# RECORD 008c3229443d60b36b8e1525b5af0589f63eb75d
# TITLE: Real Estate Prices in Beijing, 1644 to 1840
# YEAR: 2012.0  VENUE: nan  DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2012.10.003
# AUTHORS: D. Raff; Susan M. Wachter; Se Yan
# PAGES: 40  CANDIDATE TABLE PAGES (1-based): [35]
# ABSTRACT: This paper provides the first estimates of housing price movements for Beijing in late pre-modern China. We hand-collect from archival sources transaction prices and other house attribute information from the 498 surviving house sale contracts for Beijing during the first two centuries of the Qing Dynasty (1644-1840), a long period without major wars, political turmoil, or significant institutional change in the Chinese capital. We use hedonic methods to construct a real estate price index for Beijing for the period. The regression analysis explains a major proportion of the variance of housing prices. We find that house prices grew steadily for the first half-century of the Qing Dynasty and declined afterwards in both nominal and real terms through the late eighteenth century. Nominal prices grew starting in the late eighteenth century and declined from the early nineteenth century through 1840. But these price changes occurred with contemporaneous price changes in basic measures of the cost of living: there was little change in real terms to the end of our period.


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Real Estate Prices in Beijing, 1644 to 1840* 
 
Daniel Raff 
Wharton School of Management, University of Pennsylvania 
raff@wharton.upenn.edu 
Susan Wachter 
Wharton School of Management, University of Pennsylvania 
wachter@wharton.upenn.edu 
Se Yan 
Guanghua School of Management, Peking University 
seyan@gsm.pku.edu.cn 
 
 
Abstract: 
We hand-collect transaction prices and other house attribute information from the 498 
surviving house sale contracts from Beijing during the Qing Dynasty years of 1644-1840, 
a long period without war, major political turmoil, or significant institutional change in 
the Chinese capital. We use hedonic methods to construct a real estate price index for 
Beijing for the period. Regression explains a quite respectable proportion of the variance.  
We find that house prices grew steadily for the first half-century of the Qing Dynasty and 
declined afterwards in both nominal and real terms.  Nominal prices grew again in the 
late eighteenth century and declined again from the early nineteenth century.  But these 
price changes occurred with contemporaneous price changes in basic measures of the cost 
of living: there was relatively little change in real terms in this second part of the period. 
More speculative comparisons of Qing-era prices with very recent ones suggest that long-
run differences have been more modest than one might have imagined.  
                                                           
* We thank Zhang Xiaolin and Deng Yibin for their generous support in accessing these contracts.  Raff 
and Wachter acknowledge support from the Wharton School Global Initiatives Fund. Yan acknowledges 
support from NSF (SES-0922531) and NSSFC grant (Project No. 09CJL009). 


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Table 7  
Hedonic Regression Results 
 
(1) 
(2) 
(3) 
(4) 
No. of rooms 
0.0499*** 
0.0502*** 
0.0626*** 
0.0682*** 
(0.0029) 
(0.0035) 
(0.0039) 
(0.0052) 
No. of Courtyards 
0.320*** 
0.330*** 
0.269*** 
0.254*** 
(0.0454) 
(0.0471) 
(0.0459) 
(0.0484) 
Red contract 
0.0790  
0.0958  
0.0242  
0.1050  
(0.0948) 
(0.1210) 
(0.0940) 
(0.1170) 
Close to commercial center 
 
-0.261*** 
-0.264*** 
-0.245*** 
-0.216** 
(0.0851) 
(0.0944) 
(0.0842) 
(0.0917) 
Far from commercial center 
 
-0.318** 
-0.853*** 
-0.278** 
-0.817*** 
(0.1270) 
(0.2150) 
(0.1280) 
(0.2160) 
Forbidden city 
 
-0.0142  
 
-0.0428  
 
(0.1560) 
 
(0.1540) 
 
Outer city 
 
-0.302*** 
 
-0.220** 
 
(0.1070) 
 
(0.1080) 
 
Clay material 
-0.675*** 
-0.679*** 
-0.473** 
-0.466* 
(0.2040) 
(0.2570) 
(0.2100) 
(0.2580) 
Commercial estate 
0.235** 
0.1510  
0.276** 
0.2060  
(0.1110) 
(0.1500) 
(0.1100) 
(0.1470) 
Broken 
-0.333** 
-0.2910  
-0.391*** 
-0.325* 
(0.1430) 
(0.1860) 
(0.1400) 
(0.1800) 
Having a well 
0.756*** 
0.640* 
0.507* 
0.3540  
(0.2710) 
(0.3350) 
(0.2690) 
(0.3280) 
Constant 
3.893*** 
3.606*** 
3.817*** 
3.543*** 
(0.2390) 
(0.2240) 
(0.2400) 
(0.2210) 
N 
498  
331  
488  
325  
2
R  
0.5220  
0.5830  
0.5130  
0.5830  
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 
 
 
 
 


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36 
Table 8 House Price Index and Rice Price Index 
Period 
House Price Index 
Period 
Rice Price Index 
1645-1669 
100.00  
1641-50 
100.00  
1670-1694 
201.78  
1651-60 
95.12  
1695-1719 
271.83  
1661-70 
67.80  
1720-1744 
194.84  
1671-80 
51.60  
1745-1769 
163.07  
1681-90 
68.39  
1770-1794 
229.33  
1691-1700 
58.37  
1795-1819 
276.77  
1701-10 
76.44  
1820-1840 
253.20  
1711-20 
73.30  
 
 
1721-30 
69.71  
 
 
1731-40 
79.32  
 
 
1741-50 
90.62  
 
 
1751-60 
129.61  
 
 
1761-70 
136.32  
 
 
1771-80 
120.46  
 
 
1781-90 
127.38  
 
 
1791-1800 
155.55  
 
 
1801-10 
172.21  
 
 
1811-20 
170.22  
 
 
1821-30 
153.77