# RECORD 09caaf09cd085f29d8f22c8f28dd86b492ec121d # TITLE: ESTABLISHING DYNAMIC IMPACT FUNCTION FOR HOUSE PRICING BASED ON SURRENDING MULTI-ATTRIBUTES: EVIDENCE FROM TAIPEI CITY, TAIWAN # YEAR: 2020.0 VENUE: nan DOI: 10.3846/ijspm.2020.11096 # AUTHORS: Jieh-Haur Chen; Li-Ren Yang; V. T. Azzizi; Eric-Liluan Chu; Hsi-Hsien Wei # PAGES: 11 CANDIDATE TABLE PAGES (1-based): [6, 7, 9] # ABSTRACT: The objective of the research is aimed for a solution that is to establish the dynamic impact function of surrounding multi-attribute for house pricing. It is also able to measure the ripple effect and allows the hedonic parameter estimates to vary from point-to-point. A comprehensive literature review is carried out to obtain an adequate theoretical basis for the corresponding hypothesis and concepts. The proposed dynamic impact function for multiattributes is then constructed based on the characteristics of surrounding facilities. Adopting the convenience sampling criteria of 95% confidence level on the data sampling and 10% limit of error in a 5−95% proportion, we collect the empirical data of 39 yearly house sales in the investigated urban areas of Taipei city focusing on housing prices and then utilize them for evaluating and adjusting the function. The actual house price and that of proposed function affected by Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) stations are analysed, resulting in the correlation coefficient at 0.946 (single attribute) and 0.944 (multi-attribute), respectively. The findings support that proposed function can highly represent the house pricing pattern and be an accurate tool for appraisers. ===== PAGE 1 (score 15, numeric-paren 1, table-words 1, var-words 12) ===== Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by VGTU Press This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unre- stricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. ESTABLISHING DYNAMIC IMPACT FUNCTION FOR HOUSE PRICING BASED ON SURRENDING MULTI-ATTRIBUTES: EVIDENCE FROM TAIPEI CITY, TAIWAN Jieh-Haur CHEN1,*, Li-Ren YANG2, Vidya Trisandin AZZIZI1, Eric CHU1, Hsi-Hsien WEI3 1 Department of Civil Engineering, National Central University, Jhongli, Taiwan 2 Department of Business Administration, Tamkang University, Tamsui, Taiwan 3 Department of Building and Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, PR China Received 10 September 2018; accepted 05 August 2019 Abstract. The objective of the research is aimed for a solution that is to establish the dynamic impact function of surround- ing multi-attribute for house pricing. It is also able to measure the ripple effect and allows the hedonic parameter estimates to vary from point-to-point. A comprehensive literature review is carried out to obtain an adequate theoretical basis for the corresponding hypothesis and concepts. The proposed dynamic impact function for multi- attributes is then constructed based on the characteristics of surrounding facilities. Adopting the convenience sampling criteria of 95% confidence level on the data sampling and 10% limit of error in a 5−95% proportion, we collect the empirical data of 39 yearly house sales in the investigated urban areas of Taipei city focusing on housing prices and then utilize them for evaluating and adjusting the function. The actual house price and that of proposed function affected by Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) stations are ana- lysed, resulting in the correlation coefficient at 0.946 (single attribute) and 0.944 (multi-attribute), respectively. The find- ings support that proposed function can highly represent the house pricing pattern and be an accurate tool for appraisers. Keywords: house pricing theory, impact function, multi-attribute, financial engineering, property management. Introduction Over the last few years, the Taiwan government has ap- plied a new policy regarding property tax within the real estate domain which has had a considerable impact on the Taiwan real estate market. The possible turnover index for the period from 2003 to 2005 had dropped from its original peak of 136.77 to 121.38. Furthermore, because of this property tax, some construction companies are re- luctant to build new properties (Bahmani-Oskooee & Wu, 2018). Even the ones that have already started a project may be reluctant to complete it, because after completion, the contractor has to bear a huge tax burden even prior selling it. These circumstances have caused many investors to withdraw from the real estate market. The proportion of customers who buy their own homes or their own real estate has increased. The Ministry of the Interior’s real es- tate platform has identified the following trend: the rate for residential demand for the first half year was 43%. The change of housing demand accounted for 42%, with an increase of 4.7% in the second half of the year. This was the highest within the last five years, previously the