# RECORD 0ce3fe88a1c7202d8a2a9d78f61d5b7af8475b89 # TITLE: Willingness-to-pay for energy efficient homes: New insights from the 2022 energy crisis in the United Kingdom # YEAR: 2026.0 VENUE: Energy Research & Social Science DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104700 # AUTHORS: Yunbei Ou; Nick Bailey; D. P. McArthur; Qunshan Zhao # PAGES: 13 CANDIDATE TABLE PAGES (1-based): [8, 10, 11] # ABSTRACT: Improving the energy efficiency of the housing stock is essential for decarbonising the housing sector. However, achieving large-scale improvements requires substantial private investment, underscoring the importance of housing market incentives. An extensive literature shows a positive willingness-to-pay (WTP) for housing energy efficiency. However, the methodological issue of omitted variable bias (OVB) has weakened claims of a causal effect. It is also unclear whether any WTP reflects a concern with energy costs or a more symbolic “ green ” consumption. The recent exogenous shock of the 2022 global energy crisis offers a novel opportunity to examine both. If WTP changes significantly after the energy crisis, it effectively removes OVB issues and indicates that WTP for energy efficiency is driven (at least in part) by energy cost savings. Using over 170,000 listings for second-hand house sales in Greater Manchester, UK (2017 – 24), we model WTP for energy efficiency before and after the energy crisis using multilevel hedonic regressions. We find that WTP for more energy efficient homes increased after the energy crisis, largely because the penalty for the most inefficient homes increased. These results confirm the causal interpretation of the relationship between house prices and energy efficiency and indicate that consumers are motivated at least in part by energy cost savings. These findings suggest that policymakers could strengthen the WTP by providing related regulations or incentives, promote housing energy efficiency by focussing on its financial benefits, as well as support financially vulnerable households to ensure an equal transition to sustainable housing. ===== PAGE 1 (score 10, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 10) ===== Original research article Willingness-to-pay for energy efficient homes: New insights from the 2022 energy crisis in the United Kingdom Yunbei Ou a,*, Nick Bailey a, David Philip McArthur a, Qunshan Zhao a a Urban Big Data Centre, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8RZ, UK A R T I C L E I N F O Keywords: Housing energy efficiency Willingness-to-pay Energy crisis Causal interpretation Mechanism/driver Omitted variable bias Energy performance certificates (EPC) A B S T R A C T Improving the energy efficiency of the housing stock is essential for decarbonising the housing sector. However, achieving large-scale improvements requires substantial private investment, underscoring the importance of housing market incentives. An extensive literature shows a positive willingness-to-pay (WTP) for housing energy efficiency. However, the methodological issue of omitted variable bias (OVB) has weakened claims of a causal effect. It is also unclear whether any WTP reflects a concern with energy costs or a more symbolic “green” consumption. The recent exogenous shock of the 2022 global energy crisis offers a novel opportunity to examine both. If WTP changes significantly after the energy crisis, it effectively removes OVB issues and indicates that WTP for energy efficiency is driven (at least in part) by energy cost savings. Using over 170,000 listings for second-hand house sales in Greater Manchester, UK (2017–24), we model WTP for energy efficiency before and after the energy crisis using multilevel hedonic regressions. We find that WTP for more energy efficient homes increased after the energy crisis, largely because the penalty for the most inefficient homes increased. These results confirm the causal interpretation of the relationship between house prices and energy efficiency and indicate that consumers are motivated at least in part by energy cost savings. These findings suggest that poli­ cymakers could strengthen the WTP by providing related regulations or incentives, promote housing energy efficiency by focussing on its financial benefits, as well as support financially vulnerable households to ensure an equal transition to sustainable housing. 