
105		− "cron_restart": null,
106		− "autorestart": true,
107		− "max_memory_restart": "1500M"
108		− }
	36	+ "ram_gb": 4,
	37	+ "ports": [
	38	+ 8200,
	39	+ 8201
	40	+ ]
	41	+ },
	42	+ "ram_mb_observed": 1200,
	43	+ "size_mb": 120,
	44	+ "placement": {
	45	+ "pin": null,
	46	+ "prefer": "M3U96a",
	47	+ "avoid": [
	48	+ "M3U96b",
	49	+ "M1M32"
109	50	],
110		− "ngrok": {
111		− "name": "qc26-ngrok",
112		− "url": "www.qc26.ca",
113		− "port": 8200
	51	+ "reason": "Monte Carlo numpy + build Next.js : cœurs et RAM ; uv-py3.12 + pnpm présents ; M3U96b réservé hfmarketdata"
	52	+ },
	53	+ "processes": [
	54	+ {
	55	+ "name": "qc26-engine",
	56	+ "manager": "pm2",
	57	+ "script": "{{HOME}}/apps/qc26/engine/.venv/bin/python",
	58	+ "args": [
	59	+ "-m",
	60	+ "uvicorn",
	61	+ "qc26.main:app",
	62	+ "--host",
	63	+ "127.0.0.1",
	64	+ "--port",
	65	+ "8201",
	66	+ "--no-access-log"
	67	+ ],
	68	+ "interpreter": null,
	69	+ "cwd": "{{HOME}}/apps/qc26/engine",
	70	+ "env": {
	71	+ "QC26_ENVIRONMENT": "production",
	72	+ "QC26_PORT": "8201",
	73	+ "QC26_PUBLIC_URL": "https://www.qc26.ca",
	74	+ "QC26_ADMIN_TOKEN": "qc26-admin-2026-Kp8vT3nQ7zLw",
	75	+ "QC26_FIRECRAWL_API_KEY": "fc-8cc44cb683044aee82e8cbad6505a01a",
	76	+ "QC26_ANTHROPIC_API_KEY": "__SET_AT_DEPLOY__",
	77	+ "QC26_LLM_MODEL": "claude-opus-5",
	78	+ "QC26_N_SIMULATIONS": "20000",
	79	+ "PYTHONUNBUFFERED": "1",
	80	+ "QC26_SERPER_API_KEY": "__SET_AT_DEPLOY__",
	81	+ "QC26_TAVILY_API_KEY": "__SET_AT_DEPLOY__"
	82	+ },
	83	+ "cron_restart": null,
	84	+ "autorestart": true,
	85	+ "max_memory_restart": "3G"
114	86	},
115		− "launchd": [],
116		− "env_overrides": {},
117		− "hooks": {
118		− "post_sync": [
119		− "export PATH=\"$HOME/.local/bin:/opt/homebrew/bin:$PATH\"; cd engine && (test -x .venv/bin/python \|\| uv venv --python 3.12 .venv) && uv pip install -q --python .venv/bin/python -e . && echo ' engine deps ok'",
120		− "export PATH=\"/opt/homebrew/bin:$PATH\"; cd web && pnpm install --frozen-lockfile --silent && echo ' web deps ok'",
121		− "export PATH=\"/opt/homebrew/bin:$PATH\"; cd web && QC26_ENGINE_URL=http://127.0.0.1:8201 NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL=https://www.qc26.ca NEXT_TELEMETRY_DISABLED=1 pnpm build 2>&1 \| tail -3 && echo ' web build ok'",
122		− "mkdir -p engine/data/archive/polls engine/data/archive/documents engine/data/archive/live engine/data/cache engine/logs && echo ' data ok'"
123		− ],
124		− "post_start": []
125		− },
126		− "notes": "Après le premier déploiement (2026-09-06), la base et les archives du nœud sont la source de vérité : exclues des syncs suivants."
127		−}
		\ No newline at end of file
	87	+ {
	88	+ "name": "qc26-web",
	89	+ "manager": "pm2",
	90	+ "script": "/opt/homebrew/bin/node",
	91	+ "args": [
	92	+ "node_modules/next/dist/bin/next",
	93	+ "start",
	94	+ "-p",
	95	+ "8200",
	96	+ "-H",
	97	+ "0.0.0.0"
	98	+ ],
	99	+ "interpreter": null,
	100	+ "cwd": "{{HOME}}/apps/qc26/web",
	101	+ "env": {
	102	+ "NODE_ENV": "production",
	103	+ "QC26_ENGINE_URL": "http://127.0.0.1:8201",
	104	+ "NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL": "https://www.qc26.ca",
	105	+ "NEXT_TELEMETRY_DISABLED": "1"
	106	+ },
	107	+ "cron_restart": null,
	108	+ "autorestart": true,
	109	+ "max_memory_restart": "1500M"
	110	+ }
	111	+ ],
	112	+ "ngrok": {
	113	+ "name": "qc26-ngrok",
	114	+ "url": "www.qc26.ca",
	115	+ "port": 8200
	116	+ },
	117	+ "launchd": [],
	118	+ "env_overrides": {},
	119	+ "hooks": {
	120	+ "post_sync": [
	121	+ "export PATH=\"$HOME/.local/bin:/opt/homebrew/bin:$PATH\"; cd engine && (test -x .venv/bin/python \|\| uv venv --python 3.12 .venv) && uv pip install -q --python .venv/bin/python -e . && echo ' engine deps ok'",
	122	+ "export PATH=\"/opt/homebrew/bin:$PATH\"; cd web && pnpm install --frozen-lockfile --silent && echo ' web deps ok'",
	123	+ "export PATH=\"/opt/homebrew/bin:$PATH\"; cd web && QC26_ENGINE_URL=http://127.0.0.1:8201 NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL=https://www.qc26.ca NEXT_TELEMETRY_DISABLED=1 pnpm build 2>&1 \| tail -3 && echo ' web build ok'",
	124	+ "mkdir -p engine/data/archive/polls engine/data/archive/documents engine/data/archive/live engine/data/cache engine/logs && echo ' data ok'"
	125	+ ],
	126	+ "post_start": []
	127	+ },
	128	+ "notes": "Après le premier déploiement (2026-09-06), la base et les archives du nœud sont la source de vérité : exclues des syncs suivants. v2.0 (2026-09-07) : clés Serper/Tavily requises pour la revue de presse ; les tables signaux sont créées au démarrage (create_all)."
	129	+}

modified engine/qc26/api/admin.py +26 −0

		`@@ -110,6 +110,32 @@ def compass_positions(only_missing: bool = True, s: Session = Depends(db)):`
110	110	return positions.compute_positions(s, only_missing=only_missing)
111	111
112	112
	113	+@router.post("/signals/refresh", dependencies=[Depends(require_admin)])
	114	+def signals_refresh(what: str = "all", run: bool = True, s: Session = Depends(db)):
	115	+ """Rafraîchit les signaux (markets \| attention \| fundamentals \| byelections \| news \| gdelt \| all) puis recalcule."""
	116	+ from ..ingest import official
	117	+ from ..signals import attention, byelections, fundamentals, markets, media
	118	+ out = {}
	119	+ parts = [x.strip() for x in what.split(",")] if what != "all" else ["markets", "attention", "fundamentals", "byelections", "news"]
	120	+ if "markets" in parts:
	121	+ out["markets"] = markets.sync_markets(s); s.commit()
	122	+ if "attention" in parts:
	123	+ out["attention"] = attention.sync_attention(s); s.commit()
	124	+ if "fundamentals" in parts:
	125	+ out["fundamentals"] = fundamentals.extract_from_polls(s); s.commit()
	126	+ if "byelections" in parts:
	127	+ out["byelections"] = byelections.sync_by_elections(s); official.apply_by_election_incumbents(s); s.commit()
	128	+ if "news" in parts:
	129	+ out["news"] = media.sync_news(s, classify=True); s.commit()
	130	+ if "gdelt" in parts:
	131	+ out["gdelt"] = media.sync_gdelt(s); s.commit()
	132	+ if run:
	133	+ from ..model.run import run_forecast
	134	+ r = run_forecast(s, trigger="admin:signals")
	135	+ out["run"] = r.id
	136	+ return out
	137	+
	138	+
113	139	@router.get("/review", dependencies=[Depends(require_admin)])
114	140	def review_queue(s: Session = Depends(db)):
115	141	polls = s.scalars(select(Poll).where(Poll.validated == False).order_by(desc(Poll.fieldwork_end))).all() # noqa: E712

modified engine/qc26/api/public.py +74 −4

		`@@ -389,7 +389,11 @@ def poll_document_file(sha: str, s: Session = Depends(db)):`
389	389	doc = s.scalar(select(PollDocument).where(PollDocument.sha256 == sha))
390	390	if not doc:
391	391	raise HTTPException(404)
392		− return FileResponse(doc.path, media_type=doc.content_type or "application/octet-stream", filename=f"qc26-archive-{sha[:12]}{'.pdf' if doc.path.endswith('.pdf') else '.html'}")
	392	+ from ..util import resolve_archive_path
	393	+ fp = resolve_archive_path(doc.path)
	394	+ if not fp or not fp.exists():
	395	+ raise HTTPException(404, "fichier d'archive introuvable")
	396	+ return FileResponse(str(fp), media_type=doc.content_type or "application/octet-stream", filename=f"qc26-archive-{sha[:12]}{'.pdf' if doc.path.endswith('.pdf') else '.html'}")
393	397
394	398
395	399	@router.get("/documents/{doc_id}")
		`@@ -413,7 +417,11 @@ def document_file(doc_id: int, vid: int, s: Session = Depends(db)):`
413	417	v = s.get(DocumentVersion, vid)
414	418	if not v or v.document_id != doc_id:
415	419	raise HTTPException(404)
416		− return FileResponse(v.path, media_type=v.content_type or "application/octet-stream")
	420	+ from ..util import resolve_archive_path
	421	+ fp = resolve_archive_path(v.path)
	422	+ if not fp or not fp.exists():
	423	+ raise HTTPException(404, "fichier d'archive introuvable")
	424	+ return FileResponse(str(fp), media_type=v.content_type or "application/octet-stream")
417	425
418	426
419	427	@router.get("/proposals")
		`@@ -623,7 +631,8 @@ def replay(t: str \| None = None, s: Session = Depends(db)):`
623	631	if not target:
624	632	raise HTTPException(404)
625	633	from pathlib import Path
626		− data = json.loads(Path(target.path).read_text())
	634	+ from ..util import resolve_archive_path
	635	+ data = json.loads((resolve_archive_path(target.path) or Path(target.path)).read_text())
627	636	ridings_by_name = {}
628	637	from ..util import fix_dgeq_dash, norm_name
629	638	for r in s.scalars(select(Riding)).all():
		`@@ -678,7 +687,8 @@ def status(s: Session = Depends(db)):`
678	687	return {"components": {"pollWatcher": "operational" if poll_srcs and all(x.status == "operational" for x in poll_srcs) else ("degraded" if poll_srcs else "ready"),
679	688	"forecastEngine": "operational" if run and run.status == "ok" else "degraded",
680	689	"electionFeed": next((x.status for x in sources if x.id == "eq-live"), "ready"),
681		− "documentWatcher": comp("party-docs"), "officialData": "operational" if all(x.status == "operational" for x in sources if x.kind == "official") else "degraded"},
	690	+ "documentWatcher": comp("party-docs"), "officialData": "operational" if all(x.status == "operational" for x in sources if x.kind == "official") else "degraded",
	691	+ "signals": ("operational" if [x for x in sources if x.kind == "signal"] and all(x.status in ("operational", "ready") for x in sources if x.kind == "signal") else ("degraded" if [x for x in sources if x.kind == "signal"] else "ready"))},
682	692	"sources": [{"id": x.id, "name": x.name, "url": x.url, "tier": x.tier, "kind": x.kind, "status": x.status, "lastCheckedAt": x.last_checked_at.isoformat() if x.last_checked_at else None,
683	693	"lastOkAt": x.last_ok_at.isoformat() if x.last_ok_at else None, "detail": x.detail} for x in sources],
684	694	"jobs": [{"id": j.id, "kind": j.kind, "status": j.status, "startedAt": j.started_at.isoformat(), "finishedAt": j.finished_at.isoformat() if j.finished_at else None,
		`@@ -688,6 +698,13 @@ def status(s: Session = Depends(db)):`
688	698
689	699
690	700	CHANGELOG = [
	701	+ {"version": "2.0.0", "date": "2026-09-07", "title": "Au-delà des sondages : ensemble à quatre composantes",
	702	+ "notes": ["Marchés de prédiction (Polymarket, ~800 k$ de volume) : marchés « plus de sièges », « majorité PQ », tranches de sièges (PQ, CAQ, PLQ), 2e/3e place, historique quotidien archivé. Les 20 000 simulations sont repondérées (ajustement proportionnel itératif) pour que les probabilités de l'ensemble valent 70 % modèle + 30 % marché (15 % pour les tranches, moins liquides). La vue « sondages seuls » reste publiée.",
	703	+ "Fondamentaux : la satisfaction à l'égard du gouvernement (questions de leadership des rapports de sondage, pondérées récence) fixe un prior sur la part du parti sortant (≈ 6 + 0,6 × satisfaction, σ 5,5 pt) mélangé aux sondages avec un poids qui décroît de 20 % à 120 jours du vote jusqu'à 0 le jour J.",
	704	+ "Momentum borné (± 1 pt, somme nulle) : prime au chef (meilleur premier ministre vs intention de vote, κ 0,15), attention publique (pages vues Wikipédia des partis et chef·fes, part 7 j vs 28 j, κ 0,08), ton médiatique (titres de presse classés par LLM, κ 0,5, atténué sous 10 articles).",
	705	+ "Élections partielles depuis 2022 (Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne, Jean-Talon, Terrebonne, Arthabaska, Chicoutimi — résultats officiels DGEQ archivés) : l'excès de swing local observé, net du swing national du jour, corrige le prior de la circonscription (κ 0,35).",
	706	+ "Correction : le·la député·e sortant·e vient désormais de la liste officielle des candidatures (drapeau DGEQ) puis du résultat des partielles, et non plus du seul gagnant 2022 transposé (Jean-Talon, Terrebonne, Arthabaska–L'Érable, Chicoutimi, Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne étaient erronés).",
	707	+ "Publication de chaque composante (summary.components) : sondages seuls, modèle sans marchés, prior fondamentaux, décomposition du momentum, cibles et probabilités atteintes du tempérage, taille d'échantillon effective."]},
691	708	{"version": "1.1.0", "date": "2026-09-06", "title": "Recensement 2021 et swing par segments",
692	709	"notes": ["Recensement de la population 2021 (Statistique Canada, profil des aires de diffusion agrégées + limites) agrégé par intersection surfacique aux 127 circonscriptions : langue maternelle, première langue officielle parlée, immigration, minorités visibles, âge, revenu, tenure, scolarité, chômage.",
693	710	"Excès de swing par langue : ventilations francophones / non-francophones des sondages (90 jours, pondérées récence × √n) comparées à une référence 2022 par régression écologique des résultats sur la part francophone ; appliqué à chaque circonscription selon sa composition (κ = 0,6).",
		`@@ -704,6 +721,59 @@ CHANGELOG = [`
704	721	]
705	722
706	723
	724	+# ---------------------------------------------------------------- signaux (v2)
	725	+@router.get("/signals")
	726	+def signals_all(s: Session = Depends(db)):
	727	+ from ..signals import attention, byelections, fundamentals, markets, media
	728	+ run = _latest_run(s)
	729	+ comp = (run.summary or {}).get("components") if run else None
	730	+ return {"asOf": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(), "runId": run.id if run else None, "components": comp,
	731	+ "markets": {**markets.implied(s), "history": markets.history(s)["series"]},
	732	+ "attention": attention.attention_summary(s), "media": media.media_summary(s),
	733	+ "fundamentals": fundamentals.fundamentals_summary(s), "byElections": byelections.byelection_summary(s)}
	734	+
	735	+
	736	+@router.get("/signals/markets")
	737	+def signals_markets(days: int = 120, s: Session = Depends(db)):
	738	+ from ..signals import markets
	739	+ return {**markets.implied(s), "history": markets.history(s, days)["series"]}
	740	+
	741	+
	742	+@router.get("/signals/attention")
	743	+def signals_attention(s: Session = Depends(db)):
	744	+ from ..signals import attention
	745	+ return attention.attention_summary(s)
	746	+
	747	+
	748	+@router.get("/signals/media")
	749	+def signals_media(window: int = 7, limit: int = 60, s: Session = Depends(db)):
	750	+ from ..signals import media
	751	+ d = media.media_summary(s, window=window)
	752	+ d["latest"] = d["latest"][:limit]
	753	+ return d
	754	+
	755	+
	756	+@router.get("/signals/fundamentals")
	757	+def signals_fundamentals(s: Session = Depends(db)):
	758	+ from ..signals import fundamentals
	759	+ return fundamentals.fundamentals_summary(s)
	760	+
	761	+
	762	+@router.get("/signals/byelections")
	763	+def signals_byelections(s: Session = Depends(db)):
	764	+ from ..signals import byelections
	765	+ return byelections.byelection_summary(s)
	766	+
	767	+
	768	+@router.get("/forecast/components")
	769	+def forecast_components(s: Session = Depends(db)):
	770	+ run = _latest_run(s)
	771	+ if not run:
	772	+ raise HTTPException(404)
	773	+ return {"runId": run.id, "modelVersion": run.model_version, "completedAt": run.completed_at.isoformat() if run.completed_at else None,
	774	+ "components": (run.summary or {}).get("components"), "parties": run.summary.get("parties"), "pMinority": run.summary.get("p_minority")}
	775	+
	776	+
707	777	@router.get("/changelog")
708	778	def changelog(s: Session = Depends(db)):
709	779	runs = s.scalars(select(ForecastRun).where(ForecastRun.kind == "forecast", ForecastRun.status == "ok").order_by(desc(ForecastRun.id)).limit(30)).all()

modified engine/qc26/config.py +32 −2

		`@@ -52,7 +52,7 @@ class Settings(BaseSettings):`
52	52	# ils dérivent de la liste officielle des circonscriptions (127 en 2026 → 64).
53	53
54	54	# --- Modèle ---
55		− model_version: str = "1.1.0"
	55	+ model_version: str = "2.0.0"
56	56	n_simulations: int = 20000
57	57	random_seed: int \| None = None
58	58	recency_halflife_days: float = 14.0 # hors campagne
		`@@ -68,9 +68,39 @@ class Settings(BaseSettings):`
68	68	riding_error_sd: float = 0.20 # logit
69	69	incumbent_retirement_penalty: float = 0.06 # logit (~1,3 pp)
70	70
	71	+ # --- Ensemble v2 : au-delà des sondages ---
	72	+ # Fondamentaux (satisfaction du gouvernement → part du parti sortant) : poids maximal loin du
	73	+ # scrutin, décroissant linéairement vers 0 le jour du vote (horizon en jours).
	74	+ fundamentals_weight_max: float = 0.20
	75	+ fundamentals_horizon_days: int = 120
	76	+ fundamentals_alpha: float = 6.0 # part sortant ≈ α + β·satisfaction (%), calibration indicative QC 2003-2022
	77	+ fundamentals_beta: float = 0.60
	78	+ fundamentals_sd_pp: float = 5.5
	79	+ # Momentum : leadership (meilleur PM vs vote), attention (Wikipédia), ton médiatique → nudge borné (pp)
	80	+ momentum_leader_kappa: float = 0.15
	81	+ momentum_attention_kappa: float = 0.08 # pp de vote par pp de variation de la part d'attention (7 j vs 28 j)
	82	+ momentum_media_kappa: float = 0.5 # pp de vote par unité de ton médiatique (−1…+1), atténué sous 10 articles
	83	+ momentum_max_pp: float = 1.0
	84	+ # Marchés de prédiction : tempérage des simulations (pondération itérative) vers les prix implicites
	85	+ markets_weight: float = 0.30
	86	+ markets_min_volume: float = 5000.0
	87	+ markets_max_age_hours: int = 72
	88	+ # Partielles : ajustement des priors de circonscription du swing observé (rétréci)
	89	+ byelection_kappa: float = 0.35
	90	+
71	91	# --- Sources / connecteurs ---
72	92	firecrawl_api_key: str = ""
73	93	anthropic_api_key: str = ""
	94	+ serper_api_key: str = ""
	95	+ tavily_api_key: str = ""
	96	+ polymarket_gamma: str = "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com"
	97	+ polymarket_clob: str = "https://clob.polymarket.com"
	98	+ polymarket_event_slugs: str = ("quebec-general-election-winner,of-seats-won-by-pq-in-the-2026-quebec-general-election,"
	99	+ "of-seats-won-by-caq-in-the-2026-quebec-general-election,of-seats-won-by-plq-in-the-2026-quebec-general-election,"
	100	+ "will-the-pq-win-a-majority-in-the-2026-quebec-general-election,quebec-general-election-second-place-20260825152158,"
	101	+ "quebec-general-election-third-place-20260825152158")
	102	+ signals_markets_minutes: int = 30
	103	+ signals_media_hours: int = 3
74	104	llm_model: str = "claude-opus-5"
75	105	llm_enabled: bool = True
76	106	user_agent: str = (
		`@@ -111,5 +141,5 @@ class Settings(BaseSettings):`
111	141
112	142	settings = Settings()
113	143	for _d in (settings.archive_dir / "polls", settings.archive_dir / "documents",
114		− settings.archive_dir / "live", settings.cache_dir):
	144	+ settings.archive_dir / "live", settings.archive_dir / "partielles", settings.cache_dir):
115	145	_d.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)

modified engine/qc26/connectors/parties/documents.py +8 −5

		`@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ from sqlalchemy.orm import Session`
21	21	from ... import llm
22	22	from ...config import settings
23	23	from ...db import (DocumentChunk, DocumentVersion, IngestionJob, Party, PartyDocument, PolicyProposal, Source, audit, utcnow)
24		−from ...util import fetch_bytes, html_to_text, http, parse_fr_date, pdf_pages_text, sha256_bytes
	24	+from ...util import fetch_bytes, html_to_text, http, parse_fr_date, pdf_pages_text, resolve_archive_path, sha256_bytes
25	25	from ..polls.registry import firecrawl_map, firecrawl_scrape
26	26
27	27	log = logging.getLogger("qc26.parties.docs")
		`@@ -232,8 +232,9 @@ def fetch_version(s: Session, doc: PartyDocument) -> DocumentVersion \| None:`
232	232
233	233	def diff_versions(old: DocumentVersion, new: DocumentVersion) -> dict:
234	234	import difflib
235		− a = Path(old.text_path).read_text().splitlines() if old.text_path and Path(old.text_path).exists() else []
236		− b = Path(new.text_path).read_text().splitlines() if new.text_path and Path(new.text_path).exists() else []
	235	+ _pa, _pb = resolve_archive_path(old.text_path), resolve_archive_path(new.text_path)
	236	+ a = _pa.read_text().splitlines() if _pa and _pa.exists() else []
	237	+ b = _pb.read_text().splitlines() if _pb and _pb.exists() else []
237	238	sm = difflib.SequenceMatcher(None, a, b, autojunk=False)
238	239	added, removed = [], []
239	240	for tag, i1, i2, j1, j2 in sm.get_opcodes():
		`@@ -276,7 +277,8 @@ Si l'extrait ne contient aucune proposition (page de navigation, formulaire, bio`
276	277
277	278
278	279	def analyze_version(s: Session, doc: PartyDocument, v: DocumentVersion, max_chunks: int = 12) -> int:
279		− text = Path(v.text_path).read_text() if v.text_path else ""
	280	+ _tp = resolve_archive_path(v.text_path)
	281	+ text = _tp.read_text() if _tp and _tp.exists() else ""
280	282	if len(text.strip()) < 300:
281	283	doc.status = "ignored"
282	284	v.analyzed_at = utcnow()
		`@@ -365,7 +367,8 @@ def sync_party(s: Session, party_id: str, max_docs: int = 80, analyze: bool = Tr`
365	367	s.commit()
366	368	if not doc.title or doc.title == url.rsplit("/", 1)[-1][:200]:
367	369	# titre depuis le texte (première ligne significative)
368		− txt = Path(v.text_path).read_text()[:2000] if v.text_path else ""
	370	+ _tp2 = resolve_archive_path(v.text_path)
	371	+ txt = _tp2.read_text()[:2000] if _tp2 and _tp2.exists() else ""
369	372	first = next((l.strip() for l in txt.splitlines() if len(l.strip()) > 12), None)
370	373	if first:
371	374	doc.title = first[:200]

modified engine/qc26/connectors/polls/base.py +4 −2

		`@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ from ... import llm`
20	20	from ...config import settings
21	21	from ...db import Poll, PollDocument, PollResult, PollSubsample, Pollster, audit, utcnow
22	22	from ...parties import PARTY_IDS, party_id_from_label
23		−from ...util import fetch_bytes, html_to_text, pdf_pages_text, pdf_tables_text, sha256_bytes
	23	+from ...util import fetch_bytes, html_to_text, pdf_pages_text, pdf_tables_text, resolve_archive_path, sha256_bytes
24	24
25	25	log = logging.getLogger("qc26.polls.connector")
26	26
		`@@ -95,7 +95,9 @@ class PollConnector:`
95	95	return doc
96	96
97	97	def extract_text(self, doc: PollDocument) -> tuple[list[str], list[tuple[int, str]]]:
98		− path = Path(doc.path)
	98	+ path = resolve_archive_path(doc.path) or Path(doc.path)
	99	+ if not path.exists():
	100	+ raise FileNotFoundError(f"archive absente : {doc.path}")
99	101	if path.suffix == ".pdf":
100	102	pages = pdf_pages_text(path)
101	103	tables = pdf_tables_text(path)

modified engine/qc26/db.py +135 −26

		`@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ from contextlib import contextmanager`
11	11	from datetime import date, datetime, timezone
12	12	from typing import Any, Iterator
13	13
14		−from sqlalchemy import (JSON, Boolean, Date, DateTime, Float, ForeignKey, Integer, String, Text,
	14	+from sqlalchemy import (JSON, Boolean, Date, DateTime, Float, ForeignKey, Integer, String, Text, TypeDecorator,
15	15	UniqueConstraint, create_engine, event, text)
16	16	from sqlalchemy.orm import DeclarativeBase, Mapped, Session, mapped_column, relationship, sessionmaker
17	17
		`@@ -22,6 +22,23 @@ def utcnow() -> datetime:`
22	22	return datetime.now(timezone.utc)
23	23
24	24
	25	+class TZDateTime(TypeDecorator):
	26	+ """SQLite ne conserve pas le fuseau : on stocke en UTC naïf et on relit en UTC explicite, pour que
	27	+ `.isoformat()` porte toujours « +00:00 » (sinon le navigateur interprète l'heure comme locale)."""
	28	+ impl = DateTime(timezone=True)
	29	+ cache_ok = True
	30	+
	31	+ def process_bind_param(self, value, dialect):
	32	+ if value is not None and value.tzinfo is not None:
	33	+ return value.astimezone(timezone.utc).replace(tzinfo=None)
	34	+ return value
	35	+
	36	+ def process_result_value(self, value, dialect):
	37	+ if value is not None and value.tzinfo is None:
	38	+ return value.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc)
	39	+ return value
	40	+
	41	+
25	42	class Base(DeclarativeBase):
26	43	pass
27	44
		`@@ -47,7 +64,7 @@ class Party(Base):`
47	64	vote_2022: Mapped[float \| None] = mapped_column(Float)
48	65	order: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, default=0)
49	66	color_note: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(Text)
50		− updated_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=utcnow, onupdate=utcnow)
	67	+ updated_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow, onupdate=utcnow)
51	68
52	69
53	70	class Region(Base):
		`@@ -115,7 +132,7 @@ class RidingDemographics(Base):`
115	132	ada_count: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, default=0)
116	133	coverage: Mapped[float \| None] = mapped_column(Float) # part de la population de la circ. couverte par des ADA
117	134	source: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(300))
118		− computed_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=utcnow)
	135	+ computed_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow)
119	136
120	137
121	138	class HistoricalResult(Base):
		`@@ -149,8 +166,8 @@ class Candidate(Base):`
149	166	incumbent: Mapped[bool] = mapped_column(Boolean, default=False)
150	167	status: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(8)) # CPA (confirmé parti) / CIA (indépendant) …
151	168	state: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(8))
152		− dgeq_updated_at: Mapped[datetime \| None] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True))
153		− fetched_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=utcnow)
	169	+ dgeq_updated_at: Mapped[datetime \| None] = mapped_column(TZDateTime)
	170	+ fetched_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow)
154	171
155	172
156	173	# --------------------------------------------------------------------- sondages
		`@@ -175,7 +192,7 @@ class PollDocument(Base):`
175	192	content_type: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(80))
176	193	bytes: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer)
177	194	pages: Mapped[int \| None] = mapped_column(Integer)
178		− downloaded_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=utcnow)
	195	+ downloaded_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow)
179	196	text_path: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(300))
180	197	http_last_modified: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(80))
181	198	pollster_id: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(32))
		`@@ -204,8 +221,8 @@ class Poll(Base):`
204	221	validation_notes: Mapped[dict \| list \| None] = mapped_column(JSON)
205	222	undecided: Mapped[float \| None] = mapped_column(Float)
206	223	notes: Mapped[dict \| list \| None] = mapped_column(JSON)
207		− ingested_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=utcnow)
208		− updated_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=utcnow, onupdate=utcnow)
	224	+ ingested_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow)
	225	+ updated_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow, onupdate=utcnow)
209	226	excluded: Mapped[bool] = mapped_column(Boolean, default=False)
210	227	exclusion_reason: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(200))
211	228	results: Mapped[list["PollResult"]] = relationship(cascade="all, delete-orphan", lazy="selectin")
		`@@ -250,8 +267,8 @@ class PartyDocument(Base):`
250	267	url: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(600), unique=True)
251	268	doc_type: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(32)) # plateforme / cadre_financier / communique / page / engagement
252	269	published_date: Mapped[date \| None] = mapped_column(Date)
253		− discovered_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=utcnow)
254		− last_checked_at: Mapped[datetime \| None] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True))
	270	+ discovered_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow)
	271	+ last_checked_at: Mapped[datetime \| None] = mapped_column(TZDateTime)
255	272	current_version_id: Mapped[int \| None] = mapped_column(Integer)
256	273	proposals_count: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, default=0)
257	274	status: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(16), default="new") # new / analyzed / failed / ignored
		`@@ -268,8 +285,8 @@ class DocumentVersion(Base):`
268	285	content_type: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(80))
269	286	bytes: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer)
270	287	pages: Mapped[int \| None] = mapped_column(Integer)
271		− fetched_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=utcnow)
272		− analyzed_at: Mapped[datetime \| None] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True))
	288	+ fetched_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow)
	289	+ analyzed_at: Mapped[datetime \| None] = mapped_column(TZDateTime)
273	290	diff_summary: Mapped[dict \| None] = mapped_column(JSON)
274	291
275	292
		`@@ -298,7 +315,7 @@ class PolicyProposal(Base):`
298	315	quote: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(Text)
299	316	confidence: Mapped[float] = mapped_column(Float)
300	317	status: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(16), default="accepted") # accepted / review / rejected
301		− extracted_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=utcnow)
	318	+ extracted_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow)
302	319
303	320
304	321	class CompassQuestion(Base):
		`@@ -324,7 +341,7 @@ class PartyPosition(Base):`
324	341	proposal_ids: Mapped[list \| None] = mapped_column(JSON)
325	342	rationale: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(Text)
326	343	status: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(16), default="pending") # pending / extracted / review / manual
327		− updated_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=utcnow, onupdate=utcnow)
	344	+ updated_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow, onupdate=utcnow)
328	345
329	346
330	347	# -------------------------------------------------------------------- forecast
		`@@ -334,8 +351,8 @@ class ForecastRun(Base):`
334	351	model_version: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(16))
335	352	kind: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(16), default="forecast") # forecast / nowcast
336	353	data_cutoff: Mapped[date] = mapped_column(Date)
337		− started_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=utcnow)
338		− completed_at: Mapped[datetime \| None] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True))
	354	+ started_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow)
	355	+ completed_at: Mapped[datetime \| None] = mapped_column(TZDateTime)
339	356	poll_count: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, default=0)
340	357	n_simulations: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, default=0)
341	358	seed: Mapped[int \| None] = mapped_column(Integer)
		`@@ -427,7 +444,7 @@ class PollWeight(Base):`
427	444	class LiveSnapshot(Base):
428	445	__tablename__ = "live_snapshots"
429	446	id: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, primary_key=True, autoincrement=True)
430		− fetched_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=utcnow, index=True)
	447	+ fetched_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow, index=True)
431	448	source_updated_at: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(40))
432	449	sha256: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(64), index=True)
433	450	path: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(300))
		`@@ -445,7 +462,7 @@ class LiveSnapshot(Base):`
445	462	class LiveRidingState(Base):
446	463	__tablename__ = "live_riding_states"
447	464	riding_code: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, primary_key=True)
448		− updated_at: Mapped[datetime \| None] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True))
	465	+ updated_at: Mapped[datetime \| None] = mapped_column(TZDateTime)
449	466	source_updated_at: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(40))
450	467	status: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(16), default="NOT_STARTED") # NOT_STARTED/REPORTING/LEADING/PROJECTED/ELECTED/FINAL
451	468	bureaux_completes: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, default=0)
		`@@ -466,7 +483,7 @@ class LiveRidingState(Base):`
466	483	class ElectionEvent(Base):
467	484	__tablename__ = "election_events"
468	485	id: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, primary_key=True, autoincrement=True)
469		− ts: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=utcnow, index=True)
	486	+ ts: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow, index=True)
470	487	kind: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(32), index=True) # lead_change / riding_complete / seats_update / reporting / first_results / final
471	488	riding_code: Mapped[int \| None] = mapped_column(Integer)
472	489	party_id: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(8))
		`@@ -478,12 +495,104 @@ class ElectionEvent(Base):`
478	495	class NowcastRun(Base):
479	496	__tablename__ = "nowcast_runs"
480	497	id: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, primary_key=True, autoincrement=True)
481		− ts: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=utcnow, index=True)
	498	+ ts: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow, index=True)
482	499	snapshot_id: Mapped[int \| None] = mapped_column(Integer)
483	500	ridings_reporting: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer)
484	501	summary: Mapped[dict] = mapped_column(JSON) # par parti : élus, en avance, total, p_majority, seats mean/ci
485	502
486	503
	504	+# ------------------------------------------------------- signaux alternatifs (v2)
	505	+class Signal(Base):
	506	+ """Série temporelle d'un signal « au-delà des sondages » : marchés de prédiction, attention
	507	+ (Wikipédia), médias (volume / ton), fondamentaux tirés des questions de leadership, partielles.
	508	+ Une ligne = une observation datée, avec sa provenance (URL) et ses métadonnées."""
	509	+ __tablename__ = "signals"
	510	+ __table_args__ = (UniqueConstraint("source", "key", "party_id", "date"),)
	511	+ id: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, primary_key=True, autoincrement=True)
	512	+ source: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(32), index=True) # polymarket / wikipedia / gdelt / serper-news / polls-leadership / dgeq-partielles
	513	+ key: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(64), index=True) # ex. p_most_seats / pageviews / tone / best_pm / satisfaction
	514	+ party_id: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(8), index=True)
	515	+ date: Mapped[date] = mapped_column(Date, index=True)
	516	+ value: Mapped[float] = mapped_column(Float)
	517	+ n: Mapped[int \| None] = mapped_column(Integer)
	518	+ meta: Mapped[dict \| list \| None] = mapped_column(JSON)
	519	+ url: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(600))
	520	+ fetched_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow, onupdate=utcnow)
	521	+
	522	+
	523	+class Market(Base):
	524	+ """Marché de prédiction (Polymarket) rattaché à l'élection : question, type, parti, tranche."""
	525	+ __tablename__ = "markets"
	526	+ id: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(32), primary_key=True) # id Polymarket
	527	+ source: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(24), default="polymarket")
	528	+ event_slug: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(160), index=True)
	529	+ event_title: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(200))
	530	+ question: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(300))
	531	+ kind: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(24), index=True) # most_seats / majority / seats_band / place
	532	+ party_id: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(8), index=True)
	533	+ band_lo: Mapped[int \| None] = mapped_column(Integer)
	534	+ band_hi: Mapped[int \| None] = mapped_column(Integer)
	535	+ place: Mapped[int \| None] = mapped_column(Integer)
	536	+ condition_id: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(80))
	537	+ token_id: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(100))
	538	+ volume: Mapped[float \| None] = mapped_column(Float)
	539	+ liquidity: Mapped[float \| None] = mapped_column(Float)
	540	+ end_date: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(40))
	541	+ url: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(300))
	542	+ last_price: Mapped[float \| None] = mapped_column(Float)
	543	+ best_bid: Mapped[float \| None] = mapped_column(Float)
	544	+ best_ask: Mapped[float \| None] = mapped_column(Float)
	545	+ active: Mapped[bool] = mapped_column(Boolean, default=True)
	546	+ updated_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow, onupdate=utcnow)
	547	+
	548	+
	549	+class MarketPrice(Base):
	550	+ __tablename__ = "market_prices"
	551	+ __table_args__ = (UniqueConstraint("market_id", "ts"),)
	552	+ id: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, primary_key=True, autoincrement=True)
	553	+ market_id: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(ForeignKey("markets.id"), index=True)
	554	+ ts: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, index=True)
	555	+ price: Mapped[float] = mapped_column(Float) # prix « Oui » (0–1)
	556	+
	557	+
	558	+class MediaItem(Base):
	559	+ """Article de presse repéré (titre, média, date) et classé par le LLM : partis mentionnés et ton."""
	560	+ __tablename__ = "media_items"
	561	+ id: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, primary_key=True, autoincrement=True)
	562	+ url: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(600), unique=True)
	563	+ title: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(400))
	564	+ domain: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(120), index=True)
	565	+ snippet: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(Text)
	566	+ published_at: Mapped[datetime \| None] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, index=True)
	567	+ fetched_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow)
	568	+ query: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(200))
	569	+ source: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(24), default="serper-news")
	570	+ parties: Mapped[dict \| None] = mapped_column(JSON) # {party_id: tone −1…+1}
	571	+ topic: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(48))
	572	+ summary: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(300))
	573	+ confidence: Mapped[float \| None] = mapped_column(Float)
	574	+ classified: Mapped[bool] = mapped_column(Boolean, default=False, index=True)
	575	+
	576	+
	577	+class ByElection(Base):
	578	+ """Élection partielle provinciale depuis 2022 (résultats officiels DGEQ) comparée au résultat
	579	+ de 2022 dans la même circonscription : mesure directe du swing en conditions réelles."""
	580	+ __tablename__ = "by_elections"
	581	+ id: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(32), primary_key=True) # ex. 2025-03-17-542
	582	+ date: Mapped[date] = mapped_column(Date, index=True)
	583	+ dgeq_code: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer)
	584	+ riding_name: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(80))
	585	+ url: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(300))
	586	+ sha256: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(64))
	587	+ path: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(300))
	588	+ results: Mapped[list \| None] = mapped_column(JSON) # [{candidate, party_label, party_id, votes, share}]
	589	+ previous: Mapped[dict \| None] = mapped_column(JSON) # {party_id: share 2022} (résultat général précédent, mêmes limites)
	590	+ turnout: Mapped[float \| None] = mapped_column(Float)
	591	+ winner_party_id: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(8))
	592	+ status: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(16), default="new")
	593	+ fetched_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow, onupdate=utcnow)
	594	+
	595	+
487	596	# ------------------------------------------------------------------ exploitation
488	597	class Source(Base):
489	598	__tablename__ = "sources"
		`@@ -492,8 +601,8 @@ class Source(Base):`
492	601	url: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(600))
493	602	tier: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, default=1) # 1 officiel, 2 firme, 3 média, 5 index
494	603	kind: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(32))
495		− last_checked_at: Mapped[datetime \| None] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True))
496		− last_ok_at: Mapped[datetime \| None] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True))
	604	+ last_checked_at: Mapped[datetime \| None] = mapped_column(TZDateTime)
	605	+ last_ok_at: Mapped[datetime \| None] = mapped_column(TZDateTime)
497	606	status: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(16), default="unknown") # operational / degraded / down / ready
498	607	detail: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(String(300))
499	608
		`@@ -502,8 +611,8 @@ class IngestionJob(Base):`
502	611	__tablename__ = "ingestion_jobs"
503	612	id: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, primary_key=True, autoincrement=True)
504	613	kind: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(48), index=True)
505		− started_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=utcnow)
506		− finished_at: Mapped[datetime \| None] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True))
	614	+ started_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow)
	615	+ finished_at: Mapped[datetime \| None] = mapped_column(TZDateTime)
507	616	status: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(16), default="running")
508	617	items: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, default=0)
509	618	message: Mapped[str \| None] = mapped_column(Text)
		`@@ -513,7 +622,7 @@ class IngestionJob(Base):`
513	622	class AuditLog(Base):
514	623	__tablename__ = "audit_logs"
515	624	id: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, primary_key=True, autoincrement=True)
516		− ts: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=utcnow, index=True)
	625	+ ts: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow, index=True)
517	626	actor: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(64)) # system:<job> / admin
518	627	entity: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(48))
519	628	entity_id: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(80))
		`@@ -537,7 +646,7 @@ class Setting(Base):`
537	646	__tablename__ = "settings"
538	647	key: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(64), primary_key=True)
539	648	value: Mapped[dict \| list \| str \| None] = mapped_column(JSON)
540		− updated_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=utcnow, onupdate=utcnow)
	649	+ updated_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(TZDateTime, default=utcnow, onupdate=utcnow)
541	650
542	651
543	652	# -------------------------------------------------------------------- moteur

modified engine/qc26/ingest/official.py +31 −0

		`@@ -224,16 +224,47 @@ def sync_candidates(s: Session, refresh: bool = True) -> int:`
224	224	counts[pid] += 1
225	225	if c.get("depute_sortant") == "O":
226	226	incumbents_running[code] = True
	227	+ # la liste officielle des candidatures est la vérité sur le·la député·e sortant·e :
	228	+ # elle corrige le gagnant 2022 transposé quand une partielle a changé la donne (Jean-Talon, Terrebonne, Arthabaska, Chicoutimi…)
	229	+ rd = ridings[code]
	230	+ if pid and (rd.incumbent_party_id != pid or not rd.incumbent_name):
	231	+ rd.incumbent_party_id = pid
	232	+ rd.incumbent_name = f"{c.get('prenom_bulletin_vote') or ''} {c.get('nom_bulletin_vote') or ''}".strip()
227	233	for pid, n in counts.items():
228	234	p = s.get(Party, pid)
229	235	if p:
230	236	p.candidates_count = n
231	237	for code, rd in ridings.items():
232	238	rd.incumbent_running = incumbents_running.get(code, False)
	239	+ apply_by_election_incumbents(s, ridings)
233	240	_mark_source(s, "eq-candidates", "Élections Québec — candidatures officielles", settings.eq_candidates_url, True)
234	241	return len(data)
235	242
236	243
	244	+def apply_by_election_incumbents(s: Session, ridings: dict \| None = None) -> int:
	245	+ """Sortant·e des circonscriptions ayant connu une partielle depuis 2022 : le·la gagnant·e de la partielle
	246	+ (résultat officiel DGEQ archivé), sauf si la liste des candidatures désigne déjà un·e sortant·e."""
	247	+ from ..db import ByElection, Candidate
	248	+ ridings = ridings or {r.code: r for r in s.scalars(select(Riding)).all()}
	249	+ by_name = {norm_name(r.name): r for r in ridings.values()}
	250	+ n = 0
	251	+ for b in s.scalars(select(ByElection).where(ByElection.status == "ok").order_by(ByElection.date)).all():
	252	+ if not b.riding_name or not b.results:
	253	+ continue
	254	+ key = norm_name(b.riding_name)
	255	+ rd = by_name.get(key) or next((r for k, r in by_name.items() if k.startswith(key)), None)
	256	+ if not rd:
	257	+ continue
	258	+ has_official = s.scalar(select(Candidate).where(Candidate.riding_code == rd.code, Candidate.incumbent == True).limit(1)) # noqa: E712
	259	+ if has_official:
	260	+ continue
	261	+ win = max(b.results, key=lambda r: r["votes"])
	262	+ if win.get("party_id") and rd.incumbent_party_id != win["party_id"]:
	263	+ rd.incumbent_party_id, rd.incumbent_name = win["party_id"], win.get("candidate")
	264	+ n += 1
	265	+ return n
	266	+
	267	+
237	268	# ------------------------------------------------------------------ résultats
238	269	def _load_results_json(path_dir: Path, url_dir: str, refresh: bool) -> dict:
239	270	raw = _download_or_local(f"{url_dir}/resultats.json", path_dir / "resultats.json", refresh)

modified engine/qc26/main.py +7 −0

		`@@ -44,6 +44,13 @@ def bootstrap() -> None:`
44	44	run_forecast(s, trigger="reference_polls_2022")
45	45	except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
46	46	log.warning("sondages de référence 2022 : %s", e)
	47	+ try:
	48	+ from .db import Signal
	49	+ from .signals import fundamentals
	50	+ if not s.scalar(select(Signal).where(Signal.source == "polls-leadership").limit(1)):
	51	+ fundamentals.extract_from_polls(s) # dérivé des sondages déjà en base, sans réseau
	52	+ except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
	53	+ log.warning("fondamentaux : %s", e)
47	54	if not s.scalar(select(ForecastRun).where(ForecastRun.status == "ok").limit(1)):
48	55	from .model.run import run_forecast
49	56	try:

added engine/qc26/model/ensemble.py +258 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,258 @@`
	1	+"""Ensemble QC26 (modèle 2.0) — au-delà des sondages.
	2	+
	3	+Quatre composantes, toutes optionnelles (désactivées si le signal est absent de la base), toutes
	4	+paramétrées dans `config.py` et toutes publiées séparément dans le run (« Sondages seuls »
	5	+vs « Ensemble QC26 ») :
	6	+
	7	+1. Fondamentaux — prior structurel sur la part du parti sortant : part ≈ α + β·satisfaction
	8	+ (satisfaction à l'égard du gouvernement, pondérée récence, tirée des rapports de sondage). Mélangé
	9	+ à l'état latent des sondages dans l'espace logit avec un poids w_f qui décroît linéairement des
	10	+ `fundamentals_horizon_days` jours précédant le scrutin jusqu'à 0 le jour du vote.
	11	+2. Momentum — nudge additif borné (± `momentum_max_pp`) sur la moyenne du vote au jour du vote :
	12	+ prime au chef (meilleur PM vs intention de vote), attention (Wikipédia, 7 j vs 28 j), ton médiatique
	13	+ (titres classés). Recentré à somme nulle entre les cinq partis.
	14	+3. Marchés de prédiction — tempérage : les simulations Monte Carlo sont repondérées
	15	+ (ajustement proportionnel itératif) pour que les probabilités « plus de sièges », « majorité » et les
	16	+ tranches de sièges implicites de l'ensemble valent (1 − w_m)·modèle + w_m·marché. Toute la
	17	+ distribution (sièges, circonscriptions) reste cohérente : ce sont les mêmes simulations, pesées.
	18	+4. Partielles — excès de swing local observé lors d'une partielle (net du swing national à la même
	19	+ date) appliqué, rétréci (κ), au prior de la circonscription concernée.
	20	+"""
	21	+from __future__ import annotations
	22	+
	23	+import math
	24	+from dataclasses import dataclass, field
	25	+from datetime import date
	26	+
	27	+import numpy as np
	28	+
	29	+from ..config import settings
	30	+from ..parties import PARTY_IDS
	31	+from .aggregate import PARTIES_ALL
	32	+
	33	+
	34	+def _logit(p: float) -> float:
	35	+ p = min(max(p, 0.002), 0.998)
	36	+ return math.log(p / (1 - p))
	37	+
	38	+
	39	+def _clip(x: float, lo: float, hi: float) -> float:
	40	+ return max(lo, min(hi, x))
	41	+
	42	+
	43	+# --------------------------------------------------------------- pondérations
	44	+def wmean(x: np.ndarray, w: np.ndarray) -> float:
	45	+ return float(np.average(x, weights=w))
	46	+
	47	+
	48	+def wquantile(x: np.ndarray, w: np.ndarray, q: float) -> float:
	49	+ idx = np.argsort(x)
	50	+ xs, ws = x[idx], w[idx]
	51	+ cw = np.cumsum(ws)
	52	+ cw = cw / cw[-1]
	53	+ return float(xs[min(len(xs) - 1, int(np.searchsorted(cw, q, side="left")))])
	54	+
	55	+
	56	+def whist(x: np.ndarray, w: np.ndarray, minlength: int) -> list[float]:
	57	+ h = np.bincount(x, weights=w, minlength=minlength)
	58	+ return [round(float(v), 2) for v in h]
	59	+
	60	+
	61	+def ess(w: np.ndarray) -> float:
	62	+ return float(w.sum() 2 / (w 2).sum())
	63	+
	64	+
	65	+# ------------------------------------------------------------- fondamentaux
	66	+def time_weight(days_left: int) -> float:
	67	+ if settings.fundamentals_horizon_days <= 0:
	68	+ return 0.0
	69	+ return settings.fundamentals_weight_max * _clip(days_left / settings.fundamentals_horizon_days, 0.0, 1.0)
	70	+
	71	+
	72	+def fundamentals_blend(mu_logit: np.ndarray, var_logit: np.ndarray, last_pct: np.ndarray, fund: dict \| None, days_left: int, incumbent: str = "caq") -> tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray, dict]:
	73	+ """Mélange logit de l'état latent (sondages) et du prior fondamentaux. Retourne (mu, var, détail)."""
	74	+ detail = {"enabled": False, "weight": 0.0}
	75	+ if not fund or not fund.get("enabled") or fund.get("satisfaction") is None or incumbent not in PARTIES_ALL:
	76	+ return mu_logit, var_logit, detail
	77	+ w = time_weight(days_left)
	78	+ sat = float(fund["satisfaction"])
	79	+ inc_prior = _clip(settings.fundamentals_alpha + settings.fundamentals_beta * sat, 5.0, 60.0)
	80	+ j_inc = PARTIES_ALL.index(incumbent)
	81	+ polls = last_pct.copy() # % somme 100
	82	+ # les autres partis se partagent le reste au prorata des sondages (le prior n'informe que le sortant)
	83	+ rest_polls = polls.sum() - polls[j_inc]
	84	+ rest_prior = 100.0 - inc_prior
	85	+ prior = polls * (rest_prior / rest_polls) if rest_polls > 0 else polls.copy()
	86	+ prior[j_inc] = inc_prior
	87	+ prior_logit = np.array([_logit(p / 100.0) for p in prior])
	88	+ sd_pp = settings.fundamentals_sd_pp
	89	+ prior_var_logit = np.array([(sd_pp / 100.0) ** 2 / max((p / 100.0) * (1 - p / 100.0), 1e-3) ** 2 for p in prior])
	90	+ mu = (1 - w) * mu_logit + w * prior_logit
	91	+ var = var_logit + (w ** 2) * prior_var_logit
	92	+ # traduction en points de % (pour l'affichage) : moyenne après mélange vs avant
	93	+ def to_pct(z: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
	94	+ p = 1 / (1 + np.exp(-z))
	95	+ return 100.0 * p / p.sum()
	96	+ before, after = to_pct(mu_logit), to_pct(mu)
	97	+ detail = {"enabled": True, "weight": round(w, 3), "daysLeft": days_left, "satisfaction": round(sat, 1), "satisfactionPolls": fund.get("satisfactionPolls"),
	98	+ "incumbent": incumbent, "incumbentPrior": round(inc_prior, 1), "prior": {p: round(float(v), 1) for p, v in zip(PARTIES_ALL, prior)},
	99	+ "shiftPp": {p: round(float(a - b), 2) for p, a, b in zip(PARTIES_ALL, after, before)},
	100	+ "params": {"alpha": settings.fundamentals_alpha, "beta": settings.fundamentals_beta, "sdPp": sd_pp, "weightMax": settings.fundamentals_weight_max, "horizonDays": settings.fundamentals_horizon_days}}
	101	+ return mu, var, detail
	102	+
	103	+
	104	+# ----------------------------------------------------------------- momentum
	105	+def momentum_shift(last_pct: np.ndarray, fund: dict \| None, attention: dict \| None, media: dict \| None) -> tuple[np.ndarray, dict]:
	106	+ """Nudge additif (pp) par parti, borné et recentré ; détail par composante."""
	107	+ P = len(PARTIES_ALL)
	108	+ parts = {"leader": {}, "attention": {}, "media": {}}
	109	+ shift = np.zeros(P)
	110	+ for j, pid in enumerate(PARTY_IDS):
	111	+ v = float(last_pct[j])
	112	+ comp = 0.0
	113	+ if fund and fund.get("enabled"):
	114	+ bp = (fund.get("bestPmShare") or {}).get(pid)
	115	+ if bp is not None:
	116	+ x = settings.momentum_leader_kappa * (float(bp) - v)
	117	+ parts["leader"][pid] = round(x, 2)
	118	+ comp += x
	119	+ if attention and attention.get("enabled"):
	120	+ d = (attention.get("delta") or {}).get(pid)
	121	+ if d is not None:
	122	+ x = settings.momentum_attention_kappa * float(d)
	123	+ parts["attention"][pid] = round(x, 2)
	124	+ comp += x
	125	+ if media and media.get("enabled"):
	126	+ t = (media.get("tone") or {}).get(pid)
	127	+ n = (media.get("counts") or {}).get(pid, 0)
	128	+ if t is not None and n:
	129	+ x = settings.momentum_media_kappa * float(t) * min(1.0, n / 10.0)
	130	+ parts["media"][pid] = round(x, 2)
	131	+ comp += x
	132	+ shift[j] = _clip(comp, -settings.momentum_max_pp, settings.momentum_max_pp)
	133	+ main = shift[: len(PARTY_IDS)]
	134	+ if np.any(main):
	135	+ main = main - main.mean() # somme nulle : le momentum redistribue, il ne crée pas de vote
	136	+ shift[: len(PARTY_IDS)] = main
	137	+ detail = {"enabled": bool(np.any(shift)), "shiftPp": {p: round(float(x), 2) for p, x in zip(PARTIES_ALL, shift)}, "parts": parts,
	138	+ "params": {"leaderKappa": settings.momentum_leader_kappa, "attentionKappa": settings.momentum_attention_kappa, "mediaKappa": settings.momentum_media_kappa, "maxPp": settings.momentum_max_pp}}
	139	+ return shift, detail
	140	+
	141	+
	142	+def apply_shift(national: np.ndarray, shift: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
	143	+ """Décale les tirages nationaux (S, P) de `shift` pp, puis renormalise (plancher 0,2 %)."""
	144	+ if not np.any(shift):
	145	+ return national
	146	+ out = np.clip(national + shift[None, :], 0.2, None)
	147	+ return 100.0 * out / out.sum(axis=1, keepdims=True)
	148	+
	149	+
	150	+# ------------------------------------------------------------------ marchés
	151	+@dataclass
	152	+class Tempering:
	153	+ weights: np.ndarray
	154	+ detail: dict = field(default_factory=dict)
	155	+
	156	+
	157	+def market_tempering(seats: np.ndarray, majority: int, markets: dict \| None, w_m: float \| None = None) -> Tempering:
	158	+ """Repondération IPF des simulations vers (1−w)·modèle + w·marché sur : gagnant (plus de sièges),
	159	+ majorité (parti concerné), tranches de sièges (poids réduit de moitié : marchés moins liquides)."""
	160	+ S, P = seats.shape
	161	+ w = np.ones(S)
	162	+ w_m = settings.markets_weight if w_m is None else w_m
	163	+ detail = {"enabled": False, "weight": w_m}
	164	+ if not markets or w_m <= 0:
	165	+ return Tempering(w, detail)
	166	+ most = seats.argmax(axis=1)
	167	+ constraints: list[tuple[np.ndarray, dict[int, float], str]] = []
	168	+ # 1) plus de sièges
	169	+ ms = markets.get("mostSeats") or {}
	170	+ if ms:
	171	+ model = {j: float((most == j).mean()) for j in range(P)}
	172	+ target = {}
	173	+ for j, pid in enumerate(PARTIES_ALL):
	174	+ mk = ms.get(pid)
	175	+ target[j] = (1 - w_m) * model[j] + w_m * float(mk) if mk is not None else model[j]
	176	+ tot = sum(target.values()) or 1
	177	+ target = {j: v / tot for j, v in target.items()}
	178	+ constraints.append((most, target, "mostSeats"))
	179	+ # 2) majorité
	180	+ for pid, pm in (markets.get("majority") or {}).items():
	181	+ if pid in PARTIES_ALL:
	182	+ j = PARTIES_ALL.index(pid)
	183	+ ind = (seats[:, j] >= majority).astype(int)
	184	+ model_p = float(ind.mean())
	185	+ t = (1 - w_m) * model_p + w_m * float(pm)
	186	+ constraints.append((ind, {1: t, 0: 1 - t}, f"majority:{pid}"))
	187	+ # 3) tranches de sièges (poids réduit)
	188	+ wb = w_m / 2
	189	+ for pid, sb in (markets.get("seatBands") or {}).items():
	190	+ if pid not in PARTIES_ALL or not sb.get("bands"):
	191	+ continue
	192	+ j = PARTIES_ALL.index(pid)
	193	+ bands = sb["bands"]
	194	+ cat = np.full(S, -1)
	195	+ for k, b in enumerate(bands):
	196	+ lo, hi = b["lo"], b["hi"] if b["hi"] is not None else 10**6
	197	+ cat[(seats[:, j] >= lo) & (seats[:, j] <= hi)] = k
	198	+ if (cat < 0).any():
	199	+ continue
	200	+ model = {k: float((cat == k).mean()) for k in range(len(bands))}
	201	+ target = {k: (1 - wb) * model[k] + wb * float(bands[k]["p"]) for k in range(len(bands))}
	202	+ tot = sum(target.values()) or 1
	203	+ constraints.append((cat, {k: v / tot for k, v in target.items()}, f"seatBands:{pid}"))
	204	+ if not constraints:
	205	+ return Tempering(w, detail)
	206	+ for _ in range(25):
	207	+ for cat, target, _name in constraints:
	208	+ cur = {k: float(w[cat == k].sum() / w.sum()) for k in target}
	209	+ for k, t in target.items():
	210	+ if cur.get(k, 0) > 1e-9 and t > 0:
	211	+ w[cat == k] *= t / cur[k]
	212	+ elif t <= 0:
	213	+ w[cat == k] *= 0.0
	214	+ w = np.clip(w, 0.02, 50.0)
	215	+ w *= S / w.sum()
	216	+ achieved = {}
	217	+ for cat, target, name in constraints:
	218	+ achieved[name] = {str(k): round(float(w[cat == k].sum() / w.sum()), 4) for k in target}
	219	+ detail = {"enabled": True, "weight": w_m, "bandWeight": wb, "ess": round(ess(w), 0), "constraints": [c[2] for c in constraints], "achieved": achieved,
	220	+ "marketAsOf": markets.get("asOf"), "marketVolume": markets.get("volume"), "mostSeatsMarket": markets.get("mostSeats"), "majorityMarket": markets.get("majority"),
	221	+ "seatBandsImpliedMean": {p: v.get("impliedMean") for p, v in (markets.get("seatBands") or {}).items()}}
	222	+ return Tempering(w, detail)
	223	+
	224	+
	225	+# --------------------------------------------------------------- partielles
	226	+def byelection_adjustments(byel: dict \| None, ridings: list, trend: list[dict], national_2022: dict[str, float]) -> tuple[np.ndarray, dict]:
	227	+ """Matrice (R, P) d'ajustements logit : κ × (swing local observé à la partielle − swing national du jour)."""
	228	+ R, P = len(ridings), len(PARTIES_ALL)
	229	+ adj = np.zeros((R, P))
	230	+ detail = {"enabled": False, "ridings": []}
	231	+ if not byel or not byel.get("enabled") or not trend:
	232	+ return adj, detail
	233	+ from ..util import norm_name
	234	+ by_name = {norm_name(r.name): i for i, r in enumerate(ridings) if getattr(r, "name", None)}
	235	+ by_date = {t["date"]: t["mean"] for t in trend}
	236	+ dates = sorted(by_date)
	237	+ for b in byel.get("byElections", []):
	238	+ key = norm_name(b.get("riding") or "")
	239	+ i = by_name.get(key)
	240	+ if i is None:
	241	+ i = next((idx for k, idx in by_name.items() if k.startswith(key) and key), None)
	242	+ if i is None or not b.get("previous"):
	243	+ continue
	244	+ d = b["date"]
	245	+ nat_d = by_date.get(d) or by_date.get(next((x for x in dates if x >= d), dates[-1]))
	246	+ res = {r["party_id"]: r["share"] for r in b.get("results", []) if r.get("party_id")}
	247	+ row = {}
	248	+ for j, pid in enumerate(PARTY_IDS):
	249	+ if pid not in res or pid not in b["previous"] or pid not in nat_d:
	250	+ continue
	251	+ local = _logit(res[pid] / 100) - _logit(b["previous"][pid] / 100)
	252	+ national = _logit(nat_d[pid] / 100) - _logit(national_2022.get(pid, 1) / 100)
	253	+ x = _clip(settings.byelection_kappa * (local - national), -1.0, 1.0)
	254	+ adj[i, j] = x
	255	+ row[pid] = round(x, 3)
	256	+ detail["ridings"].append({"code": ridings[i].code, "riding": b.get("riding"), "date": d, "adjLogit": row, "kappa": settings.byelection_kappa})
	257	+ detail["enabled"] = bool(detail["ridings"])
	258	+ return adj, detail

