% Bibliographie consolidée de la thèse — fusion des master.bib des trois chapitres. % Dédupliquée par clé (variante la plus complète conservée). Entrée Roll1984 ajoutée % (la clé citée « Roll1984 » correspond à l'entrée « roll1984 » — BibTeX est % insensible à la casse des clés). 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These data contain 8,921 unique traders. We identify between 94 and 230 traders as overnight informed and 91 as intraday informed with little overlap. Floor brokers/traders are over-represented in the overnight informed group. The intraday informed group is dominated by managed money traders/hedge funds and swap dealers, with commercial hedgers under-represented. We find that characteristics such as experience, position size, trading activity, and type of positions held offer significant predictive power for who is informed. An analysis of daily trader profits confirms that we select highly profitable traders.}, publisher = {North-Holland} } @article{flannery2002macroeconomic, title={Macroeconomic factors do influence aggregate stock returns}, author={Flannery, Mark J and Protopapadakis, Aris A}, journal={Review of Financial Studies}, volume={15}, number={3}, pages={751--782}, year={2002}, publisher={Oxford University Press} } @article{fleming1997moves, title={What moves the bond market?}, author={Fleming, Michael J and Remolona, Eli M}, journal={Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review}, volume={3}, number={4}, year={1997} } @article{fleming1999, title={Price Formation and Liquidity in the US Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information}, author={Fleming, Michael J and Remolona, Eli M}, journal={Journal of Finance}, volume={54}, number={5}, pages={1901--1915}, year={1999}, publisher={Wiley Online Library} } @article{fleming1999price, title={Price formation and liquidity in the US 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author={Glick, Reuven and Leduc, Sylvain}, journal={Journal of International Money and Finance}, volume={31}, number={8}, pages={2078--2101}, year={2012}, publisher={Elsevier} } @article{glosten1993relation, title={On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks}, author={Glosten, Lawrence R and Jagannathan, Ravi and Runkle, David E}, journal={Journal of Finance}, volume={48}, number={5}, pages={1779--1801}, year={1993}, publisher={Wiley Online Library} } @article{glosten2021etf, title={{ETF} activity and informational efficiency of underlying securities}, author={Glosten, Lawrence and Nallareddy, Suresh and Zou, Yuan}, journal={Management Science}, volume={67}, number={1}, pages={22--47}, year={2021}, publisher={INFORMS} } @techreport{goldberg2013time, title = {Time Variation in Asset Price Responses to Macro Announcements}, author = {Goldberg, Linda S. and Grisse, Christian}, institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research}, type = {Working Paper}, series = {Working Paper Series}, number = {19523}, year = {2013}, month = {October}, doi = {10.3386/w19523}, url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w19523} } @article{goldstein2014speculation, title = {Speculation and Hedging in Segmented Markets}, author = {Goldstein, Itay and Li, Yan and Yang, Liyan}, journal = {Review of Financial Studies}, volume = {27}, number = {3}, pages = {881--922}, year = {2014}, publisher = {Oxford University Press} } @article{goldstein2022commodity, title = {Commodity Financialization and Information Transmission}, author = {Goldstein, Itay and Yang, Liyan}, journal = {The Journal of Finance}, volume = {77}, number = {5}, pages = {2613--2667}, year = {2022}, publisher = {Wiley Online Library} } @article{gorodnichenko2023, title={The Voice of Monetary Policy}, author={Gorodnichenko, Yuriy and Pham, Tho and Talavera, Oleksandr}, journal={American Economic Review}, volume={113}, number={2}, pages={548--584}, year={2023}, publisher={American 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Evidence from Natural Gas Inventory Announcements}, author = {Gu, Chen and Kurov, Alexander}, journal = {Journal of Futures Markets}, volume = {38}, number = {9}, pages = {1079--1096}, year = {2018}, publisher = {Wiley Online Library} } @article{guo2015leveraged, title={Leveraged {ETF} performance during periods of market turmoil}, author={Guo, Hui and Leung, Tim}, journal={The Journal of Derivatives}, volume={22}, number={3}, pages={61--74}, year={2015}, publisher={Institutional Investor Journals} } @article{gurkaynak2005, title={Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements}, author={G{\"u}rkaynak, Refet S and Sack, Brian P and Swanson, Eric T}, journal={International Journal of Central