1. Introduction The improvement of housing energy efficiency is vital for mitigating global environmental, economic and social challenges. Residential buildings account for around 17% of CO2 emissions globally [1], rep­ resenting a substantial and detrimental driver of the worsening climate crisis. They also account for 21% of global energy demand [1], making housing one of the most energy intensive sectors [2] with significant pressure on energy markets. Also, high energy costs disproportionately burden poorer households in energy inefficient homes, posing socio­ economic challenges of fuel poverty [3]. Moreover, the increasing fre­ quency of unforeseen challenges including extreme climate events and energy price volatility highlights the need for a more resilient housing stock. Despite the importance of housing energy efficiency, investment in improvements fall far short of the requirements of net-zero goals [4]. A substantial share of the housing stock is still highly inefficient, as is the case in the UK [5], making public spending insufficient to renovate all inefficient buildings [6]. Therefore, private investment must grow, with market incentives playing a key role in fostering such investment. If energy efficiency is capitalised into housing prices, homeowners, in­ vestors and other stakeholders would have stronger financial incentives to undertake energy efficiency retrofits. A positive willingness-to-pay (WTP) for more energy-efficient dwellings can therefore help foster private investment, offering a cost-effective pathway to accelerate im­ provements across the housing stock. In Europe, the market incentive mechanism has been strengthened by the introduction of Energy Per­ formance Certificates (EPCs), which are mandated to appear in housing advertisements throughout the EU and the UK as a former EU member state (Directive 2010/31/EU, p.11). EPC ratings provide information on building energy performance and its impact on potential running costs using EPC bands or scores (more details provided in Section 3.2.2). Extensive studies have examined the price premium of housing en­ ergy efficiency as indicated by EPC ratings, generally finding a positive * Corresponding author at: 7 Lilybank Gardens, University of Glasgow, G12 8RZ, Glasgow, UK. E-mail addresses: y.ou.1@research.gla.ac.uk (Y. Ou), Nick.Bailey@glasgow.ac.uk (N. Bailey), David.Mcarthur@glasgow.ac.uk (D.P. McArthur), Qunshan.Zhao@ glasgow.ac.uk (Q. Zhao). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Energy Research & Social Science journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/erss https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2026.104700 Received 17 November 2025; Received in revised form 30 March 2026; Accepted 6 April 2026 Energy Research & Social Science 135 (2026) 104700 Available online 13 April 2026 2214-6296/Crown Copyright © 2026 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ). ===== PAGE 8 (score 41, numeric-paren 0, table-words 4, var-words 20) ===== term. The price premium began to have a clear rising trend after 2022 especially for the “green premium”. In terms of the “brown discount”, the rising trend seems to start a bit earlier from 2019 to 2020. For band F/G, a clear and consistent increase can be found from 2022 onwards where 2022 experienced the largest rise, while there is also a step in­ crease in 2020. These confirm the WTP started to increase extensively from around 2022 i.e., the energy crisis, which continue to rise in the following years. More discussion around the temporal trend is presented in the following section. 5.3. Robustness check In our modelling, we use all Zoopla listings which we can link to an EPC record. In our work to validate the Zoopla data, we used a subset of listings (55.5% of all listings) which we could link to official registered transaction data (LR PPD) to check that the listing price was indeed a strong indicator of the agreed sales price. The unmatched Zoopla listings might indicate unsold properties where the listing price is not a good indicator of market value, but they may also indicate simply a failure in the address-based matching process. To check the robustness of results, the main regression models (Models 1 and 2) are repeated using only listings that can be matched to official transactions. Results show that estimations of WTP for energy efficiency remain consistent with those using all listings in the same period (Table 5). 