modified engine/qc26/model/ridings.py +1 −0

		`@@ -31,6 +31,7 @@ class RidingInput:`
31	31	electors: int = 50000
32	32	pct_french: float \| None = None # langue maternelle française (recensement 2021)
33	33	poll_region: str = "reste"
	34	+ name: str = ""
34	35
35	36
36	37	def simulate_ridings(ridings: list[RidingInput], national_draws: np.ndarray, national_2022: dict[str, float],

modified engine/qc26/model/run.py +131 −50

		`@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@`
1		−"""Exécution d'un run de prévision : sondages → latent → Monte Carlo → sièges →
2		−persistance versionnée → « Qu'est-ce qui a changé ? »."""
	1	+"""Exécution d'un run de prévision (modèle 2.0) : sondages → latent → mélange fondamentaux →
	2	+Monte Carlo → momentum → sièges → tempérage par les marchés (repondération) → persistance
	3	+versionnée → « Qu'est-ce qui a changé ? ». Chaque composante est publiée séparément (summary.components)
	4	+et la vue « sondages seuls » (pondération uniforme, sans fondamentaux ni momentum) est conservée."""
3	5	from __future__ import annotations
4	6
5	7	import logging
		`@@ -17,6 +19,7 @@ from ..db import (Candidate, ForecastHouseEffect, ForecastPartyResult, ForecastR`
17	19	from ..parties import PARTY_IDS
18	20	from ..regions import POLL_REGION_LABELS, poll_region_for
19	21	from .aggregate import PARTIES_ALL, Obs, compute_weights, election_day_distribution, house_effects, kalman_latent
	22	+from .ensemble import (apply_shift, byelection_adjustments, ess, fundamentals_blend, market_tempering, momentum_shift, whist, wmean, wquantile)
20	23	from .ridings import RidingInput, explain_factors, rating, simulate_ridings
21	24	from .segments import build_segment_model, riding_adjustments
22	25
		`@@ -57,7 +60,7 @@ def load_ridings(s: Session) -> tuple[list[RidingInput], dict[str, float]]:`
57	60	out = [RidingInput(code=r.code, region_id=r.region_id or "inconnue", baseline=baselines.get(r.code, {}),
58	61	incumbent_party=r.incumbent_party_id, incumbent_running=r.incumbent_running, candidates=cands.get(r.code, set()),
59	62	electors=r.electors_2026 or 50000, pct_french=(demo[r.code].pct_french_mt if r.code in demo else None),
60		− poll_region=poll_region_for(r.code))
	63	+ poll_region=poll_region_for(r.code), name=r.name)
61	64	for r in rows if baselines.get(r.code)]
62	65	national_2022 = {p.id: (p.vote_2022 or 0.0) for p in s.scalars(select(Party)).all()}
63	66	national_2022["aut"] = max(0.5, 100.0 - sum(national_2022.values()))
		`@@ -70,6 +73,36 @@ def _draw_national(mu: np.ndarray, cov: np.ndarray, n: int, rng: np.random.Gener`
70	73	return 100.0 * p / p.sum(axis=1, keepdims=True)
71	74
72	75
	76	+def _load_signals(s: Session, cutoff: date) -> dict:
	77	+ """Signaux disponibles en base (jamais interrogés en ligne pendant un run)."""
	78	+ out = {"markets": None, "fundamentals": None, "attention": None, "media": None, "byelections": None}
	79	+ try:
	80	+ from ..signals import attention, byelections, fundamentals, markets, media
	81	+ out["markets"] = markets.implied(s)
	82	+ out["fundamentals"] = fundamentals.fundamentals_summary(s, cutoff)
	83	+ out["attention"] = attention.attention_summary(s, cutoff)
	84	+ out["media"] = media.media_summary(s, cutoff)
	85	+ out["byelections"] = byelections.byelection_summary(s)
	86	+ except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
	87	+ log.warning("signaux indisponibles : %s", e)
	88	+ return out
	89	+
	90	+
	91	+def _party_stats(national: np.ndarray, seats: np.ndarray, w: np.ndarray, majority: int, seats_total: int) -> dict:
	92	+ most = seats.argmax(axis=1)
	93	+ out = {}
	94	+ for j, pid in enumerate(PARTIES_ALL):
	95	+ v, sj = national[:, j], seats[:, j]
	96	+ out[pid] = {"vote": round(wmean(v, w), 2), "vote_sd": round(float(np.sqrt(np.average((v - wmean(v, w)) ** 2, weights=w))), 2),
	97	+ "vote80": [round(wquantile(v, w, 0.10), 1), round(wquantile(v, w, 0.90), 1)],
	98	+ "vote95": [round(wquantile(v, w, 0.025), 1), round(wquantile(v, w, 0.975), 1)],
	99	+ "seats": int(wquantile(sj.astype(float), w, 0.5)), "seats_mean": round(wmean(sj, w), 1),
	100	+ "seats80": [int(wquantile(sj.astype(float), w, 0.10)), int(wquantile(sj.astype(float), w, 0.90))],
	101	+ "seats95": [int(wquantile(sj.astype(float), w, 0.025)), int(wquantile(sj.astype(float), w, 0.975))],
	102	+ "p_most_seats": round(float(np.average(most == j, weights=w)), 4), "p_majority": round(float(np.average(sj >= majority, weights=w)), 4)}
	103	+ return out
	104	+
	105	+
73	106	def run_forecast(s: Session, trigger: str = "manual", cutoff: date \| None = None, publish: bool = True,
74	107	n_sims: int \| None = None) -> ForecastRun:
75	108	cutoff = cutoff or date.today()
		`@@ -84,66 +117,87 @@ def run_forecast(s: Session, trigger: str = "manual", cutoff: date \| None = None`
84	117	obs = load_observations(s, cutoff)
85	118	if len(obs) < 3:
86	119	raise RuntimeError("trop peu de sondages")
	120	+ days_left = max(0, (settings.election_date - cutoff).days)
87	121	weights = compute_weights(obs, cutoff)
88	122	effects = house_effects(obs, cutoff)
89	123	latent = kalman_latent(obs, cutoff, effects)
90		− mu, cov = election_day_distribution(latent, cutoff, settings.election_date)
91		− national = _draw_national(mu, cov, n_sims, rng) # (S, P) %
	124	+ signals = _load_signals(s, cutoff)
	125	+
	126	+ # --- 1. vote national : sondages seuls, puis mélange fondamentaux ---
	127	+ mu_polls, cov_polls = election_day_distribution(latent, cutoff, settings.election_date)
	128	+ national_polls = _draw_national(mu_polls, cov_polls, n_sims, rng) # (S, P) % — sondages seuls
	129	+ mu_f, var_f, fund_detail = fundamentals_blend(latent["mean_logit"], latent["var_logit"], latent["last_pct"], signals["fundamentals"], days_left)
	130	+ if fund_detail["enabled"]:
	131	+ latent_f = {**latent, "mean_logit": mu_f, "var_logit": var_f}
	132	+ mu_e, cov_e = election_day_distribution(latent_f, cutoff, settings.election_date)
	133	+ rng_e = np.random.default_rng(seed) # mêmes aléas → différence attribuable au seul mélange
	134	+ national = _draw_national(mu_e, cov_e, n_sims, rng_e)
	135	+ else:
	136	+ national = national_polls.copy()
	137	+ # --- 2. momentum (nudge borné, somme nulle) ---
	138	+ shift, mom_detail = momentum_shift(latent["last_pct"], signals["fundamentals"], signals["attention"], signals["media"])
	139	+ national = apply_shift(national, shift)
92	140
	141	+ # --- 3. circonscriptions ---
93	142	ridings, national_2022 = load_ridings(s)
94	143	national_now_mean = {p: float(national[:, j].mean()) for j, p in enumerate(PARTIES_ALL)}
95	144	seg_model, f_r = build_segment_model(s, cutoff, national_now_mean, national_2022)
96	145	seg_adj = riding_adjustments(seg_model, [r.code for r in ridings], f_r)
97		− winners, shares = simulate_ridings(ridings, national, national_2022, rng, seg_adj=seg_adj)
	146	+ be_adj, be_detail = byelection_adjustments(signals["byelections"], ridings, latent["series"], national_2022)
	147	+ total_adj = seg_adj + be_adj
	148	+ rng_r = np.random.default_rng(seed + 1)
	149	+ winners, shares = simulate_ridings(ridings, national, national_2022, rng_r, seg_adj=total_adj)
98	150	S, R, P = shares.shape
99	151	seats_total = int(get_setting(s, "seats_total", R))
100	152	majority = int(get_setting(s, "majority_threshold", seats_total // 2 + 1))
101	153	seats = np.zeros((S, P), dtype=int)
102	154	for j in range(P):
103	155	seats[:, j] = (winners == j).sum(axis=1)
104		− most = seats.argmax(axis=1)
	156	+ # sondages seuls (mêmes aléas de circonscription, sans fondamentaux, momentum ni partielles) — pour comparaison
	157	+ rng_r0 = np.random.default_rng(seed + 1)
	158	+ winners0, _ = simulate_ridings(ridings, national_polls, national_2022, rng_r0, seg_adj=seg_adj)
	159	+ seats0 = np.zeros((S, P), dtype=int)
	160	+ for j in range(P):
	161	+ seats0[:, j] = (winners0 == j).sum(axis=1)
	162	+
	163	+ # --- 4. tempérage par les marchés : repondération des simulations ---
	164	+ temp = market_tempering(seats, majority, signals["markets"])
	165	+ w = temp.weights
	166	+ uniform = np.ones(S)
105	167
106		− summary_parties = {}
	168	+ # --- statistiques pondérées ---
	169	+ most = seats.argmax(axis=1)
	170	+ summary_parties = _party_stats(national, seats, w, majority, seats_total)
	171	+ polls_only = _party_stats(national_polls, seats0, uniform, majority, seats_total)
	172	+ model_only = _party_stats(national, seats, uniform, majority, seats_total) # fondamentaux + momentum, sans marchés
107	173	s.execute(delete(ForecastPartyResult).where(ForecastPartyResult.run_id == run.id))
108	174	for j, pid in enumerate(PARTIES_ALL):
109		− v = national[:, j]
110		− sj = seats[:, j]
111		− hist = np.bincount(sj, minlength=seats_total + 1).tolist()
112		− fpr = ForecastPartyResult(
113		− run_id=run.id, party_id=pid, vote_mean=float(v.mean()), vote_sd=float(v.std()),
114		− vote_lo80=float(np.percentile(v, 10)), vote_hi80=float(np.percentile(v, 90)),
115		− vote_lo95=float(np.percentile(v, 2.5)), vote_hi95=float(np.percentile(v, 97.5)),
116		− seats_mean=float(sj.mean()), seats_median=int(np.median(sj)),
117		− seats_lo80=int(np.percentile(sj, 10)), seats_hi80=int(np.percentile(sj, 90)),
118		− seats_lo95=int(np.percentile(sj, 2.5)), seats_hi95=int(np.percentile(sj, 97.5)),
119		− p_most_seats=float((most == j).mean()), p_majority=float((sj >= majority).mean()),
120		− seat_distribution=hist)
121		− s.add(fpr)
122		− summary_parties[pid] = {"vote": round(fpr.vote_mean, 2), "vote_sd": round(fpr.vote_sd, 2),
123		− "vote80": [round(fpr.vote_lo80, 1), round(fpr.vote_hi80, 1)],
124		− "seats": fpr.seats_median, "seats_mean": round(fpr.seats_mean, 1),
125		− "seats80": [fpr.seats_lo80, fpr.seats_hi80], "seats95": [fpr.seats_lo95, fpr.seats_hi95],
126		− "p_most_seats": round(fpr.p_most_seats, 4), "p_majority": round(fpr.p_majority, 4)}
127		− p_minority = float((seats.max(axis=1) < majority).mean())
	175	+ v, sj, sp = national[:, j], seats[:, j], summary_parties[pid]
	176	+ s.add(ForecastPartyResult(
	177	+ run_id=run.id, party_id=pid, vote_mean=sp["vote"], vote_sd=sp["vote_sd"],
	178	+ vote_lo80=sp["vote80"][0], vote_hi80=sp["vote80"][1], vote_lo95=sp["vote95"][0], vote_hi95=sp["vote95"][1],
	179	+ seats_mean=sp["seats_mean"], seats_median=sp["seats"], seats_lo80=sp["seats80"][0], seats_hi80=sp["seats80"][1],
	180	+ seats_lo95=sp["seats95"][0], seats_hi95=sp["seats95"][1], p_most_seats=sp["p_most_seats"], p_majority=sp["p_majority"],
	181	+ seat_distribution=whist(sj, w, seats_total + 1)))
	182	+ p_minority = float(np.average(seats.max(axis=1) < majority, weights=w))
128	183
129	184	# circonscriptions
130	185	s.execute(delete(ForecastRidingResult).where(ForecastRidingResult.run_id == run.id))
131	186	s.execute(delete(ForecastRidingSummary).where(ForecastRidingSummary.run_id == run.id))
132		− national_now = {p: round(float(national[:, j].mean()), 2) for j, p in enumerate(PARTIES_ALL)}
133		− battlegrounds = []
134		− riding_rows = []
	187	+ national_now = {p: summary_parties[p]["vote"] for p in PARTIES_ALL}
	188	+ battlegrounds, riding_rows = [], []
	189	+ be_codes = {x["code"]: x for x in be_detail.get("ridings", [])}
135	190	for i, r in enumerate(ridings):
136	191	sh = shares[:, i, :]
137		− pw = np.array([(winners[:, i] == j).mean() for j in range(P)])
	192	+ pw = np.array([float(np.average(winners[:, i] == j, weights=w)) for j in range(P)])
138	193	order = np.argsort(-pw)
139	194	fav, second = int(order[0]), int(order[1])
140		− share_mean = {p: float(sh[:, j].mean()) for j, p in enumerate(PARTIES_ALL)}
	195	+ share_mean = {p: wmean(sh[:, j], w) for j, p in enumerate(PARTIES_ALL)}
141	196	for j, pid in enumerate(PARTIES_ALL):
142	197	if pid == "aut" and share_mean[pid] < 1.5:
143	198	continue
144	199	s.add(ForecastRidingResult(run_id=run.id, riding_code=r.code, party_id=pid, vote_mean=share_mean[pid],
145		− vote_lo80=float(np.percentile(sh[:, j], 10)), vote_hi80=float(np.percentile(sh[:, j], 90)),
146		− p_win=float(pw[j])))
	200	+ vote_lo80=wquantile(sh[:, j], w, 0.10), vote_hi80=wquantile(sh[:, j], w, 0.90), p_win=float(pw[j])))
147	201	fav_id = PARTIES_ALL[fav]
148	202	margin = share_mean[fav_id] - share_mean[PARTIES_ALL[second]]
149	203	swing = share_mean[fav_id] - r.baseline.get(fav_id, 0.0)
		`@@ -154,11 +208,21 @@ def run_forecast(s: Session, trigger: str = "manual", cutoff: date \| None = None`
154	208	if r.poll_region in seg_model.current and fav_id in seg_model.current[r.poll_region]:
155	209	seg_detail["region"] = {"label": POLL_REGION_LABELS.get(r.poll_region, r.poll_region), "now": seg_model.current[r.poll_region][fav_id],
156	210	"2022": seg_model.baseline.get(r.poll_region, {}).get(fav_id, 0)}
	211	+ factors = explain_factors(r, national_now, national_2022, fav_id, share_mean, seg_adj_fav=float(seg_adj[i, fav]), seg_detail=seg_detail)
	212	+ if r.code in be_codes:
	213	+ be = be_codes[r.code]
	214	+ a = be["adjLogit"].get(fav_id, 0.0)
	215	+ _d = date.fromisoformat(be["date"])
	216	+ _mois = ["janvier", "février", "mars", "avril", "mai", "juin", "juillet", "août", "septembre", "octobre", "novembre", "décembre"][_d.month - 1]
	217	+ factors.insert(2, {"factor": "partielle", "label": f"Élection partielle du {_d.day}{'er' if _d.day == 1 else ''} {_mois} {_d.year} (résultat officiel)",
	218	+ "detail": f"excès de swing local observé, net du swing national du jour, rétréci (κ {be['kappa']}) : {a:+.2f} logit pour {fav_id.upper()}",
	219	+ "direction": "+" if a > 0.02 else "-" if a < -0.02 else "±"})
	220	+ if temp.detail.get("enabled"):
	221	+ factors.append({"factor": "marches", "label": "Tempérage par les marchés de prédiction (Polymarket)",
	222	+ "detail": f"simulations repondérées (poids {temp.detail['weight']}) vers les probabilités implicites nationales ; effet indirect sur la circonscription", "direction": "±"})
157	223	summ = ForecastRidingSummary(run_id=run.id, riding_code=r.code, favorite_party_id=fav_id, favorite_p=float(pw[fav]),
158	224	runner_up_party_id=PARTIES_ALL[second], margin_mean=float(margin),
159		− volatility=float(1 - pw[fav]), rating=rating(float(pw[fav])), swing_from_2022=float(swing),
160		− factors=explain_factors(r, national_now, national_2022, fav_id, share_mean,
161		− seg_adj_fav=float(seg_adj[i, fav]), seg_detail=seg_detail))
	225	+ volatility=float(1 - pw[fav]), rating=rating(float(pw[fav])), swing_from_2022=float(swing), factors=factors)
162	226	s.add(summ)
163	227	riding_rows.append((r.code, fav_id, float(pw[fav]), PARTIES_ALL[second], float(margin)))
164	228	battlegrounds.append((float(1 - pw[fav]), r.code))
		`@@ -177,7 +241,7 @@ def run_forecast(s: Session, trigger: str = "manual", cutoff: date \| None = None`
177	241	recent_ids = [o.poll_id for o in obs if (cutoff - o.end).days <= 45]
178	242	base_last = {p: float(x) for p, x in zip(PARTIES_ALL, latent["last_pct"])}
179	243	for o in obs:
180		− w = weights[o.poll_id]
	244	+ wgt = weights[o.poll_id]
181	245	impact = None
182	246	if o.poll_id in recent_ids and len(obs) > 4:
183	247	sub = [x for x in obs if x.poll_id != o.poll_id]
		`@@ -186,29 +250,38 @@ def run_forecast(s: Session, trigger: str = "manual", cutoff: date \| None = None`
186	250	impact = {p: round(base_last[p] - float(x), 2) for p, x in zip(PARTIES_ALL, lat2["last_pct"])}
187	251	except Exception: # noqa: BLE001
188	252	impact = None
189		− s.add(PollWeight(run_id=run.id, poll_id=o.poll_id, weight=w["weight"], recency_weight=w["recency"],
190		− sample_weight=w["sample"], impact=impact))
	253	+ s.add(PollWeight(run_id=run.id, poll_id=o.poll_id, weight=wgt["weight"], recency_weight=wgt["recency"],
	254	+ sample_weight=wgt["sample"], impact=impact))
191	255
192		− # tendance quotidienne (série pour les graphiques) — allégée à 1 point / jour
193	256	trend = latent["series"]
194		−
195		− # résumé + diff avec le run publié précédent
196	257	prev = s.scalar(select(ForecastRun).where(ForecastRun.is_published == True, ForecastRun.kind == "forecast", # noqa: E712
197	258	ForecastRun.id != run.id).order_by(ForecastRun.id.desc()))
198	259	top = sorted(summary_parties.items(), key=lambda kv: -kv[1]["seats_mean"])
	260	+ components = {
	261	+ "pollsOnly": {"parties": polls_only, "p_minority": round(float((seats0.max(axis=1) < majority).mean()), 4)},
	262	+ "modelNoMarkets": {"parties": model_only, "p_minority": round(float((seats.max(axis=1) < majority).mean()), 4)},
	263	+ "fundamentals": fund_detail, "momentum": mom_detail, "markets": temp.detail, "byelections": be_detail,
	264	+ "signals": {"attention": {k: v for k, v in (signals["attention"] or {}).items() if k in ("enabled", "asOf", "share7", "share28", "delta")},
	265	+ "media": {k: v for k, v in (signals["media"] or {}).items() if k in ("enabled", "asOf", "articles", "shareOfVoice", "tone", "counts")},
	266	+ "fundamentals": {k: v for k, v in (signals["fundamentals"] or {}).items() if k in ("enabled", "asOf", "satisfaction", "satisfactionNet", "bestPmShare", "leaderNetFavorable", "secondChoice", "sovereigntyYes")},
	267	+ "markets": {k: v for k, v in (signals["markets"] or {}).items() if k in ("asOf", "mostSeats", "majority", "volume")} if signals["markets"] else None,
	268	+ "byelections": {"n": (signals["byelections"] or {}).get("n", 0), "meanSwing": (signals["byelections"] or {}).get("meanSwing")}},
	269	+ "ess": round(ess(w), 0), "nSimulations": n_sims,
	270	+ }
199	271	summary = {
200	272	"seats_total": seats_total, "majority": majority, "parties": summary_parties, "p_minority": round(p_minority, 4),
201	273	"leader": top[0][0], "poll_count": len(obs), "latest_poll": max(o.end for o in obs).isoformat(),
202		− "national_now": national_now, "cutoff": cutoff.isoformat(), "days_to_election": (settings.election_date - cutoff).days,
	274	+ "national_now": national_now, "cutoff": cutoff.isoformat(), "days_to_election": days_left,
203	275	"battlegrounds": [c for _, c in sorted(battlegrounds, reverse=True)[:15]],
204	276	"segments": seg_model.payload(),
205	277	"demographics_coverage": sum(1 for r in ridings if r.pct_french is not None),
206	278	"ridings": {str(c): {"fav": f, "p": round(p, 3), "second": sec, "margin": round(m, 1)} for c, f, p, sec, m in riding_rows},
	279	+ "components": components,
207	280	}
208	281	diff = None
209		− if prev and prev.summary:
210		− new_polls = [o.poll_id for o in obs if o.end > date.fromisoformat(prev.summary.get("latest_poll", "1900-01-01")) or
211		− o.poll_id not in {pw.poll_id for pw in s.scalars(select(PollWeight).where(PollWeight.run_id == prev.id)).all()}]
	282	+ if prev and prev.summary and "parties" in prev.summary:
	283	+ prev_ids = {pw.poll_id for pw in s.scalars(select(PollWeight).where(PollWeight.run_id == prev.id)).all()}
	284	+ new_polls = [o.poll_id for o in obs if o.end > date.fromisoformat(prev.summary.get("latest_poll", "1900-01-01")) or o.poll_id not in prev_ids]
212	285	changes = {}
213	286	for pid in PARTIES_ALL:
214	287	a, b = prev.summary["parties"].get(pid), summary_parties[pid]
		`@@ -224,8 +297,16 @@ def run_forecast(s: Session, trigger: str = "manual", cutoff: date \| None = None`
224	297	causes = []
225	298	if new_polls:
226	299	causes.append({"kind": "new_polls", "detail": new_polls[:6]})
227		− if not new_polls:
228		− causes.append({"kind": "time", "detail": "recalcul sans nouveau sondage (récence, dérive vers le scrutin)"})
	300	+ prev_mk = ((prev.summary.get("components") or {}).get("markets") or {}).get("mostSeatsMarket")
	301	+ cur_mk = temp.detail.get("mostSeatsMarket")
	302	+ if prev_mk and cur_mk:
	303	+ moved = {p: round(cur_mk.get(p, 0) - prev_mk.get(p, 0), 3) for p in cur_mk if abs(cur_mk.get(p, 0) - prev_mk.get(p, 0)) >= 0.02}
	304	+ if moved:
	305	+ causes.append({"kind": "markets", "detail": moved})
	306	+ if prev.model_version != settings.model_version:
	307	+ causes.append({"kind": "model", "detail": f"modèle {prev.model_version} → {settings.model_version}"})
	308	+ if not causes:
	309	+ causes.append({"kind": "time", "detail": "recalcul sans nouveau sondage (récence, dérive vers le scrutin, signaux mis à jour)"})
229	310	diff = {"previous_run": prev.id, "previous_at": prev.completed_at.isoformat() if prev.completed_at else None,
230	311	"changes": changes, "flips": flips, "causes": causes}
231	312
		`@@ -239,7 +320,7 @@ def run_forecast(s: Session, trigger: str = "manual", cutoff: date \| None = None`
239	320	run.is_published = True
240	321	set_setting(s, "latest_forecast_run", run.id)
241	322	s.flush()
242		− log.info("run %d : %s — sièges %s", run.id, summary["leader"], {k: v["seats"] for k, v in summary_parties.items()})
	323	+ log.info("run %d : %s — sièges %s (ESS %s)", run.id, summary["leader"], {k: v["seats"] for k, v in summary_parties.items()}, components["ess"])
243	324	return run
244	325	except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
245	326	run.status = "failed"

modified engine/qc26/scheduler.py +52 −0

		`@@ -92,6 +92,54 @@ def job_documents():`
92	92	return {"docs": res, "positions": pos}
93	93
94	94
	95	+@_guarded("signals_markets")
	96	+def job_signals_markets():
	97	+ from .signals import markets
	98	+ with session_scope() as s:
	99	+ return markets.sync_markets(s, with_history=True)
	100	+
	101	+
	102	+@_guarded("signals_daily")
	103	+def job_signals_daily():
	104	+ """Attention (Wikipédia), fondamentaux (questions de leadership), partielles, GDELT — une fois par jour, puis recalcul."""
	105	+ from .ingest import official
	106	+ from .model.run import run_forecast
	107	+ from .signals import attention, byelections, fundamentals, media
	108	+ out = {}
	109	+ with session_scope() as s:
	110	+ out["attention"] = attention.sync_attention(s)
	111	+ with session_scope() as s:
	112	+ out["fundamentals"] = fundamentals.extract_from_polls(s)
	113	+ with session_scope() as s:
	114	+ out["byelections"] = byelections.sync_by_elections(s)
	115	+ official.apply_by_election_incumbents(s)
	116	+ try:
	117	+ with session_scope() as s:
	118	+ out["gdelt"] = media.sync_gdelt(s)
	119	+ except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
	120	+ out["gdelt"] = {"error": str(e)[:200]}
	121	+ with session_scope() as s:
	122	+ run = run_forecast(s, trigger="signals_daily")
	123	+ out["run"] = run.id
	124	+ return out
	125	+
	126	+
	127	+@_guarded("signals_media")
	128	+def job_signals_media():
	129	+ from .signals import media
	130	+ with session_scope() as s:
	131	+ return media.sync_news(s, classify=True)
	132	+
	133	+
	134	+@_guarded("periodic_forecast")
	135	+def job_periodic_forecast():
	136	+ """Recalcul toutes les 6 h : les marchés bougent en continu, la récence des sondages aussi."""
	137	+ from .model.run import run_forecast
	138	+ with session_scope() as s:
	139	+ run = run_forecast(s, trigger="periodic")
	140	+ return {"run": run.id}
	141	+
	142	+
95	143	def _in_live_window() -> bool:
96	144	if settings.election_simulation:
97	145	return True
		`@@ -126,6 +174,10 @@ def start() -> BackgroundScheduler:`
126	174	sch.add_job(job_daily_forecast, "cron", hour=6, minute=15, id="daily_forecast")
127	175	sch.add_job(job_documents, "interval", minutes=settings.doc_watch_minutes, id="documents", next_run_time=datetime.now(timezone.utc) + timedelta(minutes=30))
128	176	sch.add_job(job_live, "interval", seconds=settings.live_poll_seconds, id="live")
	177	+ sch.add_job(job_signals_markets, "interval", minutes=settings.signals_markets_minutes, id="signals_markets", next_run_time=datetime.now(timezone.utc) + timedelta(minutes=5))
	178	+ sch.add_job(job_signals_media, "interval", hours=settings.signals_media_hours, id="signals_media", next_run_time=datetime.now(timezone.utc) + timedelta(minutes=12))
	179	+ sch.add_job(job_signals_daily, "cron", hour=5, minute=40, id="signals_daily")
	180	+ sch.add_job(job_periodic_forecast, "cron", hour="0,12,18", minute=20, id="periodic_forecast")
129	181	sch.start()
130	182	_sched = sch
131	183	log.info("planificateur démarré")

added engine/qc26/signals/__init__.py +8 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@`
	1	+"""Signaux « au-delà des sondages » (modèle 2.0) : marchés de prédiction, attention publique,
	2	+couverture médiatique, fondamentaux tirés des questions de leadership, élections partielles.
	3	+
	4	+Chaque connecteur écrit des observations datées et sourcées dans `signals` (et les tables
	5	+dédiées `markets`, `market_prices`, `media_items`, `by_elections`). Le modèle (`model/ensemble.py`)
	6	+n'utilise que ce qui est en base : aucun signal n'est inventé, l'absence d'un signal désactive
	7	+simplement la composante correspondante.
	8	+"""

added engine/qc26/signals/attention.py +113 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,113 @@`
	1	+"""Attention publique — pages vues Wikipédia (API REST Wikimedia, publique, sans clé).
	2	+
	3	+Pour chaque parti : page du parti + page de son·sa chef·fe (Wikipédia FR), vues quotidiennes
	4	+« user » (robots exclus) depuis le 1er juin 2026. Le signal dérivé est la part d'attention
	5	+(part des vues du parti dans le total des cinq partis) et son évolution 7 j vs 28 j. C'est un
	6	+indicateur de saillance, pas d'intention de vote : il n'entre dans le modèle que comme
	7	+composante de momentum bornée.
	8	+"""
	9	+from __future__ import annotations
	10	+
	11	+import logging
	12	+from datetime import date, datetime, timedelta
	13	+from urllib.parse import quote
	14	+
	15	+import httpx
	16	+from sqlalchemy import select
	17	+from sqlalchemy.orm import Session
	18	+
	19	+from ..config import settings
	20	+from ..db import Signal, Source, utcnow
	21	+from ..parties import PARTY_IDS
	22	+from .markets import _upsert_signal
	23	+
	24	+log = logging.getLogger("qc26.signals.attention")
	25	+
	26	+# Pages Wikipédia FR (titres exacts) — parti puis chef·fe (registre DGEQ ; pour QS la cheffe
	27	+# officielle est peu connue du public : on suit la co-porte-parole parlementaire).
	28	+PAGES: dict[str, list[str]] = {
	29	+ "caq": ["Coalition_avenir_Québec", "Christine_Fréchette"],
	30	+ "plq": ["Parti_libéral_du_Québec", "Charles_Milliard"],
	31	+ "pq": ["Parti_québécois", "Paul_St-Pierre_Plamondon"],
	32	+ "qs": ["Québec_solidaire", "Ruba_Ghazal"],
	33	+ "pcq": ["Parti_conservateur_du_Québec_(2009)", "Éric_Duhaime"],
	34	+}
	35	+ELECTION_PAGE = "Élections_générales_québécoises_de_2026"
	36	+START = date(2026, 6, 1)
	37	+
	38	+
	39	+def fetch_views(title: str, start: date, end: date) -> dict[date, int]:
	40	+ url = (f"https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/metrics/pageviews/per-article/fr.wikipedia/all-access/user/"
	41	+ f"{quote(title, safe='')}/daily/{start:%Y%m%d}/{end:%Y%m%d}")
	42	+ with httpx.Client(timeout=30, headers={"User-Agent": "QC26Bot/1.0 (https://www.qc26.ca; contact@qc26.ca)"}) as c:
	43	+ r = c.get(url)
	44	+ if r.status_code == 404:
	45	+ return {}
	46	+ r.raise_for_status()
	47	+ items = r.json().get("items", [])
	48	+ return {datetime.strptime(i["timestamp"][:8], "%Y%m%d").date(): int(i["views"]) for i in items}
	49	+
	50	+
	51	+def sync_attention(s: Session) -> dict:
	52	+ src = s.get(Source, "wikipedia-pageviews")
	53	+ if not src:
	54	+ src = Source(id="wikipedia-pageviews", name="Wikimedia — pages vues Wikipédia FR (partis, chef·fes)", url="https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/", tier=3, kind="signal")
	55	+ s.add(src)
	56	+ src.last_checked_at = utcnow()
	57	+ end = date.today() - timedelta(days=1)
	58	+ n, errors = 0, 0
	59	+ # reprise : on repart 10 jours avant la dernière observation connue
	60	+ last = s.scalar(select(Signal.date).where(Signal.source == "wikipedia", Signal.key == "pageviews").order_by(Signal.date.desc()))
	61	+ start = max(START, (last - timedelta(days=10))) if last else START
	62	+ for pid, titles in PAGES.items():
	63	+ total: dict[date, int] = {}
	64	+ detail: dict[str, dict[date, int]] = {}
	65	+ for t in titles:
	66	+ try:
	67	+ v = fetch_views(t, start, end)
	68	+ detail[t] = v
	69	+ for d, x in v.items():
	70	+ total[d] = total.get(d, 0) + x
	71	+ except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
	72	+ errors += 1
	73	+ log.warning("pageviews %s : %s", t, e)
	74	+ for d, x in total.items():
	75	+ _upsert_signal(s, "wikipedia", "pageviews", pid, d, float(x), url=f"https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/{titles[0]}",
	76	+ meta={"pages": {t: detail[t].get(d) for t in detail}})
	77	+ n += 1
	78	+ try:
	79	+ for d, x in fetch_views(ELECTION_PAGE, start, end).items():
	80	+ _upsert_signal(s, "wikipedia", "pageviews_election", None, d, float(x), url=f"https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/{ELECTION_PAGE}")
	81	+ except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
	82	+ errors += 1
	83	+ log.warning("pageviews élection : %s", e)
	84	+ src.last_ok_at, src.status = utcnow(), "operational" if not errors else "degraded"
	85	+ src.detail = f"{n} observations parti-jour"
	86	+ return {"observations": n, "errors": errors, "from": start.isoformat(), "to": end.isoformat()}
	87	+
	88	+
	89	+def attention_summary(s: Session, cutoff: date \| None = None) -> dict:
	90	+ """Part d'attention 7 j, 28 j et variation, par parti ; série quotidienne des parts."""
	91	+ cutoff = cutoff or date.today()
	92	+ rows = s.execute(select(Signal.party_id, Signal.date, Signal.value).where(Signal.source == "wikipedia", Signal.key == "pageviews", Signal.date <= cutoff)).all()
	93	+ if not rows:
	94	+ return {"enabled": False}
	95	+ by_day: dict[date, dict[str, float]] = {}
	96	+ for pid, d, v in rows:
	97	+ by_day.setdefault(d, {})[pid] = v
	98	+ days = sorted(by_day)
	99	+ series = []
	100	+ for d in days:
	101	+ tot = sum(by_day[d].values()) or 1
	102	+ series.append({"date": d.isoformat(), "share": {p: round(100 * by_day[d].get(p, 0) / tot, 2) for p in PARTY_IDS}, "views": {p: by_day[d].get(p, 0) for p in PARTY_IDS}})
	103	+ last = days[-1]
	104	+ def window(n: int) -> dict[str, float]:
	105	+ w = [d for d in days if (last - d).days < n]
	106	+ tot = {p: sum(by_day[d].get(p, 0) for d in w) for p in PARTY_IDS}
	107	+ all_ = sum(tot.values()) or 1
	108	+ return {p: 100 * tot[p] / all_ for p in PARTY_IDS}
	109	+ s7, s28 = window(7), window(28)
	110	+ election = s.execute(select(Signal.date, Signal.value).where(Signal.source == "wikipedia", Signal.key == "pageviews_election", Signal.date <= cutoff).order_by(Signal.date)).all()
	111	+ return {"enabled": True, "asOf": last.isoformat(), "share7": {p: round(v, 2) for p, v in s7.items()}, "share28": {p: round(v, 2) for p, v in s28.items()},
	112	+ "delta": {p: round(s7[p] - s28[p], 2) for p in PARTY_IDS}, "series": series[-120:],
	113	+ "election": [{"date": d.isoformat(), "views": v} for d, v in election][-120:], "pages": PAGES}

added engine/qc26/signals/byelections.py +177 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,177 @@`
	1	+"""Élections partielles provinciales depuis le scrutin de 2022 — résultats officiels d'Élections Québec.
	2	+
	3	+La liste des partielles est lue sur la page « Résultats et statistiques » (liens
	4	+`resultats-partielles/AAAA-MM-JJ/<id>/`) ; la page de chaque partielle est rendue par Firecrawl
	5	+(tableau injecté en JavaScript) puis archivée (SHA-256). Le swing observé (résultat de la
	6	+partielle − résultat de l'élection générale 2022 dans la même circonscription, sur les mêmes
	7	+limites : `historical_results`) est un signal réel de terrain, utilisé avec un fort rétrécissement.
	8	+"""
	9	+from __future__ import annotations
	10	+
	11	+import logging
	12	+import re
	13	+from datetime import date
	14	+
	15	+import httpx
	16	+from sqlalchemy import select
	17	+from sqlalchemy.orm import Session
	18	+
	19	+from ..config import settings
	20	+from ..db import ByElection, HistoricalResult, Riding, Source, utcnow
	21	+from ..parties import PARTY_IDS, party_id_from_label
	22	+from ..util import http, norm_name, sha256_bytes
	23	+
	24	+log = logging.getLogger("qc26.signals.byelections")
	25	+
	26	+LIST_URL = "https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/resultats-et-statistiques/"
	27	+LINK_RE = re.compile(r"https://www\.electionsquebec\.qc\.ca/resultats-et-statistiques/resultats-partielles/(20(?:2[3-9]\|3\d)-\d{2}-\d{2})/(\d+)/")
	28	+
	29	+
	30	+def list_by_elections() -> list[tuple[date, int, str]]:
	31	+ r = http().get(LIST_URL)
	32	+ r.raise_for_status()
	33	+ out = {}
	34	+ for m in LINK_RE.finditer(r.text):
	35	+ d = date.fromisoformat(m.group(1))
	36	+ if d > date(2022, 10, 3):
	37	+ out[(d, int(m.group(2)))] = m.group(0)
	38	+ return sorted([(d, c, u) for (d, c), u in out.items()])
	39	+
	40	+
	41	+def _firecrawl_markdown(url: str) -> tuple[str, dict]:
	42	+ r = httpx.post("https://api.firecrawl.dev/v1/scrape", timeout=120, headers={"Authorization": f"Bearer {settings.firecrawl_api_key}"},
	43	+ json={"url": url, "formats": ["markdown"], "onlyMainContent": True, "waitFor": 5000})
	44	+ r.raise_for_status()
	45	+ d = r.json().get("data", {})
	46	+ return d.get("markdown") or "", d.get("metadata") or {}
	47	+
	48	+
	49	+def parse_results(md: str) -> tuple[list[dict], float \| None, str \| None]:
	50	+ """Lit le tableau « Résultats par candidature » : Personne candidate \| Appartenance \| Bulletins valides \| % \| Majorité."""
	51	+ rows = []
	52	+ riding = None
	53	+ m = re.search(r"circonscription (?:électorale )?(?:de \|d')([A-ZÉÈÀÂÎÔÛ][^\n\\|]{2,60}?)(?:\s*[\n\\|]\|$)", md)
	54	+ if m:
	55	+ riding = m.group(1).strip().rstrip(".")
	56	+ for line in md.splitlines():
	57	+ if not line.strip().startswith("\|"):
	58	+ continue
	59	+ cells = [c.strip() for c in line.strip().strip("\|").split("\|")]
	60	+ if len(cells) < 4 or cells[0].lower().startswith(("personne", "---", ":--")) or set(cells[0]) <= set("-: "):
	61	+ continue
	62	+ votes = re.sub(r"[^\d]", "", cells[2])
	63	+ pct = cells[3].replace(",", ".").replace("%", "").strip()
	64	+ if not votes.isdigit():
	65	+ continue
	66	+ try:
	67	+ share = float(re.sub(r"[^\d.]", "", pct)) if pct else None
	68	+ except ValueError:
	69	+ share = None
	70	+ label = re.sub(r"\s+", " ", cells[1])
	71	+ rows.append({"candidate": re.sub(r"\*+", "", cells[0]).strip(), "party_label": label, "party_id": party_id_from_label(label), "votes": int(votes), "share": share})
	72	+ turnout = None
	73	+ m = re.search(r"[Tt]aux de participation[^\d]{0,40}(\d{1,2}[,\.]\d{1,2})\s*%", md)
	74	+ if m:
	75	+ turnout = float(m.group(1).replace(",", "."))
	76	+ if rows and any(r["share"] is None for r in rows):
	77	+ tot = sum(r["votes"] for r in rows) or 1
	78	+ for r in rows:
	79	+ r["share"] = round(100 * r["votes"] / tot, 2)
	80	+ return rows, turnout, riding
	81	+
	82	+
	83	+def sync_by_elections(s: Session) -> dict:
	84	+ src = s.get(Source, "dgeq-partielles")
	85	+ if not src:
	86	+ src = Source(id="dgeq-partielles", name="Élections Québec — résultats des élections partielles depuis 2022", url=LIST_URL, tier=1, kind="signal")
	87	+ s.add(src)
	88	+ src.last_checked_at = utcnow()
	89	+ try:
	90	+ items = list_by_elections()
	91	+ except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
	92	+ src.status, src.detail = "degraded", str(e)[:300]
	93	+ return {"error": str(e)[:200]}
	94	+ n_new, errors = 0, 0
	95	+ for d, code, url in items:
	96	+ bid = f"{d.isoformat()}-{code}"
	97	+ row = s.get(ByElection, bid)
	98	+ if row and row.status == "ok":
	99	+ continue
	100	+ if not row:
	101	+ row = ByElection(id=bid, date=d, dgeq_code=code, url=url)
	102	+ s.add(row)
	103	+ try:
	104	+ if not settings.firecrawl_api_key:
	105	+ raise RuntimeError("Firecrawl requis (tableau rendu en JavaScript)")
	106	+ md, meta = _firecrawl_markdown(url)
	107	+ if not md.strip():
	108	+ raise RuntimeError("page vide")
	109	+ results, turnout, riding = parse_results(md)
	110	+ if len(results) < 2:
	111	+ raise RuntimeError("tableau de résultats introuvable")
	112	+ sha = sha256_bytes(md.encode())
	113	+ path = settings.archive_dir / "partielles" / f"{sha}.md"
	114	+ path.write_text(md)
	115	+ row.sha256, row.path = sha, str(path)
	116	+ row.results, row.turnout = results, turnout
	117	+ # l'identifiant de l'URL est le code DGEQ de la circonscription (carte 2017) → résultats 2022 par code
	118	+ name, prev = previous_general_by_code(s, code)
	119	+ row.riding_name = name or riding or _riding_from_title(meta.get("title") or "")
	120	+ row.winner_party_id = max(results, key=lambda r: r["votes"])["party_id"]
	121	+ row.previous = prev or previous_general(s, row.riding_name)
	122	+ row.status = "ok"
	123	+ n_new += 1
	124	+ except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
	125	+ errors += 1
	126	+ row.status = "failed"
	127	+ log.warning("partielle %s : %s", url, e)
	128	+ s.commit()
	129	+ src.last_ok_at, src.status = utcnow(), "operational" if not errors else "degraded"
	130	+ src.detail = f"{len(items)} partielles depuis 2022, {n_new} mises à jour"
	131	+ return {"listed": len(items), "updated": n_new, "errors": errors}
	132	+
	133	+
	134	+def _riding_from_title(title: str) -> str \| None:
	135	+ m = re.search(r"partielle[^–\-][–\-]\s([^–\-\|]+?)\s*(?:[–\-\|]\|$)", title)
	136	+ return m.group(1).strip() if m else None
	137	+
	138	+
	139	+def previous_general_by_code(s: Session, code: int) -> tuple[str \| None, dict \| None]:
	140	+ rows = s.scalars(select(HistoricalResult).where(HistoricalResult.election_date == date(2022, 10, 3), HistoricalResult.riding_code == code)).all()
	141	+ if not rows:
	142	+ return None, None
	143	+ return rows[0].riding_name, {h.party_id: round(h.share, 2) for h in rows if h.party_id} or None
	144	+
	145	+
	146	+def previous_general(s: Session, riding_name: str \| None) -> dict \| None:
	147	+ """Parts 2022 (élection générale, mêmes limites) de la circonscription nommée."""
	148	+ if not riding_name:
	149	+ return None
	150	+ key = norm_name(riding_name)
	151	+ rows = s.scalars(select(HistoricalResult).where(HistoricalResult.election_date == date(2022, 10, 3))).all()
	152	+ match = [h for h in rows if norm_name(h.riding_name) == key]
	153	+ if not match:
	154	+ # tolère un nom partiel (ex. « Jean-Talon » vs « Jean-Talon (Québec) »)
	155	+ match = [h for h in rows if key in norm_name(h.riding_name) or norm_name(h.riding_name) in key]
	156	+ if not match:
	157	+ return None
	158	+ out = {}
	159	+ for h in match:
	160	+ if h.party_id:
	161	+ out[h.party_id] = round(h.share, 2)
	162	+ return out or None
	163	+
	164	+
	165	+def byelection_summary(s: Session) -> dict:
	166	+ rows = s.scalars(select(ByElection).where(ByElection.status == "ok").order_by(ByElection.date)).all()
	167	+ out = []
	168	+ swings: dict[str, list[float]] = {p: [] for p in PARTY_IDS}
	169	+ for b in rows:
	170	+ res = {r["party_id"]: r["share"] for r in (b.results or []) if r.get("party_id")}
	171	+ swing = {p: round(res.get(p, 0.0) - (b.previous or {}).get(p, 0.0), 1) for p in PARTY_IDS if b.previous and (p in res or p in b.previous)}
	172	+ for p, v in swing.items():
	173	+ swings[p].append(v)
	174	+ out.append({"id": b.id, "date": b.date.isoformat(), "riding": b.riding_name, "code": b.dgeq_code, "url": b.url, "turnout": b.turnout, "winner": b.winner_party_id,
	175	+ "results": sorted((b.results or []), key=lambda r: -r["votes"]), "previous": b.previous, "swing": swing, "archiveSha": b.sha256})
	176	+ return {"enabled": bool(out), "byElections": out,
	177	+ "meanSwing": {p: (round(sum(v) / len(v), 1) if v else None) for p, v in swings.items()}, "n": len(out)}

added engine/qc26/signals/fundamentals.py +230 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,230 @@`
	1	+"""Fondamentaux tirés des questions de leadership des sondages déjà archivés.
	2	+
	3	+Les rapports des firmes contiennent, au-delà des intentions de vote, des questions que le modèle
	4	+1.x ignorait : satisfaction à l'égard du gouvernement, meilleur·e premier·ère ministre, favorabilité
	5	+des chef·fes, deuxième choix, appui à la souveraineté. Elles sont extraites du champ
	6	+`notes.leadership` de chaque sondage (page citée dans le document) et normalisées ici en séries
	7	+(`signals`, source = polls-leadership). Aucune valeur n'est saisie à la main.
	8	+
	9	+Utilisation dans le modèle 2.0 :
	10	+- satisfaction du gouvernement → prior « fondamentaux » sur la part du parti sortant ;
	11	+- meilleur PM vs intention de vote → composante de momentum « prime au chef » (bornée).
	12	+"""
	13	+from __future__ import annotations
	14	+
	15	+import logging
	16	+import re
	17	+from collections import defaultdict
	18	+from datetime import date, timedelta
	19	+
	20	+from sqlalchemy import select
	21	+from sqlalchemy.orm import Session
	22	+
	23	+from ..config import settings
	24	+from ..db import Poll, Signal, Source, utcnow
	25	+from ..parties import PARTY_IDS, party_id_from_label
	26	+from .markets import _upsert_signal
	27	+
	28	+log = logging.getLogger("qc26.signals.fundamentals")
	29	+
	30	+LEADERS: dict[str, str] = { # nom (normalisé, sans accents) → parti — chef·fes / porte-parole interrogés par les firmes
	31	+ "frechette": "caq", "legault": "caq",
	32	+ "milliard": "plq", "tanguay": "plq", "rodriguez": "plq",
	33	+ "plamondon": "pq", "pspp": "pq",
	34	+ "ghazal": "qs", "nadeau-dubois": "qs", "nadeau dubois": "qs", "palardy": "qs", "zaga": "qs",
	35	+ "duhaime": "pcq",
	36	+}
	37	+INCUMBENT = "caq"
	38	+
	39	+
	40	+def _norm(s: str) -> str:
	41	+ import unicodedata
	42	+ s = unicodedata.normalize("NFKD", s or "")
	43	+ return "".join(c for c in s if not unicodedata.combining(c)).lower()
	44	+
	45	+
	46	+def leader_party(name: str) -> str \| None:
	47	+ n = _norm(name)
	48	+ for k, p in LEADERS.items():
	49	+ if k in n:
	50	+ return p
	51	+ return party_id_from_label(name)
	52	+
	53	+
	54	+def _num(v) -> float \| None:
	55	+ try:
	56	+ return float(v)
	57	+ except (TypeError, ValueError):
	58	+ return None
	59	+
	60	+
	61	+def _satisfied(values: dict) -> float \| None:
	62	+ """Part « satisfait » : total satisfait, ou somme très/plutôt/assez satisfait (hors NSP)."""
	63	+ vals = {_norm(k): _num(v) for k, v in values.items()}
	64	+ for k, v in vals.items():
	65	+ if v is not None and ("total satisfait" in k or k.strip() == "satisfait" or k.startswith("satisfait")):
	66	+ return v
	67	+ parts = [v for k, v in vals.items() if v is not None and re.search(r"(tres\|plutot\|assez) satisfait", k) and "insatisfait" not in k]
	68	+ if parts:
	69	+ return sum(parts)
	70	+ for k, v in vals.items():
	71	+ if v is not None and ("bonne direction" in k or "excellent" in k):
	72	+ return v
	73	+ return None
	74	+
	75	+
	76	+def _dissatisfied(values: dict) -> float \| None:
	77	+ vals = {_norm(k): _num(v) for k, v in values.items()}
	78	+ for k, v in vals.items():
	79	+ if v is not None and ("total insatisfait" in k or k.strip() == "insatisfait" or k.startswith("insatisfait")):
	80	+ return v
	81	+ parts = [v for k, v in vals.items() if v is not None and re.search(r"(tres\|plutot\|assez) insatisfait", k)]
	82	+ if parts:
	83	+ return sum(parts)
	84	+ for k, v in vals.items():
	85	+ if v is not None and "mauvaise direction" in k:
	86	+ return v
	87	+ return None
	88	+
	89	+
	90	+def extract_from_polls(s: Session) -> dict:
	91	+ """Relit toutes les questions de leadership archivées et (ré)écrit les séries dérivées."""
	92	+ src = s.get(Source, "polls-leadership")
	93	+ if not src:
	94	+ src = Source(id="polls-leadership", name="Questions de leadership des rapports de sondage (satisfaction, meilleur PM, favorabilité, 2e choix, souveraineté)", url="/sondages", tier=2, kind="signal")
	95	+ s.add(src)
	96	+ src.last_checked_at = utcnow()
	97	+ polls = s.scalars(select(Poll).where(Poll.excluded == False)).all() # noqa: E712
	98	+ n = 0
	99	+ for p in polls:
	100	+ lead = (p.notes or {}).get("leadership") or []
	101	+ if not isinstance(lead, list):
	102	+ continue
	103	+ url = p.source_url
	104	+ for q in lead:
	105	+ if not isinstance(q, dict):
	106	+ continue
	107	+ question = _norm(str(q.get("question") or ""))
	108	+ values = q.get("values") or {}
	109	+ if not isinstance(values, dict) or not values:
	110	+ continue
	111	+ meta = {"poll_id": p.id, "pollster": p.pollster_id, "question": q.get("question"), "page": q.get("page")}
	112	+ if "satisf" in question or "direction du quebec" in question or "appreciation du travail" in question:
	113	+ # satisfaction du gouvernement en place (exclure les questions rétrospectives « huit années »)
	114	+ if "huit ann" in question or "8 ann" in question or "bilan" in question:
	115	+ key = "satisfaction_bilan"
	116	+ else:
	117	+ key = "satisfaction"
	118	+ sat, dis = _satisfied(values), _dissatisfied(values)
	119	+ if sat is not None:
	120	+ _upsert_signal(s, "polls-leadership", key, INCUMBENT, p.fieldwork_end, sat, url=url, meta={**meta, "dissatisfied": dis}, n=p.sample_size)
	121	+ n += 1
	122	+ if sat is not None and dis is not None:
	123	+ _upsert_signal(s, "polls-leadership", key + "_net", INCUMBENT, p.fieldwork_end, sat - dis, url=url, meta=meta, n=p.sample_size)
	124	+ elif "meilleur premier" in question or "meilleur chef" in question or "meilleure premi" in question or "meilleur pm" in question:
	125	+ by_party: dict[str, float] = defaultdict(float)
	126	+ for k, v in values.items():
	127	+ pid = leader_party(k)
	128	+ x = _num(v)
	129	+ if pid and x is not None:
	130	+ by_party[pid] += x
	131	+ tot = sum(by_party.values())
	132	+ for pid, x in by_party.items():
	133	+ _upsert_signal(s, "polls-leadership", "best_pm", pid, p.fieldwork_end, x, url=url, meta={**meta, "decided_total": tot}, n=p.sample_size)
	134	+ if tot > 0:
	135	+ _upsert_signal(s, "polls-leadership", "best_pm_share", pid, p.fieldwork_end, round(100 * x / tot, 2), url=url, meta=meta, n=p.sample_size)
	136	+ n += 1
	137	+ elif "changement" in question and "leader" in question or "represente le plus le changement" in question:
	138	+ for k, v in values.items():
	139	+ pid = leader_party(k)
	140	+ x = _num(v)
	141	+ if pid and x is not None:
	142	+ _upsert_signal(s, "polls-leadership", "change_leader", pid, p.fieldwork_end, x, url=url, meta=meta, n=p.sample_size)
	143	+ n += 1
	144	+ elif "favorab" in question or "impression" in question or "opinion favorable" in question:
	145	+ # deux formes : un chef par question (échelle) ou tous les chefs (part favorable)
	146	+ single = None
	147	+ m = re.search(r"-\s([a-z' \-]+?)\s\(", question)
	148	+ for k in LEADERS:
	149	+ if k in question:
	150	+ single = LEADERS[k]
	151	+ break
	152	+ if single:
	153	+ vals = {_norm(k): _num(v) for k, v in values.items()}
	154	+ fav = sum(v for k, v in vals.items() if v is not None and "favorable" in k and "defavorable" not in k)
	155	+ unf = sum(v for k, v in vals.items() if v is not None and "defavorable" in k)
	156	+ if fav or unf:
	157	+ _upsert_signal(s, "polls-leadership", "leader_favorable", single, p.fieldwork_end, fav, url=url, meta={**meta, "unfavorable": unf}, n=p.sample_size)
	158	+ _upsert_signal(s, "polls-leadership", "leader_net_favorable", single, p.fieldwork_end, fav - unf, url=url, meta=meta, n=p.sample_size)
	159	+ n += 1
	160	+ else:
	161	+ key = "leader_unfavorable" if "defavorable" in question and "favorable)" not in question.replace("defavorable", "") else "leader_favorable"
	162	+ if "(defavorable)" in question or "défavorable)" in question:
	163	+ key = "leader_unfavorable"
	164	+ for k, v in values.items():
	165	+ pid = leader_party(k)
	166	+ x = _num(v)
	167	+ if pid and x is not None:
	168	+ _upsert_signal(s, "polls-leadership", key, pid, p.fieldwork_end, x, url=url, meta=meta, n=p.sample_size)
	169	+ n += 1
	170	+ elif "deuxieme choix" in question or "second choix" in question or "2e choix" in question:
	171	+ for k, v in values.items():
	172	+ pid = party_id_from_label(k)
	173	+ x = _num(v)
	174	+ if pid and x is not None:
	175	+ _upsert_signal(s, "polls-leadership", "second_choice", pid, p.fieldwork_end, x, url=url, meta=meta, n=p.sample_size)
	176	+ n += 1
	177	+ elif "souverainet" in question or "referendum" in question or "independance" in question:
	178	+ vals = {_norm(k): _num(v) for k, v in values.items()}
	179	+ yes = next((v for k, v in vals.items() if v is not None and (k.startswith("pour") or k.startswith("oui"))), None)
	180	+ no = next((v for k, v in vals.items() if v is not None and (k.startswith("contre") or k.startswith("non"))), None)
	181	+ if yes is not None:
	182	+ _upsert_signal(s, "polls-leadership", "sovereignty_yes", None, p.fieldwork_end, yes, url=url, meta={**meta, "no": no, "redistributed": "repartition" in question}, n=p.sample_size)
	183	+ n += 1
	184	+ src.last_ok_at, src.status, src.detail = utcnow(), "operational", f"{n} observations dérivées"
	185	+ return {"observations": n}
	186	+
	187	+
	188	+def _weighted_recent(rows: list[tuple[date, float, int \| None]], cutoff: date, halflife: float = 30.0) -> tuple[float \| None, int]:
	189	+ if not rows:
	190	+ return None, 0
	191	+ num = den = 0.0
	192	+ for d, v, n in rows:
	193	+ w = 0.5 ** (max(0, (cutoff - d).days) / halflife) * ((min(n or 1000, 2500) / 1000.0) ** 0.5)
	194	+ num += w * v
	195	+ den += w
	196	+ return (num / den if den else None), len(rows)
	197	+
	198	+
	199	+def fundamentals_summary(s: Session, cutoff: date \| None = None) -> dict:
	200	+ """État courant des fondamentaux : satisfaction (pondérée récence), meilleur PM par parti, favorabilité nette, 2e choix, souveraineté."""
	201	+ cutoff = cutoff or date.today()
	202	+ since = cutoff - timedelta(days=150)
	203	+ rows = s.execute(select(Signal.key, Signal.party_id, Signal.date, Signal.value, Signal.n, Signal.meta).where(Signal.source == "polls-leadership", Signal.date <= cutoff, Signal.date >= since)).all()
	204	+ by: dict[tuple[str, str \| None], list] = defaultdict(list)
	205	+ for key, pid, d, v, n, meta in rows:
	206	+ by[(key, pid)].append((d, v, n))
	207	+ sat, n_sat = _weighted_recent(by.get(("satisfaction", INCUMBENT), []), cutoff)
	208	+ sat_net, _ = _weighted_recent(by.get(("satisfaction_net", INCUMBENT), []), cutoff)
	209	+ bilan, _ = _weighted_recent(by.get(("satisfaction_bilan", INCUMBENT), []), cutoff)
	210	+ best_pm = {p: _weighted_recent(by.get(("best_pm_share", p), []), cutoff)[0] for p in PARTY_IDS}
	211	+ best_pm_raw = {p: _weighted_recent(by.get(("best_pm", p), []), cutoff)[0] for p in PARTY_IDS}
	212	+ net_fav = {p: _weighted_recent(by.get(("leader_net_favorable", p), []), cutoff)[0] for p in PARTY_IDS}
	213	+ fav = {p: _weighted_recent(by.get(("leader_favorable", p), []), cutoff)[0] for p in PARTY_IDS}
	214	+ change = {p: _weighted_recent(by.get(("change_leader", p), []), cutoff)[0] for p in PARTY_IDS}
	215	+ second = {p: _weighted_recent(by.get(("second_choice", p), []), cutoff)[0] for p in PARTY_IDS}
	216	+ sov, n_sov = _weighted_recent(by.get(("sovereignty_yes", None), []), cutoff)
	217	+ # séries pour les graphiques
	218	+ all_rows = s.execute(select(Signal.key, Signal.party_id, Signal.date, Signal.value, Signal.meta).where(Signal.source == "polls-leadership", Signal.date <= cutoff).order_by(Signal.date)).all()
	219	+ series: dict[str, list] = defaultdict(list)
	220	+ for key, pid, d, v, meta in all_rows:
	221	+ if key in ("satisfaction", "best_pm_share", "leader_net_favorable", "sovereignty_yes", "satisfaction_net"):
	222	+ series[key].append({"date": d.isoformat(), "party": pid, "value": v, "poll": (meta or {}).get("poll_id"), "pollster": (meta or {}).get("pollster")})
	223	+ return {"enabled": sat is not None or any(v is not None for v in best_pm.values()), "asOf": cutoff.isoformat(), "incumbent": INCUMBENT,
	224	+ "satisfaction": None if sat is None else round(sat, 1), "satisfactionNet": None if sat_net is None else round(sat_net, 1), "satisfactionPolls": n_sat,
	225	+ "satisfactionBilan": None if bilan is None else round(bilan, 1),
	226	+ "bestPmShare": {p: (round(v, 1) if v is not None else None) for p, v in best_pm.items()}, "bestPm": {p: (round(v, 1) if v is not None else None) for p, v in best_pm_raw.items()},
	227	+ "leaderNetFavorable": {p: (round(v, 1) if v is not None else None) for p, v in net_fav.items()}, "leaderFavorable": {p: (round(v, 1) if v is not None else None) for p, v in fav.items()},
	228	+ "changeLeader": {p: (round(v, 1) if v is not None else None) for p, v in change.items()}, "secondChoice": {p: (round(v, 1) if v is not None else None) for p, v in second.items()},
	229	+ "sovereigntyYes": None if sov is None else round(sov, 1), "sovereigntyPolls": n_sov, "series": dict(series),
	230	+ "params": {"alpha": settings.fundamentals_alpha, "beta": settings.fundamentals_beta, "sd": settings.fundamentals_sd_pp, "weightMax": settings.fundamentals_weight_max, "horizonDays": settings.fundamentals_horizon_days}}