rate had never gone above 4% (Bahmani-Oskooee & Wu, 2018). Consumers choosing self-built real estate take into account various factors such as the quality of housing, the surroundings, parking, traffic convenience, and so on. De- spite the fact that accurate appraisals and consideration of impact factors have helped to improve consumer aware- ness of real estate prices, it is still difficult for them to assess the impact of different factors on real estate prices. There has been little on the accurate assessment of the impact of real estate impact factors, therefore consumers do not have any basis of reference to follow. The rational and effective allocation of information as well as resource integration has only been used by real estate producers for determination of prices. Consumers and government departments also need to pursue this goal. Rosen introduced the Hedonic price theory in 1974, which became the main method to solve the pricing prob- lem with a wide range of applications. In addition to its application in real estate analysis, it is also used in agricul- tural land use analysis, agricultural marketing, video game marketing, industrial product marketing, environmental International Journal of Strategic Property Management ISSN: 1648-715X / eISSN: 1648-9179 2020 Volume 24 Issue 2: 119–129 https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2020.11096 *Corresponding author. E-mail: jhchen@ncu.edu.tw ===== PAGE 6 (score 23, numeric-paren 0, table-words 4, var-words 11) ===== 124 J.-H. Chen et al. Establishing dynamic impact function for house pricing based on surrending... The value of α is always positive, because in house price convergence, the value of the house price is always greater than zero. 4. Implementation and discussion The research has provided a solution that is to establish the dynamic impact function of surrounding multi-attribute for house pricing. It is also able to measure the ripple effect and allows the hedonic parameter estimates to vary from point- to-point. Thus, there are two implementations to evaluate the proposed function f(x). The first one is to evaluate the proposed function using a single main facility that affects house prices. The other one is for multi-attributes (main facilities). The following conditions must be met: (1) there must be no other major impact factor affecting housing prices in the MRT area; (2) the main impact on housing prices in the area is proximity to MRT facilities; (3) there are no other MRT stations within a investigated range, so it is clear which MRT station acts as the main facility that af- fects house prices. After determining the area, the real estate locations are chosen using the Ministry of Interior real estate network transaction price inquiry service. The real estate is selected according to the following conditions, being similar in: (1) age; (2) size; (3) quality; and (4) terms of the reputa- tion of the construction company that develops the real es- tate. After the selection of real estate cases around the MRT station, information regarding location of the transaction, real estate area, transaction price, price per unit, room and housekeeping patterns, as well as floor height is obtained using the Ministry of Interior real estate transaction data base. Other real estate related information is obtained using Google earth, such as date, house age, the time it takes for the house to be sold, access to parking, number of floors, and real estate category. Analysis of position, distance from the MRT station, as well as status quo is carried out using GIS and survey data. For the feature price impact function affected by a single and multiple factors (numbers of MRT stations), we conduct 4 case studies: Beitou MRT station (single factor), Jingmei MRT (single factor), Houshanpi- Kunyang MRT (2 factors), Dongmen-Zhongxiao-Xinsheng MRT (3 factors) stations in the investigated area based on convenient sampling. The prices of total 138 housing units sold in 2009 around investigated MRT stations are selected, which satisfies 95% confidence level on the data sampling and 5% limit of error in a 10–90% proportion (Chen & Hsu, 2008; Chen, Yang, Su, & Lin, 2010). The observations cover house sold data in the investigated area in a limited time pe- riod (May, 2009) in 2009. This can minimize the impact by force majeure such domestic macro-economy, global trade volatility, and major disasters. The reason to use past data is due to the data/case sensitivity themselves. It may influence house transactions/price if revealing latest information. For Case Study 1 and 2, they can be inferred as the significant factor because there are no other factors that affect the price of housing in the surrounding area. Beitou MRT station is located in the Taipei north region approximately 6 km away from downtown center and Jingmei MRT station is in the south side of the city, also approximately 6 km away from