spb/qwhpi Public
QHPI — Quebec Housing Price Index: quality-adjusted, hierarchically pooled housing price indexes.
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1<!--2=============================================================================3QWHPI — Quebec Weekly Housing Price Index4Author : Simon-Pierre Boucher5Contact : contact@spboucher.ai6File : outputs/reports/validation_report.md7Purpose : Step 6 validation report (generated by 06_validation.py)8=============================================================================9-->1011# QWHPI validation report1213## 1. Repeat-sales (BMN) vs hedonic index1415- quebec/unifamilial: Δcorr=0.691, end levels RS=161.5 vs hedonic=157.916- quebec/condo: Δcorr=0.322, end levels RS=133.8 vs hedonic=140.017- quebec/plex: Δcorr=0.454, end levels RS=149.6 vs hedonic=158.518- montreal/condo: Δcorr=0.000, end levels RS=121.8 vs hedonic=128.719- montreal/unifamilial: Δcorr=0.264, end levels RS=125.6 vs hedonic=132.820- quebec-city/unifamilial: Δcorr=0.073, end levels RS=165.7 vs hedonic=166.02122## 2. Downsampling experiment — Montréal condo lab2324- 100 tx/wk: RMSE=0.317% bias=-0.046% vol_ratio=1.051 turn_agree=0.861 CI95_cov=1.025- 50 tx/wk: RMSE=0.636% bias=-0.177% vol_ratio=0.987 turn_agree=0.799 CI95_cov=0.99226- 25 tx/wk: RMSE=0.799% bias=0.002% vol_ratio=0.762 turn_agree=0.771 CI95_cov=0.97727- 15 tx/wk: RMSE=1.15% bias=-0.154% vol_ratio=0.449 turn_agree=0.778 CI95_cov=0.88128- 10 tx/wk: RMSE=1.361% bias=-0.18% vol_ratio=0.358 turn_agree=0.735 CI95_cov=0.82829- 5 tx/wk: RMSE=1.633% bias=0.189% vol_ratio=0.457 turn_agree=0.685 CI95_cov=0.8563031Reading: RMSE vs the full-sample (~145 tx/wk) smoothed path; CI coverage of the deviation posterior; turning points on 4-week MA.3233## 3. Composition-shock simulation (province unifamilial)3435- Shock: drop 70% of below-median floorArea sales in 2024-H1 (12,406 of 439,118 rows removed)36- Raw weekly median moves by +11.74% in shocked weeks (must move)37- Hedonic time-dummy moves by -0.74% (must stay ~0)3839## 4. Weekly vs monthly (same methodology)4041- quebec/unifamilial: weekly signal SD=3.665%, noise SD=0.0%, monthly ΔSD=3.198%, real-time revision SD=0.0%42- quebec/condo: weekly signal SD=3.778%, noise SD=0.0%, monthly ΔSD=2.993%, real-time revision SD=0.0%43- montreal/condo: weekly signal SD=3.782%, noise SD=3.583%, monthly ΔSD=3.031%, real-time revision SD=3.999%44