added engine/qc26/signals/markets.py +226 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,226 @@`
	1	+"""Marchés de prédiction — Polymarket (API Gamma publique, lecture seule, sans clé).
	2	+
	3	+Marchés suivis (événements listés dans `settings.polymarket_event_slugs`) :
	4	+- « le plus de sièges » par parti (kind = most_seats) ;
	5	+- « majorité PQ » (kind = majority) ;
	6	+- tranches de sièges par parti (kind = seats_band) ;
	7	+- 2e / 3e place (kind = place).
	8	+
	9	+Chaque prix « Oui » est horodaté (historique quotidien via l'API CLOB `prices-history`) et
	10	+stocké tel quel. Les probabilités implicites d'un même événement (plusieurs marchés
	11	+mutuellement exclusifs) sont renormalisées à la lecture, jamais à l'écriture.
	12	+"""
	13	+from __future__ import annotations
	14	+
	15	+import json
	16	+import logging
	17	+import re
	18	+from datetime import date, datetime, timedelta, timezone
	19	+
	20	+import httpx
	21	+from sqlalchemy import select
	22	+from sqlalchemy.orm import Session
	23	+
	24	+from ..config import settings
	25	+from ..db import Market, MarketPrice, Signal, Source, utcnow
	26	+from ..parties import PARTY_IDS, party_id_from_label
	27	+
	28	+log = logging.getLogger("qc26.signals.markets")
	29	+
	30	+PARTY_PATTERNS = [
	31	+ ("caq", re.compile(r"coalition avenir\|\bCAQ\b", re.I)),
	32	+ ("plq", re.compile(r"lib[ée]ral\|\bPLQ\b", re.I)),
	33	+ ("pq", re.compile(r"parti qu[ée]b[ée]cois\|\bPQ\b", re.I)),
	34	+ ("qs", re.compile(r"solidaire\|\bQS\b", re.I)),
	35	+ ("pcq", re.compile(r"conservateur\|conservative\|\bPCQ\b", re.I)),
	36	+]
	37	+
	38	+
	39	+def _party(question: str) -> str \| None:
	40	+ for pid, rx in PARTY_PATTERNS:
	41	+ if rx.search(question):
	42	+ return pid
	43	+ return None
	44	+
	45	+
	46	+def classify(question: str, event_slug: str) -> tuple[str \| None, dict]:
	47	+ q = question
	48	+ pid = _party(q)
	49	+ if re.search(r"most seats", q, re.I):
	50	+ return ("most_seats" if pid else None), {"party_id": pid}
	51	+ if re.search(r"majority", q, re.I):
	52	+ return "majority", {"party_id": pid}
	53	+ m = re.search(r"win (?:fewer than\|less than) (\d+) seats", q, re.I)
	54	+ if m:
	55	+ return "seats_band", {"party_id": pid, "band_lo": 0, "band_hi": int(m.group(1)) - 1}
	56	+ m = re.search(r"win (\d+)-(\d+) seats", q, re.I)
	57	+ if m:
	58	+ return "seats_band", {"party_id": pid, "band_lo": int(m.group(1)), "band_hi": int(m.group(2))}
	59	+ m = re.search(r"win (\d+) or more seats", q, re.I)
	60	+ if m:
	61	+ return "seats_band", {"party_id": pid, "band_lo": int(m.group(1)), "band_hi": None}
	62	+ m = re.search(r"finish in (second\|third\|2nd\|3rd) place", q, re.I)
	63	+ if m:
	64	+ place = 2 if m.group(1).lower() in ("second", "2nd") else 3
	65	+ return ("place" if pid else None), {"party_id": pid, "place": place}
	66	+ return None, {}
	67	+
	68	+
	69	+def _client() -> httpx.Client:
	70	+ return httpx.Client(timeout=httpx.Timeout(40.0, connect=15.0), headers={"User-Agent": settings.user_agent, "Accept": "application/json"})
	71	+
	72	+
	73	+def fetch_event(slug: str) -> dict \| None:
	74	+ with _client() as c:
	75	+ r = c.get(f"{settings.polymarket_gamma}/events", params={"slug": slug})
	76	+ r.raise_for_status()
	77	+ data = r.json()
	78	+ return data[0] if data else None
	79	+
	80	+
	81	+def fetch_history(token_id: str, fidelity_minutes: int = 1440) -> list[tuple[datetime, float]]:
	82	+ with _client() as c:
	83	+ r = c.get(f"{settings.polymarket_clob}/prices-history", params={"market": token_id, "interval": "max", "fidelity": fidelity_minutes})
	84	+ r.raise_for_status()
	85	+ hist = r.json().get("history", []) or []
	86	+ return [(datetime.fromtimestamp(h["t"], tz=timezone.utc), float(h["p"])) for h in hist if "t" in h and "p" in h]
	87	+
	88	+
	89	+def sync_markets(s: Session, with_history: bool = True) -> dict:
	90	+ """Met à jour les marchés suivis, leurs prix courants et l'historique quotidien."""
	91	+ slugs = [x.strip() for x in settings.polymarket_event_slugs.split(",") if x.strip()]
	92	+ src = s.get(Source, "polymarket")
	93	+ if not src:
	94	+ src = Source(id="polymarket", name="Polymarket — marchés de prédiction (Québec 2026)", url="https://polymarket.com/event/quebec-general-election-winner", tier=3, kind="signal")
	95	+ s.add(src)
	96	+ src.last_checked_at = utcnow()
	97	+ n_markets, n_prices, errors = 0, 0, 0
	98	+ today = date.today()
	99	+ for slug in slugs:
	100	+ try:
	101	+ ev = fetch_event(slug)
	102	+ except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
	103	+ errors += 1
	104	+ log.warning("polymarket %s : %s", slug, e)
	105	+ continue
	106	+ if not ev:
	107	+ continue
	108	+ for m in ev.get("markets", []) or []:
	109	+ q = m.get("question") or ""
	110	+ kind, meta = classify(q, slug)
	111	+ if not kind or (kind != "majority" and not meta.get("party_id")):
	112	+ continue
	113	+ prices = m.get("outcomePrices")
	114	+ try:
	115	+ prices = json.loads(prices) if isinstance(prices, str) else prices
	116	+ yes = float(prices[0]) if prices else None
	117	+ except (TypeError, ValueError, IndexError):
	118	+ yes = None
	119	+ if yes is None:
	120	+ continue
	121	+ tokens = m.get("clobTokenIds")
	122	+ try:
	123	+ tokens = json.loads(tokens) if isinstance(tokens, str) else tokens
	124	+ except (TypeError, ValueError):
	125	+ tokens = None
	126	+ mid = str(m.get("id"))
	127	+ row = s.get(Market, mid)
	128	+ if not row:
	129	+ row = Market(id=mid, event_slug=slug)
	130	+ s.add(row)
	131	+ row.event_title = ev.get("title")
	132	+ row.question = q[:300]
	133	+ row.kind = kind
	134	+ row.party_id = meta.get("party_id")
	135	+ row.band_lo, row.band_hi, row.place = meta.get("band_lo"), meta.get("band_hi"), meta.get("place")
	136	+ row.condition_id = m.get("conditionId")
	137	+ row.token_id = tokens[0] if tokens else None
	138	+ row.volume = float(m.get("volume") or 0) if m.get("volume") is not None else None
	139	+ row.liquidity = float(m.get("liquidity") or 0) if m.get("liquidity") is not None else None
	140	+ row.end_date = m.get("endDate")
	141	+ row.url = f"https://polymarket.com/event/{slug}"
	142	+ row.last_price, row.best_bid, row.best_ask = yes, m.get("bestBid"), m.get("bestAsk")
	143	+ row.active = not bool(m.get("closed"))
	144	+ n_markets += 1
	145	+ # prix courant → observation du jour (une par jour et par marché, écrasée)
	146	+ _upsert_signal(s, "polymarket", f"{kind}:{mid}", row.party_id, today, yes, url=row.url,
	147	+ meta={"question": q, "kind": kind, "band": [row.band_lo, row.band_hi], "place": row.place, "volume": row.volume})
	148	+ if with_history and row.token_id:
	149	+ try:
	150	+ hist = fetch_history(row.token_id)
	151	+ except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
	152	+ log.debug("historique %s : %s", mid, e)
	153	+ hist = []
	154	+ known = {ts for (ts,) in s.execute(select(MarketPrice.ts).where(MarketPrice.market_id == mid)).all()}
	155	+ known_days = {k.date() for k in known}
	156	+ for ts, p in hist:
	157	+ d = ts.date()
	158	+ if d in known_days:
	159	+ continue
	160	+ s.add(MarketPrice(market_id=mid, ts=ts, price=p))
	161	+ known_days.add(d)
	162	+ n_prices += 1
	163	+ s.flush()
	164	+ src.last_ok_at, src.status = utcnow(), "operational" if not errors else "degraded"
	165	+ src.detail = f"{n_markets} marchés suivis, {n_prices} points d'historique ajoutés"
	166	+ return {"markets": n_markets, "prices_added": n_prices, "errors": errors}
	167	+
	168	+
	169	+def _upsert_signal(s: Session, source: str, key: str, party_id: str \| None, d: date, value: float, url: str \| None = None, meta: dict \| None = None, n: int \| None = None) -> None:
	170	+ row = s.scalar(select(Signal).where(Signal.source == source, Signal.key == key, Signal.party_id == party_id, Signal.date == d))
	171	+ if row:
	172	+ row.value, row.meta, row.url, row.n = value, meta, url, n
	173	+ else:
	174	+ s.add(Signal(source=source, key=key, party_id=party_id, date=d, value=value, meta=meta, url=url, n=n))
	175	+
	176	+
	177	+# ------------------------------------------------------------------ lecture
	178	+def implied(s: Session) -> dict:
	179	+ """Probabilités implicites courantes : plus de sièges (renormalisées entre partis), majorité,
	180	+ tranches de sièges (renormalisées → moyenne implicite), 2e/3e place. Marchés trop peu liquides
	181	+ ou périmés ignorés (settings)."""
	182	+ cutoff = utcnow() - timedelta(hours=settings.markets_max_age_hours)
	183	+ rows = s.scalars(select(Market).where(Market.active == True)).all() # noqa: E712
	184	+ rows = [m for m in rows if m.updated_at and m.updated_at.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc) >= cutoff and m.last_price is not None]
	185	+ out: dict = {"source": "polymarket", "asOf": None, "mostSeats": {}, "majority": {}, "seatBands": {}, "place": {2: {}, 3: {}}, "volume": 0.0, "markets": []}
	186	+ if not rows:
	187	+ return out
	188	+ out["asOf"] = max(m.updated_at for m in rows).isoformat()
	189	+ most = {m.party_id: m.last_price for m in rows if m.kind == "most_seats" and m.party_id}
	190	+ tot = sum(most.values())
	191	+ vol_most = sum((m.volume or 0) for m in rows if m.kind == "most_seats")
	192	+ if tot > 0 and vol_most >= settings.markets_min_volume:
	193	+ out["mostSeats"] = {p: round(v / tot, 4) for p, v in most.items()}
	194	+ out["mostSeatsRaw"] = {p: round(v, 4) for p, v in most.items()}
	195	+ for m in rows:
	196	+ if m.kind == "majority" and m.party_id:
	197	+ out["majority"][m.party_id] = round(m.last_price, 4)
	198	+ bands: dict[str, list] = {}
	199	+ for m in rows:
	200	+ if m.kind == "seats_band" and m.party_id:
	201	+ bands.setdefault(m.party_id, []).append((m.band_lo or 0, m.band_hi, m.last_price))
	202	+ for pid, bs in bands.items():
	203	+ tot = sum(p for _, _, p in bs) or 1
	204	+ norm = [(lo, hi, p / tot) for lo, hi, p in sorted(bs, key=lambda z: z[0])]
	205	+ mean = sum(((lo + (hi if hi is not None else lo + 8)) / 2) * p for lo, hi, p in norm)
	206	+ out["seatBands"][pid] = {"bands": [{"lo": lo, "hi": hi, "p": round(p, 4)} for lo, hi, p in norm], "impliedMean": round(mean, 1)}
	207	+ for m in rows:
	208	+ if m.kind == "place" and m.party_id and m.place in (2, 3):
	209	+ out["place"][m.place][m.party_id] = round(m.last_price, 4)
	210	+ out["volume"] = round(sum((m.volume or 0) for m in rows), 0)
	211	+ out["markets"] = [{"id": m.id, "question": m.question, "kind": m.kind, "party": m.party_id, "price": m.last_price, "bid": m.best_bid, "ask": m.best_ask,
	212	+ "volume": m.volume, "liquidity": m.liquidity, "url": m.url, "updatedAt": m.updated_at.isoformat() if m.updated_at else None,
	213	+ "band": [m.band_lo, m.band_hi] if m.kind == "seats_band" else None, "place": m.place} for m in sorted(rows, key=lambda z: -(z.volume or 0))]
	214	+ return out
	215	+
	216	+
	217	+def history(s: Session, days: int = 120) -> dict:
	218	+ """Séries quotidiennes des prix « plus de sièges » et « majorité » (pour les graphiques)."""
	219	+ since = utcnow() - timedelta(days=days)
	220	+ rows = s.execute(select(MarketPrice, Market).join(Market, Market.id == MarketPrice.market_id)
	221	+ .where(MarketPrice.ts >= since, Market.kind.in_(["most_seats", "majority"])).order_by(MarketPrice.ts)).all()
	222	+ series: dict[str, dict[str, float]] = {}
	223	+ for mp, m in rows:
	224	+ key = f"{m.kind}:{m.party_id}"
	225	+ series.setdefault(key, {})[mp.ts.date().isoformat()] = round(mp.price, 4)
	226	+ return {"series": {k: [{"date": d, "p": p} for d, p in sorted(v.items())] for k, v in series.items()}}

added engine/qc26/signals/media.py +267 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,267 @@`
	1	+"""Couverture médiatique — deux sources complémentaires :
	2	+
	3	+1. GDELT DOC 2.0 (public, sans clé, 1 requête / 5 s) : volume de couverture (part des articles
	4	+ mondiaux surveillés mentionnant le parti/chef, source Canada, français) et ton moyen, par jour.
	5	+2. Actualités (Serper — Google Actualités, clé requise) : titres des dernières 48 h par parti ;
	6	+ un modèle de langage classe chaque titre (partis concernés, ton −1…+1, sujet). Les titres, médias,
	7	+ dates et URL sont conservés (`media_items`) : la « revue de presse » du site est reconstituable.
	8	+
	9	+Le LLM propose, la validation décide : partis inconnus ignorés, ton hors [−1, 1] écarté,
	10	+titres non politiques rejetés (topic « hors sujet »). Le ton n'entre dans le modèle que comme
	11	+composante de momentum bornée et il est toujours affiché séparément.
	12	+"""
	13	+from __future__ import annotations
	14	+
	15	+import logging
	16	+import re
	17	+import time
	18	+from datetime import date, datetime, timedelta, timezone
	19	+from urllib.parse import urlparse
	20	+
	21	+import httpx
	22	+from sqlalchemy import func, select
	23	+from sqlalchemy.orm import Session
	24	+
	25	+from .. import llm
	26	+from ..config import settings
	27	+from ..db import MediaItem, Signal, Source, utcnow
	28	+from ..parties import PARTY_IDS
	29	+from ..util import parse_fr_date
	30	+from .markets import _upsert_signal
	31	+
	32	+log = logging.getLogger("qc26.signals.media")
	33	+
	34	+GDELT_QUERIES: dict[str, str] = {
	35	+ "caq": '("Coalition avenir Québec" OR "Coalition Avenir Quebec" OR "Christine Fréchette" OR "Christine Frechette")',
	36	+ "plq": '("Parti libéral du Québec" OR "Charles Milliard" OR "libéraux provinciaux")',
	37	+ "pq": '("Parti québécois" OR "Parti Québécois" OR "St-Pierre Plamondon")',
	38	+ "qs": '("Québec solidaire" OR "Quebec solidaire" OR "Ruba Ghazal")',
	39	+ "pcq": '("Parti conservateur du Québec" OR "Éric Duhaime" OR "Eric Duhaime")',
	40	+}
	41	+NEWS_QUERIES: dict[str, str] = {
	42	+ "caq": "CAQ Christine Fréchette",
	43	+ "plq": "PLQ Charles Milliard libéraux",
	44	+ "pq": "Parti québécois St-Pierre Plamondon",
	45	+ "qs": "Québec solidaire Ruba Ghazal",
	46	+ "pcq": "Parti conservateur du Québec Duhaime",
	47	+ "general": "élections Québec 2026 campagne électorale",
	48	+}
	49	+
	50	+CLASSIFY_SYSTEM = """Tu es l'analyste de presse de QC26, plateforme indépendante et neutre d'analyse de l'élection québécoise 2026.
	51	+On te donne une liste de titres d'articles (avec média et extrait). Pour CHAQUE titre, indique :
	52	+- "parties" : dictionnaire {sigle: ton} pour les partis provinciaux québécois réellement concernés par le titre parmi CAQ, PLQ, PQ, QS, PCQ.
	53	+ Le ton est un nombre entre -1 (très défavorable au parti : scandale, recul, critique) et +1 (très favorable : gain, appui, succès), 0 = neutre/factuel.
	54	+ Ne mets un parti que s'il est explicitement concerné (nom du parti, de son chef ou de sa cheffe, d'un candidat clairement identifié).
	55	+- "topic" : un mot-clé parmi economie, sante, education, immigration, langue, environnement, souverainete, ethique, campagne, sondage, autre, hors_sujet (hors_sujet = pas de politique provinciale québécoise).
	56	+- "summary" : reformulation neutre en ≤ 15 mots.
	57	+Ne devine pas : si le ton est indéterminable, mets 0. N'invente aucun parti.
	58	+Réponds avec {"items": [{"i": index, "parties": {...}, "topic": "...", "summary": "..."}]}."""
	59	+
	60	+
	61	+def _gdelt(query: str, mode: str, timespan: str = "60d") -> dict:
	62	+ with httpx.Client(timeout=60, headers={"User-Agent": settings.user_agent}) as c:
	63	+ r = c.get("https://api.gdeltproject.org/api/v2/doc/doc", params={"query": f"{query} sourcecountry:CA sourcelang:french", "mode": mode, "timespan": timespan, "format": "json"})
	64	+ r.raise_for_status()
	65	+ txt = r.text.strip()
	66	+ if not txt.startswith("{"):
	67	+ raise RuntimeError(txt[:160])
	68	+ return r.json()
	69	+
	70	+
	71	+def sync_gdelt(s: Session) -> dict:
	72	+ src = s.get(Source, "gdelt")
	73	+ if not src:
	74	+ src = Source(id="gdelt", name="GDELT DOC 2.0 — volume et ton de la couverture (Canada, français)", url="https://api.gdeltproject.org/api/v2/doc/doc", tier=3, kind="signal")
	75	+ s.add(src)
	76	+ src.last_checked_at = utcnow()
	77	+ n, errors = 0, 0
	78	+ for pid, q in GDELT_QUERIES.items():
	79	+ for mode, key in (("timelinevol", "volume"), ("timelinetone", "tone")):
	80	+ try:
	81	+ try:
	82	+ d = _gdelt(q, mode)
	83	+ except httpx.HTTPStatusError as e:
	84	+ if e.response.status_code != 429:
	85	+ raise
	86	+ time.sleep(20) # GDELT : limite par IP, on patiente puis on réessaie une fois
	87	+ d = _gdelt(q, mode)
	88	+ for tl in d.get("timeline", []):
	89	+ for pt in tl.get("data", []):
	90	+ day = parse_fr_date(pt.get("date", "")[:8][:4] + "-" + pt.get("date", "")[4:6] + "-" + pt.get("date", "")[6:8])
	91	+ if not day or pt.get("value") is None:
	92	+ continue
	93	+ _upsert_signal(s, "gdelt", key, pid, day, float(pt["value"]), url="https://api.gdeltproject.org/api/v2/doc/doc", meta={"query": q, "series": tl.get("series")})
	94	+ n += 1
	95	+ except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
	96	+ errors += 1
	97	+ log.warning("gdelt %s/%s : %s", pid, mode, e)
	98	+ time.sleep(6.5) # politique d'usage GDELT : 1 requête / 5 s
	99	+ src.last_ok_at, src.status = utcnow(), "operational" if not errors else "degraded"
	100	+ src.detail = f"{n} observations"
	101	+ return {"observations": n, "errors": errors}
	102	+
	103	+
	104	+def _serper_news(q: str, num: int = 40) -> list[dict]:
	105	+ with httpx.Client(timeout=40) as c:
	106	+ r = c.post("https://google.serper.dev/news", headers={"X-API-KEY": settings.serper_api_key, "Content-Type": "application/json"},
	107	+ json={"q": q, "gl": "ca", "hl": "fr", "tbs": "qdr:d2", "num": num})
	108	+ r.raise_for_status()
	109	+ return r.json().get("news", []) or []
	110	+
	111	+
	112	+def _parse_news_date(txt: str \| None, ref: datetime) -> datetime \| None:
	113	+ if not txt:
	114	+ return None
	115	+ t = txt.lower().strip()
	116	+ m = re.match(r"il y a (\d+)\s*(minute\|heure\|jour\|semaine)", t)
	117	+ if m:
	118	+ n = int(m.group(1))
	119	+ unit = m.group(2)
	120	+ delta = {"minute": timedelta(minutes=n), "heure": timedelta(hours=n), "jour": timedelta(days=n), "semaine": timedelta(weeks=n)}[unit]
	121	+ return ref - delta
	122	+ m = re.match(r"(\d+)\s*(minute\|hour\|day\|week)s? ago", t)
	123	+ if m:
	124	+ n = int(m.group(1))
	125	+ delta = {"minute": timedelta(minutes=n), "hour": timedelta(hours=n), "day": timedelta(days=n), "week": timedelta(weeks=n)}[m.group(2)]
	126	+ return ref - delta
	127	+ d = parse_fr_date(t)
	128	+ return datetime(d.year, d.month, d.day, 12, tzinfo=timezone.utc) if d else None
	129	+
	130	+
	131	+def sync_news(s: Session, classify: bool = True) -> dict:
	132	+ if not settings.serper_api_key:
	133	+ return {"skipped": "SERPER_API_KEY absente"}
	134	+ src = s.get(Source, "serper-news")
	135	+ if not src:
	136	+ src = Source(id="serper-news", name="Google Actualités (via Serper) — titres de presse par parti", url="https://serper.dev", tier=3, kind="signal")
	137	+ s.add(src)
	138	+ src.last_checked_at = utcnow()
	139	+ now = utcnow()
	140	+ known = set(s.scalars(select(MediaItem.url)).all())
	141	+ new_items: list[MediaItem] = []
	142	+ errors = 0
	143	+ for pid, q in NEWS_QUERIES.items():
	144	+ try:
	145	+ for it in _serper_news(q):
	146	+ url = (it.get("link") or "").split("#")[0]
	147	+ if not url or url in known:
	148	+ continue
	149	+ known.add(url)
	150	+ mi = MediaItem(url=url[:600], title=(it.get("title") or "")[:400], domain=urlparse(url).netloc.replace("www.", "")[:120], snippet=(it.get("snippet") or None),
	151	+ published_at=_parse_news_date(it.get("date"), now), query=q[:200], source="serper-news")
	152	+ s.add(mi)
	153	+ new_items.append(mi)
	154	+ except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
	155	+ errors += 1
	156	+ log.warning("serper %s : %s", pid, e)
	157	+ s.commit()
	158	+ classified = 0
	159	+ if classify:
	160	+ classified = classify_pending(s)
	161	+ aggregate_media(s)
	162	+ src.last_ok_at, src.status = utcnow(), "operational" if not errors else "degraded"
	163	+ src.detail = f"{len(new_items)} nouveaux titres, {classified} classés"
	164	+ return {"new": len(new_items), "classified": classified, "errors": errors}
	165	+
	166	+
	167	+def classify_pending(s: Session, batch: int = 60) -> int:
	168	+ """Classement LLM des titres non classés (lot de 60 ; commits explicites autour de l'appel)."""
	169	+ if not llm.available():
	170	+ return 0
	171	+ pending = s.scalars(select(MediaItem).where(MediaItem.classified == False).order_by(MediaItem.id.desc()).limit(batch)).all() # noqa: E712
	172	+ if not pending:
	173	+ return 0
	174	+ lines = [f"[{i}] ({it.domain}) {it.title}" + (f" — {it.snippet[:160]}" if it.snippet else "") for i, it in enumerate(pending)]
	175	+ ids = [it.id for it in pending]
	176	+ s.commit() # libère le verrou pendant l'appel LLM
	177	+ try:
	178	+ data, usage = llm.complete_json(CLASSIFY_SYSTEM, "\n".join(lines), effort="low", max_tokens=6000)
	179	+ except Exception as e: # noqa: BLE001
	180	+ log.warning("classement médias : %s", e)
	181	+ return 0
	182	+ by_i = {int(x.get("i")): x for x in (data.get("items") or []) if isinstance(x, dict) and str(x.get("i", "")).lstrip("-").isdigit()}
	183	+ done = 0
	184	+ for i, mid in enumerate(ids):
	185	+ it = s.get(MediaItem, mid)
	186	+ if not it:
	187	+ continue
	188	+ x = by_i.get(i)
	189	+ it.classified = True
	190	+ if not x:
	191	+ it.topic = "hors_sujet"
	192	+ continue
	193	+ parties = {}
	194	+ for k, v in (x.get("parties") or {}).items():
	195	+ pid = k.strip().lower()
	196	+ if pid in PARTY_IDS:
	197	+ try:
	198	+ tone = float(v)
	199	+ except (TypeError, ValueError):
	200	+ continue
	201	+ if -1 <= tone <= 1:
	202	+ parties[pid] = round(tone, 2)
	203	+ it.parties = parties or None
	204	+ it.topic = str(x.get("topic") or "autre")[:48]
	205	+ it.summary = str(x.get("summary") or "")[:300] or None
	206	+ it.confidence = 0.7 if parties else 0.4
	207	+ done += 1
	208	+ s.commit()
	209	+ return done
	210	+
	211	+
	212	+def aggregate_media(s: Session, days: int = 45) -> int:
	213	+ """Agrège les titres classés en signaux quotidiens : part de voix (nb d'articles) et ton moyen par parti."""
	214	+ since = utcnow() - timedelta(days=days)
	215	+ rows = s.scalars(select(MediaItem).where(MediaItem.classified == True, MediaItem.parties.is_not(None), MediaItem.published_at >= since)).all() # noqa: E712
	216	+ per_day: dict[date, dict[str, list[float]]] = {}
	217	+ for it in rows:
	218	+ d = (it.published_at or it.fetched_at).date()
	219	+ for pid, tone in (it.parties or {}).items():
	220	+ per_day.setdefault(d, {}).setdefault(pid, []).append(tone)
	221	+ n = 0
	222	+ for d, parts in per_day.items():
	223	+ tot = sum(len(v) for v in parts.values()) or 1
	224	+ for pid, tones in parts.items():
	225	+ _upsert_signal(s, "news", "articles", pid, d, float(len(tones)), n=len(tones))
	226	+ _upsert_signal(s, "news", "share_of_voice", pid, d, round(100 * len(tones) / tot, 2), n=len(tones))
	227	+ _upsert_signal(s, "news", "tone", pid, d, round(sum(tones) / len(tones), 3), n=len(tones))
	228	+ n += 3
	229	+ return n
	230	+
	231	+
	232	+def media_summary(s: Session, cutoff: date \| None = None, window: int = 7) -> dict:
	233	+ cutoff = cutoff or date.today()
	234	+ since = cutoff - timedelta(days=window - 1)
	235	+ rows = s.scalars(select(MediaItem).where(MediaItem.classified == True, MediaItem.parties.is_not(None))).all() # noqa: E712
	236	+ items = [it for it in rows if since <= (it.published_at or it.fetched_at).date() <= cutoff]
	237	+ tone: dict[str, list[float]] = {p: [] for p in PARTY_IDS}
	238	+ for it in items:
	239	+ for pid, t in (it.parties or {}).items():
	240	+ if pid in tone:
	241	+ tone[pid].append(t)
	242	+ tot = sum(len(v) for v in tone.values()) or 1
	243	+ # GDELT : volume moyen 7 j et 28 j, ton moyen 7 j
	244	+ g = s.execute(select(Signal.party_id, Signal.key, Signal.date, Signal.value).where(Signal.source == "gdelt", Signal.date <= cutoff, Signal.date >= cutoff - timedelta(days=28))).all()
	245	+ gd: dict[str, dict[str, list[tuple[date, float]]]] = {}
	246	+ for pid, key, d, v in g:
	247	+ gd.setdefault(pid, {}).setdefault(key, []).append((d, v))
	248	+ gdelt = {}
	249	+ for pid in PARTY_IDS:
	250	+ vol = gd.get(pid, {}).get("volume", [])
	251	+ tn = gd.get(pid, {}).get("tone", [])
	252	+ v7 = [v for d, v in vol if (cutoff - d).days < 7]
	253	+ v28 = [v for d, v in vol]
	254	+ t7 = [v for d, v in tn if (cutoff - d).days < 7]
	255	+ gdelt[pid] = {"volume7": round(sum(v7) / len(v7), 4) if v7 else None, "volume28": round(sum(v28) / len(v28), 4) if v28 else None, "tone7": round(sum(t7) / len(t7), 2) if t7 else None}
	256	+ # séries quotidiennes (part de voix + ton) depuis les signaux agrégés
	257	+ ser = s.execute(select(Signal.party_id, Signal.key, Signal.date, Signal.value).where(Signal.source == "news", Signal.date <= cutoff, Signal.date >= cutoff - timedelta(days=45)).order_by(Signal.date)).all()
	258	+ series: dict[str, dict[str, dict[str, float]]] = {}
	259	+ for pid, key, d, v in ser:
	260	+ series.setdefault(d.isoformat(), {}).setdefault(key, {})[pid] = v
	261	+ latest = sorted(items, key=lambda z: (z.published_at or z.fetched_at), reverse=True)[:60]
	262	+ return {"enabled": bool(items) or any(v["volume28"] is not None for v in gdelt.values()), "window": window, "asOf": cutoff.isoformat(), "articles": len(items),
	263	+ "shareOfVoice": {p: round(100 * len(tone[p]) / tot, 1) for p in PARTY_IDS}, "tone": {p: (round(sum(tone[p]) / len(tone[p]), 2) if tone[p] else None) for p in PARTY_IDS},
	264	+ "counts": {p: len(tone[p]) for p in PARTY_IDS}, "gdelt": gdelt,
	265	+ "series": [{"date": d, **{k: v for k, v in kv.items()}} for d, kv in sorted(series.items())],
	266	+ "latest": [{"id": it.id, "title": it.title, "domain": it.domain, "url": it.url, "publishedAt": (it.published_at or it.fetched_at).isoformat(), "parties": it.parties, "topic": it.topic, "summary": it.summary} for it in latest],
	267	+ "topics": dict(sorted(((t, n) for t, n in s.execute(select(MediaItem.topic, func.count()).where(MediaItem.classified == True, MediaItem.topic.is_not(None), MediaItem.topic != "hors_sujet").group_by(MediaItem.topic)).all()), key=lambda z: -z[1]))} # noqa: E712

modified engine/qc26/util.py +18 −0

		`@@ -43,6 +43,24 @@ def sha256_bytes(b: bytes) -> str:`
43	43	return hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest()
44	44
45	45
	46	+def resolve_archive_path(p: str \| Path \| None) -> Path \| None:
	47	+ """Les chemins d'archive sont stockés absolus ; si la base a été déplacée (laptop → nœud),
	48	+ on retrouve le fichier par son nom dans l'archive locale (identité = SHA-256 dans le nom)."""
	49	+ if not p:
	50	+ return None
	51	+ path = Path(p)
	52	+ if path.exists():
	53	+ return path
	54	+ for sub in ("polls", "documents", "live", "partielles"):
	55	+ cand = settings.archive_dir / sub / path.name
	56	+ if cand.exists():
	57	+ return cand
	58	+ if path.parent.name in ("polls", "documents", "live", "partielles"):
	59	+ cand = settings.archive_dir / path.parent.name / path.name
	60	+ return cand if cand.exists() else path
	61	+ return path
	62	+
	63	+
46	64	def slugify(s: str) -> str:
47	65	s = unicodedata.normalize("NFKD", s)
48	66	s = "".join(c for c in s if not unicodedata.combining(c))

modified web/src/app/boussole/page.tsx +1 −1

		`@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ export default async function Page() {`
13	13	<div className="space-y-6">
14	14	<div>
15	15	<div className="eyebrow">Boussole électorale · {data.questions.length} énoncés · 6 axes</div>
16		− <h1 className="display text-[36px] md:text-[48px] mt-2">Boussole QC26</h1>
	16	+ <h1 className="display text-[40px] md:text-[56px] mt-3">Boussole QC26</h1>
17	17	<p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 max-w-2xl text-[15px] leading-relaxed">Répondez aux énoncés qui vous parlent, pondérez leur importance, puis comparez. Chaque position de parti provient <b>exclusivement</b> de documents officiels ingérés par QC26 (plateforme, programme, engagements) avec page et citation ; quand un document ne permet pas de conclure, la question ne compte pas pour ce parti. Vos réponses restent dans votre navigateur.</p>
18	18	</div>
19	19	<Compass data={data} />

modified web/src/app/carte/page.tsx +1 −1

		`@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ export default async function Page() {`
13	13	<div className="space-y-6">
14	14	<div>
15	15	<div className="eyebrow">Carte · 127 circonscriptions · limites officielles 2026</div>
16		− <h1 className="display text-[36px] md:text-[48px] mt-2">Carte électorale</h1>
	16	+ <h1 className="display text-[40px] md:text-[56px] mt-3">Carte électorale</h1>
17	17	<p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 max-w-2xl text-[15px] leading-relaxed">Géométrie officielle d'Élections Québec (simplifiée pour le web). Avant le scrutin, aucune circonscription n'est « gagnée » : l'opacité traduit la probabilité. Molette ou pincement pour zoomer ; cliquez pour ouvrir la fiche.</p>
18	18	</div>
19	19	<Card pad={false} className="p-3 md:p-4"><MapSection height={680} live={live} /></Card>

modified web/src/app/circonscription/[slug]/page.tsx +6 −6

		`@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ import { Badge, Card, KV, LiveBadge, ProbabilityBar, ProjectionBadge, SectionHea`
7	7	import { RidingMap } from "@/components/riding-map";
8	8	import { RidingLive } from "@/components/riding-live";
9	9	import { dateFr, dateTimeFr, delta, int, pct, prob, ratingLabel } from "@/lib/format";
10		−import { partyColor, partyLabel, partyName } from "@/lib/parties";
	10	+import { partyVar, partyLabel, partyName } from "@/lib/parties";
11	11
12	12	export const revalidate = 60;
13	13
		`@@ -51,14 +51,14 @@ export default async function Page({ params }: { params: Promise<{ slug: string`
51	51	<div className="mt-6 card card-lg p-5 md:p-6">
52	52	<div className="flex items-center justify-between flex-wrap gap-2"><div className="eyebrow">Projection QC26 · run #{f.runId} · {dateTimeFr(f.completedAt)}</div><ProjectionBadge /></div>
53	53	<div className="mt-3 flex items-end gap-6 flex-wrap">
54		− <div><div className="flex items-center gap-2"><PartyLogo id={f.favorite} height={22} /><span className="font-semibold">{partyName(f.favorite)} favori</span></div><div className="num display text-[64px]" style={{ color: partyColor(f.favorite) }}>{prob(f.p)}</div><div className="text-[13px] text-ink-2 -mt-1">probabilité de victoire · <b>{ratingLabel(f.rating)}</b></div></div>
	54	+ <div><div className="flex items-center gap-2"><PartyLogo id={f.favorite} height={22} /><span className="font-semibold">{partyName(f.favorite)} favori</span></div><div className="num display text-[64px]" style={{ color: partyVar(f.favorite) }}>{prob(f.p)}</div><div className="text-[13px] text-ink-2 -mt-1">probabilité de victoire · <b>{ratingLabel(f.rating)}</b></div></div>
55	55	<div className="ml-auto grid grid-cols-2 gap-x-6 gap-y-3 text-[13px]"><div><div className="eyebrow">Marge projetée</div><div className="num text-[22px] font-bold">{f.margin.toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")} pt</div><div className="text-ink-3">vs {partyLabel(f.runnerUp)}</div></div><div><div className="eyebrow">Swing vs 2022</div><div className="num text-[22px] font-bold">{delta(f.swing, 1, " pt")}</div><div className="text-ink-3">{partyLabel(f.favorite)}</div></div></div>
56	56	</div>
57	57	<div className="mt-5 space-y-2">
58	58	{f.parties.filter((p) => p.party !== "aut" \|\| p.voteMean > 2).map((p) => (
59	59	<div key={p.party} className="grid grid-cols-[46px_1fr_92px_60px] items-center gap-3 text-[13px]">
60		− <span className="font-semibold num" style={{ color: partyColor(p.party) }}>{partyLabel(p.party)}</span>
61		− <div className="relative h-[14px] bg-surface-3 rounded-[4px] overflow-hidden"><div className="absolute inset-y-0 rounded-[4px]" style={{ left: `${(p.vote80[0] / 70) * 100}%`, width: `${((p.vote80[1] - p.vote80[0]) / 70) * 100}%`, background: partyColor(p.party), opacity: 0.3 }} /><div className="absolute inset-y-0 w-[2px] bg-ink" style={{ left: `${(p.voteMean / 70) * 100}%` }} /></div>
	60	+ <span className="font-semibold num" style={{ color: partyVar(p.party) }}>{partyLabel(p.party)}</span>
	61	+ <div className="relative h-[14px] bg-surface-3 rounded-[4px] overflow-hidden"><div className="absolute inset-y-0 rounded-[4px]" style={{ left: `${(p.vote80[0] / 70) * 100}%`, width: `${((p.vote80[1] - p.vote80[0]) / 70) * 100}%`, background: partyVar(p.party), opacity: 0.3 }} /><div className="absolute inset-y-0 w-[2px] bg-ink" style={{ left: `${(p.voteMean / 70) * 100}%` }} /></div>
62	62	<span className="num text-ink-2">{p.voteMean.toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")} % <span className="text-ink-3 text-[11px]">({p.vote80[0].toFixed(0)}–{p.vote80[1].toFixed(0)})</span></span>
63	63	<span className="num font-semibold text-right">{prob(p.pWin)}</span>
64	64	</div>
		`@@ -99,7 +99,7 @@ export default async function Page({ params }: { params: Promise<{ slug: string`
99	99	<div>
100	100	<SectionHeader eyebrow="2022 sur la carte 2026" title="Résultat précédent transposé" description="Résultats officiels 2022 par section de vote, réaffectés aux limites 2026 (calcul QC26)." action={<SourceBadge source={{ name: "Élections Québec — résultats 2022 par section de vote + carte 2026", url: "https://www.dgeq.org/donnees.html", detail: d.baseline2022[0]?.source, tier: "Officiel (DGEQ) · transposition QC26" }} />} />
101	101	<Card>
102		− <div className="space-y-2">{d.baseline2022.filter((b) => b.party !== "aut" \|\| b.share > 1).map((b) => (<div key={b.party} className="grid grid-cols-[46px_1fr_64px] items-center gap-3 text-[13px]"><span className="font-semibold num" style={{ color: partyColor(b.party) }}>{partyLabel(b.party)}</span><div className="h-[12px] bg-surface-3 rounded-[4px] overflow-hidden"><div className="h-full" style={{ width: `${(b.share / 70) * 100}%`, background: partyColor(b.party) }} /></div><span className="num text-right">{pct(b.share)}</span></div>))}</div>
	102	+ <div className="space-y-2">{d.baseline2022.filter((b) => b.party !== "aut" \|\| b.share > 1).map((b) => (<div key={b.party} className="grid grid-cols-[46px_1fr_64px] items-center gap-3 text-[13px]"><span className="font-semibold num" style={{ color: partyVar(b.party) }}>{partyLabel(b.party)}</span><div className="h-[12px] bg-surface-3 rounded-[4px] overflow-hidden"><div className="h-full" style={{ width: `${(b.share / 70) * 100}%`, background: partyVar(b.party) }} /></div><span className="num text-right">{pct(b.share)}</span></div>))}</div>
103	103	<div className="text-[12px] text-ink-3 mt-3">{d.baseline2022[0]?.coverage !== null && d.baseline2022[0]?.coverage !== undefined ? `${pct(d.baseline2022[0].coverage * 100, 0)} des votes proviennent de la circonscription 2022 principale.` : ""} Hypothèse : les votes par anticipation se répartissent comme ceux du jour du vote.</div>
104	104	</Card>
105	105	</div>
		`@@ -148,7 +148,7 @@ export default async function Page({ params }: { params: Promise<{ slug: string`
148	148	<Card>
149	149	<div className="eyebrow mb-2">Fiche</div>
150	150	<KV items={[["Code DGEQ", String(d.code)], ["Région (classification QC26)", d.regionName ?? "—"], ["Électeurs inscrits (décret 2026)", int(d.electors)], ["Superficie approx.", d.areaKm2 ? `${int(d.areaKm2)} km²` : "—"], ["Sortant·e", d.incumbent.name ? `${d.incumbent.name} · ${partyName(d.incumbent.party)}` : "—"], ["Volatilité (1 − p favori)", f ? f.volatility.toFixed(2) : "—"], ["Dernière mise à jour", f ? dateTimeFr(f.completedAt) : "—"]]} />
151		− <div className="mt-3 flex gap-2 flex-wrap"><PartyBadge id={f?.favorite} /><ProbabilityBar p={f?.p ?? 0} color={partyColor(f?.favorite)} className="flex-1 min-w-[200px]" /></div>
	151	+ <div className="mt-3 flex gap-2 flex-wrap"><PartyBadge id={f?.favorite} /><ProbabilityBar p={f?.p ?? 0} color={partyVar(f?.favorite)} className="flex-1 min-w-[200px]" /></div>
152	152	</Card>
153	153	</div>
154	154	);

modified web/src/app/circonscriptions/page.tsx +1 −1

		`@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ export default async function Page({ searchParams }: { searchParams: Promise<{ t`
14	14	<div className="space-y-6">
15	15	<div>
16	16	<div className="eyebrow">Circonscriptions · {data.ridings.length}</div>
17		− <h1 className="display text-[36px] md:text-[48px] mt-2">127 circonscriptions</h1>
	17	+ <h1 className="display text-[40px] md:text-[56px] mt-3">127 circonscriptions</h1>
18	18	<p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 max-w-2xl text-[15px] leading-relaxed">Les pourcentages sont des <b>probabilités de victoire</b> issues des simulations, pas des intentions de vote. Nouvelle carte 2026 : Bellefeuille et Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie s'ajoutent, 39 circonscriptions sont modifiées.</p>
19	19	</div>
20	20	<RidingsGrid ridings={data.ridings} regions={data.regions} initialSort={sp.tri === "serre" ? "serre" : "nom"} />

modified web/src/app/documents/[id]/page.tsx +3 −3

		`@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ import { apiSafe } from "@/lib/api";`
5	5	import { PartyBadge } from "@/components/party";
6	6	import { Badge, Card, KV, SectionHeader, SourceBadge } from "@/components/ui";
7	7	import { dateTimeFr } from "@/lib/format";
8		−import { partyColor, partyName } from "@/lib/parties";
	8	+import { partyVar, partyName } from "@/lib/parties";
9	9
10	10	export const revalidate = 300;
11	11
		`@@ -42,7 +42,7 @@ export default async function Page({ params }: { params: Promise<{ id: string }>`
42	42	<Card key={p.id} className="scroll-mt-24" >
43	43	<div id={`p${p.id}`} className="grid md:grid-cols-[1fr_auto] gap-3">
44	44	<div><div className="font-medium text-[14.5px]">{p.proposal}</div>{p.position && <div className="text-[13px] text-ink-2 mt-1">{p.position}</div>}{p.magnitude && <div className="num text-[13px] mt-1">{p.magnitude}</div>}
45		− <blockquote className="mt-3 italic text-ink-2 text-[13px] border-l-2 pl-3 leading-relaxed" style={{ borderColor: partyColor(d.party) }}>« {p.quote} »</blockquote></div>
	45	+ <blockquote className="mt-3 italic text-ink-2 text-[13px] border-l-2 pl-3 leading-relaxed" style={{ borderColor: partyVar(d.party) }}>« {p.quote} »</blockquote></div>
46	46	<div className="text-[12px] text-ink-3 num md:text-right shrink-0">{p.page ? <div>Page {p.page}</div> : null}<div>Confiance {Math.round(p.confidence * 100)} %</div>{p.direction && p.direction !== "neutre" && <div className="mt-1"><Badge>{p.direction.replace(/_/g, " ")}</Badge></div>}{p.subtopic && <div className="mt-1">{p.subtopic}</div>}</div>
47	47	</div>
48	48	</Card>))}</div>
		`@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ export default async function Page({ params }: { params: Promise<{ id: string }>`
51	51	</div>
52	52	<div className="space-y-4">
53	53	<Card><div className="eyebrow mb-2">Fiche</div><KV items={[["Parti", partyName(d.party)], ["Type", d.type], ["Découvert", dateTimeFr(d.discoveredAt)], ["Vérifié", dateTimeFr(d.lastCheckedAt)], ["Versions", String(d.versions.length)], ["Propositions", String(d.proposals.filter((p) => p.status === "accepted").length)], ["En révision", String(d.proposals.filter((p) => p.status === "review").length)]]} /></Card>
54		− <Card><div className="eyebrow mb-2">Versions</div><ul className="space-y-3 text-[12.5px]">{d.versions.slice().reverse().map((v) => (<li key={v.id} className="border-l-2 pl-3" style={{ borderColor: v.current ? partyColor(d.party) : "var(--border)" }}><div className="flex justify-between"><b>{dateTimeFr(v.fetchedAt)}</b>{v.current && <Badge tone="accent">courante</Badge>}</div><div className="mono text-[11px] text-ink-3 break-all mt-0.5">{v.sha256}</div><div className="text-ink-2 mt-0.5 num">{(v.bytes / 1024).toFixed(0)} Ko{v.pages ? ` · ${v.pages} p.` : ""} · <a href={v.archiveUrl} className="link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">archive QC26</a></div>{v.diff && <div className="mt-1 text-ink-2">Δ vs version précédente : similarité {Math.round(v.diff.ratio * 100)} %, +{v.diff.added_count} / −{v.diff.removed_count} lignes</div>}</li>))}</ul></Card>
	54	+ <Card><div className="eyebrow mb-2">Versions</div><ul className="space-y-3 text-[12.5px]">{d.versions.slice().reverse().map((v) => (<li key={v.id} className="border-l-2 pl-3" style={{ borderColor: v.current ? partyVar(d.party) : "var(--border)" }}><div className="flex justify-between"><b>{dateTimeFr(v.fetchedAt)}</b>{v.current && <Badge tone="accent">courante</Badge>}</div><div className="mono text-[11px] text-ink-3 break-all mt-0.5">{v.sha256}</div><div className="text-ink-2 mt-0.5 num">{(v.bytes / 1024).toFixed(0)} Ko{v.pages ? ` · ${v.pages} p.` : ""} · <a href={v.archiveUrl} className="link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">archive QC26</a></div>{v.diff && <div className="mt-1 text-ink-2">Δ vs version précédente : similarité {Math.round(v.diff.ratio * 100)} %, +{v.diff.added_count} / −{v.diff.removed_count} lignes</div>}</li>))}</ul></Card>
55	55	{cur?.diff && (cur.diff.added.length > 0 \|\| cur.diff.removed.length > 0) && (
56	56	<Card><div className="eyebrow mb-2">Document diff</div><div className="text-[12px] space-y-1 max-h-[360px] overflow-auto">{cur.diff.added.slice(0, 30).map((l, i) => <div key={`a${i}`} className="bg-[rgba(21,128,61,.08)] text-ok rounded px-1.5 py-0.5">+ {l}</div>)}{cur.diff.removed.slice(0, 30).map((l, i) => <div key={`r${i}`} className="bg-[rgba(220,38,38,.07)] text-live rounded px-1.5 py-0.5 line-through">− {l}</div>)}</div></Card>
57	57	)}

modified web/src/app/documents/page.tsx +1 −1

		`@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ export default async function Page({ searchParams }: { searchParams: Promise<{ p`
21	21	const types = ["plateforme", "cadre_financier", "communique", "document", "page"];
22	22	return (
23	23	<div className="space-y-6">
24		− <div><div className="eyebrow">Document Library · sources officielles uniquement</div><h1 className="display text-[36px] md:text-[48px] mt-2">Bibliothèque documentaire</h1><p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 max-w-2xl text-[15px] leading-relaxed">Chaque document est téléchargé depuis le site officiel du parti, haché (SHA-256), versionné et analysé. Quand un parti modifie un document, QC26 conserve les deux versions et affiche les changements.</p></div>
	24	+ <div><div className="eyebrow eyebrow-accent">Document Library · sources officielles uniquement</div><h1 className="display text-[40px] md:text-[56px] mt-3">Bibliothèque documentaire</h1><p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 max-w-2xl text-[15px] leading-relaxed">Chaque document est téléchargé depuis le site officiel du parti, haché (SHA-256), versionné et analysé. Quand un parti modifie un document, QC26 conserve les deux versions et affiche les changements.</p></div>
25	25	<div className="flex flex-wrap gap-1.5 items-center text-[13px]">
26	26	<Pill href="/documents" active={!sp.party}>Tous</Pill>{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <Pill key={id} href={`/documents?party=${id}${sp.type ? `&type=${sp.type}` : ""}`} active={sp.party === id}>{partyLabel(id)}</Pill>)}
27	27	<span className="mx-2 text-ink-3">·</span>{types.map((t) => <Pill key={t} href={`/documents?type=${t}${sp.party ? `&party=${sp.party}` : ""}`} active={sp.type === t}>{t.replace("_", " ")}</Pill>)}

modified web/src/app/enjeux/[topic]/page.tsx +3 −3

		`@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ import { notFound } from "next/navigation";`
4	4	import { apiSafe, type Meta } from "@/lib/api";
5	5	import { PartyLogo } from "@/components/party";
6	6	import { Badge, Card, Empty } from "@/components/ui";
7		−import { PARTY_IDS, partyColor, partyName } from "@/lib/parties";
	7	+import { PARTY_IDS, partyVar, partyName } from "@/lib/parties";
8	8
9	9	export const revalidate = 300;
10	10
		`@@ -30,13 +30,13 @@ export default async function Page({ params }: { params: Promise<{ topic: string`
30	30	<div className="grid lg:grid-cols-5 gap-3">
31	31	{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => (
32	32	<div key={id} className="space-y-2">
33		− <div className="flex items-center gap-2 pb-2 border-b-2" style={{ borderColor: partyColor(id) }}><PartyLogo id={id} height={16} /><span className="font-semibold text-[13px]">{partyName(id)}</span><span className="num text-[12px] text-ink-3 ml-auto">{by[id]?.length ?? 0}</span></div>
	33	+ <div className="flex items-center gap-2 pb-2 border-b-2" style={{ borderColor: partyVar(id) }}><PartyLogo id={id} height={16} /><span className="font-semibold text-[13px]">{partyName(id)}</span><span className="num text-[12px] text-ink-3 ml-auto">{by[id]?.length ?? 0}</span></div>
34	34	{(by[id] ?? []).length === 0 && <div className="text-[12.5px] text-ink-3 p-2">Aucune proposition documentée.</div>}
35	35	{(by[id] ?? []).map((p) => (
36	36	<Card key={p.id} className="!p-3 text-[12.5px] leading-snug" >
37	37	<div className="font-medium">{p.proposal}</div>
38	38	{p.magnitude && <div className="num text-ink-2 mt-1">{p.magnitude}</div>}
39		− <blockquote className="mt-2 italic text-ink-2 border-l-2 pl-2" style={{ borderColor: partyColor(id) }}>« {p.quote.length > 240 ? p.quote.slice(0, 240) + "…" : p.quote} »</blockquote>
	39	+ <blockquote className="mt-2 italic text-ink-2 border-l-2 pl-2" style={{ borderColor: partyVar(id) }}>« {p.quote.length > 240 ? p.quote.slice(0, 240) + "…" : p.quote} »</blockquote>
40	40	<div className="mt-2 flex items-center justify-between gap-2 text-[11.5px] text-ink-3"><Link href={`/documents/${p.document.id}#p${p.id}`} className="link truncate">{p.document.title ?? "Document"}</Link><span className="num shrink-0">{p.page ? `p. ${p.page} · ` : ""}{Math.round(p.confidence * 100)} %</span></div>
41	41	{p.direction && p.direction !== "neutre" && <div className="mt-1.5"><Badge>{p.direction.replace(/_/g, " ")}</Badge></div>}
42	42	</Card>

modified web/src/app/enjeux/page.tsx +4 −4

		`@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ import Link from "next/link";`
3	3	import { apiSafe } from "@/lib/api";
4	4	import { AskBox } from "@/components/ask-box";
5	5	import { Card, Empty } from "@/components/ui";
6		−import { PARTY_IDS, partyColor, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
	6	+import { PARTY_IDS, partyVar, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
7	7
8	8	export const metadata: Metadata = { title: "Enjeux — ce que proposent les partis", description: "Positions et propositions des partis par enjeu (santé, logement, immigration, langue, environnement…), tirées de leurs documents officiels." };
9	9	export const revalidate = 300;
		`@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ export default async function Page() {`
15	15	if (!m) return <Empty title="Enjeux indisponibles" />;
16	16	return (
17	17	<div className="space-y-8">
18		− <div><div className="eyebrow">Issues tracker · {m.topics.length} enjeux documentés</div><h1 className="display text-[36px] md:text-[48px] mt-2">Enjeux</h1><p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 max-w-2xl text-[15px] leading-relaxed">Les principaux enjeux détectés dans les documents officiels des partis. Le nombre indique les propositions extraites (avec page et citation) par parti.</p></div>
	18	+ <div><div className="eyebrow eyebrow-accent">Issues tracker · {m.topics.length} enjeux documentés</div><h1 className="display text-[40px] md:text-[56px] mt-3">Enjeux</h1><p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 max-w-2xl text-[15px] leading-relaxed">Les principaux enjeux détectés dans les documents officiels des partis. Le nombre indique les propositions extraites (avec page et citation) par parti.</p></div>
19	19	<AskBox />
20	20	{m.topics.length === 0 ? <Empty title="Extraction en cours" /> : (
21	21	<div className="grid sm:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3 gap-3">
		`@@ -24,8 +24,8 @@ export default async function Page() {`
24	24	return (
25	25	<Link key={t.id} href={`/enjeux/${t.id}`} className="card p-4 block hover:shadow-md">
26	26	<div className="flex items-baseline justify-between"><div className="font-semibold text-[15px]">{t.label}</div><div className="num text-[12px] text-ink-3">{total} propositions</div></div>
27		− <div className="flex h-[8px] rounded-full overflow-hidden mt-3 bg-surface-3">{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <div key={id} style={{ width: `${((t.counts[id] ?? 0) / Math.max(total, 1)) * 100}%`, background: partyColor(id) }} />)}</div>
28		− <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-x-3 mt-2 text-[12px] num">{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <span key={id}><b style={{ color: partyColor(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</b> {t.counts[id] ?? 0}</span>)}</div>
	27	+ <div className="flex h-[8px] rounded-full overflow-hidden mt-3 bg-surface-3">{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <div key={id} style={{ width: `${((t.counts[id] ?? 0) / Math.max(total, 1)) * 100}%`, background: partyVar(id) }} />)}</div>
	28	+ <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-x-3 mt-2 text-[12px] num">{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <span key={id}><b style={{ color: partyVar(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</b> {t.counts[id] ?? 0}</span>)}</div>
29	29	</Link>
30	30	);
31	31	})}