6. Discussion This study exploits a period with a dramatic increase in domestic energy costs to strengthen the evidence that energy efficiency has a causal impact on house prices. Previous studies relying on cross- sectional designs find a positive association but have the common problem limiting a causal interpretation that this may be (in part or in whole) the result of omitted variables associated with both energy ef­ ficiency and price [8]. Some have examined the impact of short-term and relatively modest variations in energy prices, yielding mixed con­ clusions regarding their role in shaping WTP [11,27,37]. In contrast, the 2022 energy crisis represents a largely exogenous energy price shock of unprecedented scale, providing a unique opportunity to estimate the causal impact of energy efficiency on house prices since it is highly unlikely that the valuation of unobserved confounders would change at the same time. It also sheds some light on the underlying mechanism or driver. Across the whole period, our models confirm the significant positive association between energy efficiency and housing prices which is already well-documented in the wider literature [8]. This implies around a 1% price premium for each band above D, with a slightly larger discount for those below that level, especially those in Bands F/G. Crucially, our results indicate that this WTP increased following the onset of the energy crisis. While the price premium for properties rated Table 2 Descriptive statistics of variables. Variable Value of category Full sample Before energy crisis After energy crisis Mean/% Std Mean/% Std Mean/% Std Dependent variable Listing Price (log) 12.179 0.497 12.075 0.490 12.360 0.453 Property-level variables EPC band A/B 0.58% 0.56% 0.61% C 27.70% 24.14% 33.91% D 54.61% 56.01% 52.18% E 14.68% 16.42% 11.65% F/G 2.42% 2.87% 1.64% EPC score 62.344 9.903 61.559 10.156 63.711 9.291 Tenure Freehold 54.96% 54.10% 56.44% Leasehold 45.04% 45.90% 43.56% Property type House 91.94% 91.74% 92.29% Bungalow 8.06% 8.26% 7.71% Total floor area (log) 4.457 0.278 4.452 0.276 4.465 0.280 Habitable rooms 1–3 9.35% 9.61% 8.89% 4 33.89% 34.51% 32.81% 5 35.35% 34.92% 36.11% 6–7 18.79% 18.42% 19.45% 8–10 2.62% 2.55% 2.74% Built form Detached 16.59% 16.37% 16.96% Semi-detached 40.84% 40.35% 41.70% Terraced 42.57% 43.28% 41.33% Building age Before 1900 8.74% 9.18% 7.97% 1900–1929 22.59% 23.10% 21.70% 1930–1949 21.22% 21.02% 21.57% 1950–1966 15.87% 15.73% 16.11% 1967–1982 14.32% 14.05% 14.77% 1983–2002 12.28% 12.09% 12.60% 2003–2011 4.85% 4.80% 4.93% 2012–2024 0.13% 0.01% 0.34% Modern kitchen True 23.57% 23.74% 23.27% Garage True 33.57% 33.80% 33.18% Basement True 1.20% 1.16% 1.25% Garden True 87.29% 87.05% 87.72% School quality 2.873 0.414 2.874 0.412 2.870 0.417 Listing end time Energy crisis True 36.49% Neighbourhood-level variables Population density (natural log) 3.463 0.831 3.470 0.832 3.451 0.830 Accessibility PC1 −1.273 4.834 −1.233 4.868 −1.343 4.772 Accessibility PC2 −0.009 1.585 0.003 1.593 −0.029 1.572 Income Deprivation 0.146 0.095 0.147 0.096 0.144 0.095 Observations 170,137 108,051 62,086 Y. Ou et al. Energy Research & Social Science 135 (2026) 104700 8 ===== PAGE 9 (score 4, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 4) ===== above Band D remains broadly stable (non-significant increases), the discount applied to less efficient homes increases significantly in the post-crisis period. Using EPC scores rather than bands, we also see a significant increase in the premium for energy efficiency overall. This result is consistent with a recent UK study based on a more limited follow-up period (Jan 2021 to Aug 2022) using transaction price and a different research design [39], also finding modest price increases for high-rated properties alongside substantially larger price discounts for low-rated homes. We find this response emerges gradually rather than immediately, suggesting an adaptive response by market participants with beliefs about future energy prices evolving over time. Over the same period as the energy crisis, house prices will have been impacted by a variety of economic factors, but we do not believe these would have had the same differential impact in relation to energy effi­ ciency. In particular, the dramatic rise in interest rates in late 2022 led to higher mortgage costs, and likely resulted in reduced housing demand and downward pressure on prices overall. However, the rising mortgage rates would be expected to affect all properties similarly. More relevant perhaps was the introduction of a Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards (MEES) for the private rental market, prohibiting landlords from letting properties with EPC bands below E which came into force in April 2020. This policy is likely to have had some impact on energy efficiency price premiums at the bottom end and may help explain the increases in the “brown discount” observed for EPC F/G properties in 2020. However, it is unlikely to account for the much steeper rise in the “brown discount” seen from 2022 onwards. Crucially, our results help to relieve the long-standing concern of omitted variable bias in estimates of the WTP for housing energy effi­ ciency, which has weakened causal claims and limited the credibility of policy prescriptions. By utilising the natural experiment of the energy crisis, we conclude that coefficients on the EPC capture WTP for energy efficiency itself, at least to some extent. This confirmation provides a more credible message to the market that buyers do value more energy- efficient homes. The confirmation of the causal relationship allows more informed decision-making for policy (including government subsidy sizes, energy efficiency standards, green mortgage design, etc), busi­ nesses (in more effective investment decisions), and households (in choosing housing products). Furthermore, this result also indicates that people are at least partly driven to pay for more efficient homes by energy cost savings. Previous research analysing relationship between energy prices and WTP for efficient homes have found little influence of energy prices [27,37], suggesting the price premium does not come from energy cost consid­ erations. This study, on the contrary, finds that energy costs do influence people's WTP for more energy-efficient homes. When energy prices are higher, the returns on investment in energy efficiency rise both through reduced operational costs and through increased house values. Other than expectations of high energy prices, one study found that people are highly uncertain about future trend of gas and electricity prices [63], which could be another reason for customers to choose more energy efficient homes in order to reduce risks. This finding might encourage a greater policy focus on the monetary benefits of energy efficiency measures instead of environmental ones. However, recognising the importance of energy cost savings highlights the inequality between high- and low-income households. While the former can afford energy efficient improvements, the latter cannot and thereby suffer from higher burdens from energy costs. It is therefore important for Governments to support low-income households to minimise the gap. Our finding of about a 1% price premium per band translates into £1900 or £2200 in housing price capitalisation based on the median and mean housing price respectively for listings in this study. The average cost to improve dwellings with EPC band of D to an EPC band of C or above is estimated at £6018 per dwelling [64] albeit with a wide range. For those planning to sell a dwelling in the near future, there still ap­ pears to be little market incentive to make significant energy efficiency improvements. For those planning to remain for some time, however, the increase in capital value does increase the overall returns on such investments. One analysis [65] suggests that the average annual energy Fig. 3. Distribution of key attributes at LSOA11 level. Y. Ou et al. Energy Research & Social Science 135 (2026) 104700 9 ===== PAGE 10 (score 115, numeric-paren 57, table-words 9, var-words 19) ===== cost saving of improving from EPC D to C was around £680 per year at the peak of the energy crisis. The capital value gains from energy Table 3 Main regression results. Value of category Model 1: EPC bands Model 2: EPC score Coef. [95% CIs] Coef. [95% CIs] Intercept 9.923 9.842 Property-level variables EPC band A/B 0.022*** [0.011, 0.033] – – C 0.013*** [0.011, 0.015] – – E −0.015*** [−0.018, −0.013] – – F/G −0.041*** [−0.047, −0.035] – – EPC score – – 0.001*** [0.001,0.001] Tenure Leasehold −0.007*** [−0.009, −0.005] −0.007*** [−0.009, −0.005] Property type Bungalow 0.094*** [0.090, 0.097] 0.094*** [0.090, 0.097] Total floor area (log) 0.496*** [0.491, 0.501] 0.496*** [0.491, 0.501] Habitable rooms 4 0.014*** [0.010, 0.017] 0.013*** [0.010, 0.017] 5 0.054*** [0.051, 0.058] 0.054*** [0.051, 0.058] 6–7 0.126*** [0.121, 0.130] 0.126*** [0.121, 0.130] 8–10 0.196*** [0.189, 0.203] 