Banking}, volume={1}, number={1}, pages={55--93}, year={2005} } @article{gurkaynak2005sensitivity, title={The sensitivity of long-term interest rates to economic news: Evidence and implications for macroeconomic models}, author={G{\"u}rkaynak, Refet S and Sack, Brian and Swanson, Eric}, journal={American Economic Review}, volume={95}, number={1}, pages={425--436}, year={2005} } @article{gurtler2010, title={The Effect of FOMC Statement Language on Financial Markets}, author={Gürtler, Marc and Gürtler, Oliver}, journal={Journal of Financial Research}, volume={33}, number={4}, pages={369--391}, year={2010}, publisher={Wiley Online Library} } @article{haigh2007hedge, title={Hedge funds, volatility, and liquidity provision in energy futures markets}, author={Haigh, Michael S and Hranaiova, Jana and Overdahl, James A}, journal={Journal of Alternative Investments}, volume={9}, number={4}, pages={10--38}, year={2007}, publisher={Institutional Investor Journals Umbrella} } @article{hakkio1985reaction, title={The reaction of exchange rates to economic news}, author={Hakkio, Craig S and Pearce, Douglas K}, journal={Economic Inquiry}, volume={23}, number={4}, pages={621--636}, year={1985}, publisher={Wiley Online Library} } @article{hamilton2014risk, title = {Risk Premia in Crude Oil Futures Prices}, author = {Hamilton, James D. and Wu, Jing Cynthia}, journal = {Journal of International Money and Finance}, volume = {42}, pages = {9--37}, year = {2014}, publisher = {Elsevier} } @article{hamm2011liquidity, title={Liquidity and firm value: Evidence from {ETF} holdings}, author={Hamm, Sophia JW}, journal={Journal of Corporate Finance}, volume={20}, pages={1--15}, year={2014}, publisher={Elsevier} } @article{hamm2014liquidity, title={Liquidity and firm value: Evidence from {ETF} holdings}, author={Hamm, Sophia JW}, journal={Journal of Corporate Finance}, volume={29}, pages={1--15}, year={2014}, publisher={Elsevier} } @article{hammoudeh2008metal, title={Metal volatility in presence of oil and interest rate shocks}, author={Hammoudeh, Shawkat and Yuan, Yuan}, journal={Energy Economics}, volume={30}, number={2}, pages={606--620}, year={2008}, publisher={Elsevier} } @article{hansen2005realized, title={A realized variance for the whole day based on intermittent high-frequency data}, author={Hansen, Peter Reinhard and Lunde, Asger}, journal={Journal of Financial Econometrics}, volume={3}, number={4}, pages={525--554}, year={2005}, publisher={Oxford University Press} } @article{hansen2017, title={Transparency and Deliberation within the FOMC: A Computational Linguistics Approach}, author={Hansen, Stephen and McMahon, Michael and Prat, Andrea}, journal={Quarterly Journal of Economics}, volume={133}, number={2}, pages={801--870}, year={2018}, publisher={Oxford University Press} } @article{harris2009role, title={The role of speculators in the crude oil futures market}, author={Harris, Jeffrey H and Buyuksahin, Bahattin}, journal={Available at SSRN 1435042}, year={2009} } @article{hasbrouck2003intraday, title={Intraday price formation in {US} equity index markets}, author={Hasbrouck, Joel}, journal={The Journal of Finance}, volume={58}, number={6}, pages={2375--2400}, year={2003}, publisher={Wiley} } @article{hautsch2011impact, title = {The Impact of Macroeconomic News on Quote Adjustments, Noise, and Informational Volatility}, author = {Hautsch, Nikolaus and Hess, Dieter and Veredas, David}, journal = {Journal of Banking \& Finance}, volume = {35}, number = {10}, pages = {2733--2746}, year = {2011}, publisher = {Elsevier} } @article{hayo2010, title={Do Federal Reserve Communications Help Predict Federal Funds Target Rate Decisions?}, author={Hayo, Bernd and Neuenkirch, Matthias}, journal={Journal of Macroeconomics}, volume={32}, number={4}, pages={1014--1024}, year={2010}, publisher={Elsevier} } @article{hedegaard2011margins, title = {How Margins Are Set and Affect Asset Prices}, author = {Hedegaard, Esben}, journal = {Job Market Paper}, year = {2011} } @article{hedge2007funds, title = {Hedge Funds, Volatility, and Liquidity Provision in Energy Futures Markets}, author = {Haigh, Michael S. and Hranaiova, Jana and Overdahl, James A.}, journal = {Journal of Alternative Investments}, volume = {9}, number = {4}, pages = {10--38}, year = {2007}, publisher = {Institutional Investor Journals Umbrella} } @article{hendershott2013relationship, title={Algorithmic trading and the market for liquidity}, author={Hendershott, Terrence and Riordan, Ryan}, journal={Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis}, volume={48}, number={4}, pages={1001--1024}, year={2013}, publisher={Cambridge University Press} } @article{henderson2015new, title={New evidence on the financialization of commodity markets}, author={Henderson, Brian J and Pearson, Neil D and Wang, Li}, journal={Review of Financial Studies}, volume={28}, number={5}, pages={1285--1311}, year={2015}, publisher={Oxford University Press} } @article{hess2008commodity, title = {How Do Commodity Futures Respond to Macroeconomic News?