modified web/src/app/globals.css +166 −46

		`@@ -1,30 +1,96 @@`
1	1	@import "tailwindcss";
2	2
3		−/* ------------------------------------------------------------------ tokens */
	3	+@custom-variant dark (&:where([data-theme="dark"], [data-theme="dark"] *));
	4	+
	5	+/* ==================================================================== tokens
	6	+ QC26 « Editorial Data Intelligence » — papier chaud, encre, un seul accent (sarcelle,
	7	+ jamais une couleur de parti). Les couleurs de partis vivent ici en variables, adaptées au
	8	+ thème sombre (le marine du PQ et le violet du PCQ sont éclaircis pour rester lisibles). */
4	9	:root {
5		− --background: #f7f8fa;
	10	+ --background: #f6f5f1;
6	11	--surface: #ffffff;
7		− --surface-2: #f1f3f5;
8		− --surface-3: #e9ecf0;
9		− --border: rgba(20, 25, 35, 0.09);
10		− --border-strong: rgba(20, 25, 35, 0.18);
11		− --text: #111318;
12		− --text-2: #656b76;
13		− --text-3: #8a909b;
14		− --qc26: #111827;
15		− --qc26-accent: #2563eb;
16		− --qc26-accent-soft: rgba(37, 99, 235, 0.1);
17		− --live: #dc2626;
18		− --ok: #15803d;
	12	+ --surface-2: #f0eee8;
	13	+ --surface-3: #e6e3db;
	14	+ --surface-4: #d9d5cb;
	15	+ --border: rgba(20, 22, 28, 0.1);
	16	+ --border-strong: rgba(20, 22, 28, 0.22);
	17	+ --text: #15171c;
	18	+ --text-2: #5c6270;
	19	+ --text-3: #8b909b;
	20	+ --text-inverse: #f6f5f1;
	21	+ --qc26: #15171c;
	22	+ --qc26-accent: #0f766e;
	23	+ --qc26-accent-strong: #0b5d57;
	24	+ --qc26-accent-soft: rgba(15, 118, 110, 0.1);
	25	+ --qc26-accent-ink: #ffffff;
	26	+ --live: #d12f2f;
	27	+ --live-soft: rgba(209, 47, 47, 0.1);
	28	+ --ok: #1f7a3a;
	29	+ --ok-soft: rgba(31, 122, 58, 0.1);
19	30	--warn: #b45309;
20		− --radius: 10px;
21		− --radius-lg: 16px;
22		− --shadow-sm: 0 1px 2px rgba(17, 19, 24, 0.04), 0 1px 1px rgba(17, 19, 24, 0.03);
23		− --shadow-md: 0 6px 24px -12px rgba(17, 19, 24, 0.18), 0 2px 6px -2px rgba(17, 19, 24, 0.06);
	31	+ --warn-soft: rgba(180, 83, 9, 0.12);
	32	+ --grid: rgba(20, 22, 28, 0.07);
	33	+ --p-caq: #20a8e0;
	34	+ --p-plq: #ed1b2d;
	35	+ --p-pq: #1e295c;
	36	+ --p-qs: #ff5505;
	37	+ --p-pcq: #6e4c9f;
	38	+ --p-aut: #9aa0a6;
	39	+ --p-none: #c9c5bb;
	40	+ --radius: 12px;
	41	+ --radius-lg: 18px;
	42	+ --radius-sm: 8px;
	43	+ --shadow-sm: 0 1px 2px rgba(21, 23, 28, 0.05), 0 1px 1px rgba(21, 23, 28, 0.03);
	44	+ --shadow-md: 0 10px 30px -18px rgba(21, 23, 28, 0.35), 0 2px 8px -4px rgba(21, 23, 28, 0.08);
	45	+ --shadow-lg: 0 30px 60px -30px rgba(21, 23, 28, 0.4);
24	46	--font-sans: var(--font-inter), ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, sans-serif;
25		− --font-mono: ui-monospace, "SF Mono", SFMono-Regular, Menlo, Consolas, monospace;
26		− --header-h: 56px;
27		− --bottom-nav-h: 60px;
	47	+ --font-display: var(--font-fraunces), "Iowan Old Style", "Palatino Linotype", Georgia, serif;
	48	+ --font-mono: var(--font-jetbrains), ui-monospace, "SF Mono", Menlo, Consolas, monospace;
	49	+ --header-h: 60px;
	50	+ --bottom-nav-h: 62px;
	51	+ --header-bg: rgba(246, 245, 241, 0.82);
	52	+ --nav-bg: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.9);
	53	+ --hero-glow: radial-gradient(1200px 500px at 15% -10%, rgba(15, 118, 110, 0.14), transparent 60%), radial-gradient(900px 400px at 95% 0%, rgba(21, 23, 28, 0.06), transparent 60%);
	54	+ color-scheme: light;
	55	+}
	56	+:root[data-theme="dark"] {
	57	+ --background: #0e1013;
	58	+ --surface: #15181d;
	59	+ --surface-2: #1c2027;
	60	+ --surface-3: #252a33;
	61	+ --surface-4: #313743;
	62	+ --border: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.09);
	63	+ --border-strong: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.2);
	64	+ --text: #edeff3;
	65	+ --text-2: #a5abb8;
	66	+ --text-3: #737a88;
	67	+ --text-inverse: #0e1013;
	68	+ --qc26: #edeff3;
	69	+ --qc26-accent: #2fb8aa;
	70	+ --qc26-accent-strong: #5fd3c7;
	71	+ --qc26-accent-soft: rgba(47, 184, 170, 0.14);
	72	+ --qc26-accent-ink: #0e1013;
	73	+ --live: #f0554f;
	74	+ --live-soft: rgba(240, 85, 79, 0.14);
	75	+ --ok: #3fbf6b;
	76	+ --ok-soft: rgba(63, 191, 107, 0.14);
	77	+ --warn: #e0a23a;
	78	+ --warn-soft: rgba(224, 162, 58, 0.14);
	79	+ --grid: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.07);
	80	+ --p-caq: #3db8ea;
	81	+ --p-plq: #f24c5a;
	82	+ --p-pq: #7385dc;
	83	+ --p-qs: #ff7a3d;
	84	+ --p-pcq: #ab8ee3;
	85	+ --p-aut: #8b919c;
	86	+ --p-none: #3a404b;
	87	+ --shadow-sm: 0 1px 2px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.4);
	88	+ --shadow-md: 0 12px 30px -18px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.8), 0 2px 8px -4px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);
	89	+ --shadow-lg: 0 30px 60px -30px rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);
	90	+ --header-bg: rgba(14, 16, 19, 0.78);
	91	+ --nav-bg: rgba(21, 24, 29, 0.92);
	92	+ --hero-glow: radial-gradient(1200px 500px at 15% -10%, rgba(47, 184, 170, 0.16), transparent 60%), radial-gradient(900px 400px at 95% 0%, rgba(115, 133, 220, 0.1), transparent 60%);
	93	+ color-scheme: dark;
28	94	}
29	95
30	96	@theme inline {
		`@@ -32,26 +98,33 @@`
32	98	--color-surface: var(--surface);
33	99	--color-surface-2: var(--surface-2);
34	100	--color-surface-3: var(--surface-3);
	101	+ --color-surface-4: var(--surface-4);
35	102	--color-border: var(--border);
36	103	--color-border-strong: var(--border-strong);
37	104	--color-ink: var(--text);
38	105	--color-ink-2: var(--text-2);
39	106	--color-ink-3: var(--text-3);
	107	+ --color-ink-inverse: var(--text-inverse);
40	108	--color-brand: var(--qc26);
41	109	--color-accent: var(--qc26-accent);
	110	+ --color-accent-strong: var(--qc26-accent-strong);
42	111	--color-accent-soft: var(--qc26-accent-soft);
	112	+ --color-accent-ink: var(--qc26-accent-ink);
43	113	--color-live: var(--live);
	114	+ --color-live-soft: var(--live-soft);
44	115	--color-ok: var(--ok);
	116	+ --color-ok-soft: var(--ok-soft);
45	117	--color-warn: var(--warn);
	118	+ --color-warn-soft: var(--warn-soft);
46	119	--font-sans: var(--font-sans);
	120	+ --font-display: var(--font-display);
47	121	--font-mono: var(--font-mono);
48	122	--radius-card: var(--radius);
49	123	--radius-card-lg: var(--radius-lg);
50	124	}
51	125
52		−/* ------------------------------------------------------------------- base */
	126	+/* ====================================================================== base */
53	127	html {
54		− color-scheme: light;
55	128	-webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;
56	129	scroll-behavior: smooth;
57	130	}
		`@@ -67,51 +140,98 @@ body {`
67	140	-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;
68	141	text-rendering: optimizeLegibility;
69	142	min-height: 100dvh;
	143	+ transition: background-color 0.25s ease, color 0.25s ease;
	144	+}
	145	+@layer base {
	146	+ a { color: inherit; text-decoration: none; }
	147	+ a:hover { text-decoration: none; }
	148	+ ::selection { background: var(--qc26-accent-soft); }
	149	+ :focus-visible { outline: 2px solid var(--qc26-accent); outline-offset: 2px; border-radius: 4px; }
70	150	}
	151	+
	152	+/* ================================================================ typography */
	153	+.display { font-family: var(--font-display); font-weight: 600; letter-spacing: -0.02em; line-height: 0.98; font-variation-settings: "opsz" 144, "SOFT" 30; }
	154	+.display-tight { letter-spacing: -0.035em; }
	155	+.figure { font-family: var(--font-display); font-weight: 500; letter-spacing: -0.03em; line-height: 0.9; font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums lining-nums; font-variation-settings: "opsz" 144, "SOFT" 0; }
	156	+.serif { font-family: var(--font-display); }
71	157	.num { font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums lining-nums; letter-spacing: -0.01em; }
72		−.display { letter-spacing: -0.035em; line-height: 0.95; font-weight: 700; }
73		−.eyebrow { font-size: 11px; letter-spacing: 0.12em; text-transform: uppercase; font-weight: 600; color: var(--text-2); }
74		−.mono { font-family: var(--font-mono); font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums; }
	158	+.mono { font-family: var(--font-mono); font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums; letter-spacing: -0.01em; }
	159	+.eyebrow { font-family: var(--font-mono); font-size: 11px; letter-spacing: 0.1em; text-transform: uppercase; font-weight: 600; color: var(--text-2); }
	160	+.eyebrow-accent { color: var(--qc26-accent); }
	161	+.lede { font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6; color: var(--text-2); }
	162	+.prose-qc26 p { line-height: 1.7; }
	163	+.prose-qc26 b { color: var(--text); }
75	164
	165	+/* ================================================================ surfaces */
76	166	.card { background: var(--surface); border: 1px solid var(--border); border-radius: var(--radius); box-shadow: var(--shadow-sm); }
77	167	.card-lg { border-radius: var(--radius-lg); }
	168	+.card-flat { box-shadow: none; }
	169	+.card-hover { transition: transform 0.18s ease, box-shadow 0.18s ease, border-color 0.18s ease; }
	170	+.card-hover:hover { box-shadow: var(--shadow-md); border-color: var(--border-strong); transform: translateY(-1px); }
78	171	.hairline { border-color: var(--border); }
79	172	.surface-2 { background: var(--surface-2); }
	173	+.surface-3 { background: var(--surface-3); }
	174	+.inset { background: var(--surface-2); border-radius: var(--radius-sm); }
	175	+.ink-panel { background: var(--qc26); color: var(--text-inverse); }
	176	+.hero-glow { background-image: var(--hero-glow); }
	177	+.glass { background: var(--header-bg); backdrop-filter: saturate(160%) blur(14px); -webkit-backdrop-filter: saturate(160%) blur(14px); }
	178	+.divider { height: 1px; background: var(--border); }
	179	+.rule-top { border-top: 2px solid var(--text); }
	180	+.section-num { font-family: var(--font-mono); font-size: 11px; color: var(--text-3); letter-spacing: 0.08em; }
80	181
81		−/* Dans @layer base pour que les utilitaires Tailwind (text-white, etc.) gardent la priorité. */
82		−@layer base {
83		− a { color: inherit; text-decoration: none; }
84		− a:hover { text-decoration: none; }
85		−}
86		−.link { color: var(--qc26-accent); }
	182	+/* ================================================================ buttons */
	183	+.btn { display: inline-flex; align-items: center; gap: 8px; border-radius: 10px; padding: 10px 16px; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 600; border: 1px solid transparent; transition: background-color 0.15s, color 0.15s, border-color 0.15s, transform 0.1s; white-space: nowrap; }
	184	+.btn:active { transform: translateY(1px); }
	185	+.btn-primary { background: var(--text); color: var(--text-inverse); }
	186	+.btn-primary:hover { background: var(--qc26-accent-strong); color: #fff; }
	187	+.btn-accent { background: var(--qc26-accent); color: var(--qc26-accent-ink); }
	188	+.btn-accent:hover { background: var(--qc26-accent-strong); }
	189	+.btn-ghost { background: var(--surface); border-color: var(--border-strong); color: var(--text); }
	190	+.btn-ghost:hover { background: var(--surface-2); }
	191	+.btn-sm { padding: 6px 11px; font-size: 12.5px; border-radius: 8px; }
	192	+.link { color: var(--qc26-accent); font-weight: 500; }
87	193	.link:hover { text-decoration: underline; text-underline-offset: 3px; }
	194	+.chip { display: inline-flex; align-items: center; gap: 6px; border-radius: 999px; padding: 6px 12px; font-size: 13px; font-weight: 500; border: 1px solid var(--border); background: var(--surface); transition: background-color 0.15s, border-color 0.15s, color 0.15s; }
	195	+.chip:hover { background: var(--surface-2); }
	196	+.chip-active { background: var(--text); color: var(--text-inverse); border-color: var(--text); }
	197	+.chip-active:hover { background: var(--text); }
88	198
89		−::selection { background: rgba(37, 99, 235, 0.18); }
90		−:focus-visible { outline: 2px solid var(--qc26-accent); outline-offset: 2px; border-radius: 4px; }
	199	+/* ================================================================ tables */
	200	+.data-table { width: 100%; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0; font-size: 13.5px; }
	201	+.data-table th { text-align: left; font-family: var(--font-mono); font-weight: 600; color: var(--text-2); font-size: 10.5px; letter-spacing: 0.08em; text-transform: uppercase; padding: 10px 12px; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border); white-space: nowrap; position: sticky; top: 0; background: var(--surface); z-index: 1; }
	202	+.data-table td { padding: 10px 12px; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border); vertical-align: middle; }
	203	+.data-table tr:last-child td { border-bottom: 0; }
	204	+.data-table tbody tr:hover { background: var(--surface-2); }
	205	+.data-table .r { text-align: right; }
	206	+select, input[type="text"], input[type="search"] { color: var(--text); background: var(--surface); }
	207	+input[type="range"] { accent-color: var(--qc26-accent); }
	208	+input[type="checkbox"] { accent-color: var(--qc26-accent); }
91	209
92		−/* -------------------------------------------------------------- utilities */
	210	+/* ================================================================ utilities */
93	211	.scrollbar-none { scrollbar-width: none; }
94	212	.scrollbar-none::-webkit-scrollbar { display: none; }
95	213	.safe-bottom { padding-bottom: max(env(safe-area-inset-bottom), 0px); }
96	214	.tabular { font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums; }
	215	+.pcolor { color: var(--pc); }
	216	+.pbg { background: var(--pc); }
97	217
98	218	@keyframes pulse-dot { 0%, 100% { opacity: 1; } 50% { opacity: 0.35; } }
99	219	.live-dot { width: 8px; height: 8px; border-radius: 999px; background: var(--live); display: inline-block; animation: pulse-dot 1.6s ease-in-out infinite; }
100		−@keyframes fade-up { from { opacity: 0; transform: translateY(6px); } to { opacity: 1; transform: none; } }
101		−.fade-up { animation: fade-up 0.35s ease-out both; }
	220	+@keyframes fade-up { from { opacity: 0; transform: translateY(8px); } to { opacity: 1; transform: none; } }
	221	+.fade-up { animation: fade-up 0.45s cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.7, 0.2, 1) both; }
	222	+.fade-up-2 { animation-delay: 0.08s; }
	223	+.fade-up-3 { animation-delay: 0.16s; }
102	224	@keyframes ticker-in { from { opacity: 0; transform: translateY(-4px); } to { opacity: 1; transform: none; } }
103	225	.ticker-in { animation: ticker-in 0.3s ease-out both; }
	226	+@keyframes grow-x { from { transform: scaleX(0); } to { transform: scaleX(1); } }
	227	+.grow-x { transform-origin: left; animation: grow-x 0.7s cubic-bezier(0.2, 0.7, 0.2, 1) both; }
104	228
105		−/* table */
106		−.data-table { width: 100%; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0; font-size: 13.5px; }
107		−.data-table th { text-align: left; font-weight: 600; color: var(--text-2); font-size: 11px; letter-spacing: 0.08em; text-transform: uppercase; padding: 10px 12px; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border); white-space: nowrap; position: sticky; top: 0; background: var(--surface); z-index: 1; }
108		−.data-table td { padding: 10px 12px; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border); vertical-align: middle; }
109		−.data-table tr:last-child td { border-bottom: 0; }
110		−.data-table tbody tr:hover { background: var(--surface-2); }
111		−.data-table .r { text-align: right; }
	229	+/* charts */
	230	+.chart-grid line { stroke: var(--grid); }
	231	+.chart-tip { position: absolute; pointer-events: none; z-index: 20; background: var(--surface); border: 1px solid var(--border-strong); border-radius: 10px; box-shadow: var(--shadow-md); padding: 8px 10px; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.35; min-width: 150px; }
112	232
113		−/* range input */
114		−input[type="range"] { accent-color: var(--qc26); }
	233	+/* waffle */
	234	+.waffle-dot { transition: fill 0.3s ease, opacity 0.3s ease; }
115	235
116	236	/* print */
117	237	@media print { header, nav, footer, .no-print { display: none !important; } body { background: #fff; } }

modified web/src/app/layout.tsx +21 −15

		`@@ -1,43 +1,49 @@`
1	1	import type { Metadata, Viewport } from "next";
2		−import { Inter } from "next/font/google";
	2	+import { Fraunces, Inter, JetBrains_Mono } from "next/font/google";
3	3	import Link from "next/link";
4	4	import "./globals.css";
5	5	import { apiSafe, SITE_URL, type Meta } from "@/lib/api";
6	6	import { MobileNav, TopNav, Wordmark } from "@/components/shell";
7	7	import { StatusStrip } from "@/components/status-strip";
	8	+import { THEME_INIT_SCRIPT } from "@/components/theme";
8	9	import { Disclaimer } from "@/components/ui";
9	10
10	11	const inter = Inter({ subsets: ["latin"], variable: "--font-inter", display: "swap" });
	12	+const fraunces = Fraunces({ subsets: ["latin"], variable: "--font-fraunces", display: "swap", axes: ["opsz", "SOFT"] });
	13	+const jetbrains = JetBrains_Mono({ subsets: ["latin"], variable: "--font-jetbrains", display: "swap", weight: ["400", "500", "600"] });
11	14
12	15	export const metadata: Metadata = {
13	16	metadataBase: new URL(SITE_URL),
14	17	title: { default: "QC26 — Québec 2026. Comprendre. Prévoir. Suivre.", template: "%s \| QC26" },
15		− description: "Prévisions, sondages, boussole électorale et résultats en direct de l'élection québécoise du 5 octobre 2026.",
	18	+ description: "Prévisions, sondages, marchés de prédiction, presse, boussole électorale et résultats en direct de l'élection québécoise du 5 octobre 2026.",
16	19	applicationName: "QC26",
17		− openGraph: { type: "website", siteName: "QC26", locale: "fr_CA", url: SITE_URL, title: "QC26 — L'élection québécoise, en données", description: "Prévisions, sondages, boussole électorale et résultats en direct de l'élection québécoise 2026." },
	20	+ openGraph: { type: "website", siteName: "QC26", locale: "fr_CA", url: SITE_URL, title: "QC26 — L'élection québécoise, en données", description: "Prévisions, sondages, signaux alternatifs, boussole électorale et résultats en direct de l'élection québécoise 2026." },
18	21	twitter: { card: "summary_large_image", title: "QC26", description: "L'élection québécoise 2026, en données." },
19	22	robots: { index: true, follow: true },
20	23	alternates: { canonical: "/" },
21	24	};
22		−export const viewport: Viewport = { themeColor: "#F7F8FA", width: "device-width", initialScale: 1, viewportFit: "cover" };
	25	+export const viewport: Viewport = { themeColor: "#f6f5f1", width: "device-width", initialScale: 1, viewportFit: "cover" };
23	26
24	27	export default async function RootLayout({ children }: { children: React.ReactNode }) {
25	28	const meta = await apiSafe<Meta>("/api/meta", { revalidate: 60 });
26	29	const mode = meta?.mode ?? "forecast";
27	30	const days = meta?.daysToElection ?? Math.ceil((new Date("2026-10-05T00:00:00-04:00").getTime() - Date.now()) / 86400000);
28	31	return (
29		− <html lang="fr-CA" className={inter.variable}>
	32	+ <html lang="fr-CA" className={`${inter.variable} ${fraunces.variable} ${jetbrains.variable}`} suppressHydrationWarning>
	33	+ <head>
	34	+ <script dangerouslySetInnerHTML={{ __html: THEME_INIT_SCRIPT }} />
	35	+ </head>
30	36	<body className="pb-[calc(var(--bottom-nav-h)+env(safe-area-inset-bottom))] lg:pb-0">
31		− <TopNav daysToElection={days} mode={mode} />
32		− <main className="mx-auto max-w-[1280px] px-4 md:px-6 py-6 md:py-8">{children}</main>
33		− <footer className="border-t border-border mt-16">
34		− <div className="mx-auto max-w-[1280px] px-4 md:px-6 py-10 grid gap-8 md:grid-cols-[1.4fr_1fr_1fr_1fr]">
	37	+ <TopNav daysToElection={days} mode={mode} modelVersion={meta?.modelVersion} />
	38	+ <main className="mx-auto max-w-[1320px] px-4 md:px-6 py-6 md:py-10">{children}</main>
	39	+ <footer className="border-t border-border mt-20">
	40	+ <div className="mx-auto max-w-[1320px] px-4 md:px-6 py-12 grid gap-10 md:grid-cols-[1.5fr_1fr_1fr_1fr]">
35	41	<div>
36		− <Wordmark size={26} />
37		− <p className="text-[13.5px] text-ink-2 mt-3 max-w-sm leading-relaxed">Québec 2026. Comprendre. Prévoir. Suivre. Plateforme indépendante de données, d'analyse et de prévision consacrée à l'élection générale du 5 octobre 2026.</p>
38		− <div className="mt-4"><Disclaimer text={meta?.disclaimer} /></div>
	42	+ <Wordmark size={28} />
	43	+ <p className="text-[14px] text-ink-2 mt-4 max-w-sm leading-relaxed">Québec 2026. Comprendre. Prévoir. Suivre. Plateforme indépendante de données, d'analyse et de prévision consacrée à l'élection générale du 5 octobre 2026.</p>
	44	+ <div className="mt-5"><Disclaimer text={meta?.disclaimer} /></div>
39	45	</div>
40		− <FooterCol title="Données" links={[["/prevision", "Prévision"], ["/sondages", "Sondages"], ["/carte", "Carte"], ["/circonscriptions", "Circonscriptions"], ["/live", mode === "forecast" ? "Soirée électorale" : "Direct"]]} />
	46	+ <FooterCol title="Prévision" links={[["/prevision", "Prévision"], ["/signaux", "Au-delà des sondages"], ["/sondages", "Sondages"], ["/carte", "Carte"], ["/circonscriptions", "Circonscriptions"], ["/live", mode === "forecast" ? "Soirée électorale" : "Direct"]]} />
41	47	<FooterCol title="Partis" links={[["/partis", "Partis"], ["/partis/comparateur", "Comparateur"], ["/enjeux", "Enjeux"], ["/documents", "Bibliothèque documentaire"], ["/boussole", "Boussole"]]} />
42	48	<FooterCol title="Transparence" links={[["/methodologie", "Méthodologie"], ["/methodologie/changelog", "Changelog du modèle"], ["/statut", "Statut des données"], ["/api/docs", "API"], ["/admin", "Administration"]]} />
43	49	</div>
		`@@ -53,8 +59,8 @@ function FooterCol({ title, links }: { title: string; links: [string, string][]`
53	59	return (
54	60	<div>
55	61	<div className="eyebrow mb-3">{title}</div>
56		− <ul className="space-y-2 text-[13.5px]">
57		− {links.map(([href, label]) => (<li key={href}><Link href={href} className="text-ink-2 hover:text-ink">{label}</Link></li>))}
	62	+ <ul className="space-y-2 text-[14px]">
	63	+ {links.map(([href, label]) => (<li key={href}><Link href={href} className="text-ink-2 hover:text-ink transition-colors">{label}</Link></li>))}
58	64	</ul>
59	65	</div>
60	66	);

modified web/src/app/live/model-vs-reality/page.tsx +3 −3

		`@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ import Link from "next/link";`
3	3	import { apiSafe } from "@/lib/api";
4	4	import { PartyBadge } from "@/components/party";
5	5	import { Card, Empty, SectionHeader } from "@/components/ui";
6		−import { PARTY_IDS, partyColor, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
	6	+import { PARTY_IDS, partyVar, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
7	7	import { pct, prob } from "@/lib/format";
8	8
9	9	export const metadata: Metadata = { title: "Modèle vs réalité", description: "Précision de la prévision QC26 face aux résultats : circonscriptions correctes, surprises, tossups, calibration, erreur sur les sièges." };
		`@@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ export default async function Page() {`
17	17	const acc = d.ridingsCompared ? d.correct / d.ridingsCompared : null;
18	18	return (
19	19	<div className="space-y-10">
20		− <div><Link href="/live" className="text-[12.5px] text-ink-3 hover:text-ink">← Direct</Link><h1 className="display text-[36px] md:text-[48px] mt-2">Modèle vs réalité</h1><p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 max-w-2xl text-[15px]">QC26 assume publiquement ses erreurs. Cette page compare la dernière prévision publiée avant 20 h (run #{d.runId}) aux résultats officiels, au fil de la soirée puis en version finale.</p></div>
	20	+ <div><Link href="/live" className="text-[12.5px] text-ink-3 hover:text-ink">← Direct</Link><h1 className="display text-[40px] md:text-[56px] mt-3">Modèle vs réalité</h1><p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 max-w-2xl text-[15px]">QC26 assume publiquement ses erreurs. Cette page compare la dernière prévision publiée avant 20 h (run #{d.runId}) aux résultats officiels, au fil de la soirée puis en version finale.</p></div>
21	21	{d.ridingsCompared === 0 ? <Empty title="En attente des premiers résultats">Les métriques apparaîtront dès que des circonscriptions rapporteront.</Empty> : (
22	22	<>
23	23	<div className="grid sm:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4 gap-3">
		`@@ -26,7 +26,7 @@ export default async function Page() {`
26	26	<Card><div className="eyebrow">Tossups corrects</div><div className="num display text-[40px] mt-1">{d.tossups.correct}<span className="text-ink-3 text-[20px]"> / {d.tossups.total}</span></div><div className="text-[12.5px] text-ink-2">courses classées « serré »</div></Card>
27	27	<Card><div className="eyebrow">Seat MAE</div><div className="num display text-[40px] mt-1">{d.seatMAE !== null ? d.seatMAE.toFixed(1).replace(".", ",") : "—"}</div><div className="text-[12.5px] text-ink-2">{d.seatMAE !== null ? "erreur absolue moyenne (sièges, final)" : "disponible au dépouillement complet"}</div></Card>
28	28	</div>
29		− <section><SectionHeader eyebrow="Sièges" title="Forecast vs Live" /><Card pad={false}><table className="data-table"><thead><tr><th>Parti</th><th className="r">Forecast (médiane)</th><th className="r">Élus</th><th className="r">En avance</th><th className="r">Live</th><th className="r">Écart</th></tr></thead><tbody>{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => { const live = (d.liveSeats[id]?.elected ?? 0) + (d.liveSeats[id]?.leading ?? 0); return <tr key={id}><td><PartyBadge id={id} size="sm" /></td><td className="r num">{d.forecastSeats[id]}</td><td className="r num">{d.liveSeats[id]?.elected ?? 0}</td><td className="r num">{d.liveSeats[id]?.leading ?? 0}</td><td className="r num font-bold" style={{ color: partyColor(id) }}>{live}</td><td className="r num">{live - d.forecastSeats[id] > 0 ? "+" : ""}{live - d.forecastSeats[id]}</td></tr>; })}</tbody></table></Card></section>
	29	+ <section><SectionHeader eyebrow="Sièges" title="Forecast vs Live" /><Card pad={false}><table className="data-table"><thead><tr><th>Parti</th><th className="r">Forecast (médiane)</th><th className="r">Élus</th><th className="r">En avance</th><th className="r">Live</th><th className="r">Écart</th></tr></thead><tbody>{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => { const live = (d.liveSeats[id]?.elected ?? 0) + (d.liveSeats[id]?.leading ?? 0); return <tr key={id}><td><PartyBadge id={id} size="sm" /></td><td className="r num">{d.forecastSeats[id]}</td><td className="r num">{d.liveSeats[id]?.elected ?? 0}</td><td className="r num">{d.liveSeats[id]?.leading ?? 0}</td><td className="r num font-bold" style={{ color: partyVar(id) }}>{live}</td><td className="r num">{live - d.forecastSeats[id] > 0 ? "+" : ""}{live - d.forecastSeats[id]}</td></tr>; })}</tbody></table></Card></section>
30	30	<section><SectionHeader eyebrow="Calibration" title="Probabilité annoncée vs fréquence observée" description="Dans une prévision calibrée, les favoris à 70–80 % gagnent environ 75 % du temps." /><Card><div className="grid grid-cols-2 sm:grid-cols-5 gap-2">{Object.entries(d.calibration).map(([b, v]) => (<div key={b} className="surface-2 rounded-[8px] p-3 text-center"><div className="text-[11.5px] text-ink-3 num">{b} %</div><div className="num font-bold text-[20px]">{v.n ? Math.round((100 * v.hits) / v.n) : "—"} %</div><div className="text-[11.5px] text-ink-3 num">{v.hits}/{v.n} corrects</div></div>))}</div></Card></section>
31	31	<section><SectionHeader eyebrow="Surprises de la soirée" title="Upsets" /><Card pad={false}>{d.upsets.length === 0 ? <div className="p-6 text-center text-ink-3 text-[13.5px]">Aucune surprise pour l'instant.</div> : <table className="data-table"><thead><tr><th>Circonscription</th><th>Favori QC26</th><th className="r">Probabilité initiale</th><th>Leader actuel</th><th className="r">Bureaux</th><th className="r">Marge</th></tr></thead><tbody>{d.upsets.map((u) => <tr key={u.code}><td><Link href={`/circonscription/${u.slug}`} className="hover:underline font-medium">{u.name}</Link></td><td><PartyBadge id={u.favorite} size="sm" /></td><td className="r num">{prob(u.p)}</td><td><PartyBadge id={u.leader} size="sm" /> {u.final && <span className="text-[10.5px] uppercase text-ok">final</span>}</td><td className="r num">{u.bureaux[0]}/{u.bureaux[1]}</td><td className="r num">{pct(u.marginPct)}</td></tr>)}</tbody></table>}</Card></section>
32	32	<p className="text-[12px] text-ink-3">{partyLabel("pq")} et autres sigles : voir <Link href="/partis" className="link">Partis</Link>.</p>

modified web/src/app/live/page.tsx +1 −1

		`@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ export default async function Page() {`
14	14	if (meta.mode === "forecast" && !st?.simulation) {
15	15	return (
16	16	<div className="space-y-8 max-w-3xl">
17		− <div><div className="eyebrow">QC26 Live · prêt</div><h1 className="display text-[36px] md:text-[48px] mt-2">Soirée électorale du {dateFr(meta.electionDate)}</h1><p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 text-[15px] leading-relaxed">À la fermeture des bureaux (20 h), QC26 bascule automatiquement en mode DIRECT : résultats officiels d'Élections Québec toutes les 2 à 5 minutes, carte qui se colore bureau par bureau, ticker, nowcast et probabilité de majorité en temps réel, comparaison prévision–réalité. Même produit, même adresse.</p></div>
	17	+ <div><div className="eyebrow eyebrow-accent">QC26 Live · prêt</div><h1 className="display text-[40px] md:text-[56px] mt-3">Soirée électorale du {dateFr(meta.electionDate)}</h1><p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 text-[15px] leading-relaxed">À la fermeture des bureaux (20 h), QC26 bascule automatiquement en mode DIRECT : résultats officiels d'Élections Québec toutes les 2 à 5 minutes, carte qui se colore bureau par bureau, ticker, nowcast et probabilité de majorité en temps réel, comparaison prévision–réalité. Même produit, même adresse.</p></div>
18	18	<div className="grid sm:grid-cols-2 gap-3">
19	19	{[["Flux officiel", "donnees.electionsquebec.qc.ca — JSON officiel, validé, archivé à chaque changement, mis en quarantaine en cas d'anomalie."], ["Forecast vs Live", "La dernière projection publiée avant 20 h est figée et comparée aux résultats, siège par siège."], ["Nowcast", "Prior QC26 + résultats partiels → probabilité de majorité mise à jour à chaque snapshot."], ["Replay", "Chaque snapshot est conservé : la soirée pourra être rejouée seconde par seconde."]].map(([t, d]) => <Card key={t}><div className="font-semibold">{t}</div><div className="text-[13.5px] text-ink-2 mt-1">{d}</div></Card>)}
20	20	</div>

modified web/src/app/methodologie/changelog/page.tsx +1 −1

		`@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ export default async function Page() {`
14	14	if (!d) return <Empty title="Indisponible" />;
15	15	return (
16	16	<div className="space-y-10 max-w-3xl">
17		− <div><Link href="/methodologie" className="text-[12.5px] text-ink-3 hover:text-ink">← Méthodologie</Link><h1 className="display text-[36px] md:text-[48px] mt-2">Changelog</h1><p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 text-[15px]">La transparence est une caractéristique du produit : chaque changement de méthode est daté et expliqué ; chaque run est conservé.</p></div>
	17	+ <div><Link href="/methodologie" className="text-[12.5px] text-ink-3 hover:text-ink">← Méthodologie</Link><h1 className="display text-[40px] md:text-[56px] mt-3">Changelog</h1><p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 text-[15px]">La transparence est une caractéristique du produit : chaque changement de méthode est daté et expliqué ; chaque run est conservé.</p></div>
18	18	<section><SectionHeader eyebrow="Versions du modèle" title="Changements de méthode" />
19	19	<div className="space-y-3">{d.changelog.map((c) => (<Card key={c.version}><div className="flex items-center gap-3"><Badge tone="ink">v{c.version}</Badge><b>{c.title}</b><span className="text-ink-3 text-[12.5px] ml-auto num">{dateFr(c.date)}</span></div><ul className="list-disc pl-5 mt-3 space-y-1 text-[14px] text-ink-2">{c.notes.map((n, i) => <li key={i}>{n}</li>)}</ul></Card>))}</div>
20	20	</section>

modified web/src/app/methodologie/page.tsx +15 −5

		`@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ export const revalidate = 600;`
9	9
10	10	const SECTIONS = [
11	11	["vue", "Vue d'ensemble"], ["agregation", "Agrégation des sondages"], ["maison", "Effets maison"], ["temporel", "Modèle temporel"], ["regional", "Projection régionale"],
12		− ["circonscriptions", "Modèle de circonscription"], ["montecarlo", "Monte Carlo"], ["incertitude", "Incertitude"], ["nowcast", "Nowcast"], ["boussole", "Boussole"], ["sources", "Sources"], ["limites", "Limites"],
	12	+ ["circonscriptions", "Modèle de circonscription"], ["montecarlo", "Monte Carlo"], ["signaux", "Au-delà des sondages (v2)"], ["incertitude", "Incertitude"], ["nowcast", "Nowcast"], ["boussole", "Boussole"], ["sources", "Sources"], ["limites", "Limites"],
13	13	];
14	14
15	15	export default async function Page() {
		`@@ -19,9 +19,9 @@ export default async function Page() {`
19	19	<div className="grid lg:grid-cols-[220px_1fr] gap-10">
20	20	<nav className="hidden lg:block sticky top-20 self-start text-[13px] space-y-1.5" aria-label="Sections"><div className="eyebrow mb-2">Méthodologie</div>{SECTIONS.map(([id, l]) => <a key={id} href={`#${id}`} className="block text-ink-2 hover:text-ink">{l}</a>)}<Link href="/methodologie/changelog" className="block link mt-3">Changelog →</Link></nav>
21	21	<article className="prose-qc26 max-w-3xl space-y-10 text-[15px] leading-relaxed text-ink">
22		− <div><div className="eyebrow">Méthodologie · Modèle {meta?.modelVersion ?? "1.0.0"}</div><h1 className="display text-[36px] md:text-[48px] mt-2">Comment QC26 calcule</h1><p className="text-ink-2 mt-3">Ce document décrit précisément ce que fait le moteur QC26, dans l'ordre où il le fait. Chaque paramètre cité est celui du code en production ; chaque changement est consigné dans le <Link href="/methodologie/changelog" className="link">changelog</Link>.</p></div>
	22	+ <div><div className="eyebrow eyebrow-accent">Méthodologie · Modèle {meta?.modelVersion ?? "2.0.0"}</div><h1 className="display text-[40px] md:text-[56px] mt-3">Comment QC26 calcule</h1><p className="text-ink-2 mt-3">Ce document décrit précisément ce que fait le moteur QC26, dans l'ordre où il le fait. Chaque paramètre cité est celui du code en production ; chaque changement est consigné dans le <Link href="/methodologie/changelog" className="link">changelog</Link>.</p></div>
23	23
24		− <Section id="vue" title="Vue d'ensemble"><p>QC26 combine trois couches : (1) une <b>moyenne des sondages</b> corrigée et lissée dans le temps, (2) un <b>modèle de circonscription</b> qui projette cette moyenne sur les {seats} circonscriptions à partir des résultats de 2022 transposés sur la carte 2026, (3) une <b>simulation Monte Carlo</b> ({int(f?.nSimulations ?? 20000)} élections) qui propage toutes les sources d'erreur et produit des probabilités. Le seuil de majorité ({maj}) est dérivé du nombre officiel de circonscriptions, jamais codé en dur.</p></Section>
	24	+ <Section id="vue" title="Vue d'ensemble"><p>QC26 combine, depuis la version 2.0, une moyenne des sondages et quatre familles de signaux indépendants (<Link href="#signaux" className="link">marchés de prédiction, fondamentaux, momentum, partielles</Link>), puis trois couches : (1) une <b>moyenne des sondages</b> corrigée et lissée dans le temps, (2) un <b>modèle de circonscription</b> qui projette cette moyenne sur les {seats} circonscriptions à partir des résultats de 2022 transposés sur la carte 2026, (3) une <b>simulation Monte Carlo</b> ({int(f?.nSimulations ?? 20000)} élections) qui propage toutes les sources d'erreur et produit des probabilités. Le seuil de majorité ({maj}) est dérivé du nombre officiel de circonscriptions, jamais codé en dur.</p></Section>
25	25
26	26	<Section id="agregation" title="Agrégation des sondages"><p>Tout sondage provincial publié depuis le scrutin du 3 octobre 2022 est ingéré. Le document original de la firme (PDF) est téléchargé, haché (SHA-256), archivé et extrait page par page ; un modèle de langage propose une lecture structurée qui est ensuite validée mécaniquement : partis reconnus, somme des intentions entre 94 et 106 %, dates cohérentes, taille d'échantillon plausible, concordance avec un index tiers. Un sondage qui échoue à la validation est exclu et affiché comme tel.</p>
27	27	<p>Chaque sondage reçoit un poids = récence × échantillon × qualité. La récence suit une décroissance exponentielle de demi-vie 14 jours (7 jours en période électorale) ; l'échantillon compte pour √(n/1000), n plafonné à 2 500 pour éviter la domination des très gros sondages ; la qualité vaut 1 pour un document original validé, 0,85 pour une valeur d'index en attente de document.</p></Section>
		`@@ -40,15 +40,25 @@ export default async function Page() {`
40	40
41	41	<Section id="montecarlo" title="Monte Carlo"><p>{int(f?.nSimulations ?? 20000)} tirages du vote national (loi normale multivariée dans l'espace logit), chacun propagé aux {seats} circonscriptions. On en déduit les distributions de sièges, P(plus de sièges), P(majorité), P(minoritaire), les probabilités de victoire par circonscription et le classement des circonscriptions « à surveiller » (1 − probabilité du favori). Chaque run enregistre sa graine, son commit et sa date d'arrêt des données.</p></Section>
42	42
	43	+ <Section id="signaux" title="Au-delà des sondages (modèle 2.0)">
	44	+ <p>Les sondages restent le cœur du modèle. Quatre signaux indépendants, tous archivés avec leur provenance et publiés séparément (<Link href="/signaux" className="link">page Signaux</Link>, champ <code className="mono text-[13px]">summary.components</code> de l'API), les corrigent à la marge. Aucun n'est saisi à la main ; l'absence d'un signal désactive simplement sa composante.</p>
	45	+ <ol className="list-decimal pl-5 space-y-2">
	46	+ <li><b>Marchés de prédiction (Polymarket)</b>. Marchés « plus de sièges » par parti, « majorité PQ », tranches de sièges (PQ, CAQ, PLQ), 2e et 3e place ; prix « Oui » lus par l'API publique, historique quotidien archivé, marchés de moins de 5 000 $ ou périmés (> 72 h) ignorés. Plutôt que de mélanger des probabilités incohérentes, QC26 <b>repondère ses 20 000 simulations</b> (ajustement proportionnel itératif) pour que les probabilités de l'ensemble valent (1 − w)·modèle + w·marché, avec w = 0,30 pour le vainqueur et la majorité et w = 0,15 pour les tranches. Sièges, circonscriptions et intervalles restent ceux des mêmes simulations, pesées ; la taille d'échantillon effective (ESS) est publiée.</li>
	47	+ <li><b>Fondamentaux</b>. Les rapports de sondage contiennent des questions structurantes (satisfaction à l'égard du gouvernement, meilleur·e premier·ère ministre, favorabilité des chef·fes, deuxième choix, souveraineté) que QC26 extrait avec la page citée. La satisfaction, pondérée récence (demi-vie 30 j) × √n, fixe un prior sur la part du parti sortant : part ≈ 6 + 0,6 × satisfaction (σ 5,5 pt ; calibration indicative sur les scrutins québécois de 2003 à 2022, les autres partis se partageant le reste au prorata des sondages). Ce prior est mélangé à l'état latent dans l'espace logit avec un poids qui vaut 20 % à 120 jours du vote et décroît linéairement jusqu'à 0 le jour J : loin du scrutin, les fondamentaux tempèrent les sondages ; le jour du vote, seuls les sondages comptent.</li>
	48	+ <li><b>Momentum</b>. Trois indicateurs de dynamique sont convertis en un déplacement de la moyenne du vote au jour du scrutin : prime au chef (part « meilleur PM » parmi les répondants décidés − intention de vote, κ 0,15), attention publique (variation de la part des pages vues Wikipédia des partis et chef·fes, 7 j vs 28 j, κ 0,08 pt par point) et ton médiatique (titres de presse des 7 derniers jours classés par un modèle de langage, ton −1…+1 par parti, κ 0,5, atténué sous 10 articles). Le total est écrêté à ± 1 pt puis recentré à somme nulle : le momentum déplace du vote entre partis, il n'en crée pas.</li>
	49	+ <li><b>Élections partielles</b>. Les cinq partielles tenues depuis octobre 2022 (résultats officiels DGEQ, tableau rendu puis archivé) sont comparées au résultat de l'élection générale 2022 dans la même circonscription. L'excès de swing local — le swing observé moins le swing national de la moyenne QC26 à la date de la partielle — corrige le prior de la circonscription 2026 correspondante, rétréci (κ 0,35, borné ± 1 logit). Les partielles corrigent aussi la liste des député·es sortant·es, désormais tirée du drapeau officiel de la liste des candidatures.</li>
	50	+ </ol>
	51	+ <p>La vue « sondages seuls » (v1 : mêmes aléas, sans fondamentaux, momentum, partielles ni marchés) et la vue « modèle sans marchés » sont calculées à chaque run et publiées à côté de l'ensemble, pour que l'effet de chaque composante soit toujours lisible.</p></Section>
	52	+
43	53	<Section id="incertitude" title="Incertitude"><p>Les intervalles affichés sont des percentiles des simulations (80 % : 10–90 ; 95 % : 2,5–97,5). Ils intègrent l'erreur d'échantillonnage, l'erreur d'industrie, la dérive jusqu'au scrutin et les erreurs régionales et locales. Une carte QC26 n'affiche jamais une circonscription comme « gagnée » avant le vote : l'opacité traduit la probabilité.</p></Section>
44	54
45	55	<Section id="nowcast" title="Nowcast (soirée électorale)"><p>Après 20 h, un modèle distinct combine le dernier forecast (prior) et les résultats officiels partiels d'Élections Québec. Dans chaque circonscription, la part estimée = w·observé + (1 − w)·(prior + swing national observé), où w est la fraction des bureaux dépouillés et le swing observé (écart pondéré entre résultats et prior dans les circonscriptions qui rapportent) est rétréci quand la couverture est faible. 4 000 simulations recalculent sièges et probabilité de majorité à chaque mise à jour. Un statut « Projeté QC26 » exige p ≥ 99,5 %, ≥ 30 % des bureaux et une marge ≥ 5 pts ; « Élu·e » et « Final » viennent uniquement des données officielles.</p></Section>
46	56
47	57	<Section id="boussole" title="Boussole"><p>48 énoncés sur 6 axes. Les positions des partis sont dérivées exclusivement des propositions extraites de leurs documents officiels (page + citation vérifiée dans le texte) : un modèle de langage situe le parti sur l'échelle −2…+2 <i>uniquement</i> si les propositions le permettent, sinon la position est « introuvable » et la question ne compte pas pour ce parti. La concordance utilisateur–parti est 1 − \|u − p\|/4, pondérée par l'importance. Les réponses restent dans le navigateur.</p></Section>
48	58
49		− <Section id="sources" title="Sources"><ul className="list-disc pl-5 space-y-1"><li><b>Élections Québec</b> (données ouvertes officielles) : liste et géométrie des 127 circonscriptions 2026, électeurs inscrits, candidatures, partis autorisés et chef·fes, résultats 2018 et 2022 par circonscription et par section de vote, résultats du soir du vote.</li><li><b>Firmes de sondage</b> : documents originaux (Léger, Pallas Data, Synopsis, Angus Reid, Mainstreet, SEGMA, Abacus, Research Co., etc.).</li><li><b>Sites officiels des partis</b> : plateformes, programmes, engagements, cadres financiers, communiqués — versionnés.</li><li><b>Statistique Canada</b> : Recensement de la population 2021, profil des aires de diffusion agrégées et fichier des limites, agrégés aux 127 circonscriptions (langue, immigration, âge, revenu, tenure, scolarité, chômage).</li><li>Un index tiers (Wikipédia) sert uniquement à amorcer la liste des sondages et à repérer les documents originaux ; il est remplacé dès que le document est archivé.</li></ul></Section>
	59	+ <Section id="sources" title="Sources"><ul className="list-disc pl-5 space-y-1"><li><b>Élections Québec</b> (données ouvertes officielles) : liste et géométrie des 127 circonscriptions 2026, électeurs inscrits, candidatures, partis autorisés et chef·fes, résultats 2018 et 2022 par circonscription et par section de vote, résultats du soir du vote.</li><li><b>Firmes de sondage</b> : documents originaux (Léger, Pallas Data, Synopsis, Angus Reid, Mainstreet, SEGMA, Abacus, Research Co., etc.).</li><li><b>Sites officiels des partis</b> : plateformes, programmes, engagements, cadres financiers, communiqués — versionnés.</li><li><b>Polymarket</b> (API Gamma / CLOB publiques) : marchés « Quebec General Election » — prix, volumes, liquidité, historique quotidien.</li><li><b>Wikimedia</b> (API REST pageviews) : pages vues quotidiennes des articles Wikipédia FR des cinq partis et de leurs chef·fes.</li><li><b>Presse québécoise</b> via Google Actualités (Serper) : titres, médias, dates et URL des 48 dernières heures par parti ; classement (partis concernés, ton, sujet) par modèle de langage, validé mécaniquement. GDELT DOC 2.0 (volume et ton, Canada, français) en complément quand l'API répond.</li><li><b>Élections Québec</b> : résultats officiels des élections partielles depuis 2022.</li><li><b>Statistique Canada</b> : Recensement de la population 2021, profil des aires de diffusion agrégées et fichier des limites, agrégés aux 127 circonscriptions (langue, immigration, âge, revenu, tenure, scolarité, chômage).</li><li>Un index tiers (Wikipédia) sert uniquement à amorcer la liste des sondages et à repérer les documents originaux ; il est remplacé dès que le document est archivé.</li></ul></Section>
50	60
51		− <Section id="limites" title="Limites"><ul className="list-disc pl-5 space-y-1"><li>Le swing est uniforme ; les dynamiques régionales spécifiques (Québec, Montréal, régions) ne sont captées que par un bruit régional, pas encore par les ventilations des sondages.</li><li>Les effets candidats se limitent au retrait du sortant ; notoriété locale et vedettes ne sont pas modélisées.</li><li>L'erreur d'industrie est calibrée sur deux élections seulement.</li><li>Le nombre de sondages par firme est faible pour plusieurs maisons : leurs effets maison ne sont pas estimés (aucune correction appliquée).</li><li>L'extraction documentaire dépend d'un modèle de langage ; les propositions à faible confiance sont mises en file de révision et non publiées.</li></ul><div className="mt-4"><Disclaimer /></div></Section>
	61	+ <Section id="limites" title="Limites"><ul className="list-disc pl-5 space-y-1"><li>Le swing est proportionnel, corrigé par langue et région ; les dynamiques locales ne sont captées que par le bruit régional, les partielles et le retrait des sortants.</li><li>Les marchés de prédiction sur le Québec sont minces (quelques centaines de milliers de dollars, marchés de tranches peu liquides) : leur poids est plafonné à 30 % et ils n'entrent que par repondération.</li><li>Le prior fondamentaux repose sur une calibration indicative (sept scrutins) et disparaît le jour du vote ; le ton médiatique dépend d'un classement automatique de titres, borné et affiché.</li><li>Les effets candidats se limitent au retrait du sortant ; notoriété locale et vedettes ne sont pas modélisées.</li><li>L'erreur d'industrie est calibrée sur deux élections seulement.</li><li>Le nombre de sondages par firme est faible pour plusieurs maisons : leurs effets maison ne sont pas estimés (aucune correction appliquée).</li><li>L'extraction documentaire dépend d'un modèle de langage ; les propositions à faible confiance sont mises en file de révision et non publiées.</li></ul><div className="mt-4"><Disclaimer /></div></Section>
52	62	</article>
53	63	</div>
54	64	);

modified web/src/app/page.tsx +54 −29

		`@@ -1,103 +1,128 @@`
1	1	import Link from "next/link";
2		−import { api, apiSafe, type Forecast, type Meta, type Party, type Poll, type RidingListItem } from "@/lib/api";
3		−import { Battlegrounds, HeroForecast, LatestPolls, MajorityPanel, PopularVoteTable, RegionalGrid, SeatProjectionTable, WhatChanged } from "@/components/forecast-blocks";
	2	+import { apiSafe, type Forecast, type Meta, type Party, type Poll, type RidingListItem, type SignalsPayload } from "@/lib/api";
	3	+import { Battlegrounds, ComponentsCompare, HeroForecast, LatestPolls, MajorityPanel, PopularVoteTable, RegionalGrid, SeatProjectionTable, WhatChanged } from "@/components/forecast-blocks";
4	4	import { MapSection } from "@/components/map-section";
5		−import { Legend, SeatMeter, TrendChart } from "@/components/charts";
	5	+import { Legend, SeatMeter } from "@/components/charts";
	6	+import { TrendChartInteractive } from "@/components/trend-chart";
	7	+import { MarketsPanel, MediaPanel, SignalsOverview } from "@/components/signals";
6	8	import { PartyLogo } from "@/components/party";
7	9	import { Card, Empty, SectionHeader } from "@/components/ui";
8		−import { PARTY_IDS, partyColor } from "@/lib/parties";
	10	+import { PARTY_IDS, partyVar } from "@/lib/parties";
9	11	import { int, prob } from "@/lib/format";
10	12	import { LiveHome } from "@/components/live";
11	13
12	14	export const revalidate = 60;
13	15
14	16	export default async function Home() {
15		− const [meta, f, polls, ridings, regions, parties] = await Promise.all([
	17	+ const [meta, f, polls, ridings, regions, parties, sig] = await Promise.all([
16	18	apiSafe<Meta>("/api/meta"),
17	19	apiSafe<Forecast>("/api/forecast/latest"),
18	20	apiSafe<{ polls: Poll[] }>("/api/polls?limit=8"),
19	21	apiSafe<{ ridings: RidingListItem[] }>("/api/ridings"),
20	22	apiSafe<{ regions: { id: string; name: string; ridings: number; favorites: Record<string, number>; voteNow: Record<string, number>; vote2022: Record<string, number> }[] }>("/api/regions"),
21	23	apiSafe<{ parties: Party[] }>("/api/parties"),
	24	+ apiSafe<SignalsPayload>("/api/signals"),
22	25	]);
23	26	if (!meta \|\| !f) return <Empty title="Le moteur QC26 est temporairement indisponible">Les projections seront de retour dans quelques instants.</Empty>;
24	27	if (meta.mode !== "forecast") return <LiveHome meta={meta} forecast={f} />;
25	28
26	29	const ridingNames = Object.fromEntries((ridings?.ridings ?? []).map((r) => [r.code, { name: r.name, slug: r.slug }]));
27	30	const seats = Object.fromEntries(Object.entries(f.parties).map(([k, v]) => [k, v.seatsMedian]));
28		− const from = new Date(); from.setDate(from.getDate() - 180);
29		− const pollPts = (polls?.polls ?? []).map((p) => ({ date: p.fieldworkEnd, values: p.results }));
	31	+ const from = new Date(); from.setDate(from.getDate() - 182);
	32	+ const pollPts = (polls?.polls ?? []).map((p) => ({ date: p.fieldworkEnd, values: p.results, pollster: p.pollster.name }));
	33	+ const comp = f.summary.components;
30	34
31	35	return (
32		− <div className="space-y-14">
	36	+ <div className="space-y-16">
33	37	<HeroForecast f={f} meta={meta} />
34	38
	39	+ {comp && (
	40	+ <section>
	41	+ <SectionHeader num="02" eyebrow="Au-delà des sondages" title="Marchés, presse, attention, terrain" description="Depuis le modèle 2.0, quatre familles de signaux indépendants corrigent la moyenne des sondages, chacune avec un poids borné et publié. La vue « sondages seuls » reste toujours visible." action={<Link href="/signaux" className="link text-[13.5px]">Tous les signaux →</Link>} />
	42	+ <SignalsOverview comp={comp} />
	43	+ <Card className="mt-4"><ComponentsCompare f={f} /></Card>
	44	+ </section>
	45	+ )}
	46	+
35	47	<section>
36		− <SectionHeader eyebrow="02 · Sièges" title="Prévision des sièges" description="Médiane, intervalles de crédibilité et probabilités issus des simulations Monte Carlo. Le seuil de 64 sièges est dérivé des 127 circonscriptions officielles." action={<Link href="/prevision" className="link text-[13.5px]">Prévision complète →</Link>} />
	48	+ <SectionHeader num="03" eyebrow="Sièges" title="Prévision des sièges" description={`Médiane, intervalles de crédibilité et probabilités issus des simulations pondérées. Le seuil de ${meta.majority} sièges est dérivé des ${meta.seatsTotal} circonscriptions officielles.`} action={<Link href="/prevision" className="link text-[13.5px]">Prévision complète →</Link>} />
37	49	<Card><SeatMeter seats={seats} total={meta.seatsTotal} majority={meta.majority} className="mb-6" title="Sièges médians projetés" /><SeatProjectionTable f={f} /></Card>
38	50	</section>
39	51
40	52	<section className="grid lg:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
41	53	<div>
42		− <SectionHeader eyebrow="03 · Vote populaire" title="Intentions de vote projetées" description="Vote au jour du scrutin (moyenne QC26 corrigée des effets maison, projetée au 5 octobre)." />
	54	+ <SectionHeader num="04" eyebrow="Vote populaire" title="Intentions de vote projetées" description="Vote au jour du scrutin (moyenne QC26 corrigée des effets maison, projetée au 5 octobre)." />
43	55	<Card><PopularVoteTable f={f} /></Card>
44	56	</div>
45	57	<div>
46		− <SectionHeader eyebrow="04 · Majorité" title="Probabilité de majorité" description="Part des simulations où le parti obtient au moins 64 sièges." />
	58	+ <SectionHeader num="05" eyebrow="Majorité" title="Probabilité de majorité" description={`Part des simulations où le parti obtient au moins ${meta.majority} sièges.`} />
47	59	<Card><MajorityPanel f={f} /></Card>
48	60	</div>
49	61	</section>
50	62
51	63	<section>
52		− <SectionHeader eyebrow="05 · Carte" title="Carte électorale" description="Favori par circonscription ; l'intensité de la couleur traduit la certitude, jamais un résultat acquis." action={<Link href="/carte" className="link text-[13.5px]">Explorer la carte →</Link>} />
	64	+ <SectionHeader num="06" eyebrow="Carte" title="Carte électorale" description="Favori par circonscription ; l'intensité de la couleur traduit la certitude, jamais un résultat acquis." action={<Link href="/carte" className="link text-[13.5px]">Explorer la carte →</Link>} />
53	65	<Card pad={false} className="p-3 md:p-4"><MapSection height={520} compact /></Card>
54	66	</section>
55	67
56	68	<section>
57		− <SectionHeader eyebrow="06 · Sondages" title="Derniers sondages" description={`${f.pollCount} sondages depuis novembre 2022 alimentent la moyenne QC26.`} action={<Link href="/sondages" className="link text-[13.5px]">Tous les sondages →</Link>} />
	69	+ <SectionHeader num="07" eyebrow="Sondages" title="Tendance et derniers sondages" description={`${f.pollCount} sondages depuis novembre 2022 alimentent la moyenne QC26.`} action={<Link href="/sondages" className="link text-[13.5px]">Tous les sondages →</Link>} />
58	70	<Card pad={false}>
59	71	<div className="p-4 md:p-5 border-b border-border">
60		− {f.trend && <TrendChart trend={f.trend} polls={pollPts} from={from.toISOString().slice(0, 10)} height={240} />}
	72	+ {f.trend && <TrendChartInteractive trend={f.trend} polls={pollPts} from={from.toISOString().slice(0, 10)} height={260} markers={[{ date: meta.campaignStart, label: "Déclenchement" }]} />}
61	73	<Legend ids={PARTY_IDS} className="mt-2" />
62	74	</div>
63	75	{polls && <LatestPolls polls={polls.polls} limit={6} compact />}
64	76	</Card>
65	77	</section>
66	78
	79	+ {sig && sig.markets.asOf && (
	80	+ <section className="grid lg:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
	81	+ <div>
	82	+ <SectionHeader num="08" eyebrow="Marchés de prédiction" title="Ce que parient les marchés" description="Polymarket, prix « Oui » renormalisés. Comparés à la vue « sondages seuls » et à l'ensemble ci-dessus." action={<Link href="/signaux#marches" className="link text-[13.5px]">Détail →</Link>} />
	83	+ <Card><MarketsPanel m={sig.markets} comp={comp} compact /></Card>
	84	+ </div>
	85	+ <div>
	86	+ <SectionHeader num="09" eyebrow="Presse" title="Le ton de la couverture" description={`${sig.media.articles} titres des ${sig.media.window} derniers jours, classés par parti et par ton.`} action={<Link href="/signaux#presse" className="link text-[13.5px]">Revue de presse →</Link>} />
	87	+ <Card><MediaPanel m={sig.media} compact /></Card>
	88	+ </div>
	89	+ </section>
	90	+ )}
	91	+
67	92	<section>
68		− <SectionHeader eyebrow="07 · Qu'est-ce qui a changé ?" title="Depuis le dernier recalcul" description="Différences entre les deux derniers runs publiés et les entrées qui les expliquent." />
	93	+ <SectionHeader num="10" eyebrow="Qu'est-ce qui a changé ?" title="Depuis le dernier recalcul" description="Différences entre les deux derniers runs publiés et les entrées qui les expliquent." />
69	94	<Card><WhatChanged f={f} ridingNames={ridingNames} /></Card>
70	95	</section>
71	96
72	97	{ridings && (
73	98	<section>
74		− <SectionHeader eyebrow="08 · À surveiller" title="Circonscriptions les plus disputées" description="Classées par incertitude (1 − probabilité du favori)." action={<Link href="/circonscriptions?tri=serre" className="link text-[13.5px]">Toutes les circonscriptions →</Link>} />
	99	+ <SectionHeader num="11" eyebrow="À surveiller" title="Circonscriptions les plus disputées" description="Classées par incertitude (1 − probabilité du favori)." action={<Link href="/circonscriptions?tri=serre" className="link text-[13.5px]">Toutes les circonscriptions →</Link>} />
75	100	<Battlegrounds ridings={ridings.ridings} codes={f.summary.battlegrounds} limit={10} />
76	101	</section>
77	102	)}
78	103
79	104	{regions && (
80	105	<section>
81		− <SectionHeader eyebrow="09 · Régions" title="Prévision régionale" description="Favoris et vote projeté par région, comparés au résultat 2022 transposé sur la carte 2026." />
	106	+ <SectionHeader num="12" eyebrow="Régions" title="Prévision régionale" description="Favoris et vote projeté par région, comparés au résultat 2022 transposé sur la carte 2026." />
82	107	<RegionalGrid regions={regions.regions} />
83	108	</section>
84	109	)}
85	110
86	111	<section className="grid lg:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
87		− <div className="card card-lg p-6 md:p-8 bg-brand text-white flex flex-col">
88		− <div className="eyebrow !text-[rgba(255,255,255,.6)]">10 · Boussole électorale</div>
89		− <h2 className="text-[26px] font-bold tracking-tight mt-2 leading-tight">Quel parti correspond le mieux à vos positions ?</h2>
90		− <p className="text-[14px] text-[rgba(255,255,255,.75)] mt-2 leading-relaxed">48 énoncés sur 6 axes. Chaque position de parti est tirée d'un document officiel, avec page et citation : vous pourrez voir pourquoi.</p>
91		− <Link href="/boussole" className="mt-auto pt-6 inline-flex items-center gap-2 self-start bg-white text-brand font-semibold rounded-[8px] px-4 py-2.5 text-[14px]">Commencer la boussole →</Link>
	112	+ <div className="card card-lg p-6 md:p-8 ink-panel flex flex-col">
	113	+ <div className="eyebrow" style={{ color: "color-mix(in srgb, var(--text-inverse) 60%, transparent)" }}>13 · Boussole électorale</div>
	114	+ <h2 className="display text-[30px] mt-3 leading-tight">Quel parti correspond le mieux à vos positions ?</h2>
	115	+ <p className="text-[14px] opacity-75 mt-3 leading-relaxed">48 énoncés sur 6 axes. Chaque position de parti est tirée d'un document officiel, avec page et citation : vous pourrez voir pourquoi.</p>
	116	+ <Link href="/boussole" className="mt-auto pt-6 btn self-start" style={{ background: "var(--text-inverse)", color: "var(--text)" }}>Commencer la boussole →</Link>
92	117	</div>
93	118	<div>
94		− <SectionHeader eyebrow="11 · Partis" title="Comparaison des partis" action={<Link href="/partis/comparateur" className="link text-[13.5px]">Comparateur →</Link>} />
	119	+ <SectionHeader num="14" eyebrow="Partis" title="Comparaison des partis" action={<Link href="/partis/comparateur" className="link text-[13.5px]">Comparateur →</Link>} />
95	120	<div className="grid grid-cols-1 gap-2">
96	121	{(parties?.parties ?? []).sort((a, b) => (b.forecast?.seatsMedian ?? 0) - (a.forecast?.seatsMedian ?? 0)).map((p) => (
97		− <Link key={p.id} href={`/partis/${p.id}`} className="card p-3 flex items-center gap-4 hover:shadow-md transition-shadow">
	122	+ <Link key={p.id} href={`/partis/${p.id}`} className="card card-hover p-3 flex items-center gap-4">
98	123	<PartyLogo id={p.id} height={22} className="w-[92px] justify-start" />
99	124	<div className="min-w-0 flex-1"><div className="font-semibold text-[14px] truncate">{p.officialName}</div><div className="text-[12px] text-ink-3 truncate">{p.leader} · {p.candidatesCount} candidatures · {p.proposals} propositions documentées</div></div>
100		− <div className="text-right num shrink-0"><div className="font-bold text-[18px]" style={{ color: partyColor(p.id) }}>{p.forecast?.seatsMedian ?? "—"}</div><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3">P(maj) {prob(p.forecast?.pMajority)}</div></div>
	125	+ <div className="text-right num shrink-0"><div className="figure text-[22px]" style={{ color: partyVar(p.id) }}>{p.forecast?.seatsMedian ?? "—"}</div><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3">P(maj) {prob(p.forecast?.pMajority)}</div></div>
101	126	</Link>
102	127	))}
103	128	</div>
		`@@ -106,11 +131,11 @@ export default async function Home() {`
106	131
107	132	<section className="card card-lg p-6 md:p-8 grid md:grid-cols-[1fr_auto] gap-6 items-center">
108	133	<div>
109		− <div className="eyebrow">12 · Méthodologie</div>
110		− <h2 className="text-[22px] font-bold tracking-tight mt-1">Comment QC26 calcule</h2>
111		− <p className="text-[14px] text-ink-2 mt-2 leading-relaxed max-w-2xl">Sondages pondérés et corrigés des effets maison → état latent du vote (filtre de Kalman) → swing proportionnel sur les résultats 2022 transposés → {int(f.nSimulations)} simulations à erreurs corrélées. Chaque run est versionné (modèle {f.modelVersion}, run #{f.id}{f.codeCommit ? `, commit ${f.codeCommit}` : ""}).</p>
	134	+ <div className="eyebrow">15 · Méthodologie</div>
	135	+ <h2 className="display text-[26px] mt-2">Comment QC26 calcule</h2>
	136	+ <p className="text-[14px] text-ink-2 mt-2 leading-relaxed max-w-2xl">Sondages pondérés et corrigés des effets maison → état latent du vote (filtre de Kalman) → prior fondamentaux et momentum bornés → swing proportionnel sur les résultats 2022 transposés → {int(f.nSimulations)} simulations à erreurs corrélées, repondérées vers les marchés. Chaque run est versionné (modèle {f.modelVersion}, run #{f.id}{f.codeCommit ? `, commit ${f.codeCommit}` : ""}).</p>
112	137	</div>
113		− <div className="flex gap-3"><Link href="/methodologie" className="inline-flex items-center rounded-[8px] bg-brand text-white px-4 py-2.5 text-[14px] font-semibold">Méthodologie</Link><Link href="/methodologie/changelog" className="inline-flex items-center rounded-[8px] border border-border px-4 py-2.5 text-[14px] font-semibold">Changelog</Link></div>
	138	+ <div className="flex gap-3"><Link href="/methodologie" className="btn btn-primary">Méthodologie</Link><Link href="/methodologie/changelog" className="btn btn-ghost">Changelog</Link></div>
114	139	</section>
115	140	</div>
116	141	);

