# RECORD 37e8b014df3e5f26ac93ad70c5f3f3c607c04c26 # TITLE: Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics in Bogotá, Colombia # YEAR: 2025.0 VENUE: Journal of Transport and Land Use DOI: 10.5198/jtlu.2025.2593 # AUTHORS: C. Vergel-Tovar; Juan Sebastián García; J. P. Álvarez; S. Mesa; Ingrid Lorena Molano; Leonardo Cañón-Rubiano; Laura M. Correa-Garzón # PAGES: 51 CANDIDATE TABLE PAGES (1-based): [13, 15, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 27, 29, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38] # ABSTRACT: Studies of the impacts of rail-based mass transit systems on land values and real estate prices are scarce in the Colombian context. Most studies have focused on estimating the impacts of bus rapid transit systems (BRT), mainly in Bogotá. There is an emerging literature on rail-based systems impacts on urban development and land values in Medellín, Colombia, while there is also an emerging interest regarding the effects of the announcements of the two metro projects of Bogotá in the city’s urban spatial structure. This paper develops a quasi-experimental research design looking at the anticipatory effects of the two lines of the Bogota Metro program on real estate market dynamics between 2007 and 2023. We used databases generated by the private sector with new housing developments including housing unit attributes and we estimated spatial variables and urban attributes associated with the location of each real estate development project. Through hedonic price models with control variables that incorporate attributes at different scales, our study estimates the effects of the Bogota Metro Line 1 project (in construction since 2021) on prices per square meter of real estate development projects over time. Results of the analysis suggest that the regulations implemented by the city, establishing an 800-meter impact area along Line 1, have had positive effects on real estate market prices after 2016, while results found no changes on real estate development dynamics in terms of prices per square meter due to the announcements of the planned second line of the metro project. We also included statistical analysis using isochrones based on walking distances to future metro stations. We found that the positive effects are taking place in all isochrones for the first line, while there are differences in the case of the second line of the metro project. Based on these findings, we provide guidelines for future research including public policy recommendations for the local and national government regarding value capture opportunities associated with the announcement of large-scale rail based urban transport projects. ===== PAGE 1 (score 9, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 9) ===== The Journal of Transport and Land Use jtlu.org Vol. 18 No. 1 [2025] pp. 123–173 Copyright 2025 C. Erik Vergel-Tovar, Juan Sebastián García. Juan Pablo Álvarez, Simón Mesa, Ingrid Lorena Molano, Leonardo Canon-Rubiano, & Laura M. Correa-Garzón https://doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.2025.2593 ISSN: 1938-7849 | Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution – Noncommercial License 4.0 The Journal of Transport and Land Use is the official journal of the World Society for Transport and Land Use (WSTLUR) and is published and sponsored by the University of Minnesota Center for Transportation Studies. This paper is also published with additional sponsorship from WSTLUR. Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics in Bogotá, Colombia C. Erik Vergel-Tovar (corresponding author) Universidad de los Andes c.vergel@uniandes.edu.co Juan Sebastián García Universidad de los Andes js.garciad1@uniandes.edu.co Juan Pablo Álvarez Universidad de los Andes jp.alvarezs@uniandes.edu.co Simón Mesa Metro Agency of Bogota simon.mesacosta@gmail.com Ingrid Lorena Molano Metro Agency of Bogota ingrid.molano@metrodebogota.gov.co Leonardo Canon-Rubiano World Bank lcanonrubiano@worldbank.org Laura M. Correa-Garzón World Bank lcorreagarzon@worldbank.org Abstract: Studies of the impacts of rail-based mass transit systems on land values and real estate prices are scarce in the Colombian context. Most studies have focused on estimating the impacts of bus rapid transit systems (BRT), mainly in Bogotá. There is an emerging literature on rail-based systems impacts on urban development and land values in Medellín, Colombia, while there is also an emerging interest regarding the effects of the announcements of the two metro projects of Bogotá in the city’s urban spatial structure. This paper develops a quasi- experimental research design looking at the anticipatory effects of the two lines of the Bogota Metro program on real estate market dynamics between 2007 and 2023. We used databases generated by the private sector with new housing developments including housing unit attributes and we estimated spatial variables and urban attributes associated with the location of each real estate development project. Through hedonic price models with control variables that incorporate attributes at different scales, our study estimates the effects of the Bogota Metro Line 1 project (in construction since 2021) on prices per square meter of real estate development projects over time. Results of the analysis suggest that the regulations implemented by the city, establishing an 800-meter impact area along Line 1, have had positive effects on real estate market prices after 2016, while results found no changes on real estate development dynamics in terms of prices per square meter due to the announcements of the planned second line of the metro project. We also included statistical analysis using isochrones based on walking distances to future metro stations. We found that the positive effects are taking place in all isochrones for the first line, while there are differences in the case of the second line of the metro project. Based on these findings, we provide guidelines for future research including public policy recommendations for the local and national government regarding value capture opportunities associated with the announcement of large-scale rail based urban transport projects. Keywords: Metro, real estate, anticipation effects, hedonic price analysis, Latin America Article history: Received: September 17, 2024 Accepted: October 12, 2024 Available online: February 17, 2025 ===== PAGE 13 (score 58, numeric-paren 0, table-words 2, var-words 12) ===== 135 Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics Table 2. Descriptive statistics isochrone analysis year 2007 – PLMB Year 2007 Treatment 1 (N=47) Treatment 2 (N=157) Treatment 3 (N=431) Treatment 4 (N=225) Control (N=6,227) Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Dependent variables Log. Price per sqmt 14.238 0.674 12.78 15.08 14.062 0.602 12.12 14.98 14.304 0.542 12.30 15.48 14.634 0.522 12.91 16.03 14.260 0.633 10.27 15.53 Log. Distance to PLMB viaduct 5.168 0.382 4.04 5.72 5.610 0.738 3.58 6.72 6.648 0.390 5.17 7.18 6.930 0.216 6.49 7.25 8.316 0.600 6.73 9.59 Log. Distance to CBD. 72 8.419 0.539 7.97 9.51 8.225 0.722 6.95 9.57 7.518 0.831 5.94 9.58 7.224 0.890 6.09 9.47 8.628 0.572 6.36 9.80 Log. Distance to nearest activity center 7.694 0.429 6.90 8.13 7.645 0.455 5.55 8.20 7.533 0.685 4.80 8.22 7.158 0.641 5.89 8.20 8.272 0.662 4.30 9.59 One 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 Two 0.149 0.360 0.00 1.00 0.146 0.355 0.00 1.00 0.053 0.225 0.00 1.00 0.027 0.161 0.00 1.00 0.041 0.199 