}, author = {Hess, Dieter and Huang, He and Niessen, Alexandra}, journal = {Financial Markets and Portfolio Management}, volume = {22}, number = {2}, pages = {127--146}, year = {2008}, publisher = {Springer} } @article{hicks1975value, title = {Value and Capital: An Inquiry into Some Fundamental Principles of Economic Theory}, author = {Hicks, John Richard and others}, journal = {OUP Catalogue}, year = {1975}, publisher = {Oxford University Press} } @article{hirshleifer1990hedging, title = {Hedging Pressure and Futures Price Movements in a General Equilibrium Model}, author = {Hirshleifer, David}, journal = {Econometrica}, pages = {411--428}, year = {1990}, publisher = {JSTOR} } @article{hirshleifer1991seasonal, title = {Seasonal Patterns of Futures Hedging 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Announcements}, author = {H{\"o}rdahl, Peter and Remolona, Eli M. and Valente, Giorgio}, journal = {Journal of Business \& Economic Statistics}, volume = {38}, number = {1}, pages = {27--42}, year = {2020}, publisher = {Taylor \& Francis} } @article{hu2013noise, title = {Noise as Information for Illiquidity}, author = {Hu, Grace Xing and Pan, Jun and Wang, Jiang}, journal = {Journal of Finance}, volume = {68}, number = {6}, pages = {2341--2382}, year = {2013}, publisher = {Wiley Online Library} } @article{hu2017early, title={Early peek advantage? Efficient price discovery with tiered information disclosure}, author={Hu, Grace Xing and Pan, Jun and Wang, Jiang}, journal={Journal of Financial Economics}, volume={126}, number={2}, pages={399--421}, year={2017}, publisher={Elsevier} } @article{hu2019, title={Noise as Information for Illiquidity}, author={Hu, Grace Xing and Pan, Jun and Wang, Jiang}, journal={Journal of Finance}, volume={68}, number={6}, pages={2341--2382}, year={2013}, publisher={Wiley Online Library} } @article{huang2005using, title={The relative contribution of jumps to total price variance}, author={Huang, Xin and Tauchen, George}, journal={Journal of Financial Econometrics}, volume={3}, number={4}, pages={456--499}, year={2005}, publisher={Oxford University Press} } @article{humphreys2010great, title = {The Great Metals Boom: A Retrospective}, author = {Humphreys, David}, journal = {Resources Policy}, volume = {35}, number = {1}, pages = {1--13}, year = {2010}, publisher = {Elsevier} } @article{irwin1987note, title = {A Note on the Factors Affecting Technical Trading System Returns}, author = {Irwin, Scott H. and Brorsen, B. Wade}, journal = {Journal of Futures Markets}, volume = {7}, number = {5}, pages = {591--595}, year = {1987}, publisher = {Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company New York} } @article{irwin1999managed, title = {Managed Futures, Positive Feedback Trading, and Futures Price Volatility}, author = {Irwin, Scott H. and Yoshimaru, Satoko}, journal = {Journal of Futures Markets}, volume = {19}, number = {7}, pages = {759--776}, year = {1999}, publisher = {Wiley Online Library} } @incollection{irwin2004effect, author = {Irwin, Scott H. and Holt, Bryce}, title = {The Effect of Large Hedge Fund and {CTA} Trading on Futures Market Volatility}, booktitle = {Commodity Trading Advisors: Risk, Performance Analysis and Selection}, publisher = {John Wiley and Sons, Inc}, address = {New York, NY}, year = {2004} } @article{irwin2009devil, title = {Devil or Angel? The Role of Speculation in the Recent Commodity Price Boom (and Bust)}, author = {Irwin, Scott H. and Sanders, Dwight R. and Merrin, Robert P.}, journal = {Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics}, volume = {41}, number = {2}, pages = {377--391}, year = {2009}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press} } @article{irwin2011index, title = {Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets}, author = {Irwin, Scott H. and Sanders, Dwight R.}, journal = {Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy}, volume = {33}, number = {1}, pages = {1--31}, year = {2011}, publisher = {Oxford University Press} } @article{irwin2012financialization, title = {Financialization and Structural Change in Commodity Futures Markets}, author = {Irwin, Scott H. and Sanders, Dwight R.}, journal = {Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics}, volume = {44}, number = {3}, pages = {371--396}, year = {2012}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press} } @article{irwin2012testing, title = {Testing the Masters Hypothesis in Commodity Futures Markets}, author = {Irwin, Scott H. and Sanders, Dwight R.