modified web/src/app/partis/[id]/page.tsx +2 −2

		`@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ import { SeatDistribution } from "@/components/charts";`
6	6	import { PartyLogo } from "@/components/party";
7	7	import { Badge, Card, Empty, KV, SectionHeader } from "@/components/ui";
8	8	import { dateFr, int, pct, prob } from "@/lib/format";
9		−import { PARTIES, partyColor, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
	9	+import { PARTIES, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
10	10
11	11	export const revalidate = 120;
12	12	export function generateStaticParams() { return PARTIES.map((p) => ({ id: p.id })); }
		`@@ -42,7 +42,7 @@ export default async function Page({ params }: { params: Promise<{ id: string }>`
42	42	</div>
43	43	)}
44	44	</div>
45		− {f?.seatDistribution && <div className="mt-6"><SeatDistribution dist={f.seatDistribution} color={d.color} majority={meta.majority} median={f.seatsMedian} lo80={f.seats80[0]} hi80={f.seats80[1]} lo95={f.seats95[0]} hi95={f.seats95[1]} height={90} total={meta.seatsTotal} /></div>}
	45	+ {f?.seatDistribution && <div className="mt-6 max-w-[760px]"><SeatDistribution dist={f.seatDistribution} color={d.color} majority={meta.majority} median={f.seatsMedian} lo80={f.seats80[0]} hi80={f.seats80[1]} lo95={f.seats95[0]} hi95={f.seats95[1]} height={90} total={meta.seatsTotal} /></div>}
46	46	</div>
47	47
48	48	<section className="grid lg:grid-cols-3 gap-6">

modified web/src/app/partis/comparateur/page.tsx +3 −3

		`@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ import Link from "next/link";`
3	3	import { apiSafe, type Meta } from "@/lib/api";
4	4	import { PartyLogo } from "@/components/party";
5	5	import { Card, Empty } from "@/components/ui";
6		−import { PARTY_IDS, partyColor, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
	6	+import { PARTY_IDS, partyVar, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
7	7
8	8	export const metadata: Metadata = { title: "Comparateur des partis — matrice enjeux × partis", description: "Ce que proposent la CAQ, le PQ, le PLQ, QS et le PCQ sur chaque enjeu, d'après leurs documents officiels ; chaque cellule renvoie à la source." };
9	9	export const revalidate = 300;
		`@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ export default async function Page() {`
15	15	if (!m \|\| !meta) return <Empty title="Comparateur indisponible" />;
16	16	return (
17	17	<div className="space-y-6">
18		− <div><div className="eyebrow">Policy Matrix · documents officiels</div><h1 className="display text-[36px] md:text-[48px] mt-2">Comparateur des partis</h1><p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 max-w-2xl text-[15px] leading-relaxed">Une cellule = la proposition la mieux documentée du parti sur l'enjeu (cliquez pour la source, la page et la citation). Une case vide signifie qu'aucun document officiel ingéré n'aborde le sujet, pas que le parti n'a pas de position.</p></div>
	18	+ <div><div className="eyebrow eyebrow-accent">Policy Matrix · documents officiels</div><h1 className="display text-[40px] md:text-[56px] mt-3">Comparateur des partis</h1><p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 max-w-2xl text-[15px] leading-relaxed">Une cellule = la proposition la mieux documentée du parti sur l'enjeu (cliquez pour la source, la page et la citation). Une case vide signifie qu'aucun document officiel ingéré n'aborde le sujet, pas que le parti n'a pas de position.</p></div>
19	19	{m.topics.length === 0 ? <Empty title="Extraction en cours">Les documents officiels des partis sont en cours d'analyse ; la matrice se remplit au fil des heures.</Empty> : (
20	20	<Card pad={false} className="overflow-x-auto">
21	21	<table className="data-table min-w-[900px]">
		`@@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ export default async function Page() {`
25	25	<tr key={t.id}>
26	26	<td className="font-semibold align-top"><Link href={`/enjeux/${t.id}`} className="hover:underline">{t.label}</Link></td>
27	27	{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => { const cell = m.top[`${t.id}:${id}`]; return (
28		− <td key={id} className="align-top text-[12.5px] leading-snug" style={{ borderLeft: `3px solid ${cell ? partyColor(id) : "transparent"}` }}>
	28	+ <td key={id} className="align-top text-[12.5px] leading-snug" style={{ borderLeft: `3px solid ${cell ? partyVar(id) : "transparent"}` }}>
29	29	{cell ? <Link href={`/documents/${cell.documentId}#p${cell.id}`} className="hover:underline">{cell.proposal.length > 150 ? cell.proposal.slice(0, 150) + "…" : cell.proposal}<span className="text-ink-3"> {cell.page ? `· p. ${cell.page}` : ""} · {t.counts[id] ?? 0} prop.</span></Link> : <span className="text-ink-3">—</span>}
30	30	</td>); })}
31	31	</tr>

modified web/src/app/partis/page.tsx +3 −3

		`@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ import { apiSafe, type Party } from "@/lib/api";`
4	4	import { PartyLogo } from "@/components/party";
5	5	import { Empty } from "@/components/ui";
6	6	import { dateFr, int, pct, prob } from "@/lib/format";
7		−import { partyColor } from "@/lib/parties";
	7	+import { partyVar } from "@/lib/parties";
8	8
9	9	export const metadata: Metadata = { title: "Partis — chefs, candidatures, projections, documents", description: "Les cinq principaux partis de l'élection québécoise 2026 : chef·fe (registre DGEQ), candidatures officielles, sièges projetés, documents et propositions." };
10	10	export const revalidate = 120;
		`@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ export default async function Page() {`
15	15	return (
16	16	<div className="space-y-6">
17	17	<div className="flex items-end justify-between flex-wrap gap-3">
18		− <div><div className="eyebrow">Partis · registre officiel des partis autorisés (REPAQ)</div><h1 className="display text-[36px] md:text-[48px] mt-2">Party Explorer</h1></div>
	18	+ <div><div className="eyebrow eyebrow-accent">Partis · registre officiel des partis autorisés (REPAQ)</div><h1 className="display text-[40px] md:text-[56px] mt-3">Party Explorer</h1></div>
19	19	<Link href="/partis/comparateur" className="inline-flex items-center rounded-[8px] bg-brand text-white px-4 py-2.5 text-[14px] font-semibold">Comparateur des positions →</Link>
20	20	</div>
21	21	<div className="grid md:grid-cols-2 xl:grid-cols-3 gap-4">
		`@@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ export default async function Page() {`
25	25	<div className="font-bold text-[18px] mt-3 leading-tight">{p.officialName}</div>
26	26	<div className="text-[13px] text-ink-2 mt-1">{p.leader ? <>Chef·fe : <b className="text-ink">{p.leader}</b>{p.leaderSince ? <span className="text-ink-3"> · depuis {dateFr(p.leaderSince, { month: "long", year: "numeric" })}</span> : null}</> : "—"}</div>
27	27	<div className="grid grid-cols-3 gap-3 mt-4 text-center">
28		− <div className="surface-2 rounded-[8px] p-2.5"><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3">Sièges projetés</div><div className="num font-bold text-[22px]" style={{ color: partyColor(p.id) }}>{p.forecast?.seatsMedian ?? "—"}</div><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3 num">{p.forecast ? `${p.forecast.seats80[0]}–${p.forecast.seats80[1]}` : ""}</div></div>
	28	+ <div className="surface-2 rounded-[8px] p-2.5"><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3">Sièges projetés</div><div className="num font-bold text-[22px]" style={{ color: partyVar(p.id) }}>{p.forecast?.seatsMedian ?? "—"}</div><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3 num">{p.forecast ? `${p.forecast.seats80[0]}–${p.forecast.seats80[1]}` : ""}</div></div>
29	29	<div className="surface-2 rounded-[8px] p-2.5"><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3">Vote projeté</div><div className="num font-bold text-[22px]">{p.forecast ? pct(p.forecast.voteMean, 1, "") : "—"}<span className="text-[13px]"> %</span></div><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3 num">2022 : {pct(p.vote2022, 1)}</div></div>
30	30	<div className="surface-2 rounded-[8px] p-2.5"><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3">P(majorité)</div><div className="num font-bold text-[22px]">{prob(p.forecast?.pMajority)}</div><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3 num">2022 : {p.seats2022} sièges</div></div>
31	31	</div>

modified web/src/app/plus/page.tsx +3 −3

		`@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ import { Card } from "@/components/ui";`
5	5	export const metadata: Metadata = { title: "Plus", robots: { index: false } };
6	6
7	7	const GROUPS: [string, [string, string, string][]][] = [
8		− ["Données", [["/prevision", "Prévision", "Sièges, vote, probabilités, historique"], ["/sondages", "Sondages", "Moyenne QC26, Poll Inspector, effets maison"], ["/circonscriptions", "Circonscriptions", "127 fiches, recherche instantanée"], ["/live", "Soirée électorale", "Direct, forecast vs live, nowcast"], ["/replay", "Replay", "Rejouer la soirée"]]],
	8	+ ["Données", [["/prevision", "Prévision", "Sièges, vote, probabilités, historique"], ["/signaux", "Au-delà des sondages", "Marchés, presse, attention, fondamentaux, partielles"], ["/sondages", "Sondages", "Moyenne QC26, Poll Inspector, effets maison"], ["/circonscriptions", "Circonscriptions", "127 fiches, recherche instantanée"], ["/live", "Soirée électorale", "Direct, forecast vs live, nowcast"], ["/replay", "Replay", "Rejouer la soirée"]]],
9	9	["Partis", [["/partis", "Partis", "Chefs, candidatures, projections"], ["/partis/comparateur", "Comparateur", "Matrice enjeux × partis"], ["/enjeux", "Enjeux", "Propositions par sujet, recherche documentaire"], ["/documents", "Bibliothèque", "Documents officiels versionnés"]]],
10	10	["Transparence", [["/methodologie", "Méthodologie", "Comment QC26 calcule"], ["/methodologie/changelog", "Changelog", "Versions du modèle et runs"], ["/statut", "Statut des données", "Connecteurs, sources, travaux"], ["/live/model-vs-reality", "Modèle vs réalité", "Précision le soir du vote"]]],
11	11	];
		`@@ -13,8 +13,8 @@ const GROUPS: [string, [string, string, string][]][] = [`
13	13	export default function Page() {
14	14	return (
15	15	<div className="space-y-8">
16		− <h1 className="display text-[32px]">Plus</h1>
17		− {GROUPS.map(([g, items]) => (<section key={g}><div className="eyebrow mb-2">{g}</div><div className="grid gap-2">{items.map(([href, t, d]) => <Link key={href} href={href}><Card className="!p-3.5 hover:bg-surface-2"><div className="font-semibold text-[15px]">{t}</div><div className="text-[12.5px] text-ink-2">{d}</div></Card></Link>)}</div></section>))}
	16	+ <h1 className="display text-[36px]">Plus</h1>
	17	+ {GROUPS.map(([g, items]) => (<section key={g}><div className="eyebrow mb-2">{g}</div><div className="grid gap-2">{items.map(([href, t, d]) => <Link key={href} href={href}><Card className="!p-3.5 card-hover"><div className="font-semibold text-[15px]">{t}</div><div className="text-[12.5px] text-ink-2">{d}</div></Card></Link>)}</div></section>))}
18	18	</div>
19	19	);
20	20	}

modified web/src/app/prevision/page.tsx +58 −20

		`@@ -1,15 +1,17 @@`
1	1	import type { Metadata } from "next";
2	2	import Link from "next/link";
3	3	import { apiSafe, type Forecast, type Meta, type RidingListItem } from "@/lib/api";
4		−import { MajorityPanel, PopularVoteTable, SeatProjectionTable, WhatChanged } from "@/components/forecast-blocks";
5		−import { Legend, SeatDistribution, SeatMeter, TrendChart } from "@/components/charts";
	4	+import { ComponentsCompare, MajorityPanel, PopularVoteTable, SeatProjectionTable, WhatChanged } from "@/components/forecast-blocks";
	5	+import { Legend, SeatDistribution, SeatMeter, SeatWaffle } from "@/components/charts";
	6	+import { TrendChartInteractive } from "@/components/trend-chart";
	7	+import { SignalsOverview } from "@/components/signals";
6	8	import { PartyLogo } from "@/components/party";
7		−import { Badge, Card, Empty, KV, SectionHeader } from "@/components/ui";
	9	+import { Badge, Card, Empty, KV, PageTitle, SectionHeader } from "@/components/ui";
8	10	import { ForecastHistory } from "@/components/forecast-history";
9	11	import { dateFr, dateTimeFr, int, prob } from "@/lib/format";
10		−import { PARTY_IDS, partyColor, partyLabel, sortParties } from "@/lib/parties";
	12	+import { PARTY_IDS, partyLabel, partyVar, sortParties } from "@/lib/parties";
11	13
12		−export const metadata: Metadata = { title: "Prévision — sièges, vote populaire et probabilités", description: "Projection QC26 de l'élection québécoise 2026 : sièges par parti, intervalles, probabilité de majorité, historique du modèle." };
	14	+export const metadata: Metadata = { title: "Prévision — sièges, vote populaire et probabilités", description: "Projection QC26 de l'élection québécoise 2026 : sièges par parti, intervalles, probabilité de majorité, composantes (sondages, marchés, fondamentaux, momentum), historique du modèle." };
13	15	export const revalidate = 60;
14	16
15	17	export default async function Page() {
		`@@ -18,22 +20,57 @@ export default async function Page() {`
18	20	const seats = Object.fromEntries(Object.entries(f.parties).map(([k, v]) => [k, v.seatsMedian]));
19	21	const ridingNames = Object.fromEntries((ridings?.ridings ?? []).map((r) => [r.code, { name: r.name, slug: r.slug }]));
20	22	const rows = sortParties(f.parties, (v) => v.seatsMean);
	23	+ const comp = f.summary.components;
	24	+ const leader = f.summary.leader;
21	25	return (
22		− <div className="space-y-12">
23		− <div>
24		− <div className="eyebrow">Prévision · Modèle {f.modelVersion} · run #{f.id}</div>
25		− <h1 className="display text-[36px] md:text-[48px] mt-2">Prévision QC26</h1>
26		− <p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 max-w-2xl text-[15px] leading-relaxed">Projection probabiliste de l'Assemblée nationale au 5 octobre 2026, recalculée à chaque nouveau sondage. Données arrêtées au {dateFr(f.dataCutoff)} · {f.pollCount} sondages · {int(f.nSimulations)} simulations · mise à jour {dateTimeFr(f.completedAt)}.</p>
27		− </div>
28		− <Card><SeatMeter seats={seats} total={meta.seatsTotal} majority={meta.majority} className="mb-6" /><SeatProjectionTable f={f} /></Card>
	26	+ <div className="space-y-14">
	27	+ <PageTitle eyebrow={`Prévision · modèle ${f.modelVersion} · run #${f.id}`} title="Prévision QC26"
	28	+ lede={<>Projection probabiliste de l'Assemblée nationale au 5 octobre 2026, recalculée à chaque nouveau sondage et à chaque mise à jour des signaux. Données arrêtées au {dateFr(f.dataCutoff)} · {f.pollCount} sondages · {int(f.nSimulations)} simulations · mise à jour {dateTimeFr(f.completedAt)}.</>} />
	29	+
	30	+ <section className="grid lg:grid-cols-[1fr_1.2fr] gap-6 items-start">
	31	+ <Card className="card-lg">
	32	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-3">Assemblée nationale · médiane</div>
	33	+ <SeatWaffle seats={seats} total={meta.seatsTotal} majority={meta.majority} cols={16} />
	34	+ <div className="mt-4 grid grid-cols-3 gap-3 text-center">
	35	+ {rows.slice(0, 3).map(([id, v]) => (<div key={id} className="inset p-2.5"><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3">P(majorité)</div><div className="figure text-[24px]" style={{ color: partyVar(id) }}>{prob(v.pMajority)}</div><div className="text-[11px] font-semibold">{partyLabel(id)}</div></div>))}
	36	+ </div>
	37	+ </Card>
	38	+ <Card><SeatMeter seats={seats} total={meta.seatsTotal} majority={meta.majority} className="mb-6" /><SeatProjectionTable f={f} /></Card>
	39	+ </section>
	40	+
	41	+ {comp && (
	42	+ <section>
	43	+ <SectionHeader eyebrow="Composantes" title="Sondages seuls, marchés, ensemble" description="Le modèle 2.0 publie chaque composante. Les points creux sont la vue « sondages seuls » (v1) ; les losanges, les marchés de prédiction ; les points pleins, l'ensemble QC26." action={<Link href="/signaux" className="link text-[13.5px]">Détail des signaux →</Link>} />
	44	+ <SignalsOverview comp={comp} className="mb-4" />
	45	+ <Card><ComponentsCompare f={f} /></Card>
	46	+ <div className="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-3 mt-4">
	47	+ {(["pollsOnly", "modelNoMarkets"] as const).map((k) => {
	48	+ const c = comp[k];
	49	+ return (
	50	+ <Card key={k}>
	51	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-2">{k === "pollsOnly" ? "Sondages seuls" : "Modèle sans marchés"}</div>
	52	+ <div className="space-y-1.5 text-[13px]">{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <div key={id} className="flex items-center justify-between"><span className="font-semibold inline-flex items-center gap-1.5"><span className="w-2 h-2 rounded-full" style={{ background: partyVar(id) }} />{partyLabel(id)}</span><span className="mono"><b>{c.parties[id]?.seats}</b> <span className="text-ink-3">{c.parties[id]?.seats80?.join("–")}</span> · {prob(c.parties[id]?.p_majority)}</span></div>)}</div>
	53	+ <div className="text-[11.5px] text-ink-3 mt-2">minoritaire {prob(c.p_minority)}</div>
	54	+ </Card>
	55	+ );
	56	+ })}
	57	+ <Card>
	58	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-2">Ensemble QC26</div>
	59	+ <div className="space-y-1.5 text-[13px]">{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <div key={id} className="flex items-center justify-between"><span className="font-semibold inline-flex items-center gap-1.5"><span className="w-2 h-2 rounded-full" style={{ background: partyVar(id) }} />{partyLabel(id)}</span><span className="mono"><b>{f.parties[id]?.seatsMedian}</b> <span className="text-ink-3">{f.parties[id]?.seats80.join("–")}</span> · {prob(f.parties[id]?.pMajority)}</span></div>)}</div>
	60	+ <div className="text-[11.5px] text-ink-3 mt-2">minoritaire {prob(f.summary.p_minority)} · ESS {int(comp.ess)} / {int(comp.nSimulations)}</div>
	61	+ </Card>
	62	+ </div>
	63	+ </section>
	64	+ )}
	65	+
29	66	<section>
30		− <SectionHeader eyebrow="Distributions" title="Incertitude sur les sièges" description="Histogrammes des simulations. La ligne pointillée marque 64 sièges ; les bandes, les intervalles 80 % et 95 %." />
	67	+ <SectionHeader eyebrow="Distributions" title="Incertitude sur les sièges" description={`Histogrammes pondérés des simulations. La ligne marque ${meta.majority} sièges ; les bandes, les intervalles 80 % et 95 %.`} />
31	68	<div className="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
32	69	{rows.map(([id, v]) => (
33	70	<Card key={id}>
34		− <div className="flex items-center justify-between mb-2"><span className="inline-flex items-center gap-2"><PartyLogo id={id} height={18} /><b>{partyLabel(id)}</b></span><span className="num text-[13px] text-ink-2">médiane <b className="text-ink">{v.seatsMedian}</b> · 80 % {v.seats80[0]}–{v.seats80[1]} · 95 % {v.seats95[0]}–{v.seats95[1]}</span></div>
35		− {v.seatDistribution && <SeatDistribution dist={v.seatDistribution} color={partyColor(id)} majority={meta.majority} median={v.seatsMedian} lo80={v.seats80[0]} hi80={v.seats80[1]} lo95={v.seats95[0]} hi95={v.seats95[1]} height={110} total={meta.seatsTotal} />}
36		− <div className="grid grid-cols-3 gap-2 mt-2 text-center text-[12.5px]"><div className="surface-2 rounded-[6px] p-2"><div className="text-ink-3">Majorité</div><b className="num">{prob(v.pMajority)}</b></div><div className="surface-2 rounded-[6px] p-2"><div className="text-ink-3">Pluralité</div><b className="num">{prob(v.pMostSeats)}</b></div><div className="surface-2 rounded-[6px] p-2"><div className="text-ink-3">Vote</div><b className="num">{v.voteMean.toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")} % ± {v.voteSd.toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")}</b></div></div>
	71	+ <div className="flex items-center justify-between mb-2"><span className="inline-flex items-center gap-2"><PartyLogo id={id} height={18} /><b>{partyLabel(id)}</b></span><span className="num text-[13px] text-ink-2">médiane <b className="text-ink mono">{v.seatsMedian}</b> · 80 % <span className="mono">{v.seats80[0]}–{v.seats80[1]}</span> · 95 % <span className="mono">{v.seats95[0]}–{v.seats95[1]}</span></span></div>
	72	+ {v.seatDistribution && <SeatDistribution dist={v.seatDistribution} color={partyVar(id)} majority={meta.majority} median={v.seatsMedian} lo80={v.seats80[0]} hi80={v.seats80[1]} lo95={v.seats95[0]} hi95={v.seats95[1]} height={110} total={meta.seatsTotal} />}
	73	+ <div className="grid grid-cols-3 gap-2 mt-2 text-center text-[12.5px]"><div className="inset p-2"><div className="text-ink-3">Majorité</div><b className="num">{prob(v.pMajority)}</b></div><div className="inset p-2"><div className="text-ink-3">Pluralité</div><b className="num">{prob(v.pMostSeats)}</b></div><div className="inset p-2"><div className="text-ink-3">Vote</div><b className="num">{v.voteMean.toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")} % ± {v.voteSd.toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")}</b></div></div>
37	74	</Card>
38	75	))}
39	76	</div>
		`@@ -43,8 +80,8 @@ export default async function Page() {`
43	80	<div><SectionHeader eyebrow="Majorité" title="Probabilités" /><Card><MajorityPanel f={f} /></Card></div>
44	81	</section>
45	82	<section>
46		− <SectionHeader eyebrow="Tendance" title="État latent du vote depuis 2022" description="Moyenne QC26 (filtre de Kalman, effets maison corrigés) avec bande à 80 %. Les traits à gauche marquent le résultat de 2022." />
47		− <Card>{f.trend && <TrendChart trend={f.trend} height={320} election2022={{ caq: 40.98, plq: 14.37, qs: 15.43, pq: 14.61, pcq: 12.91 }} markers={[{ date: meta.campaignStart, label: "Déclenchement" }]} />}<Legend ids={PARTY_IDS} className="mt-2" /></Card>
	83	+ <SectionHeader eyebrow="Tendance" title="État latent du vote depuis 2022" description="Moyenne QC26 (filtre de Kalman, effets maison corrigés) avec bande à 80 %. Les traits à gauche marquent le résultat de 2022. Survolez pour lire une date." />
	84	+ <Card>{f.trend && <TrendChartInteractive trend={f.trend} height={320} election2022={{ caq: 40.98, plq: 14.37, qs: 15.43, pq: 14.61, pcq: 12.91 }} markers={[{ date: meta.campaignStart, label: "Déclenchement" }]} />}<Legend ids={PARTY_IDS} className="mt-2" /></Card>
48	85	</section>
49	86	<section>
50	87	<SectionHeader eyebrow="Historique" title="Revoir QC26 à n'importe quelle date" description="Chaque run publié est conservé avec ses paramètres. Déplacez le curseur pour revoir la projection d'un jour donné." />
		`@@ -57,14 +94,15 @@ export default async function Page() {`
57	94	<section className="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-6">
58	95	<Card>
59	96	<div className="eyebrow mb-3">Fiche du run</div>
60		− <KV items={[["Run", `#${f.id}`], ["Modèle", f.modelVersion], ["Déclencheur", f.trigger ?? "—"], ["Données arrêtées", dateFr(f.dataCutoff)], ["Terminé", dateTimeFr(f.completedAt)], ["Sondages", String(f.pollCount)], ["Simulations", int(f.nSimulations)], ["Graine", String(f.seed)], ["Commit", f.codeCommit ?? "—"]]} />
	97	+ <KV items={[["Run", `#${f.id}`], ["Modèle", f.modelVersion], ["Déclencheur", f.trigger ?? "—"], ["Données arrêtées", dateFr(f.dataCutoff)], ["Terminé", dateTimeFr(f.completedAt)], ["Sondages", String(f.pollCount)], ["Simulations", int(f.nSimulations)], ["ESS (repondération)", comp ? int(comp.ess) : "—"], ["Graine", String(f.seed)], ["Commit", f.codeCommit ?? "—"]]} />
61	98	</Card>
62	99	<Card>
63	100	<div className="eyebrow mb-3">Lire la prévision</div>
64	101	<ul className="text-[13.5px] text-ink-2 space-y-2 leading-relaxed list-disc pl-4">
65	102	<li>Une projection n'est pas une prédiction : un parti à 70 % de chances de majorité perd cette majorité dans 3 simulations sur 10.</li>
66	103	<li>Les intervalles 80 % couvrent le résultat 8 fois sur 10 si le modèle est bien calibré ; les erreurs des sondages sont corrélées et c'est intégré (σ industrie ≈ 2,2 pt).</li>
67		− <li>Chaque chiffre est audité : <Link href="/sondages" className="link">sondages</Link>, <Link href="/methodologie" className="link">méthodologie</Link>, <Link href="/methodologie/changelog" className="link">changelog</Link>.</li>
	104	+ <li>L'ensemble QC26 ({partyLabel(leader)} favori) tempère les sondages par les marchés, les fondamentaux et le momentum ; la vue « sondages seuls » reste publiée ci-dessus pour comparaison.</li>
	105	+ <li>Chaque chiffre est audité : <Link href="/sondages" className="link">sondages</Link>, <Link href="/signaux" className="link">signaux</Link>, <Link href="/methodologie" className="link">méthodologie</Link>, <Link href="/methodologie/changelog" className="link">changelog</Link>.</li>
68	106	</ul>
69	107	<div className="mt-3"><Badge tone="accent">Projection QC26</Badge></div>
70	108	</Card>

modified web/src/app/replay/page.tsx +1 −1

		`@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ export const revalidate = 0;`
7	7	export default function Page() {
8	8	return (
9	9	<div className="space-y-6">
10		− <div><div className="eyebrow">Election Replay</div><h1 className="display text-[36px] md:text-[48px] mt-2">Rejouer la soirée</h1><p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 max-w-2xl text-[15px]">Chaque snapshot officiel reçu le soir du vote est conservé. Déplacez le curseur : la carte, les sièges et le nowcast reviennent à l'état exact de ce moment.</p></div>
	10	+ <div><div className="eyebrow eyebrow-accent">Election Replay</div><h1 className="display text-[40px] md:text-[56px] mt-3">Rejouer la soirée</h1><p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 max-w-2xl text-[15px]">Chaque snapshot officiel reçu le soir du vote est conservé. Déplacez le curseur : la carte, les sièges et le nowcast reviennent à l'état exact de ce moment.</p></div>
11	11	<Replay />
12	12	</div>
13	13	);

added web/src/app/signaux/page.tsx +69 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,69 @@`
	1	+import type { Metadata } from "next";
	2	+import Link from "next/link";
	3	+import { apiSafe, type Forecast, type Meta, type SignalsPayload } from "@/lib/api";
	4	+import { AttentionPanel, ByElectionsPanel, FundamentalsPanel, MarketsPanel, MediaPanel, MomentumPanel, SignalsOverview } from "@/components/signals";
	5	+import { ComponentsCompare } from "@/components/forecast-blocks";
	6	+import { Card, Empty, PageTitle, SectionHeader } from "@/components/ui";
	7	+import { dateTimeFr } from "@/lib/format";
	8	+
	9	+export const metadata: Metadata = { title: "Au-delà des sondages — marchés, presse, attention, fondamentaux, partielles", description: "Les signaux alternatifs du modèle QC26 : marchés de prédiction Polymarket, revue de presse classée, attention Wikipédia, satisfaction et leadership, élections partielles depuis 2022 — et leur poids exact dans la prévision." };
	10	+export const revalidate = 120;
	11	+
	12	+export default async function Page() {
	13	+ const [sig, f, meta] = await Promise.all([apiSafe<SignalsPayload>("/api/signals"), apiSafe<Forecast>("/api/forecast/latest"), apiSafe<Meta>("/api/meta")]);
	14	+ if (!sig \|\| !f \|\| !meta) return <Empty title="Signaux indisponibles" />;
	15	+ const comp = f.summary.components ?? sig.components;
	16	+ return (
	17	+ <div className="space-y-14">
	18	+ <PageTitle eyebrow="Au-delà des sondages · modèle 2.0" title={<>Ce que disent les marchés, la presse, l'attention et le terrain.</>}
	19	+ lede={<>Depuis la version 2.0, QC26 combine les sondages à quatre familles de signaux indépendants. Chacun est archivé avec sa provenance, publié séparément et pesé de façon explicite : cette page montre les données brutes <i>et</i> l'effet exact de chaque composante sur la prévision du {dateTimeFr(f.completedAt)}.</>} />
	20	+
	21	+ {comp && (
	22	+ <section>
	23	+ <SectionHeader num="01" eyebrow="Composantes" title="Cinq entrées, une prévision" description="Le point de départ reste la moyenne des sondages. Les autres signaux la corrigent à la marge, chacun avec un poids borné et documenté." />
	24	+ <SignalsOverview comp={comp} />
	25	+ <Card className="mt-4"><ComponentsCompare f={f} /></Card>
	26	+ </section>
	27	+ )}
	28	+
	29	+ <section id="marches" className="scroll-mt-24">
	30	+ <SectionHeader num="02" eyebrow="Marchés de prédiction" title="Polymarket" description="Des participants misent de l'argent réel sur le vainqueur, la majorité et les tranches de sièges. Le prix « Oui » est une probabilité implicite. QC26 repondère ses simulations vers 70 % modèle + 30 % marché, sans jamais casser la cohérence sièges ↔ circonscriptions." />
	31	+ <Card><MarketsPanel m={sig.markets} comp={comp} /></Card>
	32	+ </section>
	33	+
	34	+ <section id="fondamentaux" className="scroll-mt-24">
	35	+ <SectionHeader num="03" eyebrow="Fondamentaux" title="Satisfaction, leadership, souveraineté" description="Les rapports des firmes contiennent bien plus que des intentions de vote. QC26 en extrait les questions structurantes, page citée, et en tire un prior sur la part du gouvernement sortant." />
	36	+ <Card><FundamentalsPanel f={sig.fundamentals} comp={comp} /></Card>
	37	+ </section>
	38	+
	39	+ <section id="momentum" className="scroll-mt-24">
	40	+ <SectionHeader num="04" eyebrow="Momentum" title="Chef, attention, ton médiatique" description="Trois indicateurs de dynamique convertis en un déplacement borné (± 1 pt, somme nulle) de la moyenne du vote au jour du scrutin." />
	41	+ {comp && <Card><MomentumPanel comp={comp} /></Card>}
	42	+ </section>
	43	+
	44	+ <section id="presse" className="scroll-mt-24">
	45	+ <SectionHeader num="05" eyebrow="Presse" title="Revue de presse classée" description="Titres des médias québécois des dernières 48 h par parti (Google Actualités), classés par un modèle de langage : partis concernés, ton −1…+1, sujet. Chaque titre reste consultable ; le ton n'entre que dans le momentum." />
	46	+ <Card><MediaPanel m={sig.media} /></Card>
	47	+ </section>
	48	+
	49	+ <section id="attention" className="scroll-mt-24">
	50	+ <SectionHeader num="06" eyebrow="Attention publique" title="Pages vues Wikipédia" description="Combien de personnes consultent la page d'un parti ou de sa cheffe ou son chef ? Un indicateur de saillance, pas d'appui : il n'entre que par sa variation (7 j vs 28 j), avec un coefficient très faible." />
	51	+ <Card><AttentionPanel a={sig.attention} /></Card>
	52	+ </section>
	53	+
	54	+ <section id="partielles" className="scroll-mt-24">
	55	+ <SectionHeader num="07" eyebrow="Terrain" title="Élections partielles depuis 2022" description="Cinq scrutins réels, aux limites de 2022, comparés au résultat général précédent. Le modèle en retient l'excès de swing local, net du swing national du jour, pour la circonscription concernée." />
	56	+ <Card><ByElectionsPanel b={sig.byElections} comp={comp} /></Card>
	57	+ </section>
	58	+
	59	+ <section className="card card-lg p-6 md:p-8 grid md:grid-cols-[1fr_auto] gap-6 items-center">
	60	+ <div>
	61	+ <div className="eyebrow">Lire ces signaux</div>
	62	+ <h2 className="display text-[24px] mt-2">Des indices, pas des verdicts</h2>
	63	+ <p className="text-[14px] text-ink-2 mt-2 leading-relaxed max-w-2xl">Aucun de ces signaux ne remplace un sondage. Les marchés peuvent être minces, la presse suit l'actualité plutôt que l'opinion, l'attention mesure la curiosité, les partielles ont une participation faible. C'est pourquoi chaque poids est petit, borné, publié, et pourquoi la vue « sondages seuls » reste toujours affichée à côté de l'ensemble.</p>
	64	+ </div>
	65	+ <div className="flex gap-3"><Link href="/methodologie#signaux" className="btn btn-primary">Méthodologie</Link><Link href="/prevision" className="btn btn-ghost">Prévision</Link></div>
	66	+ </section>
	67	+ </div>
	68	+ );
	69	+}

modified web/src/app/sitemap.ts +1 −1

		`@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ import { PARTIES } from "@/lib/parties";`
4	4
5	5	export default async function sitemap(): Promise<MetadataRoute.Sitemap> {
6	6	const now = new Date();
7		− const statics = ["", "/prevision", "/sondages", "/carte", "/circonscriptions", "/boussole", "/partis", "/partis/comparateur", "/enjeux", "/documents", "/methodologie", "/methodologie/changelog", "/live", "/statut"].map((p) => ({ url: `${SITE_URL}${p}`, lastModified: now, changeFrequency: "hourly" as const, priority: p === "" ? 1 : 0.7 }));
	7	+ const statics = ["", "/prevision", "/signaux", "/sondages", "/carte", "/circonscriptions", "/boussole", "/partis", "/partis/comparateur", "/enjeux", "/documents", "/methodologie", "/methodologie/changelog", "/live", "/statut"].map((p) => ({ url: `${SITE_URL}${p}`, lastModified: now, changeFrequency: "hourly" as const, priority: p === "" ? 1 : 0.7 }));
8	8	const ridings = await apiSafe<{ ridings: RidingListItem[] }>("/api/ridings", { revalidate: 3600 });
9	9	const r = (ridings?.ridings ?? []).map((x) => ({ url: `${SITE_URL}/circonscription/${x.slug}`, lastModified: now, changeFrequency: "daily" as const, priority: 0.6 }));
10	10	const p = PARTIES.map((x) => ({ url: `${SITE_URL}/partis/${x.id}`, lastModified: now, changeFrequency: "daily" as const, priority: 0.6 }));

modified web/src/app/sondages/[id]/page.tsx +5 −5

		`@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ import { notFound } from "next/navigation";`
4	4	import { apiSafe, type Poll } from "@/lib/api";
5	5	import { PartyBadge } from "@/components/party";
6	6	import { Badge, Card, ConfidenceBadge, KV, SectionHeader, SourceBadge } from "@/components/ui";
7		−import { PARTY_IDS, partyColor, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
	7	+import { PARTY_IDS, partyVar, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
8	8	import { dateFr, dateTimeFr, delta, int, modeLabel } from "@/lib/format";
9	9
10	10	export const revalidate = 120;
		`@@ -36,8 +36,8 @@ export default async function Page({ params }: { params: Promise<{ id: string }>`
36	36	<div className="space-y-2.5">
37	37	{order.map((pid) => (
38	38	<div key={pid} className="grid grid-cols-[52px_1fr_60px] items-center gap-3">
39		− <span className="font-semibold num" style={{ color: partyColor(pid) }}>{partyLabel(pid)}</span>
40		− <div className="h-[18px] bg-surface-3 rounded-[4px] overflow-hidden"><div className="h-full" style={{ width: `${((p.results[pid] ?? 0) / 50) * 100}%`, background: partyColor(pid) }} /></div>
	39	+ <span className="font-semibold num" style={{ color: partyVar(pid) }}>{partyLabel(pid)}</span>
	40	+ <div className="h-[18px] bg-surface-3 rounded-[4px] overflow-hidden"><div className="h-full" style={{ width: `${((p.results[pid] ?? 0) / 50) * 100}%`, background: partyVar(pid) }} /></div>
41	41	<span className="num font-bold text-[17px] text-right">{p.results[pid] !== undefined ? p.results[pid].toFixed(1).replace(".", ",") : "—"}</span>
42	42	</div>
43	43	))}
		`@@ -47,7 +47,7 @@ export default async function Page({ params }: { params: Promise<{ id: string }>`
47	47	{p.weight?.impact && (
48	48	<div className="mt-5 pt-4 border-t border-border">
49	49	<div className="eyebrow mb-2">Impact sur QC26</div>
50		− <div className="grid grid-cols-5 gap-2">{PARTY_IDS.map((pid) => <div key={pid} className="surface-2 rounded-[6px] p-2 text-center"><div className="text-[11px] font-semibold" style={{ color: partyColor(pid) }}>{partyLabel(pid)}</div><div className={"num font-bold " + ((p.weight!.impact![pid] ?? 0) > 0 ? "text-ok" : (p.weight!.impact![pid] ?? 0) < 0 ? "text-live" : "text-ink-3")}>{delta(p.weight!.impact![pid], 1)}</div></div>)}</div>
	50	+ <div className="grid grid-cols-5 gap-2">{PARTY_IDS.map((pid) => <div key={pid} className="surface-2 rounded-[6px] p-2 text-center"><div className="text-[11px] font-semibold" style={{ color: partyVar(pid) }}>{partyLabel(pid)}</div><div className={"num font-bold " + ((p.weight!.impact![pid] ?? 0) > 0 ? "text-ok" : (p.weight!.impact![pid] ?? 0) < 0 ? "text-live" : "text-ink-3")}>{delta(p.weight!.impact![pid], 1)}</div></div>)}</div>
51	51	<div className="text-[12px] text-ink-3 mt-2">Variation de la moyenne QC26 du jour attribuable à ce sondage (recalcul sans lui). Poids dans le run : {p.weight.weight.toFixed(3)} (récence {p.weight.recency.toFixed(2)} × échantillon {p.weight.sample.toFixed(2)}).</div>
52	52	</div>
53	53	)}
		`@@ -70,7 +70,7 @@ export default async function Page({ params }: { params: Promise<{ id: string }>`
70	70	<div className="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-4">
71	71	{Object.entries(subs).map(([dim, segs]) => (
72	72	<Card key={dim} pad={false} className="overflow-x-auto">
73		− <table className="data-table"><thead><tr><th>{dimLabel[dim] ?? dim}</th><th className="r">n</th>{PARTY_IDS.map((pid) => <th key={pid} className="r" style={{ color: partyColor(pid) }}>{partyLabel(pid)}</th>)}<th className="r">p.</th></tr></thead>
	73	+ <table className="data-table"><thead><tr><th>{dimLabel[dim] ?? dim}</th><th className="r">n</th>{PARTY_IDS.map((pid) => <th key={pid} className="r" style={{ color: partyVar(pid) }}>{partyLabel(pid)}</th>)}<th className="r">p.</th></tr></thead>
74	74	<tbody>{Object.entries(segs).map(([seg, vals]) => (<tr key={seg}><td className="font-medium">{seg}</td><td className="r num text-ink-3">{vals._n ? int(vals._n as number) : "—"}</td>{PARTY_IDS.map((pid) => <td key={pid} className="r num">{vals[pid] !== undefined && vals[pid] !== null ? Number(vals[pid]).toFixed(0) : "—"}</td>)}<td className="r num text-ink-3">{vals._page ?? "—"}</td></tr>))}</tbody></table>
75	75	</Card>
76	76	))}

modified web/src/app/sondages/page.tsx +9 −11

		`@@ -1,9 +1,10 @@`
1	1	import type { Metadata } from "next";
2	2	import { apiSafe, type Forecast, type Poll } from "@/lib/api";
3		−import { Legend, TrendChart } from "@/components/charts";
4		−import { Card, Empty, SectionHeader } from "@/components/ui";
	3	+import { Legend } from "@/components/charts";
	4	+import { TrendChartInteractive } from "@/components/trend-chart";
	5	+import { Card, Empty, PageTitle, SectionHeader } from "@/components/ui";
5	6	import { PollsTable } from "@/components/polls-table";
6		−import { PARTY_IDS, partyColor, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
	7	+import { PARTY_IDS, partyVar, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
7	8	import { dateShort } from "@/lib/format";
8	9
9	10	export const metadata: Metadata = { title: "Sondages Québec 2026 — Agrégateur et tendances", description: "Tous les sondages provinciaux depuis l'élection de 2022, avec documents originaux archivés, poids dans le modèle QC26, effets maison et sous-échantillons." };
		`@@ -15,17 +16,14 @@ export default async function Page() {`
15	16	const [data, f, ps] = await Promise.all([apiSafe<{ polls: Poll[]; trend: Forecast["trend"] }>("/api/polls?limit=600"), apiSafe<Forecast>("/api/forecast/latest"), apiSafe<{ pollsters: Pollster[] }>("/api/pollsters")]);
16	17	if (!data) return <Empty title="Sondages indisponibles" />;
17	18	const polls = data.polls;
18		− const pollPts = polls.filter((p) => !p.excluded).map((p) => ({ date: p.fieldworkEnd, values: p.results }));
	19	+ const pollPts = polls.filter((p) => !p.excluded).map((p) => ({ date: p.fieldworkEnd, values: p.results, pollster: p.pollster.name }));
19	20	const primary = polls.filter((p) => p.sourceTier === "primary").length;
20	21	return (
21	22	<div className="space-y-12">
22		− <div>
23		− <div className="eyebrow">Sondages · {polls.length} sondages · {primary} documents originaux archivés</div>
24		− <h1 className="display text-[36px] md:text-[48px] mt-2">Moyenne QC26</h1>
25		− <p className="text-ink-2 mt-3 max-w-2xl text-[15px] leading-relaxed">Chaque sondage provincial depuis le scrutin d'octobre 2022 : téléchargé chez la firme, haché (SHA-256), archivé, extrait page par page et validé avant d'entrer dans le modèle. Les lignes marquées « index » attendent encore leur document original.</p>
26		− </div>
	23	+ <PageTitle eyebrow={`Sondages · ${polls.length} sondages · ${primary} documents originaux archivés`} title="Moyenne QC26"
	24	+ lede="Chaque sondage provincial depuis le scrutin d'octobre 2022 : téléchargé chez la firme, haché (SHA-256), archivé, extrait page par page et validé avant d'entrer dans le modèle. Les lignes marquées « index » attendent encore leur document original." />
27	25	<Card>
28		− {f?.trend && <TrendChart trend={f.trend} polls={pollPts} height={360} election2022={{ caq: 40.98, plq: 14.37, qs: 15.43, pq: 14.61, pcq: 12.91 }} />}
	26	+ {f?.trend && <TrendChartInteractive trend={f.trend} polls={pollPts} height={360} election2022={{ caq: 40.98, plq: 14.37, qs: 15.43, pq: 14.61, pcq: 12.91 }} />}
29	27	<div className="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-between gap-2 mt-2"><Legend ids={PARTY_IDS} /><span className="text-[12px] text-ink-3">Points = sondages bruts · ligne = moyenne QC26 corrigée des effets maison · bande 80 %</span></div>
30	28	</Card>
31	29	<section>
		`@@ -36,7 +34,7 @@ export default async function Page() {`
36	34	<section>
37	35	<SectionHeader eyebrow="Firmes" title="Effets maison" description="Écart moyen de chaque firme à la tendance des autres firmes (points), rétréci de moitié et borné à ±3 ; positif = la firme mesure le parti plus haut que la moyenne." />
38	36	<Card pad={false} className="overflow-x-auto">
39		− <table className="data-table min-w-[640px]"><thead><tr><th>Firme</th><th className="r">Sondages</th><th>Dernier</th>{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <th key={id} className="r" style={{ color: partyColor(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</th>)}</tr></thead>
	37	+ <table className="data-table min-w-[640px]"><thead><tr><th>Firme</th><th className="r">Sondages</th><th>Dernier</th>{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <th key={id} className="r" style={{ color: partyVar(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</th>)}</tr></thead>
40	38	<tbody>{ps.pollsters.sort((a, b) => b.polls - a.polls).map((p) => (
41	39	<tr key={p.id}><td className="font-semibold">{p.website ? <a href={p.website} target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" className="hover:underline">{p.name}</a> : p.name}</td><td className="r num">{p.polls}</td><td className="num">{dateShort(p.lastPoll)}</td>{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <td key={id} className="r num">{p.houseEffects?.[id] !== undefined ? (p.houseEffects[id] > 0 ? "+" : "") + p.houseEffects[id].toFixed(1).replace(".", ",") : <span className="text-ink-3">—</span>}</td>)}</tr>
42	40	))}</tbody></table>

modified web/src/app/statut/page.tsx +4 −4

		`@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ export const revalidate = 30;`
8	8
9	9	interface Status { components: Record<string, string>; sources: { id: string; name: string; url: string; tier: number; kind: string; status: string; lastCheckedAt: string \| null; lastOkAt: string \| null; detail: string \| null }[]; jobs: { id: number; kind: string; status: string; startedAt: string; finishedAt: string \| null; items: number; message: string \| null }[]; latestRun: { id: number; completedAt: string \| null } \| null; dbLatencyMs: number; sseClients: number; serverTime: string }
10	10
11		−const LABELS: Record<string, string> = { pollWatcher: "Poll watcher", forecastEngine: "Forecast engine", electionFeed: "Election feed", documentWatcher: "Document watcher", officialData: "Données officielles" };
	11	+const LABELS: Record<string, string> = { pollWatcher: "Poll watcher", forecastEngine: "Forecast engine", electionFeed: "Election feed", documentWatcher: "Document watcher", officialData: "Données officielles", signals: "Signaux (marchés, presse, attention)" };
12	12
13	13	export default async function Page() {
14	14	const st = await apiSafe<Status>("/api/status", { revalidate: 30 });
		`@@ -16,9 +16,9 @@ export default async function Page() {`
16	16	const tone = (s: string) => (s === "operational" ? "ok" : s === "ready" ? "accent" : "warn");
17	17	return (
18	18	<div className="space-y-8">
19		− <div><div className="eyebrow">QC26 Data Status</div><h1 className="display text-[36px] md:text-[48px] mt-2">Statut des données</h1><p className="text-ink-2 mt-2 text-[15px] num">Heure serveur {dateTimeFr(st.serverTime)} · latence base {st.dbLatencyMs} ms · {st.sseClients} clients SSE</p></div>
20		− <div className="grid sm:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-5 gap-3">{Object.entries(st.components).map(([k, v]) => <Card key={k}><div className="text-[13px] font-semibold">{LABELS[k] ?? k}</div><div className="mt-2"><Badge tone={tone(v)}>● {v}</Badge></div></Card>)}</div>
21		− <section><SectionHeader eyebrow="Sources" title="Connecteurs et sources" description="Tier 1 = officiel (Élections Québec, partis), 2 = firmes de sondage, 5 = index tiers (amorçage uniquement)." /><Card pad={false} className="overflow-x-auto"><table className="data-table min-w-[720px]"><thead><tr><th>Source</th><th>Tier</th><th>Statut</th><th>Vérifié</th><th>Dernier succès</th><th>Détail</th></tr></thead><tbody>{st.sources.sort((a, b) => a.tier - b.tier).map((s) => <tr key={s.id}><td><a href={s.url} target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" className="font-medium hover:underline">{s.name}</a></td><td className="num">{s.tier}</td><td><Badge tone={tone(s.status)}>{s.status}</Badge></td><td className="num text-ink-2">{s.lastCheckedAt ? relTime(s.lastCheckedAt) : "—"}</td><td className="num text-ink-2">{s.lastOkAt ? relTime(s.lastOkAt) : "—"}</td><td className="text-[12px] text-ink-3">{s.detail}</td></tr>)}</tbody></table></Card></section>
	19	+ <div><div className="eyebrow eyebrow-accent">QC26 Data Status</div><h1 className="display text-[40px] md:text-[56px] mt-3">Statut des données</h1><p className="text-ink-2 mt-2 text-[15px] num">Heure serveur {dateTimeFr(st.serverTime)} · latence base {st.dbLatencyMs} ms · {st.sseClients} clients SSE</p></div>
	20	+ <div className="grid sm:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-6 gap-3">{Object.entries(st.components).map(([k, v]) => <Card key={k}><div className="text-[13px] font-semibold">{LABELS[k] ?? k}</div><div className="mt-2"><Badge tone={tone(v)}>● {v}</Badge></div></Card>)}</div>
	21	+ <section><SectionHeader eyebrow="Sources" title="Connecteurs et sources" description="Tier 1 = officiel (Élections Québec, partis), 2 = firmes de sondage, 3 = signaux (marchés, presse, attention), 5 = index tiers (amorçage uniquement)." /><Card pad={false} className="overflow-x-auto"><table className="data-table min-w-[720px]"><thead><tr><th>Source</th><th>Tier</th><th>Statut</th><th>Vérifié</th><th>Dernier succès</th><th>Détail</th></tr></thead><tbody>{st.sources.sort((a, b) => a.tier - b.tier).map((s) => <tr key={s.id}><td><a href={s.url} target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" className="font-medium hover:underline">{s.name}</a></td><td className="num">{s.tier}</td><td><Badge tone={tone(s.status)}>{s.status}</Badge></td><td className="num text-ink-2">{s.lastCheckedAt ? relTime(s.lastCheckedAt) : "—"}</td><td className="num text-ink-2">{s.lastOkAt ? relTime(s.lastOkAt) : "—"}</td><td className="text-[12px] text-ink-3">{s.detail}</td></tr>)}</tbody></table></Card></section>
22	22	<section><SectionHeader eyebrow="Travaux" title="Derniers travaux d'ingestion" /><Card pad={false}><table className="data-table"><thead><tr><th>Travail</th><th>Statut</th><th>Début</th><th>Fin</th><th className="r">Éléments</th><th>Message</th></tr></thead><tbody>{st.jobs.map((j) => <tr key={j.id}><td className="font-medium">{j.kind}</td><td><Badge tone={j.status === "ok" ? "ok" : j.status === "running" ? "accent" : "warn"}>{j.status}</Badge></td><td className="num">{dateTimeFr(j.startedAt)}</td><td className="num">{dateTimeFr(j.finishedAt)}</td><td className="r num">{j.items}</td><td className="text-[12px] text-ink-3">{j.message}</td></tr>)}</tbody></table></Card></section>
23	23	</div>
24	24	);

modified web/src/components/ask-box.tsx +2 −2

		`@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@`
2	2
3	3	import Link from "next/link";
4	4	import { useState } from "react";
5		−import { PARTY_IDS, partyColor, partyLabel, partyName } from "@/lib/parties";
	5	+import { PARTY_IDS, partyVar, partyLabel, partyName } from "@/lib/parties";
6	6	import { Card } from "./ui";
7	7
8	8	interface Ask { query: string; terms: string[]; parties: Record<string, { id: number; proposal: string; quote: string; page: number \| null; topic: string; confidence: number; document: { id: number; title: string \| null; url: string \| null } }[]>; note: string }
		`@@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ export function AskBox() {`
27	27	{res && (
28	28	<div className="mt-5 grid md:grid-cols-2 xl:grid-cols-5 gap-3">
29	29	{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => (
30		− <div key={id} className="surface-2 rounded-[8px] p-3" style={{ borderTop: `3px solid ${partyColor(id)}` }}>
	30	+ <div key={id} className="surface-2 rounded-[8px] p-3" style={{ borderTop: `3px solid ${partyVar(id)}` }}>
31	31	<div className="font-semibold text-[13px] mb-2">{partyName(id)}</div>
32	32	{(res.parties[id] ?? []).length === 0 ? <div className="text-[12px] text-ink-3">Aucune proposition trouvée dans les documents ingérés.</div> : (res.parties[id] ?? []).map((p) => (
33	33	<div key={p.id} className="mb-2.5 text-[12.5px] leading-snug"><div>{p.proposal}</div><div className="text-[11.5px] text-ink-3 mt-0.5"><Link href={`/documents/${p.document.id}#p${p.id}`} className="link">{p.document.title ?? "Document"}</Link>{p.page ? ` · p. ${p.page}` : ""}</div></div>

