# RECORD 362599527a7d7cc85cb4c07eeb223bebe6481a51
# TITLE: Valuation of Flood Risk in Coastal Housing Markets: Evidence from Tampa Bay
# YEAR: 2026.0  VENUE: UF Journal of Undergraduate Research  DOI: 10.32473/ufjur.28.141749
# AUTHORS: Ava Vellines
# PAGES: 11  CANDIDATE TABLE PAGES (1-based): []
# ABSTRACT: Florida exhibits growing tension between urban population growth and increasing exposure to coastal flooding risk. More than half of the state’s municipalities are threatened by chronic flooding, and in recent years the insurance market has been characterized by rising premiums and insurer withdrawals. Despite these signs, the Tampa Bay region remains one of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the United States. This raises questions about whether housing markets are adequately incorporating flood risk into property values. 
While a flood risk discount on home prices has been observed in other places around the world, previous analysis of Florida finds that the desirability of coastal areas outweighs potential risks in the eyes of home buyers. This study uses a hedonic pricing framework and OLS regression to examine how flood risk is capitalized into housing prices in Tampa Bay using a dataset of home sales in Hillsborough County from 2022 to 2024. It reveals that homes with higher expected annual losses from coastal flooding sell at higher prices. This suggests that the desirability of coastal real estate still outweighs the financial and personal risks associated with flooding for prospective homeowners in Tampa Bay.


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University of Florida | Journal of Undergraduate Research | Volume 28 | 2026 
 
 
Valuation of Flood Risk in Coastal Housing Markets: 
Evidence from Tampa Bay 
 
Ava Vellines 
Department of Economics, University of Florida 
 
Mentor: Dr. Michelle Phillips, Department of Economics 
 
Abstract 
Florida exhibits growing tension between urban population growth and increasing exposure to coastal 
flooding risk. More than half of the state’s municipalities are threatened by chronic flooding, and in recent 
years the insurance market has been characterized by rising premiums and insurer withdrawals. Despite 
these signs, the Tampa Bay region remains one of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the United 
States. This raises questions about whether housing markets are adequately incorporating flood risk into 
property values. While a flood risk discount on home prices has been observed in other places around the 
world, previous analysis of Florida finds that the desirability of coastal areas outweighs potential risks in 
the eyes of home buyers. This study uses a hedonic pricing framework and OLS regression to examine 
how flood risk is capitalized into housing prices in Tampa Bay using a dataset of home sales in 
Hillsborough County from 2022 to 2024. It reveals that homes with higher expected annual losses from 
coastal flooding sell at higher prices. This suggests that the desirability of coastal real estate still 
outweighs the financial and personal risks associated with flooding for prospective homeowners in Tampa 
Bay.  
Keywords: Flood risk, Housing markets, Hedonic pricing, Coastal development, Climate risk 
perception, Tampa Bay 
 
Introduction 
Climate change is increasing coastal flood risk dramatically, especially in Florida. More than 
half of Florida’s municipalities will be affected by sea level rise, and on average 30% of local 
revenues will be exposed to climate-related damages (Shi et al., 2023). Tampa Bay is among the 
top ten cities with the highest exposure of assets to flooding brought on by sea level rise (Fu et 
al., 2016). 
Real estate is at the center of this vulnerability. The real estate sector makes up the largest 
segment of Florida’s GDP and is especially threatened by flooding (IBISWorld, 2025). At the 
household level, flood risk also carries significant costs in the form of disaster recovery and 
insurance.