}, journal = {Energy Economics}, volume = {34}, number = {1}, pages = {256--269}, year = {2012}, publisher = {Elsevier} } @article{israeli2017etf, title={Is there a dark side to exchange traded funds? {An} information perspective}, author={Israeli, Doron and Lee, Charles MC and Sridharan, Suhas A}, journal={Review of Accounting Studies}, volume={22}, number={3}, pages={1048--1083}, year={2017}, publisher={Springer} } @article{jarocinski2020, title={Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks}, author={Jaro{\'c}inski, Marek and Kar{\'a}di, Peter}, journal={American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics}, volume={12}, number={2}, pages={1--43}, year={2020}, publisher={American Economic Association} } @article{joets2017does, title={Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?}, author={Jo{\"e}ts, Marc and Mignon, Val{\'e}rie and Razafindrabe, Tovonony}, journal={Energy Economics}, volume={68}, pages={313--326}, year={2017}, publisher={Elsevier} } @article{jorda2005, title={Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections}, author={Jord{\`a}, {\`O}scar}, journal={American Economic Review}, volume={95}, number={1}, pages={161--182}, year={2005} } @article{kaldor1976speculation, title = {Speculation and Economic Stability}, author = {Kaldor, Nicholas}, booktitle = {The Economics of Futures Trading}, pages = {111--123}, year = {1976}, publisher = {Springer} } @article{kang2020economic, title={Economic determinants of oil futures volatility: A term structure perspective}, author={Kang, Boda and Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios and Prokopczuk, Marcel}, journal={Energy Economics}, volume={88}, pages={104743}, year={2020}, publisher={Elsevier}, doi={10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104743} } @article{kang2020tale, title = {A Tale of Two Premiums: The Role of Hedgers and Speculators in Commodity Futures Markets}, author = {Kang, Wenjin and Rouwenhorst, K. 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Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10-Ks}, author={Loughran, Tim and McDonald, Bill}, journal={Journal of Finance}, volume={66}, number={1}, pages={35--65}, year={2011}, publisher={Wiley Online Library} } @article{lucca2012, title={The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift}, author={Lucca, David O and Moench, Emanuel}, journal={Journal of Finance}, volume={70}, number={1}, pages={329--371}, year={2015}, publisher={Wiley Online Library} } @article{lucey2015precious, title = {What Precious Metals Act as Safe Havens, and When? 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This paper documents the time variation in the responses of yield curves and exchange rates using high frequency data from January 2000 through August 2011. Significant time variation in news effects is present for those announcements that have the largest effects on asset prices. The time variation in effects is explained by economic conditions, including the level of policy rates at the time of the release, and risk conditions: government bond yields increase in response to "good news", but less so when risk is elevated. Risk conditions matter since they can capture the effects of uncertainty on the information content of news announcements, the interaction of monetary policy and financial stability objectives of central banks, and the effect of news announcements on the risk premium.}, } @article{nelson1991conditional, title={Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach}, author={Nelson, Daniel B}, journal={Econometrica}, pages={347--370}, year={1991}, publisher={JSTOR} } @misc{newey1986simple, title = {A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix}, author = {Newey, Whitney K. and West, Kenneth D.}, year = {1986}, publisher = {National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, USA} } @article{newey1994automatic, title={Automatic lag selection in covariance matrix estimation}, author={Newey, Whitney K and West, Kenneth D}, journal={Review of Economic Studies}, volume={61}, number={4}, pages={631--653}, year={1994}, publisher={Wiley-Blackwell} } @article{ohara2021etf, title={Anatomy of a liquidity crisis: Corporate bonds in the {COVID}-19 crisis}, author={O'Hara, Maureen and Zhou, Xing Alex}, journal={Journal of Financial Economics}, volume={142}, number={1}, pages={46--68}, year={2021}, publisher={Elsevier} } @article{ozdurak2020price, title={Price discovery in crude oil markets: Intraday volatility interactions between crude oil futures and energy exchange traded funds}, author={Ozdurak, Caner and Ulusoy, Veysel}, journal={International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy}, volume={10}, number={3}, pages={402--413}, year={2020} } @article{pal2023agricultural, author = {Pal, Dipanwita}, title = {Do Agricultural Prices Respond to Interest on Reserves?