modified web/src/components/charts.tsx +162 −49

		`@@ -1,7 +1,8 @@`
1		−/** Graphiques SVG QC26 (rendu serveur possible, sans dépendance). */
	1	+/** Graphiques SVG QC26 (rendu serveur, sans dépendance). Marques fines, grille en filigrane,
	2	+ * étiquettes directes sélectives ; les couleurs de partis viennent de variables CSS (thème clair/sombre). */
2	3	import type { ReactNode } from "react";
3	4	import type { TrendPoint } from "@/lib/api";
4		−import { OTHERS, PARTY_IDS, partyColor, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
	5	+import { OTHERS, PARTY_IDS, partyAlpha, partyLabel, partyVar } from "@/lib/parties";
5	6	import { cls } from "@/lib/format";
6	7
7	8	// -------------------------------------------------------------- SeatMeter
		`@@ -11,29 +12,25 @@ export function SeatMeter({ seats, total, majority, height = 22, showLabels = tr`
11	12	}) {
12	13	const entries = Object.entries(seats).filter(([id]) => id !== "aut").sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1]);
13	14	const others = seats["aut"] ?? 0;
14		− let x = 0;
15	15	const majX = (majority / total) * 100;
16	16	return (
17	17	<div className={cls("w-full", className)}>
18		− <div className="relative" style={{ height: height + 22 }} role="img" aria-label={title ?? `Répartition des sièges sur ${total}, majorité à ${majority}`}>
19		− <div className="absolute inset-x-0 top-[14px] rounded-[6px] overflow-hidden bg-surface-3 flex" style={{ height }}>
20		− {entries.map(([id, n]) => {
21		− const w = (n / total) * 100;
22		− const el = <div key={id} className="h-full relative" style={{ width: `${w}%`, background: partyColor(id) }} title={`${partyLabel(id)} : ${n}`} />;
23		− x += w;
24		− return el;
25		− })}
	18	+ <div className="relative" style={{ height: height + 24 }} role="img" aria-label={title ?? `Répartition des sièges sur ${total}, majorité à ${majority}`}>
	19	+ <div className="absolute inset-x-0 top-[16px] rounded-[7px] overflow-hidden bg-surface-3 flex gap-[2px]" style={{ height }}>
	20	+ {entries.map(([id, n]) => (
	21	+ <div key={id} className="h-full relative" style={{ width: `calc(${(n / total) * 100}% - 2px)`, background: partyVar(id) }} title={`${partyLabel(id)} : ${n}`} />
	22	+ ))}
26	23	{others > 0 && <div className="h-full" style={{ width: `${(others / total) * 100}%`, background: OTHERS.color }} title={`Autres : ${others}`} />}
27	24	</div>
28		− <div className="absolute top-0 bottom-0 w-[2px] bg-ink" style={{ left: `calc(${majX}% - 1px)` }} aria-hidden />
29		− <div className="absolute -top-[2px] text-[10.5px] font-bold uppercase tracking-wider num translate-x-[-50%] bg-background px-1" style={{ left: `${majX}%` }}>
30		− {majority} · Majorité
	25	+ <div className="absolute top-[10px] bottom-0 w-[2px] bg-ink" style={{ left: `calc(${majX}% - 1px)` }} aria-hidden />
	26	+ <div className="absolute top-0 mono text-[10px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-[0.08em] translate-x-[-50%] bg-background px-1 text-ink" style={{ left: `${majX}%` }}>
	27	+ {majority} · majorité
31	28	</div>
32	29	</div>
33	30	{showLabels && (
34		− <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-x-4 gap-y-1 mt-1 text-[12.5px]">
	31	+ <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-x-4 gap-y-1 mt-1.5 text-[12.5px]">
35	32	{entries.map(([id, n]) => (
36		− <span key={id} className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 num"><span className="w-2.5 h-2.5 rounded-[3px] inline-block" style={{ background: partyColor(id) }} /><span className="font-semibold">{partyLabel(id)}</span> {n}</span>
	33	+ <span key={id} className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 num"><span className="w-2.5 h-2.5 rounded-[3px] inline-block" style={{ background: partyVar(id) }} /><span className="font-semibold">{partyLabel(id)}</span> {n}</span>
37	34	))}
38	35	{others > 0 && <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 num"><span className="w-2.5 h-2.5 rounded-[3px] inline-block" style={{ background: OTHERS.color }} />Autres {others}</span>}
39	36	</div>
		`@@ -42,6 +39,27 @@ export function SeatMeter({ seats, total, majority, height = 22, showLabels = tr`
42	39	);
43	40	}
44	41
	42	+// -------------------------------------------------------------- SeatWaffle
	43	+/** Les 127 sièges, un point chacun, colorés par la médiane projetée ; le trait marque le seuil de majorité. */
	44	+export function SeatWaffle({ seats, total, majority, cols = 16, className, dot = 14, gap = 4 }: { seats: Record<string, number>; total: number; majority: number; cols?: number; className?: string; dot?: number; gap?: number }) {
	45	+ const entries = Object.entries(seats).filter(([id]) => id !== "aut").sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1]);
	46	+ const cells: (string \| null)[] = [];
	47	+ entries.forEach(([id, n]) => { for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) cells.push(id); });
	48	+ while (cells.length < total) cells.push(null);
	49	+ const rows = Math.ceil(total / cols);
	50	+ const W = cols * (dot + gap) - gap, H = rows * (dot + gap) - gap;
	51	+ const mi = majority - 1, mr = Math.floor(mi / cols), mc = mi % cols;
	52	+ return (
	53	+ <svg viewBox={`0 0 ${W} ${H}`} className={cls("w-full h-auto", className)} role="img" aria-label={`${total} sièges ; ${entries.map(([id, n]) => `${partyLabel(id)} ${n}`).join(", ")} ; majorité à ${majority}`}>
	54	+ {cells.slice(0, total).map((id, i) => {
	55	+ const r = Math.floor(i / cols), c = i % cols;
	56	+ return <rect key={i} className="waffle-dot" x={c * (dot + gap)} y={r * (dot + gap)} width={dot} height={dot} rx={dot * 0.32} fill={id ? partyVar(id) : "var(--surface-3)"} />;
	57	+ })}
	58	+ <line x1={(mc + 1) * (dot + gap) - gap / 2} x2={(mc + 1) * (dot + gap) - gap / 2} y1={mr * (dot + gap) - 3} y2={(mr + 1) * (dot + gap) - gap + 3} stroke="var(--text)" strokeWidth={2.5} strokeLinecap="round" />
	59	+ </svg>
	60	+ );
	61	+}
	62	+
45	63	// ------------------------------------------------------- SeatDistribution
46	64	/** Distribution des sièges d'un parti (histogramme Monte Carlo) avec seuil de majorité et intervalles. */
47	65	export function SeatDistribution({ dist, color, majority, median, lo80, hi80, lo95, hi95, height = 120, className, total }: {
		`@@ -50,8 +68,6 @@ export function SeatDistribution({ dist, color, majority, median, lo80, hi80, lo`
50	68	const n = dist.length;
51	69	const max = Math.max(...dist, 1);
52	70	const W = 640, H = height, pad = 18;
53		− const bw = (W - 2 * pad) / n;
54		− const xs = (i: number) => pad + i * bw;
55	71	const vis = dist.map((v, i) => [i, v] as const).filter(([, v]) => v > 0);
56	72	const minI = Math.max(0, (vis[0]?.[0] ?? 0) - 2), maxI = Math.min(n - 1, (vis[vis.length - 1]?.[0] ?? n - 1) + 2);
57	73	const span = Math.max(1, maxI - minI);
		`@@ -60,34 +76,34 @@ export function SeatDistribution({ dist, color, majority, median, lo80, hi80, lo`
60	76	return (
61	77	<svg viewBox={`0 0 ${W} ${H + 26}`} className={cls("w-full h-auto", className)} role="img" aria-label={`Distribution des sièges, médiane ${median}, intervalle 80 % ${lo80}–${hi80}, 95 % ${lo95}–${hi95}, majorité à ${majority}`}>
62	78	<rect x={xz(lo95)} y={0} width={Math.max(1, xz(hi95) - xz(lo95) + bwz)} height={H} fill={color} opacity={0.06} />
63		− <rect x={xz(lo80)} y={0} width={Math.max(1, xz(hi80) - xz(lo80) + bwz)} height={H} fill={color} opacity={0.08} />
	79	+ <rect x={xz(lo80)} y={0} width={Math.max(1, xz(hi80) - xz(lo80) + bwz)} height={H} fill={color} opacity={0.09} />
64	80	{dist.map((v, i) => (i < minI \|\| i > maxI \|\| v === 0) ? null : (
65		− <rect key={i} x={xz(i) + 0.5} y={H - (v / max) * (H - 8)} width={Math.max(1, bwz - 1)} height={(v / max) * (H - 8)} fill={color} opacity={i >= majority ? 1 : 0.55} rx={1} />
	81	+ <rect key={i} x={xz(i) + 0.5} y={H - (v / max) * (H - 8)} width={Math.max(1, bwz - 1)} height={(v / max) * (H - 8)} fill={color} opacity={i >= majority ? 1 : 0.5} rx={1.5} />
66	82	))}
67	83	{majority >= minI && majority <= maxI && (
68	84	<>
69		− <line x1={xz(majority)} x2={xz(majority)} y1={0} y2={H + 4} stroke="var(--text)" strokeWidth={1.5} strokeDasharray="3 3" />
70		− <text x={xz(majority) + 4} y={11} fontSize={10.5} fontWeight={700} fill="var(--text)" className="num">{majority} · majorité</text>
	85	+ <line x1={xz(majority)} x2={xz(majority)} y1={0} y2={H + 4} stroke="var(--text)" strokeWidth={1.5} />
	86	+ <text x={xz(majority) + 4} y={11} fontSize={10.5} fontWeight={600} fill="var(--text)" fontFamily="var(--font-mono)">{majority} · majorité</text>
71	87	</>
72	88	)}
73		− <line x1={xz(median) + bwz / 2} x2={xz(median) + bwz / 2} y1={0} y2={H} stroke={color} strokeWidth={2} />
74		− {[minI, Math.round((minI + maxI) / 2), maxI].map((i) => (
75		− <text key={i} x={xz(i) + bwz / 2} y={H + 20} fontSize={10.5} textAnchor="middle" fill="var(--text-2)" className="num">{i}</text>
	89	+ <line x1={xz(median) + bwz / 2} x2={xz(median) + bwz / 2} y1={0} y2={H} stroke="var(--text)" strokeWidth={1} strokeOpacity={0.6} />
	90	+ {[minI, Math.round((minI + maxI) / 2), maxI].filter((i) => Math.abs(i - median) > Math.max(3, span * 0.06)).map((i) => (
	91	+ <text key={i} x={xz(i) + bwz / 2} y={H + 20} fontSize={10.5} textAnchor="middle" fill="var(--text-3)" fontFamily="var(--font-mono)">{i}</text>
76	92	))}
77		− <text x={xz(median) + bwz / 2} y={H + 20} fontSize={10.5} textAnchor="middle" fontWeight={700} fill={color} className="num">{median}</text>
	93	+ <text x={xz(median) + bwz / 2} y={H + 20} fontSize={10.5} textAnchor="middle" fontWeight={700} fill="var(--text)" fontFamily="var(--font-mono)">{median}</text>
78	94	<title>{`Sur ${total} sièges`}</title>
79	95	</svg>
80	96	);
81	97	}
82	98
83		−// ----------------------------------------------------------------- Trend
	99	+// ----------------------------------------------------------------- Trend (statique)
84	100	export function TrendChart({ trend, polls, from, height = 300, showBand = true, ids = PARTY_IDS, className, markers = [], election2022 }: {
85	101	trend: TrendPoint[]; polls?: { date: string; values: Record<string, number>; id?: string }[]; from?: string; height?: number; showBand?: boolean; ids?: string[]; className?: string;
86	102	markers?: { date: string; label: string }[]; election2022?: Record<string, number> \| null;
87	103	}) {
88	104	const pts = from ? trend.filter((t) => t.date >= from) : trend;
89	105	if (pts.length < 2) return <div className="text-ink-3 text-sm">Pas assez de données.</div>;
90		− const W = 900, H = height, pl = 34, pr = 78, pt = 12, pb = 28;
	106	+ const W = 900, H = height, pl = 34, pr = 84, pt = 12, pb = 28;
91	107	const t0 = new Date(pts[0].date).getTime(), t1 = new Date(pts[pts.length - 1].date).getTime();
92	108	const x = (d: string) => pl + ((new Date(d).getTime() - t0) / Math.max(1, t1 - t0)) * (W - pl - pr);
93	109	const allVals = pts.flatMap((p) => ids.map((id) => p.mean[id] ?? 0));
		`@@ -95,7 +111,6 @@ export function TrendChart({ trend, polls, from, height = 300, showBand = true,`
95	111	const ymax = Math.min(100, Math.ceil((Math.max(...allVals, ...pollVals, 10) + 4) / 5) * 5);
96	112	const y = (v: number) => pt + (1 - v / ymax) * (H - pt - pb);
97	113	const ticks = Array.from({ length: Math.floor(ymax / 10) + 1 }, (_, i) => i * 10);
98		− // repères temporels : premier jour de chaque mois (ou trimestre si long)
99	114	const months: { d: Date; label: string }[] = [];
100	115	const spanDays = (t1 - t0) / 86400000;
101	116	const step = spanDays > 900 ? 6 : spanDays > 400 ? 3 : 1;
		`@@ -112,39 +127,41 @@ export function TrendChart({ trend, polls, from, height = 300, showBand = true,`
112	127	};
113	128	const last = pts[pts.length - 1];
114	129	const labels = ids.map((id) => ({ id, v: last.mean[id] ?? 0 })).sort((a, b) => b.v - a.v);
115		− // évite les chevauchements d'étiquettes
116	130	let prevY = -Infinity;
117	131	const labelY = labels.map((l) => { let yy = y(l.v); if (yy - prevY < 13) yy = prevY + 13; prevY = yy; return yy; });
118	132	return (
119	133	<svg viewBox={`0 0 ${W} ${H}`} className={cls("w-full h-auto", className)} role="img" aria-label="Évolution des intentions de vote (moyenne QC26) et sondages">
120	134	{ticks.map((t) => (
121	135	<g key={t}>
122		− <line x1={pl} x2={W - pr} y1={y(t)} y2={y(t)} stroke="var(--border)" strokeWidth={1} />
123		− <text x={pl - 6} y={y(t) + 3.5} fontSize={10.5} textAnchor="end" fill="var(--text-3)" className="num">{t}</text>
	136	+ <line x1={pl} x2={W - pr} y1={y(t)} y2={y(t)} stroke="var(--grid)" strokeWidth={1} />
	137	+ <text x={pl - 6} y={y(t) + 3.5} fontSize={10.5} textAnchor="end" fill="var(--text-3)" fontFamily="var(--font-mono)">{t}</text>
124	138	</g>
125	139	))}
126	140	{months.map((m, i) => (
127	141	<g key={i}>
128		− <line x1={x(m.d.toISOString())} x2={x(m.d.toISOString())} y1={pt} y2={H - pb + 4} stroke="var(--border)" strokeWidth={1} />
129		− <text x={x(m.d.toISOString())} y={H - 8} fontSize={10.5} textAnchor="middle" fill="var(--text-3)">{m.label}</text>
	142	+ <line x1={x(m.d.toISOString())} x2={x(m.d.toISOString())} y1={pt} y2={H - pb + 4} stroke="var(--grid)" strokeWidth={1} />
	143	+ <text x={x(m.d.toISOString())} y={H - 8} fontSize={10.5} textAnchor="middle" fill="var(--text-3)" fontFamily="var(--font-mono)">{m.label}</text>
130	144	</g>
131	145	))}
132	146	{markers.filter((m) => new Date(m.date).getTime() >= t0 && new Date(m.date).getTime() <= t1).map((m, i) => (
133	147	<g key={`m${i}`}>
134	148	<line x1={x(m.date)} x2={x(m.date)} y1={pt} y2={H - pb} stroke="var(--text-2)" strokeWidth={1} strokeDasharray="2 3" />
135		− <text x={x(m.date) + 3} y={pt + 9} fontSize={9.5} fill="var(--text-2)">{m.label}</text>
	149	+ <text x={x(m.date) + 4} y={pt + 9} fontSize={9.5} fill="var(--text-2)" fontFamily="var(--font-mono)">{m.label}</text>
136	150	</g>
137	151	))}
138	152	{polls?.filter((p) => !from \|\| p.date >= from).map((p, i) => ids.map((id) => p.values[id] === undefined ? null : (
139		− <circle key={`${i}-${id}`} cx={x(p.date)} cy={y(p.values[id])} r={2.6} fill={partyColor(id)} opacity={0.35} />
	153	+ <circle key={`${i}-${id}`} cx={x(p.date)} cy={y(p.values[id])} r={2.6} fill={partyVar(id)} opacity={0.3} />
140	154	)))}
141		− {showBand && ids.map((id) => <path key={`b${id}`} d={band(id)} fill={partyColor(id)} opacity={0.10} />)}
142		− {ids.map((id) => <path key={id} d={path(id)} fill="none" stroke={partyColor(id)} strokeWidth={2.4} strokeLinejoin="round" strokeLinecap="round" />)}
	155	+ {showBand && ids.map((id) => <path key={`b${id}`} d={band(id)} fill={partyVar(id)} opacity={0.1} />)}
	156	+ {ids.map((id) => <path key={id} d={path(id)} fill="none" stroke={partyVar(id)} strokeWidth={2} strokeLinejoin="round" strokeLinecap="round" />)}
	157	+ {ids.map((id) => <circle key={`e${id}`} cx={x(last.date)} cy={y(last.mean[id] ?? 0)} r={3.5} fill={partyVar(id)} stroke="var(--surface)" strokeWidth={2} />)}
143	158	{election2022 && ids.map((id) => election2022[id] !== undefined && (
144		− <g key={`e${id}`}><rect x={pl - 2} y={y(election2022[id]) - 1.5} width={5} height={3} fill={partyColor(id)} /></g>
	159	+ <g key={`e22${id}`}><rect x={pl - 2} y={y(election2022[id]) - 1.5} width={5} height={3} fill={partyVar(id)} /></g>
145	160	))}
146	161	{labels.map((l, i) => (
147		− <text key={l.id} x={W - pr + 6} y={labelY[i] + 4} fontSize={12} fontWeight={700} fill={partyColor(l.id)} className="num">{partyLabel(l.id)} {l.v.toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")}</text>
	162	+ <text key={l.id} x={W - pr + 8} y={labelY[i] + 4} fontSize={12} fontWeight={600} fill="var(--text)" fontFamily="var(--font-sans)">
	163	+ <tspan fill={partyVar(l.id)}>■</tspan> {partyLabel(l.id)} <tspan fontFamily="var(--font-mono)">{l.v.toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")}</tspan>
	164	+ </text>
148	165	))}
149	166	</svg>
150	167	);
		`@@ -158,12 +175,12 @@ export function VoteBars({ values, ci, max, className, order }: { values: Record`
158	175	<div className={cls("space-y-2", className)}>
159	176	{ids.map((id) => (
160	177	<div key={id} className="grid grid-cols-[44px_1fr_58px] items-center gap-3 text-[13.5px]">
161		− <span className="font-semibold num" style={{ color: partyColor(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</span>
162		− <div className="relative h-[14px] bg-surface-3 rounded-[4px] overflow-hidden">
163		− {ci?.[id] && <div className="absolute top-0 bottom-0 rounded-[4px]" style={{ left: `${(ci[id][0] / m) * 100}%`, width: `${((ci[id][1] - ci[id][0]) / m) * 100}%`, background: partyColor(id), opacity: 0.25 }} />}
164		− <div className="absolute top-0 bottom-0 left-0 rounded-[4px]" style={{ width: `${(values[id] / m) * 100}%`, background: partyColor(id) }} />
	178	+ <span className="font-semibold num inline-flex items-center gap-1.5"><span className="w-2 h-2 rounded-full" style={{ background: partyVar(id) }} />{partyLabel(id)}</span>
	179	+ <div className="relative h-[12px] bg-surface-3 rounded-[4px] overflow-hidden">
	180	+ {ci?.[id] && <div className="absolute top-0 bottom-0 rounded-[4px]" style={{ left: `${(ci[id][0] / m) * 100}%`, width: `${((ci[id][1] - ci[id][0]) / m) * 100}%`, background: partyAlpha(id, 0.25) }} />}
	181	+ <div className="absolute top-0 bottom-0 left-0 rounded-[4px]" style={{ width: `${(values[id] / m) * 100}%`, background: partyVar(id) }} />
165	182	</div>
166		− <span className="num font-semibold text-right">{values[id].toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")} %</span>
	183	+ <span className="num font-semibold text-right mono">{values[id].toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")} %</span>
167	184	</div>
168	185	))}
169	186	</div>
		`@@ -174,19 +191,115 @@ export function Legend({ ids, className }: { ids: string[]; className?: string }`
174	191	return (
175	192	<div className={cls("flex flex-wrap gap-x-4 gap-y-1 text-[12.5px]", className)}>
176	193	{ids.map((id) => (
177		− <span key={id} className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5"><span className="w-2.5 h-2.5 rounded-full inline-block" style={{ background: partyColor(id) }} />{partyLabel(id)}</span>
	194	+ <span key={id} className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5"><span className="w-2.5 h-2.5 rounded-full inline-block" style={{ background: partyVar(id) }} />{partyLabel(id)}</span>
178	195	))}
179	196	</div>
180	197	);
181	198	}
182	199
183		−export function Sparkline({ values, color, width = 120, height = 32, className }: { values: number[]; color: string; width?: number; height?: number; className?: string }) {
	200	+export function Sparkline({ values, color, width = 120, height = 32, className, fill = false }: { values: number[]; color: string; width?: number; height?: number; className?: string; fill?: boolean }) {
184	201	if (values.length < 2) return null;
185	202	const min = Math.min(...values), max = Math.max(...values), span = Math.max(0.001, max - min);
186		− const pts = values.map((v, i) => `${(i / (values.length - 1)) * width},${height - ((v - min) / span) * (height - 4) - 2}`).join(" ");
187		− return <svg width={width} height={height} className={className} aria-hidden><polyline points={pts} fill="none" stroke={color} strokeWidth={1.8} strokeLinejoin="round" /></svg>;
	203	+ const pts = values.map((v, i) => [(i / (values.length - 1)) * width, height - ((v - min) / span) * (height - 6) - 3] as const);
	204	+ const line = pts.map(([x, y]) => `${x.toFixed(1)},${y.toFixed(1)}`).join(" ");
	205	+ const last = pts[pts.length - 1];
	206	+ return (
	207	+ <svg width={width} height={height} viewBox={`0 0 ${width} ${height}`} className={className} aria-hidden>
	208	+ {fill && <polygon points={`0,${height} ${line} ${width},${height}`} fill={color} opacity={0.12} />}
	209	+ <polyline points={line} fill="none" stroke={color} strokeWidth={1.8} strokeLinejoin="round" strokeLinecap="round" />
	210	+ <circle cx={last[0]} cy={last[1]} r={2.5} fill={color} />
	211	+ </svg>
	212	+ );
188	213	}
189	214
190	215	export function Note({ children }: { children: ReactNode }) {
191	216	return <p className="text-[12px] text-ink-3 leading-relaxed mt-2">{children}</p>;
192	217	}
	218	+
	219	+// -------------------------------------------------------- DotComparison
	220	+/** Points comparés (ex. P(plus de sièges) : sondages seuls · marchés · ensemble) par parti, sur une échelle 0–max. */
	221	+export function DotComparison({ rows, series, className, max = 1, format = (v: number) => `${Math.round(v * 100)} %` }: {
	222	+ rows: { id: string; label: string; values: Record<string, number \| null \| undefined> }[];
	223	+ series: { key: string; label: string; shape: "dot" \| "ring" \| "diamond" }[];
	224	+ className?: string; max?: number; format?: (v: number) => string;
	225	+}) {
	226	+ const W = 520, rowH = 38, pl = 56, pr = 16, H = rows.length * rowH + 16;
	227	+ const x = (v: number) => pl + (Math.max(0, Math.min(max, v)) / max) * (W - pl - pr);
	228	+ return (
	229	+ <div className={className}>
	230	+ <svg viewBox={`0 0 ${W} ${H}`} className="w-full h-auto" role="img" aria-label="Comparaison des probabilités par source">
	231	+ {[0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1].map((t) => <line key={t} x1={x(t * max)} x2={x(t * max)} y1={4} y2={H - 12} stroke="var(--grid)" />)}
	232	+ {rows.map((r, i) => {
	233	+ const cy = i * rowH + rowH / 2 + 4;
	234	+ const vals = series.map((s) => r.values[s.key]).filter((v): v is number => typeof v === "number");
	235	+ const lo = Math.min(...vals), hi = Math.max(...vals);
	236	+ return (
	237	+ <g key={r.id}>
	238	+ <text x={pl - 10} y={cy + 4.5} textAnchor="end" fontSize={13} fontWeight={600} fill="var(--text)" fontFamily="var(--font-sans)">{r.label}</text>
	239	+ <line x1={pl} x2={W - pr} y1={cy} y2={cy} stroke="var(--grid)" />
	240	+ {vals.length > 1 && <line x1={x(lo)} x2={x(hi)} y1={cy} y2={cy} stroke={partyVar(r.id)} strokeWidth={2} opacity={0.5} />}
	241	+ {series.map((s) => {
	242	+ const v = r.values[s.key];
	243	+ if (typeof v !== "number") return null;
	244	+ const cx = x(v);
	245	+ if (s.shape === "ring") return <circle key={s.key} cx={cx} cy={cy} r={6} fill="var(--surface)" stroke={partyVar(r.id)} strokeWidth={2.2} />;
	246	+ if (s.shape === "diamond") return <rect key={s.key} x={cx - 5} y={cy - 5} width={10} height={10} transform={`rotate(45 ${cx} ${cy})`} fill={partyVar(r.id)} stroke="var(--surface)" strokeWidth={1.5} />;
	247	+ return <circle key={s.key} cx={cx} cy={cy} r={6.5} fill={partyVar(r.id)} stroke="var(--surface)" strokeWidth={2} />;
	248	+ })}
	249	+ </g>
	250	+ );
	251	+ })}
	252	+ {[0, 0.5, 1].map((t) => <text key={t} x={x(t * max)} y={H - 1} textAnchor="middle" fontSize={11} fill="var(--text-3)" fontFamily="var(--font-mono)">{format(t * max)}</text>)}
	253	+ </svg>
	254	+ <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-x-4 gap-y-1 mt-2 text-[12px] text-ink-2">
	255	+ {series.map((s) => (
	256	+ <span key={s.key} className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5">
	257	+ {s.shape === "ring" ? <span className="w-3 h-3 rounded-full border-2 border-ink-2 inline-block" /> : s.shape === "diamond" ? <span className="w-2.5 h-2.5 bg-ink-2 inline-block rotate-45" /> : <span className="w-3 h-3 rounded-full bg-ink-2 inline-block" />}
	258	+ {s.label}
	259	+ </span>
	260	+ ))}
	261	+ </div>
	262	+ </div>
	263	+ );
	264	+}
	265	+
	266	+// ------------------------------------------------------------ DivergingBars
	267	+/** Barres divergentes centrées sur zéro (ton médiatique −1…+1, momentum en pp), par parti. */
	268	+export function DivergingBars({ values, max, format, className, ids = PARTY_IDS }: { values: Record<string, number \| null \| undefined>; max: number; format: (v: number) => string; className?: string; ids?: string[] }) {
	269	+ return (
	270	+ <div className={cls("space-y-1.5", className)}>
	271	+ {ids.map((id) => {
	272	+ const v = values[id];
	273	+ const has = typeof v === "number";
	274	+ const w = has ? Math.min(1, Math.abs(v) / max) * 50 : 0;
	275	+ return (
	276	+ <div key={id} className="grid grid-cols-[40px_1fr_64px] items-center gap-3 text-[12.5px]">
	277	+ <span className="font-semibold num inline-flex items-center gap-1.5"><span className="w-2 h-2 rounded-full" style={{ background: partyVar(id) }} />{partyLabel(id)}</span>
	278	+ <div className="relative h-[10px] bg-surface-3 rounded-[4px] overflow-hidden">
	279	+ <div className="absolute inset-y-0 left-1/2 w-px bg-ink-3 opacity-60" />
	280	+ {has && <div className="absolute inset-y-0 rounded-[3px]" style={{ left: v >= 0 ? "50%" : `${50 - w}%`, width: `${w}%`, background: partyVar(id) }} />}
	281	+ </div>
	282	+ <span className={cls("num text-right mono", has ? "font-semibold" : "text-ink-3")}>{has ? format(v) : "—"}</span>
	283	+ </div>
	284	+ );
	285	+ })}
	286	+ </div>
	287	+ );
	288	+}
	289	+
	290	+// ------------------------------------------------------------- StackedShare
	291	+/** Part (%) empilée horizontalement par parti (part de voix, part d'attention). */
	292	+export function StackedShare({ values, className, height = 12 }: { values: Record<string, number \| null \| undefined>; className?: string; height?: number }) {
	293	+ const ids = PARTY_IDS.filter((id) => typeof values[id] === "number" && (values[id] as number) > 0);
	294	+ const tot = ids.reduce((a, id) => a + (values[id] as number), 0) \|\| 1;
	295	+ return (
	296	+ <div className={className}>
	297	+ <div className="flex gap-[2px] rounded-[6px] overflow-hidden" style={{ height }}>
	298	+ {ids.map((id) => <div key={id} style={{ width: `${((values[id] as number) / tot) * 100}%`, background: partyVar(id) }} title={`${partyLabel(id)} ${(values[id] as number).toFixed(0)} %`} />)}
	299	+ </div>
	300	+ <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-x-3 gap-y-0.5 mt-1.5 text-[12px] num">
	301	+ {ids.map((id) => <span key={id} className="inline-flex items-center gap-1"><span className="w-2 h-2 rounded-full" style={{ background: partyVar(id) }} /><b>{partyLabel(id)}</b> {Math.round(((values[id] as number) / tot) * 100)} %</span>)}
	302	+ </div>
	303	+ </div>
	304	+ );
	305	+}

modified web/src/components/compass.tsx +7 −7

		`@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@`
3	3	import Link from "next/link";
4	4	import { useEffect, useMemo, useState } from "react";
5	5	import { cls, prob } from "@/lib/format";
6		−import { PARTY_IDS, partyColor, partyLabel, partyName } from "@/lib/parties";
	6	+import { PARTY_IDS, partyVar, partyLabel, partyName } from "@/lib/parties";
7	7	import { PartyLogo } from "./party";
8	8	import { Badge, Card, ProbabilityBar, SectionHeader } from "./ui";
9	9
		`@@ -44,8 +44,8 @@ export function Compass({ data }: { data: CompassData }) {`
44	44	<div className="mt-4 space-y-4">
45	45	{ranking.map((r) => (
46	46	<div key={r.id}>
47		− <div className="flex items-center justify-between gap-3 mb-1"><span className="inline-flex items-center gap-2"><PartyLogo id={r.id} height={18} /><b>{partyName(r.id)}</b><span className="text-[11.5px] text-ink-3">{r.coverage} énoncés documentés</span></span><span className="num font-bold text-[22px]" style={{ color: partyColor(r.id) }}>{r.score === null ? "—" : `${Math.round(r.score)} %`}</span></div>
48		− <ProbabilityBar p={(r.score ?? 0) / 100} color={partyColor(r.id)} showValue={false} height={12} />
	47	+ <div className="flex items-center justify-between gap-3 mb-1"><span className="inline-flex items-center gap-2"><PartyLogo id={r.id} height={18} /><b>{partyName(r.id)}</b><span className="text-[11.5px] text-ink-3">{r.coverage} énoncés documentés</span></span><span className="num font-bold text-[22px]" style={{ color: partyVar(r.id) }}>{r.score === null ? "—" : `${Math.round(r.score)} %`}</span></div>
	48	+ <ProbabilityBar p={(r.score ?? 0) / 100} color={partyVar(r.id)} showValue={false} height={12} />
49	49	</div>
50	50	))}
51	51	</div>
		`@@ -56,7 +56,7 @@ export function Compass({ data }: { data: CompassData }) {`
56	56	<div className="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-3">
57	57	{Object.entries(data.axes).map(([axis, a]) => (
58	58	<Card key={axis}><div className="font-semibold text-[14px]">{a.label}</div><div className="flex justify-between text-[11.5px] text-ink-3 mt-1"><span>{a.left}</span><span>{a.right}</span></div>
59		− <div className="mt-2 space-y-1">{ranking.filter((r) => r.axes[axis] !== undefined).map((r) => (<div key={r.id} className="grid grid-cols-[40px_1fr_44px] items-center gap-2 text-[12.5px]"><b style={{ color: partyColor(r.id) }}>{partyLabel(r.id)}</b><div className="h-[6px] bg-surface-3 rounded-full overflow-hidden"><div className="h-full" style={{ width: `${r.axes[axis]}%`, background: partyColor(r.id) }} /></div><span className="num text-right">{Math.round(r.axes[axis])} %</span></div>))}</div>
	59	+ <div className="mt-2 space-y-1">{ranking.filter((r) => r.axes[axis] !== undefined).map((r) => (<div key={r.id} className="grid grid-cols-[40px_1fr_44px] items-center gap-2 text-[12.5px]"><b style={{ color: partyVar(r.id) }}>{partyLabel(r.id)}</b><div className="h-[6px] bg-surface-3 rounded-full overflow-hidden"><div className="h-full" style={{ width: `${r.axes[axis]}%`, background: partyVar(r.id) }} /></div><span className="num text-right">{Math.round(r.axes[axis])} %</span></div>))}</div>
60	60	</Card>
61	61	))}
62	62	</div>
		`@@ -71,9 +71,9 @@ export function Compass({ data }: { data: CompassData }) {`
71	71	<div className="border-t border-border p-4 grid md:grid-cols-5 gap-3">
72	72	{PARTY_IDS.map((pid) => { const d = res.results[pid].details.find((dd) => dd.question_id === x.id); return (
73	73	<div key={pid} className="surface-2 rounded-[8px] p-3 text-[12.5px]">
74		− <div className="flex items-center justify-between"><b style={{ color: partyColor(pid) }}>{partyLabel(pid)}</b>{d ? <span className="num">{Math.round(d.agreement * 100)} %</span> : <Badge>non documenté</Badge>}</div>
	74	+ <div className="flex items-center justify-between"><b style={{ color: partyVar(pid) }}>{partyLabel(pid)}</b>{d ? <span className="num">{Math.round(d.agreement * 100)} %</span> : <Badge>non documenté</Badge>}</div>
75	75	{d ? (<><div className="mt-1">Position : <b>{SCALE.find((s) => s[0] === d.party)?.[1]}</b> <span className="text-ink-3">(confiance {Math.round(d.confidence * 100)} %)</span></div>{d.rationale && <div className="text-ink-2 mt-1 leading-relaxed">{d.rationale}</div>}
76		− <ul className="mt-2 space-y-1.5">{d.proposal_ids.slice(0, 3).map((pid2) => { const p = res.proposals[String(pid2)]; return p ? (<li key={pid2} className="border-l-2 pl-2" style={{ borderColor: partyColor(pid) }}><div className="italic text-ink-2">« {p.quote.slice(0, 220)}{p.quote.length > 220 ? "…" : ""} »</div><div className="text-[11.5px] text-ink-3 mt-0.5"><Link href={`/documents/${p.documentId}`} className="link">{p.documentTitle ?? "Document"}</Link>{p.page ? ` · p. ${p.page}` : ""} · confiance {Math.round(p.confidence * 100)} %</div></li>) : null; })}</ul></>) : <div className="text-ink-3 mt-1">Aucune proposition officielle ingérée ne permet de situer ce parti sur cet énoncé.</div>}
	76	+ <ul className="mt-2 space-y-1.5">{d.proposal_ids.slice(0, 3).map((pid2) => { const p = res.proposals[String(pid2)]; return p ? (<li key={pid2} className="border-l-2 pl-2" style={{ borderColor: partyVar(pid) }}><div className="italic text-ink-2">« {p.quote.slice(0, 220)}{p.quote.length > 220 ? "…" : ""} »</div><div className="text-[11.5px] text-ink-3 mt-0.5"><Link href={`/documents/${p.documentId}`} className="link">{p.documentTitle ?? "Document"}</Link>{p.page ? ` · p. ${p.page}` : ""} · confiance {Math.round(p.confidence * 100)} %</div></li>) : null; })}</ul></>) : <div className="text-ink-3 mt-1">Aucune proposition officielle ingérée ne permet de situer ce parti sur cet énoncé.</div>}
77	77	</div>); })}
78	78	</div>
79	79	)}
		`@@ -105,7 +105,7 @@ export function Compass({ data }: { data: CompassData }) {`
105	105	</Card>
106	106	<div className="space-y-3">
107	107	<Card><div className="eyebrow mb-2">Progression par axe</div><div className="space-y-2">{Object.entries(data.axes).map(([axis, a]) => { const n = qs.filter((x) => x.axis === axis).length; return (<div key={axis} className="text-[12.5px]"><div className="flex justify-between"><span>{a.label}</span><span className="num text-ink-3">{byAxis[axis] ?? 0}/{n}</span></div><div className="h-[4px] bg-surface-3 rounded-full mt-1 overflow-hidden"><div className="h-full bg-accent" style={{ width: `${((byAxis[axis] ?? 0) / n) * 100}%` }} /></div></div>); })}</div></Card>
108		− <Card><div className="eyebrow mb-2">Couverture documentaire</div><div className="space-y-1.5 text-[12.5px]">{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => (<div key={id} className="flex items-center justify-between"><span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5"><span className="w-2 h-2 rounded-full" style={{ background: partyColor(id) }} />{partyLabel(id)}</span><span className="num text-ink-2">{data.coverage[id]?.positions ?? 0} / {data.coverage[id]?.total ?? total} positions</span></div>))}</div><p className="text-[11.5px] text-ink-3 mt-2">Positions extraites des documents officiels ; sans document, pas de position. <Link href="/documents" className="link">Bibliothèque →</Link></p></Card>
	108	+ <Card><div className="eyebrow mb-2">Couverture documentaire</div><div className="space-y-1.5 text-[12.5px]">{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => (<div key={id} className="flex items-center justify-between"><span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5"><span className="w-2 h-2 rounded-full" style={{ background: partyVar(id) }} />{partyLabel(id)}</span><span className="num text-ink-2">{data.coverage[id]?.positions ?? 0} / {data.coverage[id]?.total ?? total} positions</span></div>))}</div><p className="text-[11.5px] text-ink-3 mt-2">Positions extraites des documents officiels ; sans document, pas de position. <Link href="/documents" className="link">Bibliothèque →</Link></p></Card>
109	109	<Card><div className="eyebrow mb-1">Grille de réponse</div><div className="grid grid-cols-8 gap-1 mt-2">{qs.map((x, i) => (<button key={x.id} onClick={() => setIdx(i)} aria-label={`Énoncé ${i + 1}`} className={cls("h-6 rounded-[4px] text-[10px] num", answers[x.id] !== undefined ? "bg-brand text-white" : i === idx ? "bg-accent-soft text-accent" : "bg-surface-2 text-ink-3")}>{i + 1}</button>))}</div></Card>
110	110	<div className="text-[11.5px] text-ink-3 px-1">{prob(answered / total)} des énoncés répondus. Minimum 5 pour un résultat.</div>
111	111	</div>

modified web/src/components/forecast-blocks.tsx +125 −83

		`@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@`
1	1	import Link from "next/link";
2	2	import type { Forecast, Poll, RidingListItem } from "@/lib/api";
3	3	import { cls, dateShort, dateTimeFr, delta, int, pct, prob, ratingLabel } from "@/lib/format";
4		−import { PARTY_IDS, party, partyColor, partyLabel, partyName, sortParties } from "@/lib/parties";
5		−import { SeatDistribution } from "./charts";
	4	+import { PARTY_IDS, party, partyAlpha, partyLabel, partyName, partyVar, sortParties } from "@/lib/parties";
	5	+import { DotComparison, SeatDistribution, SeatWaffle } from "./charts";
6	6	import { PartyBadge, PartyDot, PartyLogo } from "./party";
7	7	import { Badge, Card, Metric, MetricDelta, ProbabilityBar, SectionHeader, SourceBadge } from "./ui";
8	8
		`@@ -19,17 +19,17 @@ export function SeatProjectionTable({ f, className }: { f: Forecast; className?:`
19	19	{rows.map(([id, v]) => (
20	20	<tr key={id}>
21	21	<td><Link href={`/partis/${id}`} className="inline-flex items-center gap-2.5"><PartyLogo id={id} height={18} /><span className="font-semibold">{partyLabel(id)}</span></Link></td>
22		− <td className="r num text-[18px] font-bold" style={{ color: partyColor(id) }}>{v.seatsMedian}</td>
23		− <td className="r num">{v.seats80[0]}–{v.seats80[1]}</td>
24		− <td className="r num text-ink-2">{v.seats95[0]}–{v.seats95[1]}</td>
	22	+ <td className="r figure text-[22px]" style={{ color: partyVar(id) }}>{v.seatsMedian}</td>
	23	+ <td className="r num mono">{v.seats80[0]}–{v.seats80[1]}</td>
	24	+ <td className="r num mono text-ink-2">{v.seats95[0]}–{v.seats95[1]}</td>
25	25	<td className="r num font-semibold">{prob(v.pMostSeats)}</td>
26	26	<td className="r num font-semibold">{prob(v.pMajority)}</td>
27		− <td>{v.seatDistribution && <SeatDistribution dist={v.seatDistribution} color={partyColor(id)} majority={maj} median={v.seatsMedian} lo80={v.seats80[0]} hi80={v.seats80[1]} lo95={v.seats95[0]} hi95={v.seats95[1]} height={44} total={f.summary.seats_total} />}</td>
	27	+ <td>{v.seatDistribution && <SeatDistribution dist={v.seatDistribution} color={partyVar(id)} majority={maj} median={v.seatsMedian} lo80={v.seats80[0]} hi80={v.seats80[1]} lo95={v.seats95[0]} hi95={v.seats95[1]} height={44} total={f.summary.seats_total} />}</td>
28	28	</tr>
29	29	))}
30	30	</tbody>
31	31	</table>
32		− <p className="text-[12px] text-ink-3 mt-2">Médiane des {int(f.nSimulations)} simulations ; intervalles = percentiles 10–90 et 2,5–97,5. « Autres » n'est jamais déclaré gagnant dans la version 1 du modèle.</p>
	32	+ <p className="text-[12px] text-ink-3 mt-2">Médiane pondérée des {int(f.nSimulations)} simulations ; intervalles = percentiles 10–90 et 2,5–97,5. « Autres » n'est jamais déclaré gagnant.</p>
33	33	</div>
34	34	);
35	35	}
		`@@ -41,14 +41,14 @@ export function PopularVoteTable({ f, className }: { f: Forecast; className?: st`
41	41	<div className={cls("space-y-2.5", className)}>
42	42	{rows.map(([id, v]) => (
43	43	<div key={id} className="grid grid-cols-[52px_1fr_auto] items-center gap-3">
44		− <span className="font-semibold num text-[13.5px]" style={{ color: partyColor(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</span>
45		− <div className="relative h-[16px] bg-surface-3 rounded-[4px] overflow-hidden">
46		− <div className="absolute inset-y-0 rounded-[4px]" style={{ left: `${(v.vote95[0] / 50) * 100}%`, width: `${((v.vote95[1] - v.vote95[0]) / 50) * 100}%`, background: partyColor(id), opacity: 0.15 }} />
47		− <div className="absolute inset-y-0 rounded-[4px]" style={{ left: `${(v.vote80[0] / 50) * 100}%`, width: `${((v.vote80[1] - v.vote80[0]) / 50) * 100}%`, background: partyColor(id), opacity: 0.3 }} />
	44	+ <span className="font-semibold num text-[13.5px] inline-flex items-center gap-1.5"><span className="w-2 h-2 rounded-full" style={{ background: partyVar(id) }} />{partyLabel(id)}</span>
	45	+ <div className="relative h-[14px] bg-surface-3 rounded-[4px] overflow-hidden">
	46	+ <div className="absolute inset-y-0 rounded-[4px]" style={{ left: `${(v.vote95[0] / 50) * 100}%`, width: `${((v.vote95[1] - v.vote95[0]) / 50) * 100}%`, background: partyAlpha(id, 0.15) }} />
	47	+ <div className="absolute inset-y-0 rounded-[4px]" style={{ left: `${(v.vote80[0] / 50) * 100}%`, width: `${((v.vote80[1] - v.vote80[0]) / 50) * 100}%`, background: partyAlpha(id, 0.35) }} />
48	48	<div className="absolute inset-y-0 w-[2px] bg-ink" style={{ left: `${(v.voteMean / 50) * 100}%` }} />
49	49	</div>
50	50	<div className="flex items-baseline gap-2 num">
51		− <span className="font-bold text-[16px] w-[58px] text-right">{v.voteMean.toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")}</span>
	51	+ <span className="font-bold text-[16px] w-[58px] text-right mono">{v.voteMean.toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")}</span>
52	52	{ch?.[id] ? <MetricDelta value={ch[id].vote} /> : <span className="w-[54px]" />}
53	53	</div>
54	54	</div>
		`@@ -65,12 +65,12 @@ export function MajorityPanel({ f }: { f: Forecast }) {`
65	65	{rows.map(([id, v]) => (
66	66	<div key={id}>
67	67	<div className="flex items-baseline justify-between mb-1 text-[13px]"><span className="font-semibold inline-flex items-center gap-1.5"><PartyDot id={id} />{partyName(id)}</span><span className="text-ink-2">plus de sièges {prob(v.pMostSeats)}</span></div>
68		− <ProbabilityBar p={v.pMajority} color={partyColor(id)} label={`majorité ${partyLabel(id)}`} height={12} />
	68	+ <ProbabilityBar p={v.pMajority} color={partyVar(id)} label={`majorité ${partyLabel(id)}`} height={12} />
69	69	</div>
70	70	))}
71	71	<div>
72	72	<div className="flex items-baseline justify-between mb-1 text-[13px]"><span className="font-semibold">Aucune majorité (gouvernement minoritaire)</span></div>
73		− <ProbabilityBar p={f.summary.p_minority} color="#111827" label="minoritaire" height={12} />
	73	+ <ProbabilityBar p={f.summary.p_minority} color="var(--text)" label="minoritaire" height={12} />
74	74	</div>
75	75	</div>
76	76	);
		`@@ -82,21 +82,26 @@ export function WhatChanged({ f, ridingNames }: { f: Forecast; ridingNames?: Rec`
82	82	const leader = f.summary.leader;
83	83	const ch = d.changes[leader];
84	84	const biggest = Object.entries(d.changes).sort((a, b) => Math.abs(b[1].p_majority) - Math.abs(a[1].p_majority))[0];
85		− const cause = d.causes[0];
86	85	return (
87		− <div className="grid md:grid-cols-[1fr_1.2fr] gap-6">
	86	+ <div className="grid md:grid-cols-[1fr_1.2fr] gap-8">
88	87	<div>
89	88	<div className="eyebrow">Majorité {partyLabel(leader)}</div>
90		− <div className="num display text-[40px] mt-1">
91		− <span className="text-ink-3">{prob(f.parties[leader].pMajority - (ch?.p_majority ?? 0))}</span> <span className="text-ink-3 text-[24px]">→</span> {prob(f.parties[leader].pMajority)}
	89	+ <div className="figure text-[44px] mt-2">
	90	+ <span className="text-ink-3">{prob(f.parties[leader].pMajority - (ch?.p_majority ?? 0))}</span> <span className="text-ink-3 text-[24px] serif">→</span> {prob(f.parties[leader].pMajority)}
92	91	</div>
93		− <div className="mt-3 text-[13.5px]">
94		− <div className="eyebrow mb-1">Cause principale</div>
95		− {cause?.kind === "new_polls" ? (
96		− <div>Nouveau{(cause.detail as string[]).length > 1 ? "x" : ""} sondage{(cause.detail as string[]).length > 1 ? "s" : ""} : {(cause.detail as string[]).map((id) => <Link key={id} href={`/sondages/${id}`} className="link mr-2">{id}</Link>)}</div>
97		− ) : <div className="text-ink-2">{String(cause?.detail ?? "—")}</div>}
	92	+ <div className="mt-4 text-[13.5px]">
	93	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-1.5">Causes identifiées</div>
	94	+ <ul className="space-y-1">
	95	+ {d.causes.map((cause, i) => (
	96	+ <li key={i}>
	97	+ {cause.kind === "new_polls" ? <span>Nouveau{(cause.detail as string[]).length > 1 ? "x" : ""} sondage{(cause.detail as string[]).length > 1 ? "s" : ""} : {(cause.detail as string[]).map((id) => <Link key={id} href={`/sondages/${id}`} className="link mr-2">{id}</Link>)}</span>
	98	+ : cause.kind === "markets" ? <span>Marchés de prédiction : {Object.entries(cause.detail as unknown as Record<string, number>).map(([p, v]) => `${partyLabel(p)} ${delta(v * 100, 0, " pt")}`).join(" · ")}</span>
	99	+ : <span className="text-ink-2">{String(cause.detail ?? "—")}</span>}
	100	+ </li>
	101	+ ))}
	102	+ </ul>
98	103	</div>
99		− <div className="text-[12px] text-ink-3 mt-3">Comparé au run précédent{d.previous_at ? ` (${dateTimeFr(d.previous_at)})` : ""}. Les causes listées sont les seules différences d'entrée entre les deux runs ; QC26 n'infère pas de causalité au-delà.</div>
	104	+ <div className="text-[12px] text-ink-3 mt-4">Comparé au run précédent{d.previous_at ? ` (${dateTimeFr(d.previous_at)})` : ""}. Les causes listées sont les seules différences d'entrée entre les deux runs ; QC26 n'infère pas de causalité au-delà.</div>
100	105	</div>
101	106	<div>
102	107	<div className="eyebrow mb-2">Variations par parti</div>
		`@@ -107,8 +112,8 @@ export function WhatChanged({ f, ridingNames }: { f: Forecast; ridingNames?: Rec`
107	112	))}
108	113	</tbody></table>
109	114	{d.flips.length > 0 && (
110		− <div className="mt-3 text-[13px]">
111		− <div className="eyebrow mb-1">Circonscriptions qui changent de favori</div>
	115	+ <div className="mt-4 text-[13px]">
	116	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-1.5">Circonscriptions qui changent de favori</div>
112	117	<ul className="space-y-1">
113	118	{d.flips.slice(0, 8).map((fl) => (
114	119	<li key={fl.code} className="flex items-center gap-2"><Link href={`/circonscription/${ridingNames?.[fl.code]?.slug ?? fl.code}`} className="link">{ridingNames?.[fl.code]?.name ?? fl.code}</Link><PartyBadge id={fl.from} size="sm" /> → <PartyBadge id={fl.to} size="sm" /> <span className="num text-ink-3">{prob(fl.p)}</span></li>
		`@@ -116,7 +121,7 @@ export function WhatChanged({ f, ridingNames }: { f: Forecast; ridingNames?: Rec`
116	121	</ul>
117	122	</div>
118	123	)}
119		− {biggest && biggest[0] !== leader && <div className="text-[12.5px] text-ink-2 mt-2">Autre mouvement notable : {partyLabel(biggest[0])} P(majorité) {delta(biggest[1].p_majority * 100, 0, " pt")}.</div>}
	124	+ {biggest && biggest[0] !== leader && <div className="text-[12.5px] text-ink-2 mt-3">Autre mouvement notable : {partyLabel(biggest[0])} P(majorité) {delta(biggest[1].p_majority * 100, 0, " pt")}.</div>}
120	125	</div>
121	126	</div>
122	127	);
		`@@ -127,17 +132,17 @@ export function LatestPolls({ polls, limit = 6, compact = false }: { polls: Poll`
127	132	return (
128	133	<div className="overflow-x-auto">
129	134	<table className="data-table min-w-[560px]">
130		− <thead><tr><th>Firme</th><th>Terrain</th><th className="r">n</th>{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <th key={id} className="r" style={{ color: partyColor(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</th>)}{!compact && <th className="r">Poids</th>}<th></th></tr></thead>
	135	+ <thead><tr><th>Firme</th><th>Terrain</th><th className="r">n</th>{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <th key={id} className="r"><span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1"><span className="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full" style={{ background: partyVar(id) }} />{partyLabel(id)}</span></th>)}{!compact && <th className="r">Poids</th>}<th></th></tr></thead>
131	136	<tbody>
132	137	{rows.map((p) => {
133	138	const lead = Object.entries(p.results).filter(([k]) => k !== "aut").sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1])[0]?.[0];
134	139	return (
135	140	<tr key={p.id}>
136		− <td><Link href={`/sondages/${p.id}`} className="font-semibold hover:underline">{p.pollster.name}</Link>{p.sponsor && <span className="text-ink-3 text-[12px]"> · {p.sponsor}</span>}{!p.validated && <span className="ml-1.5 text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wide text-warn font-semibold" title="Document original en cours de vérification">index</span>}</td>
	141	+ <td><Link href={`/sondages/${p.id}`} className="font-semibold hover:underline">{p.pollster.name}</Link>{p.sponsor && <span className="text-ink-3 text-[12px]"> · {p.sponsor}</span>}{!p.validated && <span className="ml-1.5 text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wide text-warn font-semibold mono" title="Document original en cours de vérification">index</span>}</td>
137	142	<td className="num whitespace-nowrap">{p.fieldworkStart ? `${dateShort(p.fieldworkStart)} – ` : ""}{dateShort(p.fieldworkEnd)}</td>
138	143	<td className="r num">{int(p.sampleSize)}</td>
139		− {PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <td key={id} className={cls("r num", id === lead && "font-bold")}>{p.results[id]?.toFixed(0) ?? "—"}</td>)}
140		− {!compact && <td className="r num text-ink-2">{p.weight ? p.weight.weight.toFixed(2) : "—"}</td>}
	144	+ {PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <td key={id} className={cls("r num mono", id === lead && "font-bold")}>{p.results[id]?.toFixed(0) ?? "—"}</td>)}
	145	+ {!compact && <td className="r num text-ink-2 mono">{p.weight ? p.weight.weight.toFixed(2) : "—"}</td>}
141	146	<td className="r"><SourceBadge source={{ name: p.document ? "Document original (PDF de la firme)" : "Index tiers en attente du document original", url: p.sourceUrl, archiveUrl: p.document?.archiveUrl, retrievedAt: p.document?.downloadedAt, page: p.resultsPage, tier: p.sourceTier === "primary" ? "Primaire (firme)" : "Secondaire (index)", detail: p.methodology ?? undefined }} /></td>
142	147	</tr>
143	148	);
		`@@ -154,12 +159,12 @@ export function Battlegrounds({ ridings, codes, limit = 10 }: { ridings: RidingL`
154	159	return (
155	160	<div className="grid sm:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-5 gap-3">
156	161	{rows.map((r) => (
157		− <Link key={r.code} href={`/circonscription/${r.slug}`} className="card p-3.5 hover:shadow-md transition-shadow block">
	162	+ <Link key={r.code} href={`/circonscription/${r.slug}`} className="card card-hover p-4 block" style={{ borderTop: `3px solid ${partyVar(r.forecast!.favorite)}` }}>
158	163	<div className="flex items-start justify-between gap-2"><div className="font-semibold text-[14px] leading-tight">{r.name}</div><Badge tone={r.forecast!.rating === "tossup" ? "warn" : "neutral"}>{ratingLabel(r.forecast!.rating)}</Badge></div>
159	164	<div className="text-[11.5px] text-ink-3 mt-0.5">{r.regionName}</div>
160	165	<div className="mt-3 space-y-1">
161	166	{Object.entries(r.forecast!.pWin).filter(([k]) => k !== "aut").sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1]).slice(0, 3).map(([id, p]) => (
162		− <div key={id} className="flex items-center gap-2 text-[12.5px]"><span className="w-8 font-semibold num" style={{ color: partyColor(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</span><div className="flex-1 h-[6px] rounded-full bg-surface-3 overflow-hidden"><div className="h-full" style={{ width: `${p * 100}%`, background: partyColor(id) }} /></div><span className="num w-10 text-right">{prob(p)}</span></div>
	167	+ <div key={id} className="flex items-center gap-2 text-[12.5px]"><span className="w-8 font-semibold num" style={{ color: partyVar(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</span><div className="flex-1 h-[6px] rounded-full bg-surface-3 overflow-hidden"><div className="h-full" style={{ width: `${p * 100}%`, background: partyVar(id) }} /></div><span className="num w-10 text-right mono">{prob(p)}</span></div>
163	168	))}
164	169	</div>
165	170	</Link>
		`@@ -176,12 +181,12 @@ export function RegionalGrid({ regions }: { regions: { id: string; name: string;`
176	181	const top = Object.entries(g.voteNow).filter(([k]) => k !== "aut").sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1]).slice(0, 4);
177	182	return (
178	183	<div key={g.id} className="card p-4">
179		− <div className="flex items-baseline justify-between"><div className="font-semibold">{g.name}</div><div className="text-[12px] text-ink-3 num">{g.ridings} circ.</div></div>
180		− <div className="flex h-[8px] rounded-full overflow-hidden mt-2 bg-surface-3">{favs.map(([id, n]) => <div key={id} style={{ width: `${(n / g.ridings) * 100}%`, background: partyColor(id) }} title={`${partyLabel(id)} ${n}`} />)}</div>
181		− <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-x-3 mt-1.5 text-[12px] num">{favs.map(([id, n]) => <span key={id}><b style={{ color: partyColor(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</b> {n}</span>)}</div>
	184	+ <div className="flex items-baseline justify-between"><div className="font-semibold">{g.name}</div><div className="text-[12px] text-ink-3 num mono">{g.ridings} circ.</div></div>
	185	+ <div className="flex gap-[2px] h-[8px] rounded-full overflow-hidden mt-2 bg-surface-3">{favs.map(([id, n]) => <div key={id} style={{ width: `${(n / g.ridings) * 100}%`, background: partyVar(id) }} title={`${partyLabel(id)} ${n}`} />)}</div>
	186	+ <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-x-3 mt-1.5 text-[12px] num">{favs.map(([id, n]) => <span key={id}><b style={{ color: partyVar(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</b> {n}</span>)}</div>
182	187	<div className="mt-3 space-y-1">
183	188	{top.map(([id, v]) => (
184		− <div key={id} className="grid grid-cols-[34px_1fr_44px_54px] items-center gap-2 text-[12px]"><span className="font-semibold num" style={{ color: partyColor(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</span><div className="h-[5px] rounded-full bg-surface-3 overflow-hidden"><div className="h-full" style={{ width: `${v * 2}%`, background: partyColor(id) }} /></div><span className="num text-right font-semibold">{v.toFixed(0)} %</span><span className="num text-right text-ink-3">{delta(v - (g.vote2022[id] ?? 0), 0, " pt")}</span></div>
	189	+ <div key={id} className="grid grid-cols-[34px_1fr_44px_54px] items-center gap-2 text-[12px]"><span className="font-semibold num" style={{ color: partyVar(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</span><div className="h-[5px] rounded-full bg-surface-3 overflow-hidden"><div className="h-full" style={{ width: `${v * 2}%`, background: partyVar(id) }} /></div><span className="num text-right font-semibold mono">{v.toFixed(0)} %</span><span className="num text-right text-ink-3 mono">{delta(v - (g.vote2022[id] ?? 0), 0, " pt")}</span></div>
185	190	))}
186	191	</div>
187	192	<div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3 mt-2">Vote projeté (moyenne des circonscriptions) · variation vs 2022 transposé</div>
		`@@ -192,66 +197,103 @@ export function RegionalGrid({ regions }: { regions: { id: string; name: string;`
192	197	);
193	198	}
194	199
	200	+// ------------------------------------------------------------------- HERO
195	201	export function HeroForecast({ f, meta }: { f: Forecast; meta: { seatsTotal: number; majority: number; daysToElection: number } }) {
196	202	const leader = f.summary.leader;
197	203	const lp = f.parties[leader];
198	204	const rows = sortParties(f.parties, (v) => v.seatsMean);
199	205	const ch = f.diff?.changes?.[leader];
	206	+ const seats = Object.fromEntries(Object.entries(f.parties).map(([k, v]) => [k, v.seatsMedian]));
	207	+ const comp = f.summary.components;
	208	+ const pollsOnly = comp?.pollsOnly?.parties?.[leader];
	209	+ const nSources = comp ? [comp.fundamentals?.enabled, comp.momentum?.enabled, comp.markets?.enabled, comp.byelections?.enabled].filter(Boolean).length : 0;
200	210	return (
201		− <section className="grid lg:grid-cols-[1.1fr_1fr] gap-6 lg:gap-10 items-stretch">
202		− <div className="card card-lg p-6 md:p-8 flex flex-col">
203		− <div className="flex items-center justify-between flex-wrap gap-2">
204		− <div className="eyebrow">QC26 Forecast · Québec · 5 octobre 2026</div>
205		− <Badge tone="accent">Projection · Modèle {f.modelVersion}</Badge>
206		− </div>
207		− <div className="mt-6 flex items-end gap-6 flex-wrap">
208		− <div>
209		− <div className="text-[13px] text-ink-2 mb-1">Projection actuelle</div>
210		− <div className="flex items-center gap-3"><PartyLogo id={leader} height={26} /><span className="text-[15px] font-semibold">{partyName(leader)}</span></div>
211		− <div className="num display text-[84px] md:text-[112px] mt-1" style={{ color: partyColor(leader) }}>{lp.seatsMedian}</div>
212		− <div className="text-[14px] text-ink-2 -mt-2">sièges sur {meta.seatsTotal} · intervalle 80 % <span className="num font-semibold text-ink">{lp.seats80[0]}–{lp.seats80[1]}</span></div>
	211	+ <section className="relative overflow-hidden rounded-[var(--radius-lg)] border border-border card hero-glow p-6 md:p-10">
	212	+ <div className="grid lg:grid-cols-[1.05fr_1fr] gap-10 items-start">
	213	+ <div className="fade-up">
	214	+ <div className="flex items-center gap-2 flex-wrap">
	215	+ <span className="eyebrow eyebrow-accent">Prévision QC26</span>
	216	+ <span className="text-ink-3 text-[11px] mono">·</span>
	217	+ <span className="eyebrow">Modèle {f.modelVersion} · run #{f.id}</span>
213	218	</div>
214		− <div className="ml-auto grid grid-cols-2 gap-x-8 gap-y-4">
215		− <Metric label="Majorité" value={prob(lp.pMajority)} size="lg" delta={ch ? <MetricDelta value={ch.p_majority * 100} digits={0} suffix=" pt" /> : undefined} sub={`seuil ${meta.majority}`} />
216		− <Metric label="Plus de sièges" value={prob(lp.pMostSeats)} size="lg" delta={ch ? <MetricDelta value={ch.p_most_seats * 100} digits={0} suffix=" pt" /> : undefined} />
217		− <Metric label="Vote populaire" value={pct(lp.voteMean)} size="md" delta={ch ? <MetricDelta value={ch.vote} /> : undefined} sub={`± ${lp.voteSd.toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")}`} />
218		− <Metric label="Minoritaire" value={prob(f.summary.p_minority)} size="md" sub="aucun parti à 64" />
	219	+ <h1 className="display text-[36px] md:text-[54px] mt-4 max-w-[14ch]">
	220	+ Le <span style={{ color: partyVar(leader) }}>{partyLabel(leader)}</span> favori, {lp.pMajority >= 0.5 ? "une majorité plus probable qu'improbable" : lp.pMajority >= 0.3 ? "la majorité en jeu" : "un gouvernement minoritaire probable"}.
	221	+ </h1>
	222	+ <div className="mt-6 flex items-end gap-8 flex-wrap">
	223	+ <div>
	224	+ <div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-[13px] text-ink-2"><PartyLogo id={leader} height={20} /> {partyName(leader)}</div>
	225	+ <div className="figure text-[96px] md:text-[136px] mt-1" style={{ color: partyVar(leader) }}>{lp.seatsMedian}</div>
	226	+ <div className="text-[14px] text-ink-2 -mt-1">sièges sur {meta.seatsTotal} · 80 % : <span className="mono font-semibold text-ink">{lp.seats80[0]}–{lp.seats80[1]}</span></div>
	227	+ </div>
	228	+ <div className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-x-8 gap-y-5 mb-2">
	229	+ <Metric label="Majorité" value={prob(lp.pMajority)} size="lg" delta={ch ? <MetricDelta value={ch.p_majority * 100} digits={0} suffix=" pt" /> : undefined} sub={`seuil ${meta.majority}`} />
	230	+ <Metric label="Plus de sièges" value={prob(lp.pMostSeats)} size="lg" delta={ch ? <MetricDelta value={ch.p_most_seats * 100} digits={0} suffix=" pt" /> : undefined} />
	231	+ <Metric label="Vote populaire" value={pct(lp.voteMean)} size="md" delta={ch ? <MetricDelta value={ch.vote} /> : undefined} sub={`± ${lp.voteSd.toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")}`} />
	232	+ <Metric label="Minoritaire" value={prob(f.summary.p_minority)} size="md" sub={`aucun parti à ${meta.majority}`} />
	233	+ </div>
	234	+ </div>
	235	+ <div className="mt-8 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-5 gap-y-2 text-[12.5px] text-ink-3">
	236	+ <span className="num">Mis à jour {dateTimeFr(f.completedAt)}</span>
	237	+ <span className="num">{f.pollCount} sondages · {int(f.nSimulations)} simulations{comp?.ess ? ` · ESS ${int(comp.ess)}` : ""}</span>
	238	+ {nSources > 0 && <Link href="/signaux" className="link">{nSources} source{nSources > 1 ? "s" : ""} au-delà des sondages →</Link>}
	239	+ <Link href="/methodologie" className="link">Méthodologie</Link>
219	240	</div>
220	241	</div>
221		− <div className="mt-auto pt-6 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-5 gap-y-2 text-[12.5px] text-ink-3">
222		− <span className="num">Dernière mise à jour {dateTimeFr(f.completedAt)}</span>
223		− <span className="num">{f.pollCount} sondages · {int(f.nSimulations)} simulations</span>
224		− <span className="num">Dernier terrain {dateShort(f.summary.latest_poll)}</span>
225		− <Link href="/methodologie" className="link">Méthodologie</Link>
226		− </div>
227		− </div>
228		− <div className="card card-lg p-6 md:p-8">
229		− <div className="eyebrow mb-4">Sièges projetés · médiane et intervalle 80 %</div>
230		− <div className="space-y-4">
231		− {rows.map(([id, v]) => (
232		− <div key={id}>
233		− <div className="flex items-baseline justify-between text-[13.5px] mb-1">
234		− <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-2"><PartyLogo id={id} height={16} /><span className="font-semibold">{partyLabel(id)}</span><span className="text-ink-3 hidden sm:inline">{party(id)?.officialName}</span></span>
235		− <span className="num"><b className="text-[18px]">{v.seatsMedian}</b> <span className="text-ink-3">{v.seats80[0]}–{v.seats80[1]}</span></span>
236		− </div>
237		− <div className="relative h-[14px] rounded-[4px] bg-surface-3 overflow-hidden">
238		− <div className="absolute inset-y-0 rounded-[4px]" style={{ left: `${(v.seats95[0] / meta.seatsTotal) * 100}%`, width: `${((v.seats95[1] - v.seats95[0]) / meta.seatsTotal) * 100}%`, background: partyColor(id), opacity: 0.16 }} />
239		− <div className="absolute inset-y-0 rounded-[4px]" style={{ left: `${(v.seats80[0] / meta.seatsTotal) * 100}%`, width: `${((v.seats80[1] - v.seats80[0]) / meta.seatsTotal) * 100}%`, background: partyColor(id), opacity: 0.45 }} />
240		− <div className="absolute inset-y-0 w-[3px] rounded-sm" style={{ left: `calc(${(v.seatsMedian / meta.seatsTotal) * 100}% - 1px)`, background: partyColor(id) }} />
241		− <div className="absolute inset-y-0 w-[1.5px] bg-ink" style={{ left: `${(meta.majority / meta.seatsTotal) * 100}%` }} />
	242	+ <div className="fade-up fade-up-2">
	243	+ <div className="flex items-center justify-between mb-3">
	244	+ <div className="eyebrow">Assemblée nationale · médiane projetée</div>
	245	+ <div className="text-[11px] mono text-ink-3">{meta.seatsTotal} sièges · majorité {meta.majority}</div>
	246	+ </div>
	247	+ <SeatWaffle seats={seats} total={meta.seatsTotal} majority={meta.majority} cols={16} />
	248	+ <div className="mt-5 space-y-3">
	249	+ {rows.map(([id, v]) => (
	250	+ <div key={id}>
	251	+ <div className="flex items-baseline justify-between text-[13px] mb-1">
	252	+ <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-2"><span className="w-2.5 h-2.5 rounded-[3px]" style={{ background: partyVar(id) }} /><span className="font-semibold">{partyLabel(id)}</span><span className="text-ink-3 hidden sm:inline">{party(id)?.officialName}</span></span>
	253	+ <span className="num"><b className="mono text-[16px]">{v.seatsMedian}</b> <span className="text-ink-3 mono text-[12px]">{v.seats80[0]}–{v.seats80[1]}</span>{pollsOnly && comp?.pollsOnly?.parties?.[id] && Math.abs(comp.pollsOnly.parties[id].seats - v.seatsMedian) >= 2 ? <span className="text-ink-3 text-[11px] ml-2" title="Sondages seuls">(sondages seuls {comp.pollsOnly.parties[id].seats})</span> : null}</span>
	254	+ </div>
	255	+ <div className="relative h-[10px] rounded-[4px] bg-surface-3 overflow-hidden">
	256	+ <div className="absolute inset-y-0 rounded-[4px]" style={{ left: `${(v.seats95[0] / meta.seatsTotal) * 100}%`, width: `${((v.seats95[1] - v.seats95[0]) / meta.seatsTotal) * 100}%`, background: partyAlpha(id, 0.18) }} />
	257	+ <div className="absolute inset-y-0 rounded-[4px]" style={{ left: `${(v.seats80[0] / meta.seatsTotal) * 100}%`, width: `${((v.seats80[1] - v.seats80[0]) / meta.seatsTotal) * 100}%`, background: partyAlpha(id, 0.5) }} />
	258	+ <div className="absolute inset-y-0 w-[3px] rounded-sm" style={{ left: `calc(${(v.seatsMedian / meta.seatsTotal) * 100}% - 1px)`, background: partyVar(id) }} />
	259	+ <div className="absolute inset-y-0 w-[1.5px] bg-ink" style={{ left: `${(meta.majority / meta.seatsTotal) * 100}%` }} />
	260	+ </div>
242	261	</div>
243		− </div>
244		− ))}
245		− </div>
246		− <div className="flex justify-between text-[11px] text-ink-3 num mt-2"><span>0</span><span className="font-bold text-ink">{meta.majority} · majorité</span><span>{meta.seatsTotal}</span></div>
247		− <div className="mt-5 grid grid-cols-3 gap-3 text-center">
248		− {rows.slice(0, 3).map(([id, v]) => (
249		− <div key={id} className="rounded-[8px] surface-2 p-2.5"><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3">P(majorité)</div><div className="num font-bold text-[18px]" style={{ color: partyColor(id) }}>{prob(v.pMajority)}</div><div className="text-[11px] font-semibold">{partyLabel(id)}</div></div>
250		− ))}
	262	+ ))}
	263	+ </div>
	264	+ <div className="flex justify-between text-[11px] text-ink-3 mono mt-2"><span>0</span><span className="font-bold text-ink">{meta.majority} · majorité</span><span>{meta.seatsTotal}</span></div>
251	265	</div>
252	266	</div>
253	267	</section>
254	268	);
255	269	}
256	270
	271	+// ------------------------------------------------------ BEYOND POLLS (accueil / prévision)
	272	+export function ComponentsCompare({ f, compact = false }: { f: Forecast; compact?: boolean }) {
	273	+ const comp = f.summary.components;
	274	+ if (!comp) return null;
	275	+ const ids = PARTY_IDS.filter((id) => (f.parties[id]?.pMostSeats ?? 0) > 0.005 \|\| (comp.pollsOnly.parties[id]?.p_most_seats ?? 0) > 0.005 \|\| (comp.markets.mostSeatsMarket?.[id] ?? 0) > 0.005);
	276	+ const rows = ids.map((id) => ({ id, label: partyLabel(id), values: { polls: comp.pollsOnly.parties[id]?.p_most_seats, market: comp.markets.enabled ? comp.markets.mostSeatsMarket?.[id] : undefined, ensemble: f.parties[id]?.pMostSeats } }));
	277	+ const series = [{ key: "polls", label: "Sondages seuls", shape: "ring" as const }, ...(comp.markets.enabled ? [{ key: "market", label: "Marchés (Polymarket)", shape: "diamond" as const }] : []), { key: "ensemble", label: "Ensemble QC26", shape: "dot" as const }];
	278	+ const leader = f.summary.leader;
	279	+ return (
	280	+ <div className={cls("grid gap-6", !compact && "lg:grid-cols-[1.2fr_1fr]")}>
	281	+ <div>
	282	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-2">Probabilité d'obtenir le plus de sièges</div>
	283	+ <DotComparison rows={rows} series={series} />
	284	+ </div>
	285	+ <div className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-3 content-start">
	286	+ <div className="inset p-3"><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3">Majorité {partyLabel(leader)} · sondages seuls</div><div className="figure text-[26px] mt-1">{prob(comp.pollsOnly.parties[leader]?.p_majority)}</div></div>
	287	+ <div className="inset p-3"><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3">Majorité {partyLabel(leader)} · marchés</div><div className="figure text-[26px] mt-1">{comp.markets.enabled && comp.markets.majorityMarket?.[leader] !== undefined ? prob(comp.markets.majorityMarket[leader]) : "—"}</div></div>
	288	+ <div className="inset p-3"><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3">Majorité {partyLabel(leader)} · ensemble</div><div className="figure text-[26px] mt-1" style={{ color: partyVar(leader) }}>{prob(f.parties[leader].pMajority)}</div></div>
	289	+ <div className="inset p-3"><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3">Poids des marchés</div><div className="figure text-[26px] mt-1">{comp.markets.enabled ? `${Math.round(comp.markets.weight * 100)} %` : "0 %"}</div></div>
	290	+ <div className="col-span-2 text-[12px] text-ink-3 leading-relaxed">
	291	+ Fondamentaux {comp.fundamentals.enabled ? `poids ${Math.round(comp.fundamentals.weight * 100)} % (satisfaction ${String(comp.fundamentals.satisfaction).replace(".", ",")} %)` : "inactifs"} · momentum {comp.momentum.enabled ? Object.entries(comp.momentum.shiftPp).filter(([k]) => k !== "aut").map(([k, v]) => `${partyLabel(k)} ${delta(v, 1)}`).join(", ") : "inactif"} · partielles {comp.byelections.enabled ? `${comp.byelections.ridings.length} circonscriptions` : "aucune"}.
	292	+ {!compact && <> <Link href="/signaux" className="link">Voir tous les signaux →</Link></>}
	293	+ </div>
	294	+ </div>
	295	+ </div>
	296	+ );
	297	+}
	298	+
257	299	export { SectionHeader, Card };

