\begin{tabular}{lcc c cc}
\toprule
 & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Random holdout} & & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Forward-in-time} \\
\cmidrule{2-3}\cmidrule{5-6}
Model & MdAPE (\%) & $R^2_{\ln}$ & & MdAPE (\%) & $R^2_{\ln}$ \\
\midrule
A5 Semi-log + quadratics & 18.1 & 0.533 & & 20.5 & 0.479 \\
B4 Month FE & 18.3 & 0.529 & & 20.3 & 0.476 \\
C4 Grid-cell FE ($\sim$1.1 km) & 19.4 & 0.481 & & 22.1 & 0.400 \\
D1 OLS (muni + month FE) & 18.3 & 0.529 & & 20.3 & 0.476 \\
D2 Ridge (cross-validated) & 16.7 & 0.577 & & 19.5 & 0.515 \\
D3 Random forest & 14.6 & 0.631 & & 21.3 & 0.519 \\
D4 Gradient boosting & 14.4 & 0.642 & & 21.2 & 0.521 \\
D5 Gradient boosting, no coordinates & 23.2 & 0.426 & & 26.2 & 0.310 \\
D6 Spatial k-NN comparables & 21.2 & 0.434 & & 25.6 & 0.253 \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}