downtown center. For Case Study 3 and 4, Houshanpi-Ku- nyang MRT stations (2 factors) are approximate 1 km away from the main shopping district of Taipei and Dongmen- Zhongxiao-Xinsheng MRT stations (3 factors) are right at the most prosperous center of the city. The chosen housing units sold from 3 to 7 years old are all located in the investigated regions. None of the chosen apartment buildings had first-floor storefronts, and the se- lected units are located on the 2nd to 10th floors. Each unit is between 30 and 60 pings (100 to 200 meter2) in area. It can be seen that the theoretical house price curve is similar to the actual house price curve, and shows the same trend. The correlation between the two lines is analyzed using the distance between the actual housing unit and the MRT station. The CORREL (array1, array2) function in Micro- soft Excel allows users to calculate correlation coefficient r by inserting the real price data and estimated price by the proposed function. The value of the correlation is between 1 and −1. The closer to 1 the greater the correlation, the higher the degree of similarity between the two curves, im- plying that the proposed function can be applied in prac- tice. By inserting the dynamic impact function (Equation 15), the actual house price and the theoretical house price are analysed using the CORREL function in Microsoft Ex- cel. Tables 1−3 show that all of their correlation coefficients r > 0.9 (0.946, 0.981, and 0.944 respectively). Table 1. The actual distance and case prices affected by a single impact factor (Beitou MRT station, Taipei) Observation Distance (m) Actual house price (million NTD/m2) Predicted house price (million NTD/m2) 1 70 14.92 15.11 2 110 16.12 16.26 3 145 16.64 16.64 4 196 16.61 16.64 5 234 15.97 15.23 6 300 15.40 13.94 7 314 14.24 13.77 8 314 14.15 13.77 9 336 13.65 13.55 10 364 13.50 13.32 11 400 13.18 13.10 12 445 12.61 12.88 13 454 12.49 12.85 14 513 12.32 12.65 15 568 12.62 12.51 16 653 12.57 12.35 17 679 11.77 12.31 18 694 10.85 12.29 Correlation coefficient r = 0.946 ===== PAGE 7 (score 23, numeric-paren 0, table-words 4, var-words 3) ===== International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 2020, 24(2): 119–129 125 Table 2. The actual distance and case prices affected by a single impact factor (Jingmei MRT station, Taipei) Observation Distance from Jingmei MRT station (m) Actual house price (million NTD/m2) Predicted house price (million NTD/m2) 1 191 12.30 12.30 2 203 12.22 12.22 3 247 11.93 11.93 4 270 11.31 9.95 5 272 11.42 11.31 6 274 11.06 11.42 7 301 9.83 8.85 8 307 9.45 9.45 9 311 8.92 8.92 10 316 8.89 8.62 11 327 8.76 8.49 12 346 8.75 8.49 13 351 8.74 8.48 14 355 8.65 8.39 15 358 8.59 8.16 16 375 8.26 7.85 17 398 8.24 7.83 18 403 8.06 7.66 19 425 8.06 7.66 20 511 8.02 7.62 21 528 7.92 7.53 22 550 7.90 7.51 23 554 7.79 7.79 24 557 7.77 7.77 25 558 7.76 7.76 26 559 7.74 7.74 27 561 7.69 7.69 28 570 7.64 7.64 29 588 7.62 7.62 30 593 7.54 7.54 31 604 7.47 7.47 32 633 7.46 7.46 33 723 7.39 7.39 34 745 7.38 7.38 35 813 7.35 7.35 36 830 7.30 7.30 37 834 7.26 7.26 38 840 7.24 7.24 39 847 7.23 7.23 40 849 7.22 7.22 Correlation coefficient r = 0.981 Table 3. Actual distance and case prices affected by multiple impact factors (2 factors) Observation Distance from Houshanpi MRT station (m) Distance from Kunyang MRT station (m) Actual house price ($million NTD/m2) Predicted house price ($million NTD/m2) 1 1 1399 12.21 12.25 2 28 1373 12.73 12.72 3 66 1334 13.08 13.52 4 79 1321 13.79 13.79 5 248 1153 14.50 14.49 6 255 1145 14.46 14.49 7 263 1137 13.90 14.30 8 325 1075 13.23 13.27 9 431 969 12.70 12.59 10 431 969 12.64 12.59 11 525 875 11.33 12.31 12 665 735 11.57 11.50 13 831 569 14.44 13.67 14 861 539 14.39 14.05 15 900 500 14.82 14.82 16 965 435 14.67 14.82 17 970 430 13.69 14.82 18 1003 398 14.30 14.82 19 1188 213 14.12 14.54 20 1241 159 14.14 14.37 21 1395 5 13.28 13.75 Correlation coefficient r = 0.944 Figures 2−4 illustrate the fitting between actual and predicting house sold price. For Case study 1, the pres- ence of a park (Chengde Park) increases the quality of life in the surrounding area, making house prices higher than the theoretical curve, as indicated by results obtained after a field visit. It can be seen that the theoretical house price curve is similar to the actual house price curve, and shows the same trend. Accordingly, the findings in- dicate that it is the facility characteristics which affect the level of housing prices. It can be seen that there is a convergence of housing prices in the same area. For 3 or more attributes, assuming that there are N MRT sta- tions affecting the same area, the dynamic function gives ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 2 3 1 2 3 , , , , N N f x f x f x f x f x f x f x f x … … . Thus, N-1 should be summed and deducted from α. The aggregate is as formulated follows: ( ) ( ) 1 N i i f x N  − − α   ∑ . (16) ===== PAGE 8 (score 2, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 1) ===== 126 J.