modified web/src/components/forecast-history.tsx +3 −3

		`@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@`
2	2
3	3	import { useEffect, useMemo, useState } from "react";
4	4	import { dateFr, dateTimeFr, prob } from "@/lib/format";
5		−import { PARTY_IDS, partyColor, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
	5	+import { PARTY_IDS, partyVar, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
6	6	import { SeatMeter } from "./charts";
7	7
8	8	interface Run { id: number; date: string; completedAt: string \| null; modelVersion: string; pollCount: number; parties: Record<string, { vote: number; seats: number; seats80: [number, number]; pMajority: number; pMostSeats: number }>; pMinority: number }
		`@@ -30,7 +30,7 @@ export function ForecastHistory({ majority, total }: { majority: number; total:`
30	30	<div className="mt-4"><SeatMeter seats={Object.fromEntries(PARTY_IDS.map((id) => [id, run.parties[id]?.seats ?? 0]))} total={total} majority={majority} /></div>
31	31	<div className="grid grid-cols-2 md:grid-cols-5 gap-2 mt-4">
32	32	{PARTY_IDS.slice().sort((a, b) => (run.parties[b]?.seats ?? 0) - (run.parties[a]?.seats ?? 0)).map((id) => (
33		− <div key={id} className="surface-2 rounded-[8px] p-2.5 text-[12.5px]"><b style={{ color: partyColor(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</b><div className="num mt-1"><b className="text-[18px]">{run.parties[id]?.seats}</b> <span className="text-ink-3">{run.parties[id]?.seats80?.join("–")}</span></div><div className="num text-ink-2">{run.parties[id]?.vote?.toFixed(1)} % · maj. {prob(run.parties[id]?.pMajority)}</div></div>
	33	+ <div key={id} className="surface-2 rounded-[8px] p-2.5 text-[12.5px]"><b style={{ color: partyVar(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</b><div className="num mt-1"><b className="text-[18px]">{run.parties[id]?.seats}</b> <span className="text-ink-3">{run.parties[id]?.seats80?.join("–")}</span></div><div className="num text-ink-2">{run.parties[id]?.vote?.toFixed(1)} % · maj. {prob(run.parties[id]?.pMajority)}</div></div>
34	34	))}
35	35	</div>
36	36	{path && (
		`@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@ export function ForecastHistory({ majority, total }: { majority: number; total:`
38	38	<div className="eyebrow mb-1">P(majorité) par run</div>
39	39	<svg viewBox={`0 0 ${W} ${H}`} className="w-full h-auto" role="img" aria-label="Probabilité de majorité par run">
40	40	{[0, 0.5, 1].map((p) => <line key={p} x1={8} x2={W - 8} y1={6 + (1 - p) * (H - 12)} y2={6 + (1 - p) * (H - 12)} stroke="var(--border)" />)}
41		− {path.map((p) => <path key={p.id} d={p.d} fill="none" stroke={partyColor(p.id)} strokeWidth={2} />)}
	41	+ {path.map((p) => <path key={p.id} d={p.d} fill="none" stroke={partyVar(p.id)} strokeWidth={2} />)}
42	42	<line x1={8 + (i / Math.max(1, runs.length - 1)) * (W - 16)} x2={8 + (i / Math.max(1, runs.length - 1)) * (W - 16)} y1={0} y2={H} stroke="var(--text)" strokeDasharray="3 3" />
43	43	</svg>
44	44	</div>

modified web/src/components/live.tsx +7 −7

		`@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ import Link from "next/link";`
4	4	import { useEffect, useMemo, useRef, useState } from "react";
5	5	import type { Forecast, LiveState, Meta } from "@/lib/api";
6	6	import { cls, dateTimeFr, int, pct, prob, relTime, statusLabel, timeFr } from "@/lib/format";
7		−import { PARTY_IDS, partyColor, partyLabel, partyName } from "@/lib/parties";
	7	+import { PARTY_IDS, partyVar, partyLabel, partyName } from "@/lib/parties";
8	8	import { SeatMeter } from "./charts";
9	9	import { MapSection } from "./map-section";
10	10	import { PartyBadge, PartyDot, PartyLogo } from "./party";
		`@@ -76,15 +76,15 @@ export function LiveHome({ meta, forecast, initial }: { meta: Meta; forecast: Fo`
76	76	<div key={id} className="grid grid-cols-[86px_1fr_auto] items-center gap-3 text-[13.5px]">
77	77	<PartyLogo id={id} height={16} />
78	78	<div className="text-ink-2 num"><b className="text-ink">{seatsNow[id]?.elected ?? 0}</b> élus · <b className="text-ink">{seatsNow[id]?.leading ?? 0}</b> en avance</div>
79		− <div className="num font-bold text-[22px]" style={{ color: partyColor(id) }}>{totalNow(id)}</div>
	79	+ <div className="num font-bold text-[22px]" style={{ color: partyVar(id) }}>{totalNow(id)}</div>
80	80	</div>
81	81	))}
82	82	</div>
83	83	{nc && (
84	84	<div className="mt-5 pt-4 border-t border-border">
85	85	<div className="flex items-baseline justify-between"><div className="eyebrow">Probabilité de majorité {partyLabel(leaderNow)} · Nowcast QC26</div><ProjectionBadge>Nowcast</ProjectionBadge></div>
86		− <div className="num display text-[44px] mt-1" style={{ color: partyColor(leaderNow) }}>{prob(nc.parties[leaderNow]?.p_majority)}</div>
87		− <ProbabilityBar p={nc.parties[leaderNow]?.p_majority ?? 0} color={partyColor(leaderNow)} height={14} showValue={false} />
	86	+ <div className="num display text-[44px] mt-1" style={{ color: partyVar(leaderNow) }}>{prob(nc.parties[leaderNow]?.p_majority)}</div>
	87	+ <ProbabilityBar p={nc.parties[leaderNow]?.p_majority ?? 0} color={partyVar(leaderNow)} height={14} showValue={false} />
88	88	<div className="text-[12px] text-ink-3 mt-1 num">Minoritaire {prob(nc.p_minority)} · couverture {pct(nc.coverage * 100, 0)} · {relTime(nc.ts)}</div>
89	89	</div>
90	90	)}
		`@@ -103,7 +103,7 @@ export function LiveHome({ meta, forecast, initial }: { meta: Meta; forecast: Fo`
103	103	<td className="r num text-ink-2">{forecast.parties[id].seatsMedian} <span className="text-ink-3 text-[11px]">({forecast.parties[id].seats80[0]}–{forecast.parties[id].seats80[1]})</span></td>
104	104	<td className="r num">{seatsNow[id]?.elected ?? 0}</td>
105	105	<td className="r num">{seatsNow[id]?.leading ?? 0}</td>
106		− <td className="r num font-bold text-[16px]" style={{ color: partyColor(id) }}>{totalNow(id)}</td>
	106	+ <td className="r num font-bold text-[16px]" style={{ color: partyVar(id) }}>{totalNow(id)}</td>
107	107	<td className="r num">{nc ? `${nc.parties[id]?.seats_median} ` : "—"}{nc && <span className="text-ink-3 text-[11px]">({nc.parties[id]?.seats80[0]}–{nc.parties[id]?.seats80[1]})</span>}</td>
108	108	<td className="r num">{nc ? prob(nc.parties[id]?.p_majority) : "—"}</td>
109	109	</tr>
		`@@ -143,7 +143,7 @@ export function Ticker({ events, limit = 30 }: { events: LiveEvent[]; limit?: nu`
143	143	{events.slice(0, limit).map((e) => (
144	144	<li key={e.id} className="ticker-in flex gap-3 px-4 py-2.5 border-b border-border last:border-0 text-[13px]">
145	145	<span className="num text-ink-3 shrink-0 w-[60px]">{timeFr(e.ts).slice(0, 5)}</span>
146		− <span className={cls("shrink-0 w-2 h-2 rounded-full mt-1.5", e.kind === "lead_change" ? "bg-warn" : e.kind === "riding_complete" ? "bg-ok" : e.kind === "quarantine" ? "bg-live" : "bg-ink-3")} style={e.party ? { background: partyColor(e.party) } : undefined} />
	146	+ <span className={cls("shrink-0 w-2 h-2 rounded-full mt-1.5", e.kind === "lead_change" ? "bg-warn" : e.kind === "riding_complete" ? "bg-ok" : e.kind === "quarantine" ? "bg-live" : "bg-ink-3")} style={e.party ? { background: partyVar(e.party) } : undefined} />
147	147	<span className="min-w-0">{e.ridingCode ? <Link href={`/circonscription/${e.ridingCode}`} className="hover:underline">{e.message}</Link> : e.message}</span>
148	148	</li>
149	149	))}
		`@@ -170,7 +170,7 @@ export function MajorityTimeline() {`
170	170	<Card>
171	171	<svg viewBox={`0 0 ${W} ${H}`} className="w-full h-auto" role="img" aria-label="Évolution de la probabilité de majorité par parti">
172	172	{[0, 0.5, 1].map((p) => (<g key={p}><line x1={pl} x2={W - 8} y1={y(p)} y2={y(p)} stroke="var(--border)" /><text x={pl - 4} y={y(p) + 3} fontSize={9.5} textAnchor="end" fill="var(--text-3)">{Math.round(p * 100)}</text></g>))}
173		− {PARTY_IDS.map((id) => (<polyline key={id} fill="none" stroke={partyColor(id)} strokeWidth={2} points={hist.map((h, i) => `${x(i)},${y(h.parties[id]?.pMajority ?? 0)}`).join(" ")} />))}
	173	+ {PARTY_IDS.map((id) => (<polyline key={id} fill="none" stroke={partyVar(id)} strokeWidth={2} points={hist.map((h, i) => `${x(i)},${y(h.parties[id]?.pMajority ?? 0)}`).join(" ")} />))}
174	174	<polyline fill="none" stroke="var(--text)" strokeWidth={1.5} strokeDasharray="3 3" points={hist.map((h, i) => `${x(i)},${y(h.pMinority ?? 0)}`).join(" ")} />
175	175	{[0, Math.floor(hist.length / 2), hist.length - 1].map((i) => (<text key={i} x={x(i)} y={H - 6} fontSize={9.5} textAnchor="middle" fill="var(--text-3)" className="num">{timeFr(hist[i].ts).slice(0, 5)}</text>))}
176	176	</svg>

modified web/src/components/map-section.tsx +2 −2

		`@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ import type { FeatureCollection, Geometry } from "geojson";`
4	4	import Link from "next/link";
5	5	import { useEffect, useMemo, useState } from "react";
6	6	import { cls } from "@/lib/format";
7		−import { PARTY_IDS, partyColor, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
	7	+import { PARTY_IDS, partyVar, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
8	8	import { QuebecMap, type MapMode, type MapRiding } from "./map";
9	9
10	10	const MODES: { id: MapMode; label: string; hint: string }[] = [
		`@@ -58,7 +58,7 @@ export function MapSection({ height = 560, compact = false, initialMode = "proje`
58	58	<QuebecMap geo={geo} ridings={ridings} mode={mode} height={height} compact={compact} interactive />
59	59	<div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-4 gap-y-1 mt-3 text-[12.5px]">
60	60	{PARTY_IDS.filter((id) => counts[id]).sort((a, b) => (counts[b] ?? 0) - (counts[a] ?? 0)).map((id) => (
61		− <span key={id} className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 num"><span className="w-2.5 h-2.5 rounded-[3px]" style={{ background: partyColor(id) }} /><b>{partyLabel(id)}</b> {counts[id]}</span>
	61	+ <span key={id} className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 num"><span className="w-2.5 h-2.5 rounded-[3px]" style={{ background: partyVar(id) }} /><b>{partyLabel(id)}</b> {counts[id]}</span>
62	62	))}
63	63	<span className="text-ink-3">{mode === "live" ? "En tête / élu" : mode === "2022" ? "Sièges 2022 transposés" : "Favoris (probabilité, pas certitude)"}</span>
64	64	<Link href="/carte" className="link ml-auto text-[12.5px]">Carte complète →</Link>

modified web/src/components/map.tsx +16 −16

		`@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ import type { FeatureCollection, Geometry } from "geojson";`
5	5	import { useRouter } from "next/navigation";
6	6	import { useCallback, useEffect, useMemo, useRef, useState } from "react";
7	7	import { cls, pct, prob, ratingLabel, statusLabel } from "@/lib/format";
8		−import { partyColor, partyLabel, withAlpha } from "@/lib/parties";
	8	+import { partyAlpha, partyLabel, partyVar } from "@/lib/parties";
9	9
10	10	export type MapMode = "projection" \| "probabilite" \| "marge" \| "variation" \| "2022" \| "live";
11	11
		`@@ -29,24 +29,24 @@ interface Props {`
29	29	}
30	30
31	31	function fillFor(r: MapRiding \| undefined, mode: MapMode): string {
32		− if (!r) return "#E5E7EB";
	32	+ if (!r) return "var(--p-none)";
33	33	if (mode === "live") {
34	34	const l = r.live;
35		− if (!l \|\| l.status === "NOT_STARTED" \|\| !l.leader) return "#E5E7EB";
	35	+ if (!l \|\| l.status === "NOT_STARTED" \|\| !l.leader) return "var(--p-none)";
36	36	const strong = l.status === "ELECTED" \|\| l.status === "FINAL" \|\| l.status === "PROJECTED";
37		− return strong ? partyColor(l.leader) : withAlpha(partyColor(l.leader), 0.45);
	37	+ return strong ? partyVar(l.leader) : partyAlpha(l.leader, 0.45);
38	38	}
39		− if (mode === "2022") return r.baseline2022 ? partyColor(r.baseline2022) : "#E5E7EB";
	39	+ if (mode === "2022") return r.baseline2022 ? partyVar(r.baseline2022) : "var(--p-none)";
40	40	const f = r.forecast;
41		− if (!f) return "#E5E7EB";
42		− if (mode === "projection") return withAlpha(partyColor(f.favorite), 0.35 + 0.65 * Math.min(1, (f.p - 0.4) / 0.6));
43		− if (mode === "probabilite") return withAlpha(partyColor(f.favorite), 0.25 + 0.75 * f.p);
44		− if (mode === "marge") return withAlpha(partyColor(f.favorite), Math.min(1, 0.25 + f.margin / 30));
	41	+ if (!f) return "var(--p-none)";
	42	+ if (mode === "projection") return partyAlpha(f.favorite, 0.35 + 0.65 * Math.min(1, (f.p - 0.4) / 0.6));
	43	+ if (mode === "probabilite") return partyAlpha(f.favorite, 0.25 + 0.75 * f.p);
	44	+ if (mode === "marge") return partyAlpha(f.favorite, Math.min(1, 0.25 + f.margin / 30));
45	45	if (mode === "variation") {
46		− if (r.baseline2022 && r.baseline2022 !== f.favorite) return partyColor(f.favorite);
47		− return withAlpha(partyColor(f.favorite), 0.18);
	46	+ if (r.baseline2022 && r.baseline2022 !== f.favorite) return partyVar(f.favorite);
	47	+ return partyAlpha(f.favorite, 0.18);
48	48	}
49		− return partyColor(f.favorite);
	49	+ return partyVar(f.favorite);
50	50	}
51	51
52	52	export function QuebecMap({ geo, ridings, mode, height = 560, interactive = true, focus = null, className, onSelect, compact = false }: Props) {
		`@@ -140,7 +140,7 @@ export function QuebecMap({ geo, ridings, mode, height = 560, interactive = true`
140	140	const renderPath = (code: number, d: string, key?: string) => {
141	141	const rr = ridings[code];
142	142	return (
143		− <path key={key ?? code} d={d} fill={fillFor(rr, mode)} stroke={hover === code ? "var(--text)" : "rgba(255,255,255,.9)"} strokeWidth={hover === code ? 1.6 / view.k : 0.6 / view.k}
	143	+ <path key={key ?? code} d={d} fill={fillFor(rr, mode)} stroke={hover === code ? "var(--text)" : "var(--surface)"} strokeWidth={hover === code ? 1.6 / view.k : 0.6 / view.k}
144	144	className={interactive ? "cursor-pointer" : undefined} onMouseEnter={() => setHover(code)} onMouseLeave={() => setHover(null)}
145	145	onClick={() => interactive && select(code)} tabIndex={interactive ? 0 : -1} role={interactive ? "button" : undefined} aria-label={rr ? `${rr.name}${rr.forecast ? ` — ${partyLabel(rr.forecast.favorite)} favori ${prob(rr.forecast.p)}` : ""}` : undefined}
146	146	onKeyDown={(e) => { if (e.key === "Enter") select(code); }} onFocus={() => setHover(code)} onBlur={() => setHover(null)} />
		`@@ -181,16 +181,16 @@ export function QuebecMap({ geo, ridings, mode, height = 560, interactive = true`
181	181	{mode === "live" && r.live ? (
182	182	<div className="mt-1 space-y-0.5">
183	183	<div className="flex justify-between gap-3"><span className="text-ink-2">Statut</span><span>{statusLabel(r.live.status)}</span></div>
184		− <div className="flex justify-between gap-3"><span className="text-ink-2">En tête</span><span className="font-semibold" style={{ color: partyColor(r.live.leader) }}>{partyLabel(r.live.leader)}</span></div>
	184	+ <div className="flex justify-between gap-3"><span className="text-ink-2">En tête</span><span className="font-semibold" style={{ color: partyVar(r.live.leader) }}>{partyLabel(r.live.leader)}</span></div>
185	185	<div className="flex justify-between gap-3"><span className="text-ink-2">Bureaux</span><span className="num">{r.live.bureaux[0]} / {r.live.bureaux[1]}</span></div>
186	186	{r.live.marginPct !== null && <div className="flex justify-between gap-3"><span className="text-ink-2">Marge</span><span className="num">{pct(r.live.marginPct)}</span></div>}
187	187	</div>
188	188	) : mode === "2022" ? (
189		− <div className="mt-1 text-ink-2">2022 (transposé) : <span className="font-semibold" style={{ color: partyColor(r.baseline2022) }}>{partyLabel(r.baseline2022)}</span></div>
	189	+ <div className="mt-1 text-ink-2">2022 (transposé) : <span className="font-semibold" style={{ color: partyVar(r.baseline2022) }}>{partyLabel(r.baseline2022)}</span></div>
190	190	) : r.forecast ? (
191	191	<div className="mt-1 space-y-0.5">
192	192	{Object.entries(r.forecast.pWin).filter(([id]) => id !== "aut").sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1]).slice(0, 4).map(([id, p]) => (
193		− <div key={id} className="flex justify-between gap-3"><span className="font-semibold" style={{ color: partyColor(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</span><span className="num">{prob(p)}</span></div>
	193	+ <div key={id} className="flex justify-between gap-3"><span className="font-semibold" style={{ color: partyVar(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</span><span className="num">{prob(p)}</span></div>
194	194	))}
195	195	<div className="text-ink-3 pt-1 border-t border-border mt-1">Probabilité de victoire · {ratingLabel(r.forecast.rating)} · marge {r.forecast.margin.toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")} pt</div>
196	196	</div>

modified web/src/components/party.tsx +3 −3

		`@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@`
1	1	import Image from "next/image";
2		−import { OTHERS, party, partyColor, partyLabel, partyName } from "@/lib/parties";
	2	+import { OTHERS, party, partyVar, partyLabel, partyName } from "@/lib/parties";
3	3	import { cls } from "@/lib/format";
4	4
5	5	/** Logo officiel du parti, jamais déformé ni recoloré. Le PCQ (logo blanc) est posé sur sa pastille marine officielle. */
		`@@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ export function PartyLogo({ id, height = 20, className, white = false }: { id: s`
23	23
24	24	/** Pastille sigle + couleur (accessibilité : texte toujours présent). */
25	25	export function PartyBadge({ id, className, size = "md" }: { id: string \| null \| undefined; className?: string; size?: "sm" \| "md" \| "lg" }) {
26		− const color = partyColor(id);
	26	+ const color = partyVar(id);
27	27	const label = partyLabel(id);
28	28	const sz = size === "sm" ? "text-[10px] px-1.5 py-[2px]" : size === "lg" ? "text-sm px-2.5 py-1" : "text-[11px] px-2 py-[3px]";
29	29	return (
		`@@ -34,7 +34,7 @@ export function PartyBadge({ id, className, size = "md" }: { id: string \| null \|`
34	34	}
35	35
36	36	export function PartyDot({ id, size = 8, className }: { id: string \| null \| undefined; size?: number; className?: string }) {
37		− return <span aria-hidden className={cls("inline-block rounded-full shrink-0", className)} style={{ width: size, height: size, background: partyColor(id) }} />;
	37	+ return <span aria-hidden className={cls("inline-block rounded-full shrink-0", className)} style={{ width: size, height: size, background: partyVar(id) }} />;
38	38	}
39	39
40	40	export function PartyText({ id, full = false, className }: { id: string \| null \| undefined; full?: boolean; className?: string }) {

modified web/src/components/polls-table.tsx +3 −3

		`@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ import Link from "next/link";`
4	4	import { useMemo, useState } from "react";
5	5	import type { Poll } from "@/lib/api";
6	6	import { cls, dateShort, int, modeLabel } from "@/lib/format";
7		−import { PARTY_IDS, partyColor, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
	7	+import { PARTY_IDS, partyVar, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
8	8
9	9	export function PollsTable({ polls }: { polls: Poll[] }) {
10	10	const [firm, setFirm] = useState("all");
		`@@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ export function PollsTable({ polls }: { polls: Poll[] }) {`
23	23	</div>
24	24	<div className="overflow-x-auto max-h-[70vh]">
25	25	<table className="data-table min-w-[820px]">
26		− <thead><tr><th>Firme</th><th>Terrain</th><th className="r">n</th>{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <th key={id} className="r" style={{ color: partyColor(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</th>)}<th className="r">Autres</th><th className="r">Poids</th><th>Source</th></tr></thead>
	26	+ <thead><tr><th>Firme</th><th>Terrain</th><th className="r">n</th>{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <th key={id} className="r" style={{ color: partyVar(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</th>)}<th className="r">Autres</th><th className="r">Poids</th><th>Source</th></tr></thead>
27	27	<tbody>
28	28	{rows.map((p) => {
29	29	const lead = Object.entries(p.results).filter(([k]) => k !== "aut").sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1])[0]?.[0];
		`@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ export function PollsTable({ polls }: { polls: Poll[] }) {`
32	32	<td><Link href={`/sondages/${p.id}`} className="font-semibold hover:underline">{p.pollster.name}</Link>{p.sponsor && <div className="text-[11.5px] text-ink-3">{p.sponsor}</div>}</td>
33	33	<td className="num whitespace-nowrap"><Link href={`/sondages/${p.id}`}>{p.fieldworkStart ? `${dateShort(p.fieldworkStart)} – ` : ""}{dateShort(p.fieldworkEnd)}</Link></td>
34	34	<td className="r num">{int(p.sampleSize)}</td>
35		− {PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <td key={id} className={cls("r num", id === lead && "font-bold")} style={id === lead ? { color: partyColor(id) } : undefined}>{p.results[id] !== undefined ? p.results[id].toFixed(p.results[id] % 1 ? 1 : 0).replace(".", ",") : "—"}</td>)}
	35	+ {PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <td key={id} className={cls("r num", id === lead && "font-bold")} style={id === lead ? { color: partyVar(id) } : undefined}>{p.results[id] !== undefined ? p.results[id].toFixed(p.results[id] % 1 ? 1 : 0).replace(".", ",") : "—"}</td>)}
36	36	<td className="r num text-ink-2">{p.results["aut"] !== undefined ? p.results["aut"].toFixed(0) : "—"}</td>
37	37	<td className="r num text-ink-2">{p.weight ? p.weight.weight.toFixed(2) : "—"}</td>
38	38	<td className="whitespace-nowrap">{p.sourceTier === "primary" ? <span className="text-[10.5px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wide text-ok">PDF archivé</span> : <span className="text-[10.5px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wide text-warn" title="Valeur relevée par un index tiers ; document original en cours de récupération">index</span>}{p.excluded && <span className="ml-1 text-[10.5px] uppercase text-live">exclu</span>}</td>

modified web/src/components/replay.tsx +2 −2

		`@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@`
2	2
3	3	import { useEffect, useMemo, useState } from "react";
4	4	import { prob, timeFr } from "@/lib/format";
5		−import { PARTY_IDS, partyColor, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
	5	+import { PARTY_IDS, partyVar, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
6	6	import { SeatMeter } from "./charts";
7	7	import { MapSection } from "./map-section";
8	8	import { Card, Empty } from "./ui";
		`@@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ export function Replay() {`
28	28	<div className="flex items-center gap-3 flex-wrap"><button onClick={() => setPlaying((p) => !p)} className="rounded-[8px] bg-brand text-white px-3 py-1.5 text-[13px] font-semibold">{playing ? "Pause" : "▶ Lecture"}</button><input type="range" min={0} max={snaps.length - 1} value={i} onChange={(e) => { setPlaying(false); setI(Number(e.target.value)); }} className="flex-1 min-w-[200px]" aria-label="Moment" /><span className="num text-[13.5px]"><b>{timeFr(cur.fetchedAt)}</b> · {cur.reporting} circ. rapportent{cur.simulated ? " · simulation" : ""}{cur.final ? " · FINAL" : ""}</span></div>
29	29	<div className="flex justify-between text-[11px] text-ink-3 num mt-1"><span>{timeFr(snaps[0].fetchedAt)}</span><span>{timeFr(snaps[snaps.length - 1].fetchedAt)}</span></div>
30	30	<div className="mt-4"><SeatMeter seats={seats} total={127} majority={state?.nowcast?.majority ?? 64} /></div>
31		− {state?.nowcast && <div className="grid grid-cols-2 sm:grid-cols-5 gap-2 mt-4">{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => (<div key={id} className="surface-2 rounded-[8px] p-2.5 text-[12.5px]"><b style={{ color: partyColor(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</b><div className="num mt-0.5">en tête <b>{state.nowcast!.parties[id]?.total_now ?? 0}</b> · nowcast {state.nowcast!.parties[id]?.seats_median}</div><div className="num text-ink-2">P(maj) {prob(state.nowcast!.parties[id]?.p_majority)}</div></div>))}</div>}
	31	+ {state?.nowcast && <div className="grid grid-cols-2 sm:grid-cols-5 gap-2 mt-4">{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => (<div key={id} className="surface-2 rounded-[8px] p-2.5 text-[12.5px]"><b style={{ color: partyVar(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</b><div className="num mt-0.5">en tête <b>{state.nowcast!.parties[id]?.total_now ?? 0}</b> · nowcast {state.nowcast!.parties[id]?.seats_median}</div><div className="num text-ink-2">P(maj) {prob(state.nowcast!.parties[id]?.p_majority)}</div></div>))}</div>}
32	32	</Card>
33	33	<Card pad={false} className="p-3 md:p-4"><MapSection height={560} live liveState={liveState} showModes={false} /></Card>
34	34	</div>

modified web/src/components/riding-live.tsx +2 −2

		`@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@`
2	2
3	3	import { useEffect, useState } from "react";
4	4	import { int, pct, prob, statusLabel, timeFr } from "@/lib/format";
5		−import { partyColor, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
	5	+import { partyVar, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
6	6	import { PartyDot } from "./party";
7	7	import { Badge, Card, LiveBadge, SectionHeader } from "./ui";
8	8
		`@@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ export function RidingLive({ code, initial, forecast }: { code: number; initial:`
27	27	{(live.candidates ?? []).map((c, i) => (
28	28	<div key={c.name} className="grid grid-cols-[1fr_120px_70px_60px] items-center gap-3 text-[13.5px]">
29	29	<span className="inline-flex items-center gap-2 truncate"><PartyDot id={c.party_id} />{c.name} <span className="text-ink-3">{partyLabel(c.party_id)}</span>{i === 0 && live.leader && <span className="text-[10.5px] uppercase font-semibold text-ink-2">en tête</span>}</span>
30		− <div className="h-[12px] bg-surface-3 rounded-[4px] overflow-hidden"><div className="h-full" style={{ width: `${total ? (c.votes / total) * 100 : 0}%`, background: partyColor(c.party_id) }} /></div>
	30	+ <div className="h-[12px] bg-surface-3 rounded-[4px] overflow-hidden"><div className="h-full" style={{ width: `${total ? (c.votes / total) * 100 : 0}%`, background: partyVar(c.party_id) }} /></div>
31	31	<span className="num text-right">{int(c.votes)}</span><span className="num text-right font-semibold">{pct(total ? (100 * c.votes) / total : 0)}</span>
32	32	</div>
33	33	))}

modified web/src/components/riding-map.tsx +2 −2

		`@@ -25,12 +25,12 @@ export function RidingMap({ code }: { code: number }) {`
25	25	return (
26	26	<div className="grid grid-cols-2">
27	27	<svg viewBox={`0 0 ${svg.W} ${svg.H}`} className="w-full h-auto bg-surface-2" role="img" aria-label="Localisation au Québec">
28		− {svg.all.map((d, i) => <path key={i} d={d} fill="#E5E7EB" stroke="#fff" strokeWidth={0.5} />)}
	28	+ {svg.all.map((d, i) => <path key={i} d={d} fill="var(--p-none)" stroke="var(--surface)" strokeWidth={0.5} />)}
29	29	<path d={svg.me} fill="var(--qc26-accent)" stroke="var(--qc26-accent)" strokeWidth={4} strokeLinejoin="round" />
30	30	<rect x={svg.box[0] - 8} y={svg.box[1] - 8} width={svg.box[2] + 16} height={svg.box[3] + 16} fill="none" stroke="var(--text)" strokeWidth={1} strokeDasharray="3 2" />
31	31	</svg>
32	32	<svg viewBox={`0 0 ${svg.W} ${svg.H}`} className="w-full h-auto bg-surface border-l border-border" role="img" aria-label="Zoom sur la circonscription">
33		− {svg.neighbors.map((d, i) => <path key={i} d={d} fill="#F1F3F5" stroke="#D5D9DF" strokeWidth={0.8} />)}
	33	+ {svg.neighbors.map((d, i) => <path key={i} d={d} fill="var(--surface-3)" stroke="var(--border-strong)" strokeWidth={0.8} />)}
34	34	<path d={svg.localMe} fill="rgba(37,99,235,.18)" stroke="var(--qc26-accent)" strokeWidth={2} />
35	35	</svg>
36	36	</div>

modified web/src/components/ridings-grid.tsx +3 −3

		`@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ import Link from "next/link";`
4	4	import { useMemo, useState } from "react";
5	5	import type { RidingListItem } from "@/lib/api";
6	6	import { cls, prob, ratingLabel } from "@/lib/format";
7		−import { PARTY_IDS, partyColor, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
	7	+import { PARTY_IDS, partyVar, partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
8	8	import { PartyBadge } from "./party";
9	9	import { Badge } from "./ui";
10	10
		`@@ -47,8 +47,8 @@ export function RidingsGrid({ ridings, regions, initialSort = "nom" }: { ridings`
47	47	<div className="mt-3 space-y-1">
48	48	{pw.slice(0, 5).map(([id, p]) => (
49	49	<div key={id} className={cls("grid grid-cols-[38px_1fr_46px] items-center gap-2 text-[12.5px]", p < 0.02 && "opacity-50")}>
50		− <span className="font-semibold num" style={{ color: partyColor(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</span>
51		− <div className="h-[6px] rounded-full bg-surface-3 overflow-hidden"><div className="h-full" style={{ width: `${p * 100}%`, background: partyColor(id) }} /></div>
	50	+ <span className="font-semibold num" style={{ color: partyVar(id) }}>{partyLabel(id)}</span>
	51	+ <div className="h-[6px] rounded-full bg-surface-3 overflow-hidden"><div className="h-full" style={{ width: `${p * 100}%`, background: partyVar(id) }} /></div>
52	52	<span className="num text-right">{prob(p)}</span>
53	53	</div>
54	54	))}

modified web/src/components/shell.tsx +50 −38

		`@@ -5,61 +5,73 @@ import { usePathname, useRouter } from "next/navigation";`
5	5	import { useCallback, useEffect, useRef, useState } from "react";
6	6	import { cls, daysLabel } from "@/lib/format";
7	7	import { partyLabel } from "@/lib/parties";
	8	+import { ThemeToggle } from "./theme";
8	9
9	10	const NAV = [
10	11	{ href: "/prevision", label: "Prévision" },
	12	+ { href: "/signaux", label: "Signaux" },
11	13	{ href: "/sondages", label: "Sondages" },
12	14	{ href: "/carte", label: "Carte" },
13	15	{ href: "/circonscriptions", label: "Circonscriptions" },
14		− { href: "/boussole", label: "Boussole" },
15	16	{ href: "/partis", label: "Partis" },
16		− { href: "/enjeux", label: "Enjeux" },
17		− { href: "/methodologie", label: "Méthodologie" },
	17	+ { href: "/boussole", label: "Boussole" },
	18	+ { href: "/methodologie", label: "Méthode" },
18	19	];
19	20
20	21	export function Wordmark({ className, size = 22 }: { className?: string; size?: number }) {
21	22	return (
22		− <span className={cls("inline-flex items-baseline font-bold tracking-tight select-none", className)} style={{ fontSize: size, letterSpacing: "-0.04em" }} aria-label="QC26">
	23	+ <span className={cls("inline-flex items-baseline select-none display", className)} style={{ fontSize: size, letterSpacing: "-0.03em", fontWeight: 700 }} aria-label="QC26">
23	24	<span>QC</span>
24		− <span className="mx-[3px] inline-block w-[2px] self-stretch bg-accent rounded-sm translate-y-[1px]" style={{ height: size * 0.82 }} aria-hidden />
	25	+ <span className="mx-[3px] inline-block w-[3px] self-stretch bg-accent rounded-sm translate-y-[1px]" style={{ height: size * 0.78 }} aria-hidden />
25	26	<span className="text-accent">26</span>
26	27	</span>
27	28	);
28	29	}
29	30
30		−export function TopNav({ daysToElection, mode }: { daysToElection: number; mode: "forecast" \| "live" \| "archive" }) {
	31	+export function TopNav({ daysToElection, mode, modelVersion }: { daysToElection: number; mode: "forecast" \| "live" \| "archive"; modelVersion?: string }) {
31	32	const path = usePathname();
32	33	const [paletteOpen, setPaletteOpen] = useState(false);
	34	+ const [scrolled, setScrolled] = useState(false);
33	35	useEffect(() => {
34	36	const onKey = (e: KeyboardEvent) => {
35	37	if ((e.metaKey \|\| e.ctrlKey) && e.key.toLowerCase() === "k") { e.preventDefault(); setPaletteOpen((v) => !v); }
36	38	if (e.key === "Escape") setPaletteOpen(false);
37	39	};
	40	+ const onScroll = () => setScrolled(window.scrollY > 8);
38	41	window.addEventListener("keydown", onKey);
39		− return () => window.removeEventListener("keydown", onKey);
	42	+ window.addEventListener("scroll", onScroll, { passive: true });
	43	+ return () => { window.removeEventListener("keydown", onKey); window.removeEventListener("scroll", onScroll); };
40	44	}, []);
41	45	const liveNav = mode !== "forecast" ? [{ href: "/live", label: mode === "live" ? "Direct" : "Résultats" }] : [];
42	46	return (
43	47	<>
44		− <header className="sticky top-0 z-40 bg-[rgba(247,248,250,.85)] backdrop-blur-md border-b border-border" style={{ height: "var(--header-h)" }}>
45		− <div className="mx-auto max-w-[1280px] h-full px-4 md:px-6 flex items-center gap-4">
46		− <Link href="/" className="shrink-0 flex items-center" aria-label="QC26 — accueil"><Wordmark /></Link>
47		− <nav className="hidden lg:flex items-center gap-0.5 ml-4" aria-label="Navigation principale">
	48	+ <header className={cls("sticky top-0 z-40 glass border-b transition-colors", scrolled ? "border-border" : "border-transparent")} style={{ height: "var(--header-h)" }}>
	49	+ <div className="mx-auto max-w-[1320px] h-full px-4 md:px-6 flex items-center gap-4">
	50	+ <Link href="/" className="shrink-0 flex items-center gap-3" aria-label="QC26 — accueil">
	51	+ <Wordmark />
	52	+ <span className="hidden xl:inline text-[11px] mono text-ink-3 uppercase tracking-[0.1em] border-l border-border pl-3">Québec 2026</span>
	53	+ </Link>
	54	+ <nav className="hidden lg:flex items-center gap-0.5 ml-2" aria-label="Navigation principale">
48	55	{[...liveNav, ...NAV].map((n) => {
49	56	const active = path === n.href \|\| (n.href !== "/" && path.startsWith(n.href));
50	57	return (
51		− <Link key={n.href} href={n.href} className={cls("px-3 py-1.5 rounded-[7px] text-[13.5px] font-medium transition-colors", active ? "bg-brand text-white" : "text-ink-2 hover:text-ink hover:bg-surface-2", n.href === "/live" && !active && "text-live")}>
	58	+ <Link key={n.href} href={n.href} className={cls("relative px-3 py-1.5 rounded-[8px] text-[13.5px] font-medium transition-colors", active ? "text-ink" : "text-ink-2 hover:text-ink hover:bg-surface-2", n.href === "/live" && !active && "text-live")}>
52	59	{n.href === "/live" && mode === "live" ? <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5"><span className="live-dot" />DIRECT</span> : n.label}
	60	+ {active && <span className="absolute left-3 right-3 -bottom-[2px] h-[2px] rounded-full bg-accent" aria-hidden />}
53	61	</Link>
54	62	);
55	63	})}
56	64	</nav>
57	65	<div className="ml-auto flex items-center gap-2">
58		− <button onClick={() => setPaletteOpen(true)} className="hidden md:inline-flex items-center gap-2 text-[12.5px] text-ink-2 border border-border rounded-[7px] px-2.5 py-1.5 hover:bg-surface-2" aria-label="Rechercher (⌘K)">
59		− <span aria-hidden>⌕</span> Rechercher <kbd className="mono text-[10.5px] border border-border rounded px-1 text-ink-3">⌘K</kbd>
	66	+ <button onClick={() => setPaletteOpen(true)} className="hidden md:inline-flex items-center gap-2 text-[12.5px] text-ink-2 border border-border rounded-[9px] px-2.5 py-1.5 hover:bg-surface-2 transition-colors" aria-label="Rechercher (⌘K)">
	67	+ <svg width="14" height="14" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" strokeWidth="2" strokeLinecap="round" aria-hidden><circle cx="11" cy="11" r="7" /><path d="m20 20-3.5-3.5" /></svg>
	68	+ Rechercher <kbd className="mono text-[10.5px] border border-border rounded px-1 text-ink-3">⌘K</kbd>
	69	+ </button>
	70	+ <button onClick={() => setPaletteOpen(true)} className="md:hidden w-9 h-9 inline-flex items-center justify-center rounded-[9px] border border-border" aria-label="Rechercher">
	71	+ <svg width="15" height="15" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" strokeWidth="2" strokeLinecap="round" aria-hidden><circle cx="11" cy="11" r="7" /><path d="m20 20-3.5-3.5" /></svg>
60	72	</button>
61		− <button onClick={() => setPaletteOpen(true)} className="md:hidden w-9 h-9 inline-flex items-center justify-center rounded-[7px] border border-border" aria-label="Rechercher">⌕</button>
62		− <ElectionChip days={daysToElection} mode={mode} />
	73	+ <ThemeToggle />
	74	+ <ElectionChip days={daysToElection} mode={mode} modelVersion={modelVersion} />
63	75	</div>
64	76	</div>
65	77	</header>
		`@@ -68,13 +80,13 @@ export function TopNav({ daysToElection, mode }: { daysToElection: number; mode:`
68	80	);
69	81	}
70	82
71		−function ElectionChip({ days, mode }: { days: number; mode: string }) {
72		− if (mode === "live") return <Link href="/live" className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 rounded-[7px] bg-live text-white px-2.5 py-1.5 text-[12px] font-bold tracking-wide"><span className="live-dot !bg-white" /> DIRECT</Link>;
73		− if (mode === "archive") return <span className="inline-flex items-center rounded-[7px] bg-brand text-white px-2.5 py-1.5 text-[11.5px] font-bold tracking-wide uppercase">Archive · 5 oct. 2026</span>;
	83	+function ElectionChip({ days, mode, modelVersion }: { days: number; mode: string; modelVersion?: string }) {
	84	+ if (mode === "live") return <Link href="/live" className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 rounded-[9px] bg-live text-white px-2.5 py-1.5 text-[12px] font-bold tracking-wide"><span className="live-dot !bg-white" /> DIRECT</Link>;
	85	+ if (mode === "archive") return <span className="inline-flex items-center rounded-[9px] bg-brand text-ink-inverse px-2.5 py-1.5 text-[11.5px] font-bold tracking-wide uppercase">Archive · 5 oct. 2026</span>;
74	86	return (
75		− <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-2 rounded-[7px] border border-border bg-surface px-2.5 py-1.5 text-[11.5px] font-semibold tracking-wide uppercase text-ink-2">
76		− <span className="hidden sm:inline">Élection · 5 oct. 2026</span>
77		− <span className="num text-ink font-bold">{daysLabel(days)}</span>
	87	+ <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-2 rounded-[9px] border border-border bg-surface px-2.5 py-1.5 text-[11px] mono uppercase tracking-[0.08em] text-ink-2" title={modelVersion ? `Modèle ${modelVersion}` : undefined}>
	88	+ <span className="hidden sm:inline">5 oct. 2026</span>
	89	+ <span className="text-ink font-bold">{daysLabel(days)}</span>
78	90	</span>
79	91	);
80	92	}
		`@@ -82,21 +94,21 @@ function ElectionChip({ days, mode }: { days: number; mode: string }) {`
82	94	export function MobileNav({ mode }: { mode: "forecast" \| "live" \| "archive" }) {
83	95	const path = usePathname();
84	96	const items = [
85		− { href: "/", label: "Accueil", icon: "◉" },
86		− mode === "forecast" ? { href: "/prevision", label: "Prévision", icon: "◭" } : { href: "/live", label: mode === "live" ? "Direct" : "Résultats", icon: "●" },
87		− { href: "/carte", label: "Carte", icon: "◫" },
88		− { href: "/boussole", label: "Boussole", icon: "◎" },
89		− { href: "/plus", label: "Plus", icon: "≡" },
	97	+ { href: "/", label: "Accueil", icon: <path d="M3 11.5 12 4l9 7.5V20a1 1 0 0 1-1 1h-5v-6H9v6H4a1 1 0 0 1-1-1z" /> },
	98	+ mode === "forecast" ? { href: "/prevision", label: "Prévision", icon: <path d="M3 20h18M5 17V9M10 17V4M15 17v-6M20 17v-3" /> } : { href: "/live", label: mode === "live" ? "Direct" : "Résultats", icon: <circle cx="12" cy="12" r="5" /> },
	99	+ { href: "/signaux", label: "Signaux", icon: <path d="M2 12h4l3-8 4 16 3-8h6" /> },
	100	+ { href: "/carte", label: "Carte", icon: <path d="M3 6l6-2 6 2 6-2v14l-6 2-6-2-6 2zM9 4v14M15 6v14" /> },
	101	+ { href: "/plus", label: "Plus", icon: <path d="M4 7h16M4 12h16M4 17h16" /> },
90	102	];
91	103	return (
92		− <nav className="lg:hidden fixed bottom-0 inset-x-0 z-40 bg-[rgba(255,255,255,.92)] backdrop-blur-md border-t border-border safe-bottom" style={{ height: "calc(var(--bottom-nav-h) + env(safe-area-inset-bottom))" }} aria-label="Navigation mobile">
93		− <div className="grid grid-cols-5 h-[60px]">
	104	+ <nav className="lg:hidden fixed bottom-0 inset-x-0 z-40 border-t border-border safe-bottom" style={{ height: "calc(var(--bottom-nav-h) + env(safe-area-inset-bottom))", background: "var(--nav-bg)", backdropFilter: "blur(14px)", WebkitBackdropFilter: "blur(14px)" }} aria-label="Navigation mobile">
	105	+ <div className="grid grid-cols-5 h-[62px]">
94	106	{items.map((it) => {
95	107	const active = it.href === "/" ? path === "/" : path.startsWith(it.href);
96	108	const live = it.href === "/live" && mode === "live";
97	109	return (
98		− <Link key={it.href} href={it.href} className={cls("flex flex-col items-center justify-center gap-0.5 text-[10.5px] font-semibold", active ? "text-brand" : "text-ink-3", live && "text-live")}>
99		− <span className={cls("text-[17px] leading-none", live && "live-dot !w-[10px] !h-[10px] mb-1")} aria-hidden>{live ? "" : it.icon}</span>
	110	+ <Link key={it.href} href={it.href} className={cls("flex flex-col items-center justify-center gap-1 text-[10.5px] font-semibold transition-colors", active ? "text-accent" : "text-ink-3", live && "text-live")}>
	111	+ <svg width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" strokeWidth={active ? 2.2 : 1.8} strokeLinecap="round" strokeLinejoin="round" aria-hidden>{it.icon}</svg>
100	112	{it.label}
101	113	</Link>
102	114	);
		`@@ -125,7 +137,7 @@ export function CommandPalette({ onClose }: { onClose: () => void }) {`
125	137	}, [q]);
126	138	const items: { label: string; sub?: string; href: string }[] = [];
127	139	const shortcuts = [
128		− { label: "Prévision", href: "/prevision" }, { label: "Sondages", href: "/sondages" }, { label: "Carte électorale", href: "/carte" }, { label: "Boussole électorale", href: "/boussole" },
	140	+ { label: "Prévision", href: "/prevision" }, { label: "Au-delà des sondages (signaux)", href: "/signaux" }, { label: "Sondages", href: "/sondages" }, { label: "Carte électorale", href: "/carte" }, { label: "Boussole électorale", href: "/boussole" },
129	141	{ label: "Comparateur des partis", href: "/partis/comparateur" }, { label: "Méthodologie", href: "/methodologie" }, { label: "Statut des données", href: "/statut" },
130	142	];
131	143	if (!res) items.push(...shortcuts.filter((s) => !q \|\| s.label.toLowerCase().includes(q.toLowerCase())));
		`@@ -140,22 +152,22 @@ export function CommandPalette({ onClose }: { onClose: () => void }) {`
140	152	}
141	153	const go = useCallback((href: string) => { onClose(); router.push(href); }, [onClose, router]);
142	154	return (
143		− <div className="fixed inset-0 z-50 bg-[rgba(17,19,24,.35)] backdrop-blur-[2px] flex items-start justify-center pt-[10vh] px-4" onClick={onClose} role="dialog" aria-modal aria-label="Recherche">
144		− <div className="w-full max-w-[620px] card card-lg overflow-hidden shadow-md" onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}>
145		− <input ref={ref} value={q} onChange={(e) => { setQ(e.target.value); setSel(0); }} placeholder="Circonscription, candidat·e, firme, enjeu, parti…" className="w-full px-4 py-3.5 text-[16px] outline-none bg-transparent border-b border-border"
	155	+ <div className="fixed inset-0 z-50 bg-[rgba(10,12,16,.45)] backdrop-blur-[3px] flex items-start justify-center pt-[10vh] px-4" onClick={onClose} role="dialog" aria-modal aria-label="Recherche">
	156	+ <div className="w-full max-w-[640px] card card-lg overflow-hidden shadow-lg fade-up" onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}>
	157	+ <input ref={ref} value={q} onChange={(e) => { setQ(e.target.value); setSel(0); }} placeholder="Circonscription, candidat·e, firme, enjeu, parti…" className="w-full px-5 py-4 text-[16px] outline-none bg-transparent border-b border-border"
146	158	onKeyDown={(e) => { if (e.key === "ArrowDown") { e.preventDefault(); setSel((s) => Math.min(items.length - 1, s + 1)); } if (e.key === "ArrowUp") { e.preventDefault(); setSel((s) => Math.max(0, s - 1)); } if (e.key === "Enter" && items[sel]) go(items[sel].href); }} />
147	159	<ul className="max-h-[50vh] overflow-auto py-1">
148	160	{items.length === 0 && <li className="px-4 py-6 text-ink-3 text-sm text-center">Aucun résultat.</li>}
149	161	{items.slice(0, 30).map((it, i) => (
150	162	<li key={it.href + i}>
151		− <button onClick={() => go(it.href)} onMouseEnter={() => setSel(i)} className={cls("w-full text-left px-4 py-2.5 flex items-center justify-between gap-3", i === sel && "bg-surface-2")}>
	163	+ <button onClick={() => go(it.href)} onMouseEnter={() => setSel(i)} className={cls("w-full text-left px-5 py-2.5 flex items-center justify-between gap-3", i === sel && "bg-surface-2")}>
152	164	<span className="truncate text-[14px]">{it.label}</span>
153		− {it.sub && <span className="text-[11.5px] text-ink-3 shrink-0">{it.sub}</span>}
	165	+ {it.sub && <span className="text-[11.5px] text-ink-3 shrink-0 mono uppercase tracking-wide">{it.sub}</span>}
154	166	</button>
155	167	</li>
156	168	))}
157	169	</ul>
158		− <div className="px-4 py-2 border-t border-border text-[11px] text-ink-3 flex gap-3"><span>↑↓ naviguer</span><span>↵ ouvrir</span><span>esc fermer</span></div>
	170	+ <div className="px-5 py-2 border-t border-border text-[11px] text-ink-3 flex gap-3 mono"><span>↑↓ naviguer</span><span>↵ ouvrir</span><span>esc fermer</span></div>
159	171	</div>
160	172	</div>
161	173	);

