{ "election": "Québec 2022", "generated": "2026-08-27", "note": "Aucune correction maison appliquée en backtest (pas de données antérieures à 2018) — le backtest mesure le modèle de tendance + simulation seul.", "horizons": [ { "horizon": 120, "as_of": "2022-06-05", "n_polls": 52, "national": { "mae_pp": 2.65, "rmse_pp": 3.21, "coverage_95": 1.0, "forecast": { "CAQ": 40.37, "PCQ": 14.6, "PLQ": 18.19, "PQ": 9.01, "QS": 13.92 }, "actual": { "CAQ": 40.98, "PCQ": 12.91, "PLQ": 14.37, "PQ": 14.61, "QS": 15.43 } }, "seats": { "mae": 3.1, "coverage_90": 1.0, "expected": { "CAQ": 83.1, "PCQ": 7.0, "PLQ": 21.2, "PQ": 3.6, "QS": 10.0 }, "actual": { "CAQ": 90, "PLQ": 21, "QS": 11, "PQ": 3, "PCQ": 0, "AUT": 0 }, "prob_majority_caq": 0.9376 }, "districts": { "brier": 0.1473, "log_loss": 0.2867, "winner_accuracy": 0.92 } }, { "horizon": 90, "as_of": "2022-07-05", "n_polls": 56, "national": { "mae_pp": 2.89, "rmse_pp": 3.23, "coverage_95": 1.0, "forecast": { "CAQ": 39.52, "PCQ": 15.86, "PLQ": 17.65, "PQ": 9.25, "QS": 14.02 }, "actual": { "CAQ": 40.98, "PCQ": 12.91, "PLQ": 14.37, "PQ": 14.61, "QS": 15.43 } }, "seats": { "mae": 3.6, "coverage_90": 1.0, "expected": { "CAQ": 82.7, "PCQ": 8.3, "PLQ": 20.2, "PQ": 3.6, "QS": 10.1 }, "actual": { "CAQ": 90, "PLQ": 21, "QS": 11, "PQ": 3, "PCQ": 0, "AUT": 0 }, "prob_majority_caq": 0.951 }, "districts": { "brier": 0.1547, "log_loss": 0.2924, "winner_accuracy": 0.912 } }, { "horizon": 60, "as_of": "2022-08-04", "n_polls": 57, "national": { "mae_pp": 2.23, "rmse_pp": 2.83, "coverage_95": 1.0, "forecast": { "CAQ": 40.71, "PCQ": 14.29, "PLQ": 17.58, "PQ": 9.47, "QS": 14.3 }, "actual": { "CAQ": 40.98, "PCQ": 12.91, "PLQ": 14.37, "PQ": 14.61, "QS": 15.43 } }, "seats": { "mae": 2.2, "coverage_90": 1.0, "expected": { "CAQ": 86.4, "PCQ": 5.1, "PLQ": 20.3, "PQ": 3.3, "QS": 9.9 }, "actual": { "CAQ": 90, "PLQ": 21, "QS": 11, "PQ": 3, "PCQ": 0, "AUT": 0 }, "prob_majority_caq": 0.9968 }, "districts": { "brier": 0.1331, "log_loss": 0.2458, "winner_accuracy": 0.912 } }, { "horizon": 30, "as_of": "2022-09-03", "n_polls": 65, "national": { "mae_pp": 4.15, "rmse_pp": 4.46, "coverage_95": 0.8, "forecast": { "CAQ": 38.56, "PCQ": 18.48, "PLQ": 18.1, "PQ": 8.1, "QS": 12.92 }, "actual": { "CAQ": 40.98, "PCQ": 12.91, "PLQ": 14.37, "PQ": 14.61, "QS": 15.43 } }, "seats": { "mae": 4.0, "coverage_90": 0.8, "expected": { "CAQ": 82.6, "PCQ": 10.1, "PLQ": 21.0, "PQ": 2.2, "QS": 9.1 }, "actual": { "CAQ": 90, "PLQ": 21, "QS": 11, "PQ": 3, "PCQ": 0, "AUT": 0 }, "prob_majority_caq": 0.9961 }, "districts": { "brier": 