0.196*** [0.188, 0.203] Built form Detached 0.174*** [0.171, 0.177] 0.174*** [0.171, 0.177] Terraced −0.172*** [−0.175, −0.170] −0.172*** [−0.175, −0.170] Building age Before 1900 0.001 [−0.003, 0.005] 0.002 [−0.002, 0.006] 1900–1929 −0.032*** [−0.035, −0.028] −0.031*** [−0.034, −0.027] 1930–1949 0.014*** [0.011, 0.017] 0.015*** [0.012, 0.018] 1967–1982 0.026*** [0.023, 0.029] 0.025*** [0.022, 0.029] 1983–2002 0.099*** [0.095, 0.103] 0.098*** [0.094, 0.102] 2003–2011 0.132*** [0.127,0.137] 0.128*** [0.123,0.133] 2012–2024 0.139*** [0.115, 0.162] 0.132*** [0.109, 0.156] Property facilities Modern kitchen 0.043*** [0.041, 0.045] 0.043*** [0.041, 0.045] Garage 0.057*** [0.055, 0.060] 0.058*** [0.055, 0.060] Basement 0.051*** [0.043, 0.059] 0.052*** [0.044, 0.060] Garden 0.073*** [0.070, 0.076] 0.073*** [0.070, 0.075] School quality 0.008*** [0.003, 0.012] 0.008*** [0.003, 0.012] Time Yes Yes Neighbourhood-level variables Population density (natural log) −0.006 [−0.023, 0.010] −0.006 [−0.023, 0.010] Accessibility PC1 0.017*** [0.015, 0.019] 0.017*** [0.015, 0.019] Accessibility PC2 −0.004 [−0.011, 0.003] −0.004 [−0.011, 0.003] Income Deprivation −1.589*** [−1.694, −1.484] −1.590*** [−1.694, −1.484] σ2 ϵ 0.031 0.031 σ2 u 0.053 0.053 σ2 f 0.215 0.215 VPC 63.10% 63.10% Pseudo R2 89.60% 89.60% Observations 170,137 170,137 Note: The variance partitioning coefficient (VPC) measures the proportion of total variance in an outcome variable that is attributable to the grouping structure. It is the level 2 random effect variance divided by level 1 and level 2 random effect variance: VPC = σ2 u/ ( σ2 u + σ2 ϵ ) . The Pseudo R2 is calculated based on framework [61]: R2 = σ2 f + σ2 u/ ( σ2 f + σ2 u + σ2 ϵ ) where σ2 f is the variance explained by level 1 and level 2 predictors. *** p < .001. ** p < .01. * p < .05. Table 4 Price premium of energy efficiency with change after energy crisis. Variable Model 3: Interaction with EPC bands Model 4: Interaction with EPC score Coef. [95% CIs] Coef. [95% CIs] Variables of interest EPC A/B 0.020* [0.006, 0.034] After energy crisis * EPC A/B 0.005 [−0.017, 0.028] EPC C 0.012*** [0.009, 0.015] After energy crisis * EPC C 0.001 [−0.003, 0.005] EPC E −0.013*** [−0.016, −0.010] After energy crisis * EPC E −0.008** [−0.013, −0.003] EPC F/G −0.036*** [−0.043, −0.030] After energy crisis * EPC F/G −0.019** [−0.032, −0.006] EPC score 0.0012*** [0.0011, 0.0013] After energy crisis * EPC score 0.0003*** [0.0001, 0.0005] VPC 63.02% 63.02% Pseudo R2 89.60% 89.60% Observations 170,137 170,137 Note: Only variables of interest are presented. *** p < .001. ** p < .01. * p < .05. Y. Ou et al. Energy Research & Social Science 135 (2026) 104700 10 ===== PAGE 11 (score 22, numeric-paren 10, table-words 4, var-words 1) ===== Fig. 4. Price premium for EPC bands before and after the energy crisis. Note: The coefficient estimates of effects in the presence of interactions i.e., “coefficients after energy crisis” is the addition of coefficient estimate of EPC band and that of the corresponding interaction term. The confidence interval of “coefficients after energy crisis” is calculated based on [62]. The p-values indicate the statistical significance of interaction components EPC band*Energy crisis i.e., difference between coefficients before and after the crisis. *** p < .001. ** p < .01. * p < .05. Fig. 5. Estimates of price premium after different years. Note: The coefficient estimates and confidence intervals are calculated using the same approach as specified in the note of Fig. 4. Table 5 Robustness check: main regression on matched and complete listings. Model Variable Matched listings (2017.09–2023.10) All listings (2017.09–2023.10) EPC band A/B 0.018* [0.001, 0.035] 0.019** [0.007,0.031] C 0.012*** [0.009, 0.015] 0.012*** [0.010, 0.014] E −0.014*** [−0.018, −0.011] −0.016*** [−0.018, −0.013] F/G −0.045*** [−0.053, −0.037] −0.040*** [−0.046, −0.035] EPC score Score 0.001*** [0.001, 0.001] 0.001*** [0.001, 0.001] Notes: N = 64,292 for matched listings and N = 149,526 for all listings. Y. Ou et al. Energy Research & Social Science 135 (2026) 104700 11 ===== PAGE 12 (score 7, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 7) ===== efficiency improvement are therefore equivalent to around three years of running cost savings so forms a significant additional incentive. There are some limitations to this study. One key limitation is the focus on the second-hand housing market in one UK metropolitan area, although