added web/src/components/signals.tsx +284 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,284 @@`
	1	+import Link from "next/link";
	2	+import type { AttentionPayload, ByElectionsPayload, ForecastComponents, FundamentalsPayload, MarketsPayload, MediaPayload } from "@/lib/api";
	3	+import { cls, dateFr, dateShort, delta, int, pct, prob, relTime } from "@/lib/format";
	4	+import { PARTY_IDS, partyAlpha, partyLabel, partyName, partyVar } from "@/lib/parties";
	5	+import { DivergingBars, Sparkline, StackedShare } from "./charts";
	6	+import { PartyBadge, PartyDot } from "./party";
	7	+import { Badge, SourceBadge, SourceChip } from "./ui";
	8	+
	9	+const fmtPp = (v: number) => `${v > 0 ? "+" : v < 0 ? "−" : ""}${Math.abs(v).toFixed(2).replace(".", ",")} pt`;
	10	+const fmtTone = (v: number) => `${v > 0 ? "+" : v < 0 ? "−" : ""}${Math.abs(v).toFixed(2).replace(".", ",")}`;
	11	+
	12	+// ------------------------------------------------------------- MARCHÉS
	13	+export function MarketsPanel({ m, comp, compact = false }: { m: MarketsPayload; comp?: ForecastComponents \| null; compact?: boolean }) {
	14	+ const most = Object.entries(m.mostSeats).sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1]);
	15	+ const hist = m.history ?? {};
	16	+ const asOf = m.asOf;
	17	+ return (
	18	+ <div className="space-y-5">
	19	+ <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2">
	20	+ <SourceChip name="Polymarket" at={asOf} tone={asOf ? "ok" : "warn"} />
	21	+ <span className="text-[12px] text-ink-3 num">volume cumulé {int(m.volume)} $ US · {m.markets.length} marchés suivis</span>
	22	+ <span className="ml-auto"><SourceBadge source={{ name: "Polymarket — Quebec General Election (API Gamma publique, prix « Oui »)", url: "https://polymarket.com/event/quebec-general-election-winner", retrievedAt: asOf, tier: "Tier 3 · marché de prédiction (signal)", detail: "Prix renormalisés entre partis pour « plus de sièges » ; historique quotidien archivé." }} /></span>
	23	+ </div>
	24	+ <div className={cls("grid gap-4", compact ? "md:grid-cols-2" : "lg:grid-cols-3")}>
	25	+ <div className="inset p-4">
	26	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-3">Plus de sièges · probabilité implicite</div>
	27	+ <div className="space-y-2.5">
	28	+ {most.filter(([, p]) => p >= 0.003).map(([id, p]) => {
	29	+ const series = (hist[`most_seats:${id}`] ?? []).map((x) => x.p);
	30	+ return (
	31	+ <div key={id} className="grid grid-cols-[38px_1fr_52px_84px] items-center gap-3 text-[13px]">
	32	+ <span className="font-semibold inline-flex items-center gap-1.5"><PartyDot id={id} />{partyLabel(id)}</span>
	33	+ <div className="h-[8px] rounded-full bg-surface-3 overflow-hidden"><div className="h-full rounded-full" style={{ width: `${p * 100}%`, background: partyVar(id) }} /></div>
	34	+ <span className="mono font-semibold text-right">{prob(p)}</span>
	35	+ <Sparkline values={series.slice(-60)} color={partyVar(id)} width={84} height={22} />
	36	+ </div>
	37	+ );
	38	+ })}
	39	+ </div>
	40	+ <div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3 mt-3">Étincelles : 60 derniers jours du prix « Oui ».</div>
	41	+ </div>
	42	+ <div className="inset p-4">
	43	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-3">Majorité & classement</div>
	44	+ {Object.entries(m.majority).map(([id, p]) => (
	45	+ <div key={id} className="flex items-center justify-between text-[13px] mb-2"><span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5"><PartyDot id={id} />Majorité {partyLabel(id)}</span><span className="mono font-semibold">{prob(p)}</span></div>
	46	+ ))}
	47	+ {[2, 3].map((pl) => {
	48	+ const rows = Object.entries(m.place?.[String(pl)] ?? m.place?.[pl as unknown as string] ?? {}).sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1]).slice(0, 3);
	49	+ if (!rows.length) return null;
	50	+ return <div key={pl} className="mt-3"><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3 mb-1">{pl}e place</div><div className="flex flex-wrap gap-1.5">{rows.map(([id, p]) => <span key={id} className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 text-[12px] rounded-[6px] border border-border px-2 py-[3px]"><PartyDot id={id} />{partyLabel(id)} <b className="mono">{prob(p)}</b></span>)}</div></div>;
	51	+ })}
	52	+ </div>
	53	+ <div className="inset p-4">
	54	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-3">Tranches de sièges · marché vs QC26</div>
	55	+ {Object.entries(m.seatBands).map(([id, sb]) => (
	56	+ <div key={id} className="mb-3">
	57	+ <div className="flex items-baseline justify-between text-[12.5px]"><span className="font-semibold inline-flex items-center gap-1.5"><PartyDot id={id} />{partyLabel(id)}</span><span className="text-ink-3 mono">moy. implicite {String(sb.impliedMean).replace(".", ",")}</span></div>
	58	+ <div className="flex gap-[2px] mt-1 h-[16px]">
	59	+ {sb.bands.map((b, i) => <div key={i} className="relative rounded-[3px] overflow-hidden bg-surface-3" style={{ flex: 1 }} title={`${b.lo}${b.hi !== null ? `–${b.hi}` : "+"} : ${prob(b.p)}`}><div className="absolute bottom-0 inset-x-0" style={{ height: `${Math.min(100, b.p * 100 * 1.6)}%`, background: partyAlpha(id, 0.8) }} /></div>)}
	60	+ </div>
	61	+ <div className="flex justify-between text-[10px] mono text-ink-3 mt-0.5"><span>{sb.bands[0]?.lo === 0 ? `< ${(sb.bands[0]?.hi ?? 0) + 1}` : sb.bands[0]?.lo}</span><span>{sb.bands[sb.bands.length - 1]?.lo}+</span></div>
	62	+ </div>
	63	+ ))}
	64	+ {comp?.markets?.enabled && <div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3">Tempérage QC26 : poids {Math.round(comp.markets.weight * 100)} % (tranches {Math.round((comp.markets.bandWeight ?? 0) * 100)} %), ESS {int(comp.markets.ess)}.</div>}
	65	+ </div>
	66	+ </div>
	67	+ {!compact && (
	68	+ <div className="overflow-x-auto">
	69	+ <table className="data-table min-w-[720px]">
	70	+ <thead><tr><th>Marché</th><th>Type</th><th className="r">Oui</th><th className="r">Achat / vente</th><th className="r">Volume</th><th className="r">Liquidité</th><th></th></tr></thead>
	71	+ <tbody>
	72	+ {m.markets.slice(0, 40).map((r) => (
	73	+ <tr key={r.id}><td className="max-w-[420px]">{r.party && <PartyBadge id={r.party} size="sm" className="mr-2" />}{r.question}</td><td><Badge>{r.kind === "most_seats" ? "plus de sièges" : r.kind === "majority" ? "majorité" : r.kind === "seats_band" ? "tranche" : `${r.place}e place`}</Badge></td><td className="r mono font-semibold">{prob(r.price)}</td><td className="r mono text-ink-2">{r.bid !== null && r.ask !== null ? `${Math.round(r.bid * 100)} / ${Math.round(r.ask * 100)}` : "—"}</td><td className="r mono">{int(r.volume)} $</td><td className="r mono text-ink-2">{int(r.liquidity)} $</td><td className="r">{r.url && <a href={r.url} target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" className="link text-[12px]">ouvrir</a>}</td></tr>
	74	+ ))}
	75	+ </tbody>
	76	+ </table>
	77	+ </div>
	78	+ )}
	79	+ </div>
	80	+ );
	81	+}
	82	+
	83	+// ------------------------------------------------------------ FONDAMENTAUX
	84	+export function FundamentalsPanel({ f, comp }: { f: FundamentalsPayload; comp?: ForecastComponents \| null }) {
	85	+ const satSeries = (f.series?.satisfaction ?? []).filter((x) => x.party === f.incumbent);
	86	+ return (
	87	+ <div className="space-y-5">
	88	+ <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2">
	89	+ <SourceChip name="Rapports de sondage · questions de leadership" at={f.asOf} tone="ok" />
	90	+ <span className="text-[12px] text-ink-3">{f.satisfactionPolls} sondages avec question de satisfaction (150 j) · pondération récence (demi-vie 30 j) × √n</span>
	91	+ </div>
	92	+ <div className="grid md:grid-cols-3 gap-4">
	93	+ <div className="inset p-4">
	94	+ <div className="eyebrow">Satisfaction · gouvernement {partyLabel(f.incumbent)}</div>
	95	+ <div className="figure text-[52px] mt-2">{f.satisfaction !== null ? pct(f.satisfaction, 0) : "—"}</div>
	96	+ <div className="text-[12.5px] text-ink-2">net {f.satisfactionNet !== null ? delta(f.satisfactionNet, 0, " pt") : "—"}{f.satisfactionBilan !== null ? ` · bilan des huit années : ${pct(f.satisfactionBilan, 0)}` : ""}</div>
	97	+ {satSeries.length > 1 && <div className="mt-3"><Sparkline values={satSeries.map((x) => x.value)} color={partyVar(f.incumbent)} width={220} height={36} fill /><div className="text-[10.5px] mono text-ink-3 mt-1">{dateShort(satSeries[0].date)} → {dateShort(satSeries[satSeries.length - 1].date)}</div></div>}
	98	+ {comp?.fundamentals?.enabled && <div className="mt-3 text-[12px] text-ink-2 leading-relaxed">Prior fondamentaux : {partyLabel(f.incumbent)} ≈ <b className="mono">{pct(comp.fundamentals.incumbentPrior)}</b> ({String(comp.fundamentals.params?.alpha).replace(".", ",")} + {String(comp.fundamentals.params?.beta).replace(".", ",")} × satisfaction), poids <b className="mono">{Math.round(comp.fundamentals.weight * 100)} %</b> à J−{comp.fundamentals.daysLeft}. Effet sur la moyenne : {Object.entries(comp.fundamentals.shiftPp ?? {}).filter(([k]) => k !== "aut").map(([k, v]) => `${partyLabel(k)} ${fmtPp(v)}`).join(", ")}.</div>}
	99	+ </div>
	100	+ <div className="inset p-4">
	101	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-3">Meilleur·e premier·ère ministre · part des répondants décidés</div>
	102	+ <div className="space-y-2">
	103	+ {PARTY_IDS.map((id) => ({ id, v: f.bestPmShare[id] })).sort((a, b) => (b.v ?? 0) - (a.v ?? 0)).map(({ id, v }) => (
	104	+ <div key={id} className="grid grid-cols-[38px_1fr_52px] items-center gap-3 text-[13px]"><span className="font-semibold inline-flex items-center gap-1.5"><PartyDot id={id} />{partyLabel(id)}</span><div className="h-[8px] rounded-full bg-surface-3 overflow-hidden">{v !== null && <div className="h-full rounded-full" style={{ width: `${v}%`, background: partyVar(id) }} />}</div><span className="mono font-semibold text-right">{v !== null ? pct(v, 0) : "—"}</span></div>
	105	+ ))}
	106	+ </div>
	107	+ <div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3 mt-3">Écart « meilleur PM − intention de vote » = prime au chef (κ {comp?.momentum?.params?.leaderKappa ?? 0.15}) dans le momentum.</div>
	108	+ </div>
	109	+ <div className="inset p-4">
	110	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-3">Favorabilité nette des chef·fes</div>
	111	+ <DivergingBars values={f.leaderNetFavorable} max={50} format={(v) => delta(v, 0, " pt")} />
	112	+ <div className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-3 mt-4 text-[12.5px]">
	113	+ <div><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3">Souveraineté (Oui)</div><div className="figure text-[24px]">{f.sovereigntyYes !== null ? pct(f.sovereigntyYes, 0) : "—"}</div></div>
	114	+ <div><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3">« Représente le changement »</div><div className="text-[13px] mt-1">{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => ({ id, v: f.changeLeader[id] })).filter((x) => x.v !== null).sort((a, b) => (b.v ?? 0) - (a.v ?? 0)).slice(0, 3).map((x) => `${partyLabel(x.id)} ${pct(x.v, 0)}`).join(" · ") \|\| "—"}</div></div>
	115	+ </div>
	116	+ {Object.values(f.secondChoice).some((v) => v !== null) && <div className="mt-3 text-[12px] text-ink-2">Deuxième choix : {PARTY_IDS.map((id) => ({ id, v: f.secondChoice[id] })).filter((x) => x.v !== null).sort((a, b) => (b.v ?? 0) - (a.v ?? 0)).map((x) => `${partyLabel(x.id)} ${pct(x.v, 0)}`).join(" · ")}</div>}
	117	+ </div>
	118	+ </div>
	119	+ </div>
	120	+ );
	121	+}
	122	+
	123	+// ---------------------------------------------------------------- MÉDIAS
	124	+export function MediaPanel({ m, compact = false }: { m: MediaPayload; compact?: boolean }) {
	125	+ const topics = Object.entries(m.topics ?? {}).slice(0, 8);
	126	+ return (
	127	+ <div className="space-y-5">
	128	+ <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2">
	129	+ <SourceChip name="Presse québécoise · Google Actualités" at={m.asOf} tone={m.enabled ? "ok" : "warn"} />
	130	+ <span className="text-[12px] text-ink-3">{m.articles} titres classés sur {m.window} jours · ton par parti attribué par LLM, validé (parti reconnu, ton borné)</span>
	131	+ </div>
	132	+ <div className={cls("grid gap-4", compact ? "md:grid-cols-2" : "lg:grid-cols-3")}>
	133	+ <div className="inset p-4">
	134	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-3">Part de voix · {m.window} j</div>
	135	+ <StackedShare values={m.shareOfVoice} height={14} />
	136	+ <div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3 mt-3">Part des titres mentionnant chaque parti ({Object.values(m.counts).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0)} mentions).</div>
	137	+ </div>
	138	+ <div className="inset p-4">
	139	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-3">Ton moyen · −1 défavorable … +1 favorable</div>
	140	+ <DivergingBars values={m.tone} max={0.6} format={fmtTone} />
	141	+ <div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3 mt-3">Moyenne des tons attribués aux titres ; n faible = signal fragile ({PARTY_IDS.map((id) => `${partyLabel(id)} ${m.counts[id] ?? 0}`).join(", ")}).</div>
	142	+ </div>
	143	+ <div className="inset p-4">
	144	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-3">Sujets de la couverture</div>
	145	+ <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-1.5">{topics.map(([t, n]) => <span key={t} className="chip !py-1 !px-2.5 !text-[12px]">{t} <b className="mono">{n}</b></span>)}</div>
	146	+ {Object.values(m.gdelt).some((g) => g.volume28 !== null) && (
	147	+ <div className="mt-4 text-[12px]"><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3 mb-1">GDELT · volume 7 j vs 28 j (‰ des articles surveillés)</div>{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => { const g = m.gdelt[id]; return g?.volume28 !== null ? <div key={id} className="flex justify-between"><span>{partyLabel(id)}</span><span className="mono">{g.volume7?.toFixed(3)} / {g.volume28?.toFixed(3)}{g.tone7 !== null ? ` · ton ${g.tone7}` : ""}</span></div> : null; })}</div>
	148	+ )}
	149	+ </div>
	150	+ </div>
	151	+ {!compact && (
	152	+ <div>
	153	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-2">Revue de presse · derniers titres classés</div>
	154	+ <div className="grid md:grid-cols-2 gap-2">
	155	+ {m.latest.slice(0, 24).map((it) => (
	156	+ <a key={it.id} href={it.url} target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" className="card card-hover p-3.5 block">
	157	+ <div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-[11px] text-ink-3 mono"><span className="uppercase tracking-[0.06em]">{it.domain}</span><span>·</span><span>{relTime(it.publishedAt)}</span>{it.topic && <span className="ml-auto chip !py-0 !px-1.5 !text-[10.5px]">{it.topic}</span>}</div>
	158	+ <div className="font-semibold text-[14px] mt-1.5 leading-snug">{it.title}</div>
	159	+ {it.summary && <div className="text-[12.5px] text-ink-2 mt-1">{it.summary}</div>}
	160	+ {it.parties && <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-1.5 mt-2">{Object.entries(it.parties).map(([p, t]) => <span key={p} className={cls("inline-flex items-center gap-1 text-[11px] mono rounded-[5px] px-1.5 py-[2px]", t > 0.15 ? "bg-ok-soft text-ok" : t < -0.15 ? "bg-live-soft text-live" : "bg-surface-2 text-ink-2")}><span className="w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full" style={{ background: partyVar(p) }} />{partyLabel(p)} {fmtTone(t)}</span>)}</div>}
	161	+ </a>
	162	+ ))}
	163	+ </div>
	164	+ </div>
	165	+ )}
	166	+ </div>
	167	+ );
	168	+}
	169	+
	170	+// ------------------------------------------------------------- ATTENTION
	171	+export function AttentionPanel({ a, compact = false }: { a: AttentionPayload; compact?: boolean }) {
	172	+ if (!a.enabled) return <div className="text-ink-3 text-[13.5px]">Signal d'attention indisponible.</div>;
	173	+ const series = a.series ?? [];
	174	+ return (
	175	+ <div className="space-y-5">
	176	+ <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2">
	177	+ <SourceChip name="Wikipédia FR · pages vues" at={a.asOf} tone="ok" />
	178	+ <span className="text-[12px] text-ink-3">vues humaines des pages des partis et de leurs chef·fes (API Wikimedia), part du total des cinq partis</span>
	179	+ <span className="ml-auto"><SourceBadge source={{ name: "Wikimedia REST API — pageviews per-article (fr.wikipedia, all-access, user)", url: "https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/", tier: "Tier 3 · attention publique (signal)", detail: Object.entries(a.pages ?? {}).map(([p, t]) => `${p.toUpperCase()} : ${t.join(" + ")}`).join(" · ") }} /></span>
	180	+ </div>
	181	+ <div className={cls("grid gap-4", compact ? "md:grid-cols-2" : "lg:grid-cols-[1fr_1.4fr]")}>
	182	+ <div className="inset p-4">
	183	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-3">Part d'attention · 7 derniers jours</div>
	184	+ <StackedShare values={a.share7 ?? {}} height={14} />
	185	+ <div className="mt-4"><div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3 mb-1.5">Variation 7 j vs 28 j (pt de part)</div><DivergingBars values={a.delta ?? {}} max={8} format={(v) => delta(v, 1, " pt")} /></div>
	186	+ </div>
	187	+ <div className="inset p-4">
	188	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-3">Vues quotidiennes · partis + chef·fes</div>
	189	+ <AttentionChart series={series} />
	190	+ </div>
	191	+ </div>
	192	+ </div>
	193	+ );
	194	+}
	195	+
	196	+function AttentionChart({ series }: { series: { date: string; views: Record<string, number> }[] }) {
	197	+ if (series.length < 3) return <div className="text-ink-3 text-[13px]">Pas assez de données.</div>;
	198	+ const W = 640, H = 200, pl = 40, pr = 12, pt = 10, pb = 22;
	199	+ const max = Math.max(...series.flatMap((s) => PARTY_IDS.map((id) => s.views[id] ?? 0)), 10);
	200	+ const x = (i: number) => pl + (i / (series.length - 1)) * (W - pl - pr);
	201	+ const y = (v: number) => pt + (1 - v / max) * (H - pt - pb);
	202	+ const path = (id: string) => series.map((s, i) => `${i ? "L" : "M"}${x(i).toFixed(1)},${y(s.views[id] ?? 0).toFixed(1)}`).join(" ");
	203	+ const ticks = [0, Math.round(max / 2), Math.round(max)];
	204	+ return (
	205	+ <svg viewBox={`0 0 ${W} ${H}`} className="w-full h-auto" role="img" aria-label="Pages vues quotidiennes par parti">
	206	+ {ticks.map((t) => <g key={t}><line x1={pl} x2={W - pr} y1={y(t)} y2={y(t)} stroke="var(--grid)" /><text x={pl - 6} y={y(t) + 3.5} fontSize={10} textAnchor="end" fill="var(--text-3)" fontFamily="var(--font-mono)">{int(t)}</text></g>)}
	207	+ {PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <path key={id} d={path(id)} fill="none" stroke={partyVar(id)} strokeWidth={1.8} strokeLinejoin="round" />)}
	208	+ {[0, Math.floor(series.length / 2), series.length - 1].map((i) => <text key={i} x={x(i)} y={H - 6} fontSize={10} textAnchor={i === 0 ? "start" : i === series.length - 1 ? "end" : "middle"} fill="var(--text-3)" fontFamily="var(--font-mono)">{dateShort(series[i].date)}</text>)}
	209	+ </svg>
	210	+ );
	211	+}
	212	+
	213	+// ------------------------------------------------------------ PARTIELLES
	214	+export function ByElectionsPanel({ b, comp }: { b: ByElectionsPayload; comp?: ForecastComponents \| null }) {
	215	+ if (!b.enabled) return <div className="text-ink-3 text-[13.5px]">Aucune partielle archivée.</div>;
	216	+ const adj = new Map((comp?.byelections?.ridings ?? []).map((r) => [r.riding, r]));
	217	+ return (
	218	+ <div className="space-y-4">
	219	+ <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2">
	220	+ <SourceChip name="Élections Québec · résultats officiels" tone="ok" />
	221	+ <span className="text-[12px] text-ink-3">{b.n} partielles depuis le 3 octobre 2022 · swing = résultat de la partielle − résultat général 2022 dans la même circonscription</span>
	222	+ </div>
	223	+ <div className="grid md:grid-cols-2 xl:grid-cols-3 gap-3">
	224	+ {b.byElections.slice().reverse().map((e) => {
	225	+ const a = adj.get(e.riding ?? "");
	226	+ return (
	227	+ <div key={e.id} className="card p-4" style={{ borderTop: `3px solid ${partyVar(e.winner)}` }}>
	228	+ <div className="flex items-start justify-between gap-2"><div><div className="font-semibold text-[15px]">{e.riding}</div><div className="text-[12px] text-ink-3 num">{dateFr(e.date)}{e.turnout !== null ? ` · participation ${pct(e.turnout, 0)}` : ""}</div></div><PartyBadge id={e.winner} /></div>
	229	+ <div className="mt-3 space-y-1.5">
	230	+ {e.results.filter((r) => r.party_id).slice(0, 5).map((r) => (
	231	+ <div key={r.candidate} className="grid grid-cols-[36px_1fr_48px_56px] items-center gap-2 text-[12.5px]"><span className="font-semibold" style={{ color: partyVar(r.party_id) }}>{partyLabel(r.party_id)}</span><div className="h-[6px] rounded-full bg-surface-3 overflow-hidden"><div className="h-full" style={{ width: `${r.share}%`, background: partyVar(r.party_id) }} /></div><span className="mono text-right">{r.share.toFixed(0)} %</span><span className={cls("mono text-right", (e.swing[r.party_id ?? ""] ?? 0) > 0 ? "text-ok" : "text-live")}>{e.swing[r.party_id ?? ""] !== undefined ? delta(e.swing[r.party_id ?? ""], 0, " pt") : ""}</span></div>
	232	+ ))}
	233	+ </div>
	234	+ <div className="mt-3 flex items-center justify-between text-[11.5px] text-ink-3"><span>{a ? `ajustement QC26 ${partyLabel(e.winner)} ${(a.adjLogit[e.winner ?? ""] ?? 0) >= 0 ? "+" : ""}${(a.adjLogit[e.winner ?? ""] ?? 0).toFixed(2)} logit` : "hors carte 2026"}</span><a href={e.url} target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" className="link">DGEQ</a></div>
	235	+ </div>
	236	+ );
	237	+ })}
	238	+ </div>
	239	+ <div className="text-[12.5px] text-ink-2">Swing moyen sur {b.n} partielles : {PARTY_IDS.map((id) => `${partyLabel(id)} ${b.meanSwing[id] !== null ? delta(b.meanSwing[id], 0, " pt") : "—"}`).join(" · ")}. Les partielles ont une participation faible et des dynamiques locales : le modèle n'en retient que l'excès local net du swing national, rétréci (κ {comp?.byelections?.ridings?.[0]?.kappa ?? 0.35}).</div>
	240	+ </div>
	241	+ );
	242	+}
	243	+
	244	+// ------------------------------------------------------------- MOMENTUM
	245	+export function MomentumPanel({ comp }: { comp: ForecastComponents }) {
	246	+ const m = comp.momentum;
	247	+ return (
	248	+ <div className="grid md:grid-cols-[1.1fr_1fr] gap-5">
	249	+ <div className="inset p-4">
	250	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-3">Nudge appliqué à la moyenne du vote (pp, somme nulle, borné ± {m.params.maxPp})</div>
	251	+ <DivergingBars values={m.shiftPp} max={m.params.maxPp} format={fmtPp} />
	252	+ </div>
	253	+ <div className="inset p-4 text-[12.5px]">
	254	+ <div className="eyebrow mb-3">Décomposition avant bornage</div>
	255	+ <table className="w-full"><thead><tr className="text-[11px] text-ink-3 mono uppercase"><th className="text-left font-medium pb-1">Parti</th><th className="text-right font-medium pb-1">Chef</th><th className="text-right font-medium pb-1">Attention</th><th className="text-right font-medium pb-1">Médias</th></tr></thead>
	256	+ <tbody>{PARTY_IDS.map((id) => <tr key={id} className="border-t border-border"><td className="py-1 font-semibold inline-flex items-center gap-1.5"><PartyDot id={id} />{partyLabel(id)}</td><td className="text-right mono">{m.parts.leader[id] !== undefined ? fmtPp(m.parts.leader[id]) : "—"}</td><td className="text-right mono">{m.parts.attention[id] !== undefined ? fmtPp(m.parts.attention[id]) : "—"}</td><td className="text-right mono">{m.parts.media[id] !== undefined ? fmtPp(m.parts.media[id]) : "—"}</td></tr>)}</tbody></table>
	257	+ <div className="text-[11px] text-ink-3 mt-3">κ chef {m.params.leaderKappa} · κ attention {m.params.attentionKappa} · κ médias {m.params.mediaKappa}. Le total est écrêté puis recentré : le momentum déplace du vote entre partis, il n'en crée pas.</div>
	258	+ </div>
	259	+ </div>
	260	+ );
	261	+}
	262	+
	263	+export function SignalsOverview({ comp, className }: { comp: ForecastComponents; className?: string }) {
	264	+ const items = [
	265	+ { k: "Sondages", v: `${comp.nSimulations ? int(comp.nSimulations) : ""} simulations`, on: true, href: "/sondages", sub: "filtre de Kalman, effets maison" },
	266	+ { k: "Marchés", v: comp.markets.enabled ? `poids ${Math.round(comp.markets.weight * 100)} %` : "inactif", on: comp.markets.enabled, href: "/signaux#marches", sub: comp.markets.marketVolume ? `${int(comp.markets.marketVolume)} $ de volume` : "Polymarket" },
	267	+ { k: "Fondamentaux", v: comp.fundamentals.enabled ? `poids ${Math.round(comp.fundamentals.weight * 100)} %` : "inactif", on: comp.fundamentals.enabled, href: "/signaux#fondamentaux", sub: comp.fundamentals.satisfaction !== undefined ? `satisfaction ${String(comp.fundamentals.satisfaction).replace(".", ",")} %` : "satisfaction du gouvernement" },
	268	+ { k: "Momentum", v: comp.momentum.enabled ? `± ${Math.max(...Object.values(comp.momentum.shiftPp).map(Math.abs)).toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")} pt max` : "inactif", on: comp.momentum.enabled, href: "/signaux#momentum", sub: "chef · attention · presse" },
	269	+ { k: "Partielles", v: comp.byelections.enabled ? `${comp.byelections.ridings.length} circonscriptions` : "aucune", on: comp.byelections.enabled, href: "/signaux#partielles", sub: "excès de swing local" },
	270	+ ];
	271	+ return (
	272	+ <div className={cls("grid grid-cols-2 md:grid-cols-5 gap-3", className)}>
	273	+ {items.map((it) => (
	274	+ <Link key={it.k} href={it.href} className="card card-hover p-3.5 block">
	275	+ <div className="flex items-center gap-1.5 text-[11px] mono uppercase tracking-[0.06em] text-ink-2"><span className={cls("w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full", it.on ? "bg-ok" : "bg-ink-3")} />{it.k}</div>
	276	+ <div className="font-semibold text-[15px] mt-1.5">{it.v}</div>
	277	+ <div className="text-[12px] text-ink-3">{it.sub}</div>
	278	+ </Link>
	279	+ ))}
	280	+ </div>
	281	+ );
	282	+}
	283	+
	284	+export { partyName };

modified web/src/components/status-strip.tsx +2 −2

		`@@ -4,14 +4,14 @@ import { cls, dateTimeFr } from "@/lib/format";`
4	4
5	5	interface Status { components: Record<string, string>; latestRun: { id: number; completedAt: string \| null } \| null; serverTime: string }
6	6
7		−const LABELS: Record<string, string> = { pollWatcher: "Poll watcher", forecastEngine: "Forecast engine", electionFeed: "Election feed", documentWatcher: "Document watcher", officialData: "Données officielles" };
	7	+const LABELS: Record<string, string> = { pollWatcher: "Poll watcher", forecastEngine: "Forecast engine", electionFeed: "Election feed", documentWatcher: "Document watcher", officialData: "Données officielles", signals: "Signaux" };
8	8
9	9	export async function StatusStrip() {
10	10	const st = await apiSafe<Status>("/api/status", { revalidate: 60 });
11	11	return (
12	12	<div className="border-t border-border">
13	13	<div className="mx-auto max-w-[1280px] px-4 md:px-6 py-3 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-5 gap-y-2 text-[11.5px] text-ink-3">
14		− <Link href="/statut" className="eyebrow !text-[10.5px] hover:text-ink">QC26 Data Status</Link>
	14	+ <Link href="/statut" className="eyebrow !text-[10.5px] hover:text-ink">QC26 · statut des données</Link>
15	15	{st ? Object.entries(st.components).map(([k, v]) => (
16	16	<span key={k} className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5">
17	17	<span className={cls("w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full", v === "operational" ? "bg-ok" : v === "ready" ? "bg-accent" : "bg-warn")} aria-hidden />

added web/src/components/theme.tsx +35 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@`
	1	+"use client";
	2	+
	3	+import { useEffect, useState } from "react";
	4	+
	5	+type Theme = "light" \| "dark";
	6	+
	7	+/** Script inline (avant hydratation) : applique le thème mémorisé ou celui du système, sans flash. */
	8	+export const THEME_INIT_SCRIPT = `(function(){try{var t=localStorage.getItem('qc26-theme');if(t!=='light'&&t!=='dark'){t=window.matchMedia('(prefers-color-scheme: dark)').matches?'dark':'light'}document.documentElement.setAttribute('data-theme',t);var m=document.querySelector('meta[name="theme-color"]');if(m){m.setAttribute('content',t==='dark'?'#0e1013':'#f6f5f1')}}catch(e){}})();`;
	9	+
	10	+function current(): Theme {
	11	+ if (typeof document === "undefined") return "light";
	12	+ return (document.documentElement.getAttribute("data-theme") as Theme) \|\| "light";
	13	+}
	14	+
	15	+export function ThemeToggle({ className }: { className?: string }) {
	16	+ const [theme, setTheme] = useState<Theme>("light");
	17	+ // eslint-disable-next-line react-hooks/set-state-in-effect -- synchronisation unique avec l'attribut posé avant hydratation
	18	+ useEffect(() => { setTheme(current()); }, []);
	19	+ const toggle = () => {
	20	+ const next: Theme = current() === "dark" ? "light" : "dark";
	21	+ document.documentElement.setAttribute("data-theme", next);
	22	+ try { localStorage.setItem("qc26-theme", next); } catch { /* privé */ }
	23	+ document.querySelector('meta[name="theme-color"]')?.setAttribute("content", next === "dark" ? "#0e1013" : "#f6f5f1");
	24	+ setTheme(next);
	25	+ };
	26	+ return (
	27	+ <button onClick={toggle} className={className ?? "w-9 h-9 inline-flex items-center justify-center rounded-[9px] border border-border hover:bg-surface-2 text-ink-2"} aria-label={theme === "dark" ? "Passer au thème clair" : "Passer au thème sombre"} title={theme === "dark" ? "Thème clair" : "Thème sombre"}>
	28	+ {theme === "dark" ? (
	29	+ <svg width="16" height="16" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" strokeWidth="2" strokeLinecap="round" aria-hidden><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="4" /><path d="M12 2v2M12 20v2M4.9 4.9l1.4 1.4M17.7 17.7l1.4 1.4M2 12h2M20 12h2M4.9 19.1l1.4-1.4M17.7 6.3l1.4-1.4" /></svg>
	30	+ ) : (
	31	+ <svg width="16" height="16" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" strokeWidth="2" strokeLinecap="round" strokeLinejoin="round" aria-hidden><path d="M21 12.8A9 9 0 1 1 11.2 3a7 7 0 0 0 9.8 9.8z" /></svg>
	32	+ )}
	33	+ </button>
	34	+ );
	35	+}

added web/src/components/trend-chart.tsx +115 −0

		`@@ -0,0 +1,115 @@`
	1	+"use client";
	2	+
	3	+import { useMemo, useRef, useState } from "react";
	4	+import type { TrendPoint } from "@/lib/api";
	5	+import { cls, dateFr } from "@/lib/format";
	6	+import { PARTY_IDS, partyLabel, partyVar } from "@/lib/parties";
	7	+
	8	+/** Tendance interactive : réticule + infobulle (moyenne QC26 ± bande 80 %, sondages du jour). */
	9	+export function TrendChartInteractive({ trend, polls, from, height = 320, ids = PARTY_IDS, markers = [], election2022, className, showBand = true }: {
	10	+ trend: TrendPoint[]; polls?: { date: string; values: Record<string, number>; id?: string; pollster?: string }[]; from?: string; height?: number; ids?: string[];
	11	+ markers?: { date: string; label: string }[]; election2022?: Record<string, number> \| null; className?: string; showBand?: boolean;
	12	+}) {
	13	+ const [range, setRange] = useState<string \| undefined>(from);
	14	+ const pts = useMemo(() => (range ? trend.filter((t) => t.date >= range) : trend), [trend, range]);
	15	+ const [hover, setHover] = useState<number \| null>(null);
	16	+ const svgRef = useRef<SVGSVGElement>(null);
	17	+ const W = 900, H = height, pl = 34, pr = 84, pt = 14, pb = 28;
	18	+ if (pts.length < 2) return <div className="text-ink-3 text-sm">Pas assez de données.</div>;
	19	+ const t0 = new Date(pts[0].date).getTime(), t1 = new Date(pts[pts.length - 1].date).getTime();
	20	+ const x = (d: string) => pl + ((new Date(d).getTime() - t0) / Math.max(1, t1 - t0)) * (W - pl - pr);
	21	+ const visPolls = (polls ?? []).filter((p) => p.date >= pts[0].date && p.date <= pts[pts.length - 1].date);
	22	+ const allVals = pts.flatMap((p) => ids.map((id) => p.mean[id] ?? 0));
	23	+ const pollVals = visPolls.flatMap((p) => ids.map((id) => p.values[id] ?? 0));
	24	+ const ymax = Math.min(100, Math.ceil((Math.max(...allVals, ...pollVals, 10) + 4) / 5) * 5);
	25	+ const y = (v: number) => pt + (1 - v / ymax) * (H - pt - pb);
	26	+ const ticks = Array.from({ length: Math.floor(ymax / 10) + 1 }, (_, i) => i * 10);
	27	+ const months: { d: Date; label: string }[] = [];
	28	+ const spanDays = (t1 - t0) / 86400000;
	29	+ const step = spanDays > 900 ? 6 : spanDays > 400 ? 3 : 1;
	30	+ const cur = new Date(t0); cur.setDate(1); cur.setMonth(cur.getMonth() + 1);
	31	+ while (cur.getTime() <= t1) {
	32	+ if (cur.getMonth() % step === 0) months.push({ d: new Date(cur), label: cur.toLocaleDateString("fr-CA", { month: "short", year: spanDays > 200 ? "2-digit" : undefined }) });
	33	+ cur.setMonth(cur.getMonth() + 1);
	34	+ }
	35	+ const path = (id: string) => pts.map((p, i) => `${i ? "L" : "M"}${x(p.date).toFixed(1)},${y(p.mean[id] ?? 0).toFixed(1)}`).join(" ");
	36	+ const band = (id: string) => {
	37	+ const up = pts.map((p) => `${x(p.date).toFixed(1)},${y((p.mean[id] ?? 0) + 1.28 * (p.sd[id] ?? 0)).toFixed(1)}`);
	38	+ const dn = [...pts].reverse().map((p) => `${x(p.date).toFixed(1)},${y((p.mean[id] ?? 0) - 1.28 * (p.sd[id] ?? 0)).toFixed(1)}`);
	39	+ return `M${up.join(" L")} L${dn.join(" L")} Z`;
	40	+ };
	41	+ const last = pts[pts.length - 1];
	42	+ const labels = ids.map((id) => ({ id, v: last.mean[id] ?? 0 })).sort((a, b) => b.v - a.v);
	43	+ const labelY = labels.reduce<number[]>((acc, l) => { const prev = acc.length ? acc[acc.length - 1] : -Infinity; const yy = y(l.v); acc.push(yy - prev < 13 ? prev + 13 : yy); return acc; }, []);
	44	+ const onMove = (e: React.PointerEvent) => {
	45	+ const r = svgRef.current!.getBoundingClientRect();
	46	+ const px = ((e.clientX - r.left) / r.width) * W;
	47	+ const t = t0 + ((px - pl) / (W - pl - pr)) * (t1 - t0);
	48	+ let best = 0, bd = Infinity;
	49	+ pts.forEach((p, i) => { const d = Math.abs(new Date(p.date).getTime() - t); if (d < bd) { bd = d; best = i; } });
	50	+ setHover(best);
	51	+ };
	52	+ const hp = hover !== null ? pts[hover] : null;
	53	+ const hpolls = hp ? visPolls.filter((p) => Math.abs(new Date(p.date).getTime() - new Date(hp.date).getTime()) <= 2 * 86400000) : [];
	54	+ const ref = new Date(trend[trend.length - 1].date).getTime(); // date du dernier point (déterministe, pas d'horloge au rendu)
	55	+ const ranges: { label: string; from?: string }[] = [
	56	+ { label: "Campagne", from: "2026-08-20" }, { label: "6 mois", from: new Date(ref - 182 * 86400000).toISOString().slice(0, 10) },
	57	+ { label: "1 an", from: new Date(ref - 365 * 86400000).toISOString().slice(0, 10) }, { label: "Depuis 2022" },
	58	+ ];
	59	+ return (
	60	+ <div className={cls("relative", className)}>
	61	+ <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-1.5 mb-3">
	62	+ {ranges.map((r) => <button key={r.label} onClick={() => { setRange(r.from); setHover(null); }} className={cls("chip !py-1 !px-2.5 !text-[12px]", (range ?? "") === (r.from ?? "") && "chip-active")}>{r.label}</button>)}
	63	+ <span className="text-[12px] text-ink-3 ml-auto hidden sm:inline">Survolez pour lire la moyenne QC26 du jour</span>
	64	+ </div>
	65	+ <svg ref={svgRef} viewBox={`0 0 ${W} ${H}`} className="w-full h-auto touch-pan-y" role="img" aria-label="Évolution des intentions de vote (moyenne QC26) et sondages" onPointerMove={onMove} onPointerLeave={() => setHover(null)}>
	66	+ {ticks.map((t) => (
	67	+ <g key={t}>
	68	+ <line x1={pl} x2={W - pr} y1={y(t)} y2={y(t)} stroke="var(--grid)" strokeWidth={1} />
	69	+ <text x={pl - 6} y={y(t) + 3.5} fontSize={10.5} textAnchor="end" fill="var(--text-3)" fontFamily="var(--font-mono)">{t}</text>
	70	+ </g>
	71	+ ))}
	72	+ {months.map((m, i) => (
	73	+ <g key={i}>
	74	+ <line x1={x(m.d.toISOString())} x2={x(m.d.toISOString())} y1={pt} y2={H - pb + 4} stroke="var(--grid)" strokeWidth={1} />
	75	+ <text x={x(m.d.toISOString())} y={H - 8} fontSize={10.5} textAnchor="middle" fill="var(--text-3)" fontFamily="var(--font-mono)">{m.label}</text>
	76	+ </g>
	77	+ ))}
	78	+ {markers.filter((m) => new Date(m.date).getTime() >= t0 && new Date(m.date).getTime() <= t1).map((m, i) => (
	79	+ <g key={`m${i}`}>
	80	+ <line x1={x(m.date)} x2={x(m.date)} y1={pt} y2={H - pb} stroke="var(--text-2)" strokeWidth={1} strokeDasharray="2 3" />
	81	+ <text x={x(m.date) + 4} y={pt + 9} fontSize={9.5} fill="var(--text-2)" fontFamily="var(--font-mono)">{m.label}</text>
	82	+ </g>
	83	+ ))}
	84	+ {visPolls.map((p, i) => ids.map((id) => p.values[id] === undefined ? null : (
	85	+ <circle key={`${i}-${id}`} cx={x(p.date)} cy={y(p.values[id])} r={2.6} fill={partyVar(id)} opacity={0.3} />
	86	+ )))}
	87	+ {showBand && ids.map((id) => <path key={`b${id}`} d={band(id)} fill={partyVar(id)} opacity={0.1} />)}
	88	+ {ids.map((id) => <path key={id} d={path(id)} fill="none" stroke={partyVar(id)} strokeWidth={2} strokeLinejoin="round" strokeLinecap="round" />)}
	89	+ {election2022 && ids.map((id) => election2022[id] !== undefined && (
	90	+ <rect key={`e22${id}`} x={pl - 2} y={y(election2022[id]) - 1.5} width={5} height={3} fill={partyVar(id)} />
	91	+ ))}
	92	+ {hp ? (
	93	+ <g>
	94	+ <line x1={x(hp.date)} x2={x(hp.date)} y1={pt} y2={H - pb} stroke="var(--text)" strokeWidth={1} strokeOpacity={0.6} />
	95	+ {ids.map((id) => <circle key={`h${id}`} cx={x(hp.date)} cy={y(hp.mean[id] ?? 0)} r={4} fill={partyVar(id)} stroke="var(--surface)" strokeWidth={2} />)}
	96	+ </g>
	97	+ ) : ids.map((id) => <circle key={`e${id}`} cx={x(last.date)} cy={y(last.mean[id] ?? 0)} r={3.5} fill={partyVar(id)} stroke="var(--surface)" strokeWidth={2} />)}
	98	+ {labels.map((l, i) => (
	99	+ <text key={l.id} x={W - pr + 8} y={labelY[i] + 4} fontSize={12} fontWeight={600} fill="var(--text)" fontFamily="var(--font-sans)">
	100	+ <tspan fill={partyVar(l.id)}>■</tspan> {partyLabel(l.id)} <tspan fontFamily="var(--font-mono)">{(hp ? hp.mean[l.id] ?? 0 : l.v).toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")}</tspan>
	101	+ </text>
	102	+ ))}
	103	+ </svg>
	104	+ {hp && (
	105	+ <div className="chart-tip" style={{ left: `min(calc(${((x(hp.date) / W) * 100).toFixed(1)}% + 12px), calc(100% - 200px))`, top: 40 }}>
	106	+ <div className="font-semibold text-ink mb-1">{dateFr(hp.date, { day: "numeric", month: "short", year: "numeric" })}</div>
	107	+ {ids.map((id) => ({ id, v: hp.mean[id] ?? 0, sd: hp.sd[id] ?? 0 })).sort((a, b) => b.v - a.v).map((r) => (
	108	+ <div key={r.id} className="flex items-center justify-between gap-4"><span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5"><span className="w-2 h-2 rounded-full" style={{ background: partyVar(r.id) }} />{partyLabel(r.id)}</span><span className="mono">{r.v.toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")} <span className="text-ink-3">± {(1.28 * r.sd).toFixed(1).replace(".", ",")}</span></span></div>
	109	+ ))}
	110	+ {hpolls.length > 0 && <div className="text-ink-3 mt-1 pt-1 border-t border-border">{hpolls.length} sondage{hpolls.length > 1 ? "s" : ""} à ± 2 j{hpolls[0].pollster ? ` · ${hpolls.slice(0, 2).map((p) => p.pollster).join(", ")}` : ""}</div>}
	111	+ </div>
	112	+ )}
	113	+ </div>
	114	+ );
	115	+}

modified web/src/components/ui.tsx +45 −22

		`@@ -2,13 +2,27 @@ import Link from "next/link";`
2	2	import type { ReactNode } from "react";
3	3	import { cls, dateTimeFr, relTime } from "@/lib/format";
4	4
5		−export function SectionHeader({ eyebrow, title, description, action, id, className }: { eyebrow?: string; title: string; description?: ReactNode; action?: ReactNode; id?: string; className?: string }) {
	5	+export function SectionHeader({ eyebrow, title, description, action, id, className, num }: { eyebrow?: string; title: string; description?: ReactNode; action?: ReactNode; id?: string; className?: string; num?: string }) {
6	6	return (
7		− <div id={id} className={cls("flex flex-wrap items-end justify-between gap-3 mb-4 scroll-mt-20", className)}>
	7	+ <div id={id} className={cls("flex flex-wrap items-end justify-between gap-3 mb-5 scroll-mt-24", className)}>
8	8	<div className="min-w-0">
9		− {eyebrow && <div className="eyebrow mb-1">{eyebrow}</div>}
10		− <h2 className="text-[22px] md:text-[26px] font-bold tracking-tight leading-tight">{title}</h2>
11		− {description && <p className="text-ink-2 text-[14px] mt-1 max-w-2xl leading-relaxed">{description}</p>}
	9	+ {(eyebrow \|\| num) && <div className="flex items-center gap-2 mb-1.5">{num && <span className="section-num">{num}</span>}{eyebrow && <span className="eyebrow">{eyebrow}</span>}</div>}
	10	+ <h2 className="display text-[26px] md:text-[32px] leading-[1.05]">{title}</h2>
	11	+ {description && <p className="text-ink-2 text-[14.5px] mt-2 max-w-2xl leading-relaxed">{description}</p>}
	12	+ </div>
	13	+ {action && <div className="shrink-0">{action}</div>}
	14	+ </div>
	15	+ );
	16	+}
	17	+
	18	+export function PageTitle({ eyebrow, title, lede, action, children }: { eyebrow?: ReactNode; title: ReactNode; lede?: ReactNode; action?: ReactNode; children?: ReactNode }) {
	19	+ return (
	20	+ <div className="flex flex-wrap items-end justify-between gap-6">
	21	+ <div className="min-w-0 max-w-3xl">
	22	+ {eyebrow && <div className="eyebrow eyebrow-accent">{eyebrow}</div>}
	23	+ <h1 className="display text-[40px] md:text-[60px] mt-3">{title}</h1>
	24	+ {lede && <p className="lede mt-4">{lede}</p>}
	25	+ {children}
12	26	</div>
13	27	{action && <div className="shrink-0">{action}</div>}
14	28	</div>
		`@@ -19,14 +33,14 @@ export function Card({ children, className, pad = true }: { children: ReactNode;`
19	33	return <div className={cls("card", pad && "p-4 md:p-5", className)}>{children}</div>;
20	34	}
21	35
22		−export function Metric({ label, value, sub, delta, className, size = "md", color }: { label: string; value: ReactNode; sub?: ReactNode; delta?: ReactNode; className?: string; size?: "sm" \| "md" \| "lg" \| "xl"; color?: string }) {
23		− const vs = { sm: "text-xl", md: "text-[28px]", lg: "text-[40px]", xl: "text-[64px] md:text-[88px]" }[size];
	36	+export function Metric({ label, value, sub, delta, className, size = "md", color, serif = true }: { label: string; value: ReactNode; sub?: ReactNode; delta?: ReactNode; className?: string; size?: "sm" \| "md" \| "lg" \| "xl"; color?: string; serif?: boolean }) {
	37	+ const vs = { sm: "text-[22px]", md: "text-[30px]", lg: "text-[44px]", xl: "text-[72px] md:text-[96px]" }[size];
24	38	return (
25	39	<div className={cls("min-w-0", className)}>
26	40	<div className="eyebrow">{label}</div>
27		− <div className={cls("num display mt-1", vs)} style={color ? { color } : undefined}>{value}</div>
	41	+ <div className={cls(serif ? "figure" : "num font-bold tracking-tight", "mt-1.5", vs)} style={color ? { color } : undefined}>{value}</div>
28	42	{(sub \|\| delta) && (
29		− <div className="flex items-baseline gap-2 mt-1 text-[13px] text-ink-2">
	43	+ <div className="flex items-baseline gap-2 mt-1.5 text-[13px] text-ink-2">
30	44	{delta}
31	45	{sub && <span>{sub}</span>}
32	46	</div>
		`@@ -43,7 +57,7 @@ export function MetricDelta({ value, digits = 1, suffix = " pt", invert = false`
43	57	const good = invert ? !up : up;
44	58	const txt = zero ? "0" : (up ? "+" : "−") + Math.abs(value).toFixed(digits).replace(".", ",");
45	59	return (
46		− <span className={cls("num inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-[12.5px] px-1.5 py-[1px] rounded-[5px]", zero ? "text-ink-3 bg-surface-2" : good ? "text-ok bg-[rgba(21,128,61,.09)]" : "text-live bg-[rgba(220,38,38,.08)]")} aria-label={`variation ${txt}${suffix}`}>
	60	+ <span className={cls("num inline-flex items-center gap-0.5 font-semibold text-[12px] px-1.5 py-[2px] rounded-[6px] mono", zero ? "text-ink-3 bg-surface-2" : good ? "text-ok bg-ok-soft" : "text-live bg-live-soft")} aria-label={`variation ${txt}${suffix}`}>
47	61	{!zero && (up ? "▲" : "▼")} {txt}{suffix}
48	62	</span>
49	63	);
		`@@ -53,12 +67,12 @@ export function Badge({ children, tone = "neutral", className, title }: { childr`
53	67	const t = {
54	68	neutral: "bg-surface-2 text-ink-2 border-border",
55	69	accent: "bg-accent-soft text-accent border-transparent",
56		− live: "bg-[rgba(220,38,38,.08)] text-live border-transparent",
57		− ok: "bg-[rgba(21,128,61,.09)] text-ok border-transparent",
58		− warn: "bg-[rgba(180,83,9,.1)] text-warn border-transparent",
59		− ink: "bg-brand text-white border-transparent",
	70	+ live: "bg-live-soft text-live border-transparent",
	71	+ ok: "bg-ok-soft text-ok border-transparent",
	72	+ warn: "bg-warn-soft text-warn border-transparent",
	73	+ ink: "bg-brand text-ink-inverse border-transparent",
60	74	}[tone];
61		− return <span title={title} className={cls("inline-flex items-center gap-1 rounded-[6px] border px-2 py-[3px] text-[11px] font-semibold tracking-wide uppercase", t, className)}>{children}</span>;
	75	+ return <span title={title} className={cls("inline-flex items-center gap-1 rounded-[6px] border px-2 py-[3px] text-[10.5px] font-semibold tracking-[0.06em] uppercase mono", t, className)}>{children}</span>;
62	76	}
63	77
64	78	export function LiveBadge({ label = "Direct" }: { label?: string }) {
		`@@ -91,10 +105,10 @@ export function Timestamp({ iso, prefix = "Mise à jour", className, relative =`
91	105	export function SourceBadge({ source }: { source: { name: string; url?: string \| null; archiveUrl?: string \| null; retrievedAt?: string \| null; page?: number \| null; detail?: string \| null; tier?: string \| null } }) {
92	106	return (
93	107	<details className="relative inline-block group">
94		− <summary className="list-none cursor-pointer inline-flex items-center gap-1 text-[11px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wide text-ink-2 border border-border rounded-[6px] px-2 py-[3px] hover:bg-surface-2 select-none">
95		− <span aria-hidden>⌕</span> Source
	108	+ <summary className="list-none cursor-pointer inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 text-[10.5px] mono font-semibold uppercase tracking-[0.06em] text-ink-2 border border-border rounded-[6px] px-2 py-[3px] hover:bg-surface-2 select-none">
	109	+ <svg width="11" height="11" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" strokeWidth="2.2" strokeLinecap="round" aria-hidden><circle cx="11" cy="11" r="7" /><path d="m20 20-3.5-3.5" /></svg> Source
96	110	</summary>
97		− <div className="absolute z-30 left-0 mt-2 w-[300px] max-w-[calc(100vw-2rem)] card p-3 text-[12.5px] shadow-md text-left leading-relaxed">
	111	+ <div className="absolute z-30 left-0 mt-2 w-[320px] max-w-[calc(100vw-2rem)] card p-3.5 text-[12.5px] shadow-md text-left leading-relaxed">
98	112	<div className="font-semibold text-ink">{source.name}</div>
99	113	{source.detail && <div className="text-ink-2 mt-1">{source.detail}</div>}
100	114	<dl className="mt-2 grid grid-cols-[auto_1fr] gap-x-3 gap-y-1 text-ink-2">
		`@@ -123,7 +137,7 @@ export function ProbabilityBar({ p, color, label, height = 10, showValue = true,`
123	137
124	138	export function Pill({ href, children, active, className }: { href: string; children: ReactNode; active?: boolean; className?: string }) {
125	139	return (
126		− <Link href={href} className={cls("inline-flex items-center rounded-full px-3 py-1.5 text-[13px] font-medium border transition-colors", active ? "bg-brand text-white border-brand" : "bg-surface border-border hover:bg-surface-2", className)}>
	140	+ <Link href={href} className={cls("chip", active && "chip-active", className)}>
127	141	{children}
128	142	</Link>
129	143	);
		`@@ -131,9 +145,9 @@ export function Pill({ href, children, active, className }: { href: string; chil`
131	145
132	146	export function Empty({ title, children }: { title: string; children?: ReactNode }) {
133	147	return (
134		− <div className="card p-8 text-center">
135		− <div className="font-semibold">{title}</div>
136		− {children && <div className="text-ink-2 text-[14px] mt-1">{children}</div>}
	148	+ <div className="card p-10 text-center">
	149	+ <div className="display text-[22px]">{title}</div>
	150	+ {children && <div className="text-ink-2 text-[14px] mt-2">{children}</div>}
137	151	</div>
138	152	);
139	153	}
		`@@ -158,3 +172,12 @@ export function KV({ items, className }: { items: [ReactNode, ReactNode][]; clas`
158	172	</dl>
159	173	);
160	174	}
	175	+
	176	+/** Petite étiquette « signal » : nom de la source, fraîcheur, statut. */
	177	+export function SourceChip({ name, at, tone = "neutral" }: { name: string; at?: string \| null; tone?: "neutral" \| "ok" \| "warn" }) {
	178	+ return (
	179	+ <span className={cls("inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 text-[11px] mono uppercase tracking-[0.06em] rounded-[6px] px-2 py-[3px] border", tone === "ok" ? "border-transparent bg-ok-soft text-ok" : tone === "warn" ? "border-transparent bg-warn-soft text-warn" : "border-border text-ink-2")}>
	180	+ <span className={cls("w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full", tone === "ok" ? "bg-ok" : tone === "warn" ? "bg-warn" : "bg-ink-3")} aria-hidden />{name}{at && <span className="text-ink-3 normal-case tracking-normal">· {relTime(at)}</span>}
	181	+ </span>
	182	+ );
	183	+}

modified web/src/lib/api.ts +24 −1

		`@@ -120,18 +120,41 @@ export interface Forecast {`
120	120	days_to_election: number;
121	121	battlegrounds: number[];
122	122	ridings: Record<string, { fav: string; p: number; second: string; margin: number }>;
	123	+ components?: ForecastComponents;
123	124	};
124	125	diff: {
125	126	previous_run: number;
126	127	previous_at: string \| null;
127	128	changes: Record<string, { vote: number; seats: number; p_majority: number; p_most_seats: number }>;
128	129	flips: { code: number; from: string; to: string; p: number }[];
129		− causes: { kind: string; detail: string \| string[] }[];
	130	+ causes: { kind: string; detail: string \| string[] \| Record<string, number> }[];
130	131	} \| null;
131	132	parties: Record<string, PartyForecast>;
132	133	trend: TrendPoint[] \| null;
133	134	}
134	135
	136	+export interface ComponentParties { parties: Record<string, ForecastSummaryParty & { vote95?: [number, number] }>; p_minority: number }
	137	+export interface ForecastComponents {
	138	+ pollsOnly: ComponentParties;
	139	+ modelNoMarkets: ComponentParties;
	140	+ fundamentals: { enabled: boolean; weight: number; daysLeft?: number; satisfaction?: number; satisfactionPolls?: number; incumbent?: string; incumbentPrior?: number; prior?: Record<string, number>; shiftPp?: Record<string, number>; params?: Record<string, number> };
	141	+ momentum: { enabled: boolean; shiftPp: Record<string, number>; parts: { leader: Record<string, number>; attention: Record<string, number>; media: Record<string, number> }; params: Record<string, number> };
	142	+ markets: { enabled: boolean; weight: number; bandWeight?: number; ess?: number; constraints?: string[]; achieved?: Record<string, Record<string, number>>; marketAsOf?: string \| null; marketVolume?: number; mostSeatsMarket?: Record<string, number>; majorityMarket?: Record<string, number>; seatBandsImpliedMean?: Record<string, number> };
	143	+ byelections: { enabled: boolean; ridings: { code: number; riding: string; date: string; adjLogit: Record<string, number>; kappa: number }[] };
	144	+ signals: { attention: { enabled?: boolean; asOf?: string; share7?: Record<string, number>; share28?: Record<string, number>; delta?: Record<string, number> }; media: { enabled?: boolean; asOf?: string; articles?: number; shareOfVoice?: Record<string, number>; tone?: Record<string, number \| null>; counts?: Record<string, number> }; fundamentals: { enabled?: boolean; satisfaction?: number \| null; satisfactionNet?: number \| null; bestPmShare?: Record<string, number \| null>; leaderNetFavorable?: Record<string, number \| null>; secondChoice?: Record<string, number \| null>; sovereigntyYes?: number \| null }; markets: { asOf?: string \| null; mostSeats?: Record<string, number>; majority?: Record<string, number>; volume?: number } \| null; byelections: { n: number; meanSwing: Record<string, number \| null> \| null } };
	145	+ ess: number;
	146	+ nSimulations: number;
	147	+}
	148	+
	149	+export interface MarketRow { id: string; question: string; kind: string; party: string \| null; price: number; bid: number \| null; ask: number \| null; volume: number \| null; liquidity: number \| null; url: string \| null; updatedAt: string \| null; band: [number \| null, number \| null] \| null; place: number \| null }
	150	+export interface MarketsPayload { source: string; asOf: string \| null; mostSeats: Record<string, number>; mostSeatsRaw?: Record<string, number>; majority: Record<string, number>; seatBands: Record<string, { bands: { lo: number; hi: number \| null; p: number }[]; impliedMean: number }>; place: Record<string, Record<string, number>>; volume: number; markets: MarketRow[]; history: Record<string, { date: string; p: number }[]> }
	151	+export interface AttentionPayload { enabled: boolean; asOf?: string; share7?: Record<string, number>; share28?: Record<string, number>; delta?: Record<string, number>; series?: { date: string; share: Record<string, number>; views: Record<string, number> }[]; election?: { date: string; views: number }[]; pages?: Record<string, string[]> }
	152	+export interface MediaItem { id: number; title: string; domain: string \| null; url: string; publishedAt: string; parties: Record<string, number> \| null; topic: string \| null; summary: string \| null }
	153	+export interface MediaPayload { enabled: boolean; window: number; asOf: string; articles: number; shareOfVoice: Record<string, number>; tone: Record<string, number \| null>; counts: Record<string, number>; gdelt: Record<string, { volume7: number \| null; volume28: number \| null; tone7: number \| null }>; series: { date: string; articles?: Record<string, number>; share_of_voice?: Record<string, number>; tone?: Record<string, number> }[]; latest: MediaItem[]; topics: Record<string, number> }
	154	+export interface FundamentalsPayload { enabled: boolean; asOf: string; incumbent: string; satisfaction: number \| null; satisfactionNet: number \| null; satisfactionPolls: number; satisfactionBilan: number \| null; bestPmShare: Record<string, number \| null>; bestPm: Record<string, number \| null>; leaderNetFavorable: Record<string, number \| null>; leaderFavorable: Record<string, number \| null>; changeLeader: Record<string, number \| null>; secondChoice: Record<string, number \| null>; sovereigntyYes: number \| null; sovereigntyPolls: number; series: Record<string, { date: string; party: string \| null; value: number; poll: string \| null; pollster: string \| null }[]>; params: Record<string, number> }
	155	+export interface ByElectionsPayload { enabled: boolean; n: number; meanSwing: Record<string, number \| null>; byElections: { id: string; date: string; riding: string \| null; code: number; url: string; turnout: number \| null; winner: string \| null; results: { candidate: string; party_label: string; party_id: string \| null; votes: number; share: number }[]; previous: Record<string, number> \| null; swing: Record<string, number>; archiveSha: string \| null }[] }
	156	+export interface SignalsPayload { asOf: string; runId: number \| null; components: ForecastComponents \| null; markets: MarketsPayload; attention: AttentionPayload; media: MediaPayload; fundamentals: FundamentalsPayload; byElections: ByElectionsPayload }
	157	+
135	158	export interface Party extends RegistryParty {
136	159	leader: string \| null;
137	160	leaderSince: string \| null;

modified web/src/lib/parties.ts +11 −0

		`@@ -51,6 +51,17 @@ export function sortParties<T>(rec: Record<string, T>, key: (v: T) => number, in`
51	51	.filter(([id]) => includeOthers \|\| id !== "aut")
52	52	.sort((a, b) => key(b[1]) - key(a[1]));
53	53	}
	54	+/** Couleur de parti via variable CSS (adaptée au thème clair/sombre dans globals.css). À utiliser dans l'UI ;
	55	+ * `partyColor` (hex) reste pour les images OG (satori) et les exports. */
	56	+export function partyVar(id: string \| null \| undefined): string {
	57	+ if (!id) return "var(--p-none)";
	58	+ return PARTY_BY_ID[id] ? `var(--p-${id})` : "var(--p-aut)";
	59	+}
	60	+/** Couleur de parti mélangée à la surface : alpha 0…1 → color-mix (thème-safe). */
	61	+export function partyAlpha(id: string \| null \| undefined, alpha: number): string {
	62	+ const a = Math.max(0, Math.min(1, alpha));
	63	+ return `color-mix(in srgb, ${partyVar(id)} ${Math.round(a * 100)}%, transparent)`;
	64	+}
54	65	/** Couleur atténuée par une probabilité (incertitude → moins d'opacité). */
55	66	export function withAlpha(hex: string, alpha: number): string {
56	67	const h = hex.replace("#", "");
57	68