}, journal = {The Economics and Finance Letters}, volume = {10}, number = {1}, pages = {94--101}, year = {2023}, doi = {10.18488/29.v10i1.3311} } @article{pan2016etf, title={{ETF} arbitrage under liquidity mismatch}, author={Pan, Kevin and Zeng, Yao}, journal={Journal of Financial Economics}, volume={120}, number={3}, pages={617--635}, year={2016}, publisher={Elsevier} } @article{pan2017market, title={Market disruptions and destabilizing speculation}, author={Pan, Kevin and Zeng, Yao}, journal={Journal of Financial Economics}, volume={126}, number={1}, pages={450--471}, year={2017}, publisher={Elsevier} } @article{park2019speculators, author = {Park, Jinwook}, title = {Effect of Speculators’ Position Changes on the LME Futures Market}, journal = {International Journal of Financial Studies}, volume = {7}, number = {2}, pages = {32}, year = {2019}, doi = {10.3390/ijfs7020032} } @article{patton2013, title={Why Do Markets Disagree? Evidence from Variation in Opinion}, author={Patton, Andrew J and Verardo, Michela}, journal={Review of Financial Studies}, volume={25}, number={12}, pages={3734--3773}, year={2012}, publisher={Oxford University Press} } @techreport{pearce1984stock, title={Stock prices and economic news}, author={Pearce, Douglas K and Roley, V Vance}, year={1984}, institution={National Bureau of Economic Research} } @article{pescatori2022opec, author = {Pescatori, Andrea and Nazer, Yousef}, doi = {10.5089/9798400219788.001}, title = {OPEC and the Oil Market}, journal = {IMF Working Paper}, year = {2022} } @article{petajisto2017inefficiencies, title={Inefficiencies in the pricing of exchange-traded funds}, author={Petäjistö, Antti}, journal={Financial Analysts Journal}, volume={73}, number={1}, pages={24--54}, year={2017}, publisher={CFA Institute} } @book{pirrong2011commodity, title = {Commodity Price Dynamics: A Structural Approach}, author = {Pirrong, Craig}, year = {2011}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press} } @article{pontiff1996costly, title={Costly arbitrage: Evidence from closed-end funds}, author={Pontiff, Jeffrey}, journal={The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, volume={111}, number={4}, pages={1135--1151}, year={1996}, publisher={Oxford University Press} } @article{primiceri2005time, title={Time varying structural vector autoregressions and monetary policy}, author={Primiceri, Giorgio E}, journal={The Review of Economic Studies}, volume={72}, number={3}, pages={821--852}, year={2005}, publisher={Oxford University Press} } @article{rakowski2021twitter, title = {Twitter Activity, Investor Attention, and the Diffusion of Information}, author = {Rakowski, David and Shirley, Sara E and Stark, Jeffrey R}, journal = {Financial Management}, volume = {50}, number = {1}, pages = {3--46}, year = {2021}, publisher = {Wiley Online Library} } @article{ready2022order, title={Order flows and financial investor impacts in commodity futures markets}, author={Ready, Mark J and Ready, Robert C}, journal={The Review of Financial Studies}, volume={35}, number={10}, pages={4712--4755}, year={2022}, publisher={Oxford University Press} } @article{richie2008examination, title={The limits to stock index arbitrage: Examining {S\&P} 500 futures and {SPDRs}}, author={Richie, Nivine and Daigler, Robert T and Gleason, Kimberly C}, journal={Journal of Futures Markets}, volume={28}, number={12}, pages={1182--1205}, year={2008}, publisher={Wiley} } @article{rlmishra2021financialization, author = {Mishra, Ramesh and Mishra, Alok}, title = {Financialization of Indian Agricultural Commodities: The Case of Index Investments}, journal = {International Journal of Social Economics}, volume = {49}, number = {1}, pages = {73--96}, year = {2021}, doi = {10.1108/ijse-05-2021-0254} } @article{roll1984, author = {Roll, R.