we have no reason to doubt that results here would apply across the rest of the UK at least. Given the energy crisis is global in scale, generating different impacts across regions [66] and housing markets, future studies could analyse cross-regional or international markets to assess how the energy crisis influences the relationship between energy efficiency and housing prices more widely. Another limitation lies in potential heterogeneity in WTP for housing energy efficiency across different socio-demographic groups, property types, etc. In reality, preferences to invest in energy efficiency improvements may vary significantly [67,68]. Ignoring this heterogeneity may lead to over­ generalised conclusions and limit the applicability of the findings to granular policy or market interventions. Therefore, a priority for future research is to explore and examine the heterogeneous WTP for housing energy efficiency. 7. Conclusions Taking the dramatic price increase from the global energy crisis as an opportunity, this study investigates whether residents' willingness-to- pay for more energy-efficient homes increased following the crisis. The findings show that energy-efficient properties command a positive price premium of above 1% per band, and that this has increased in the post-crisis period. By documenting an increase of WTP after the crisis, we argue that the causal interpretation of the relationship between housing energy efficiency and housing prices is strengthened. Further­ more, the results indicate that energy cost considerations play a sub­ stantive role in this WTP, rather than the effect reflecting only environmental concern or signalling. Overall, this study provides new insights on the price premium associated with energy-efficient homes in the context of the energy crisis, offering a valuable contribution to the existing literature. The findings have important policy and practical implications. First, the strengthened evidence of WTP for more energy-efficient homes could increase investors' willingness to finance retrofit works, enabling more homeowners to upgrade. It should also encourage policy makers to consider introducing minimum energy efficiency standards for the housing sales markets. Second, the identification of the association be­ tween WTP and energy costs suggests that policymakers could place more emphasis on energy bill reduction when promoting energy effi­ ciency measures in policy design. Moreover, it is important for policy­ makers to recognise the disparity of the energy transition process among high- and low-income households, to provide targeted subsidies to ensure more equal outcomes. Finally, the increase in WTP following the recent energy crisis highlights its potential role as a catalyst for behav­ ioural change, offering policymakers an opportunity to leverage this opportunity to reach broader sustainability objectives. CRediT authorship contribution statement Yunbei Ou: Writing – original draft, Visualization, Validation, Software, Methodology, Investigation, Formal analysis, Data curation, Conceptualization. Nick Bailey: Writing – review & editing, Supervi­ sion, Methodology, Funding acquisition, Conceptualization. David Philip McArthur: Writing – review & editing, Supervision, Methodol­ ogy, Funding acquisition, Conceptualization. Qunshan Zhao: Writing – review & editing, Supervision, Methodology, Funding acquisition, Conceptualization. Declaration of Generative AI and AI-assisted technologies in the writing process During the preparation of this work, the authors used ChatGPT-5 in order to improve language and writing. After using this tool/service, the authors reviewed and edited the content as needed and take full re­ sponsibility for the content of the published article. Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. Acknowledgement This work was made possible by the ESRC-funded Advanced Quan­ titative Methods (AQM) Doctoral Studentship [ES/P000681/1] and ESRC’s on-going support for the Urban Big Data Centre [ES/L011921/1 and ES/S007105/1]. Dr Qunshan Zhao has received the support from the Royal Society International Exchange Scheme [IEC\NSFC\223042]. We would like to thank the reviewers and attendees at the Housing Studies Association Conference 2025 for providing useful feedback. Appendix A. Supplementary data Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi. org/10.1016/j.erss.2026.104700. 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