---
project: anomaly-atlas
document: F002 confidence
author: Simon-Pierre Boucher
contact: contact@spboucher.ai
data_source: hfmarketdata.io
created: 2026-08-12
status: reviewed
---

Level: 2

# Confidence — F002 (artifact demonstration)

**Level 2 — robust.** This is a finding-type C/D entry (artifact
demonstration / methodological), published as a negative result about a
would-be anomaly.

* **Corrected**: the effect itself survives Hansen SPA — which is the
  demonstration: statistical correction cannot detect mechanism.
* **Artifact mechanism established**: measured in expB (+0.065) and expD
  (+0.132) with print-synchronization applied — the lead persists at
  fresh_fraction 0.996 with artifact-share-from-print-gaps ~0, isolating
  CONTENT staleness (Fisher 1966) as the mechanism; the synthetic gate
  demonstrates the same signature on planted staleness.
* **Out-of-sample**: replicates on the validation split (+0.080) — the
  artifact is structural, unlike every "alpha" in the same pipeline.
* **Robust**: present in two independent windows plus validation, at both
  raw and synchronized treatments.

**Why not Level 3**: holdout untouched (sealed); magnitude varies with
index-constituent liquidity regime, so the number (not the mechanism)
should be re-measured per period.