\begin{tabular}{l cc c cc}
\toprule
 & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Random holdout} & & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Forward-in-time} \\
\cmidrule{2-3}\cmidrule{5-6}
Spatial controls & MdAPE (\%) & $R^2_{\ln}$ & & MdAPE (\%) & $R^2_{\ln}$ \\
\midrule
C2 Municipality FE (1,115 cells) & 19.2 & 0.546 & & 23.3 & 0.442 \\
C3 Grid 5.5 km (5,255 cells) & 18.7 & 0.557 & & 24.3 & 0.423 \\
C4 Grid 1.1 km (30,548 cells) & 21.0 & 0.496 & & 25.3 & 0.364 \\
C3$'$ Municipality + grid 5.5 km & 17.7 & 0.582 & & 21.5 & 0.481 \\
C4$'$ Municipality + grid 1.1 km & 17.3 & 0.589 & & 21.6 & 0.486 \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}