}, title = {A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread}, journal = {The Journal of Finance}, volume = {39}, number = {4}, pages = {1127--1139}, year = {1984}, } @article{rosa2013, title={The High-Frequency Response of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements}, author={Rosa, Carlo}, journal={Journal of Banking \& Finance}, volume={37}, number={6}, pages={2162--2174}, year={2013}, publisher={Elsevier} } @article{sanders2010speculative, title={A speculative bubble in commodity futures prices? Cross-sectional evidence}, author={Sanders, Dwight R and Irwin, Scott H}, journal={Agricultural Economics}, volume={41}, number={1}, pages={25--32}, year={2010}, publisher={Wiley Online Library} } @article{sanders2016bubbles, title = {Bubbles, Froth and Facts: Another Look at the Masters Hypothesis in Commodity Futures Markets}, author = {Sanders, Dwight and Irwin, Scott}, journal = {Journal of Agricultural Economics}, volume = {68}, number = {2}, pages = {345--365}, year = {2016}, doi = {10.1111/1477-9552.12191} } @article{savor2013much, title={How much do investors care about macroeconomic risk? Evidence from scheduled economic announcements}, author={Savor, Pavel and Wilson, Mungo}, journal={Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis}, pages={343--375}, year={2013}, publisher={JSTOR} } @article{savor2014, title={Asset Pricing: A Tale of Two Days}, author={Savor, Pavel and Wilson, Mungo}, journal={Journal of Financial Economics}, volume={113}, number={2}, pages={171--201}, year={2014}, publisher={Elsevier} } @article{schmeling2019, title={Does Central Bank Tone Move Asset Prices?}, author={Schmeling, Maik and Wagner, Christian}, journal={Review of Finance}, volume={23}, number={5}, pages={933--972}, year={2019}, publisher={Oxford University Press} } @article{scholtus2014speed, title={Speed, algorithmic trading, and market quality around macroeconomic news announcements}, author={Scholtus, Martin and Van Dijk, Dick and Frijns, Bart}, journal={Journal of Banking \& Finance}, volume={38}, pages={89--105}, year={2014}, publisher={Elsevier} } @article{SCOTTI20161, title = {Surprise and uncertainty indexes: Real-time aggregation of real-activity macro-surprises}, journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics}, volume = {82}, pages = {1-19}, year = {2016}, issn = {0304-3932}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.06.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393216300320}, author = {Chiara Scotti}, keywords = {Business cycle, Dynamic factor model, State space model, Forecasting weights}, abstract = {Two daily, real-time, real-activity indexes are constructed for the United States, euro area, United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan: (i) a surprise index summarizing recent economic data surprises and measuring optimism/pessimism about the state of the economy, and (ii) an uncertainty index measuring uncertainty related to the state of the economy. The surprise index parsimoniously preserves the properties of the underlying series when affecting asset prices. For the United States, the real-activity uncertainty index is compared to other uncertainty proxies to show that, when uncertainty is strictly related to real activity only, it has a potentially milder effect on economic activity.} } @article{scotti2016surprise, title = {Surprise and Uncertainty Indexes: Real-Time Aggregation of Real-Activity Macro-Surprises}, journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics}, volume = {82}, pages = {1--19}, year = {2016}, issn = {0304-3932}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.06.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393216300320}, author = {Scotti, Chiara}, keywords = {Business cycle, Dynamic factor model, State space model, Forecasting weights}, abstract = {Two daily, real-time, real-activity indexes are constructed for the United States, euro area, United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan: (i) a surprise index summarizing recent economic data surprises and measuring optimism/pessimism about the state of the economy, and (ii) an uncertainty index measuring uncertainty related to the state of the economy. The surprise index parsimoniously preserves the properties of the underlying series when affecting asset prices. For the United States, the real-activity uncertainty index is compared to other uncertainty proxies to show that, when uncertainty is strictly related to real activity only, it has a potentially milder effect on economic activity.} } @article{shanker2017new, title = {New Indices of Adequate and Excess Speculation and Their Relationship with Volatility in the Crude Oil Futures Market}, author = {Shanker, Latha}, journal = {Journal of Commodity Markets}, volume = {5}, pages = {18--35}, year = {2017}, publisher = {Elsevier} } @article{shapiro2019, title={Taking the Fed at its Word: A New Approach to Estimating Central Bank Objectives using Text Analysis}, author={Shapiro, Adam Hale and Sudhof, Moritz and Wilson, Daniel J}, journal={Review of Economics and Statistics}, volume={104}, number={4}, pages={768--784}, year={2022}, publisher={MIT Press} } @article{shin2013basis, title={Basis and trading volume in international {ETF} markets}, author={Shin, Sujeong and Soydemir, Gokce}, 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