-H. Chen et al. Establishing dynamic impact function for house pricing based on surrending... Actual price Theoretical house price Price/ping Price (in 10.000 NTD) Distance from MRT station 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 0 200 400 600 800 (m) Figure 2. Comparison between theoretical and actual house price curve influenced by single factor (Beitou MRT station, Taipei) Figure 3. Comparison between theoretical and actual house price curve influenced by single factor (Jingmei MRT station, Taipei) 0 500 1000 1500 (m) Price/ping Price (in 10.000 NTD) Distance from MRT station Actual price Theoretical house price 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 Figure 4. Comparison between theoretical and actual house price curve influenced by multiple factors (2 factors) ===== PAGE 9 (score 18, numeric-paren 0, table-words 5, var-words 6) ===== International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 2020, 24(2): 119–129 127 For example, if there are three MRT stations in the investigation area, 3^N types of function combination should be taken into consideration since each MRT sta- tion has a combination of three dynamic functions. As a result, for Case Study 4 with 3 attributes (3 MRT stations), the resulting correlation coefficient is r = 0.912 still highly matching to the real housing price as shown in Table 4 and Figure 5. Figure 5 exhibits several peaks for the house price due to more attributes that can influence house price such as shopping malls, parks, stadiums, and schools. The dy- namic impact function of surrounding multi-attributes for house pricing is then evaluated and ready for both further academic study and practical use. Conclusions This is an academic study focused on the construction of a dynamic impact function of surrounding multi-attributes for house pricing. This paper discusses not only real estate characteristics regarding distance effects but practical ap- plications for improving appraisal accuracy. The analysis from the empirical implementation is carried out in order Table 4. Actual distance and case prices affected by multiple impact factors (3 factors) Observation (59 in total) Shortest distance to the closest MRT (m) Longest distance to the farthest MRT (m) Actual house price ($million NTD/m2) Predicted house price ($million NTD/m2) 1 (Shortest distance) 62 907 14.62 14.62 52 (Longest distance) 751 1073 12.72 11.44 15 (Highest actual price) 211 847 15.76 14.97 20 (Highest predicted price) 321 866 15.75 15.75 57 (Lowest actual price) 368 745 10.40 10.40 6 (Lowest predicted price) 141 901 10.65 10.33 Average 391 818 13.10 12.92 Standard Deviation 202 245 1.31 1.37 Correlation coefficient r = 0.912 to test its impact on real estate pricing, to examine the real estate impact curve interpretation ability, and finally to apply the results to verify accuracy for the function. The implementation using empirical data is one of the contri- butions demonstrating the feasibility of the proposed func- tion. In addition, the function is verified by empirical cases and the results can enhance appraisal accuracy, real estate market development, and strategies in the future. From the findings of correlation coefficient r = 0.944 and 0.946 for a single and multi-attributes, respectively, we can convey that the proposed function is an effective method to express (1) the ripple effects by multi-attributes to the target house price, (2) a dynamic distance pattern to the house price. It, thus, gives appraisers an accurate model for estimating house prices. This study differs from the previous studies in that the relationship between the proximity to the facil- ity and the real estate price is presented in the form of a mathematical function with high accuracy. A thorough un- derstanding of real estate appraisal and related knowledge can help across the field. As a result, the implementation of the proposed model can be used to establish different vari- ables such as distance factors and proximity to “YIMBY” facilities in the field of selected location. Figure 5. Comparison between theoretical and actual house price curve influenced by multiple factors (3 factors) ===== PAGE 10 (score 11, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 8) ===== 128 J.-H. Chen et al. Establishing dynamic impact function for house pricing based on surrending... The findings explain real estate price well in a math- ematical way based on distance; however, the model may be not applicable when other factors are out of current consideration or assumptions such as economic impact, political impact, force majeure, and long-run period. For example, economic status may be changed dramatically in a developing country. Political or unforeseen impact may create temporarily deviation in the investigated region. 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