0.1794, "log_loss": 0.3284, "winner_accuracy": 0.888 } }, { "horizon": 14, "as_of": "2022-09-19", "n_polls": 83, "national": { "mae_pp": 3.61, "rmse_pp": 3.9, "coverage_95": 0.6, "forecast": { "CAQ": 39.24, "PCQ": 18.31, "PLQ": 16.95, "PQ": 9.36, "QS": 12.34 }, "actual": { "CAQ": 40.98, "PCQ": 12.91, "PLQ": 14.37, "PQ": 14.61, "QS": 15.43 } }, "seats": { "mae": 3.9, "coverage_90": 0.8, "expected": { "CAQ": 84.8, "PCQ": 9.7, "PLQ": 18.7, "PQ": 3.1, "QS": 8.6 }, "actual": { "CAQ": 90, "PLQ": 21, "QS": 11, "PQ": 3, "PCQ": 0, "AUT": 0 }, "prob_majority_caq": 1.0 }, "districts": { "brier": 0.1805, "log_loss": 0.3256, "winner_accuracy": 0.88 } }, { "horizon": 7, "as_of": "2022-09-26", "n_polls": 95, "national": { "mae_pp": 2.76, "rmse_pp": 3.03, "coverage_95": 0.6, "forecast": { "CAQ": 38.8, "PCQ": 17.52, "PLQ": 15.78, "PQ": 10.75, "QS": 13.67 }, "actual": { "CAQ": 40.98, "PCQ": 12.91, "PLQ": 14.37, "PQ": 14.61, "QS": 15.43 } }, "seats": { "mae": 4.2, "coverage_90": 0.8, "expected": { "CAQ": 85.0, "PCQ": 9.2, "PLQ": 16.7, "PQ": 4.4, "QS": 9.8 }, "actual": { "CAQ": 90, "PLQ": 21, "QS": 11, "PQ": 3, "PCQ": 0, "AUT": 0 }, "prob_majority_caq": 1.0 }, "districts": { "brier": 0.1768, "log_loss": 0.3194, "winner_accuracy": 0.864 } }, { "horizon": 1, "as_of": "2022-10-02", "n_polls": 104, "national": { "mae_pp": 2.19, "rmse_pp": 2.31, "coverage_95": 1.0, "forecast": { "CAQ": 39.02, "PCQ": 16.37, "PLQ": 15.6, "PQ": 12.63, "QS": 13.12 }, "actual": { "CAQ": 40.98, "PCQ": 12.91, "PLQ": 14.37, "PQ": 14.61, "QS": 15.43 } }, "seats": { "mae": 4.2, "coverage_90": 0.8, "expected": { "CAQ": 85.5, "PCQ": 7.3, "PLQ": 16.7, "PQ": 6.3, "QS": 9.2 }, "actual": { "CAQ": 90, "PLQ": 21, "QS": 11, "PQ": 3, "PCQ": 0, "AUT": 0 }, "prob_majority_caq": 1.0 }, "districts": { "brier": 0.1793, "log_loss": 0.3217, "winner_accuracy": 0.864 } } ], "calibration": [ { "bin": "0–10 %", "predicted": 0.005, "observed": 0.004, "n": 3973 }, { "bin": "10–20 %", "predicted": 0.144, "observed": 0.113, "n": 151 }, { "bin": "20–30 %", "predicted": 0.244, "observed": 0.186, "n": 129 }, { "bin": "30–40 %", "predicted": 0.341, "observed": 0.256, "n": 90 }, { "bin": "40–50 %", "predicted": 0.453, "observed": 0.435, "n": 62 }, { "bin": "50–60 %", "predicted": 0.558, "observed": 0.642, "n": 67 }, { "bin": "60–70 %", "predicted": 0.65, "observed": 0.736, "n": 72 }, { "bin": "70–80 %", "predicted": 0.752, "observed": 0.833, "n": 90 }, { "bin": "80–90 %", "predicted": 0.855, "observed": 0.91, "n": 111 }, { "bin": "90–100 %", "predicted": 0.981, "observed": 0.984, "n": 505 } ] }