0.00 1.00 Three 0.106 0.312 0.00 1.00 0.236 0.426 0.00 1.00 0.137 0.344 0.00 1.00 0.040 0.196 0.00 1.00 0.138 0.345 0.00 1.00 Four 0.745 0.441 0.00 1.00 0.618 0.487 0.00 1.00 0.580 0.494 0.00 1.00 0.316 0.466 0.00 1.00 0.248 0.432 0.00 1.00 Five 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.111 0.315 0.00 1.00 0.307 0.462 0.00 1.00 0.237 0.425 0.00 1.00 Six 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.118 0.323 0.00 1.00 0.311 0.464 0.00 1.00 0.336 0.472 0.00 1.00 Bedrooms One 0.213 0.414 0.00 1.00 0.191 0.394 0.00 1.00 0.202 0.402 0.00 1.00 0.191 0.394 0.00 1.00 0.094 0.292 0.00 1.00 Two 0.404 0.496 0.00 1.00 0.338 0.474 0.00 1.00 0.325 0.469 0.00 1.00 0.244 0.431 0.00 1.00 0.234 0.423 0.00 1.00 Three 0.362 0.486 0.00 1.00 0.446 0.499 0.00 1.00 0.436 0.496 0.00 1.00 0.533 0.500 0.00 1.00 0.609 0.488 0.00 1.00 Four 0.021 0.146 0.00 1.00 0.025 0.158 0.00 1.00 0.037 0.189 0.00 1.00 0.031 0.174 0.00 1.00 0.063 0.243 0.00 1.00 Bathrooms 1.706 0.544 1.00 3.00 1.819 0.680 1.00 4.00 2.232 0.896 1.00 5.00 2.621 0.896 1.00 5.00 2.559 0.967 1.00 6.00 Neighborhoods attributes Log. Population density 5.030 2.354 0.00 6.48 4.985 2.091 0.00 7.14 5.327 1.757 0.00 7.62 5.107 1.763 0.00 7.13 4.776 2.209 0.00 7.50 Log. Distance to nearest park 4.380 0.853 2.54 5.82 4.148 1.364 -1.27 5.77 4.209 0.994 -0.45 5.92 3.367 1.097 -3.50 5.83 3.810 1.392 -6.81 5.93 Log. Distance to nearest equipment 3.685 0.246 2.70 4.21 3.653 1.338 -3.11 5.90 3.893 0.904 1.22 5.70 4.289 0.803 2.38 5.46 4.428 0.881 0.58 7.06 Roads Index / Ratio -1.190 0.492 -1.67 -0.44 -1.615 0.312 -2.48 -0.44 -1.811 0.402 -2.68 -0.80 -1.739 0.355 -2.38 -1.31 -1.971 0.463 -4.73 1.37 Crime Log. Homicides 3.640 0.974 2.83 5.40 3.497 0.934 0.69 5.40 2.914 0.782 0.69 5.40 3.080 0.601 2.83 5.40 4.013 0.663 2.83 5.40 Log. Thefts 6.941 0.311 6.41 7.21 6.670 0.556 5.04 7.21 6.847 0.616 5.04 7.21 6.974 0.421 5.91 7.21 7.137 0.399 4.99 7.39 (Table continues on the next page) ===== PAGE 14 (score 18, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 2) ===== 136 JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 Year 2007 Treatment 1 (N=47) Treatment 2 (N=157) Treatment 3 (N=431) Treatment 4 (N=225) Control (N=6,227) Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Type of housing Micro-apartments 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 Affordable housing 0.106 0.312 0.00 1.00 0.096 0.295 0.00 1.00 0.039 0.195 0.00 1.00 0.009 0.094 0.00 1.00 0.055 0.227 0.00 1.00 Market housing 0.894 0.312 0.00 1.00 0.904 0.295 0.00 1.00 0.961 0.195 0.00 1.00 0.991 0.094 0.00 1.00 0.945 0.227 0.00 1.00 Small Area Plans Urban renewal 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.006 0.080 0.00 1.00 0.002 0.048 0.00 1.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.011 0.102 0.00 1.00 Urban development 0.277 0.452 0.00 1.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.019 0.135 0.00 1.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.004 0.063 0.00 1.00 BRT Buffer 500-meter built trunk 0.957 0.204 0.00 1.00 0.682 0.467 0.00 1.00 0.348 0.477 0.00 1.00 0.453 0.499 0.00 1.00 0.298 0.457 0.00 1.00 Buffer 500-meter trunk under construction 0.128 0.337 0.00 1.00 0.057 0.233 0.00 1.00 0.030 0.171 0.00 1.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.124 0.330 0.00 1.00 Buffer 500-meter Carrera Séptima Corridor 0.532 0.504 0.00 1.00 0.497 0.502 0.00 1.00 0.561 0.497 0.00 1.00 0.449 0.498 0.00 1.00 0.175 0.380 0.00 1.00 ===== PAGE 15 (score 58, numeric-paren 0, table-words 2, var-words 12) ===== 137 Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics Table 3. Descriptive statistics isochrone analysis year 2023 – PLMB Year 2023 Treatment 1 (N=221) Treatment 2 (N=649) Treatment 3 (N=1,712) Treatment 4 (N=770) Control (N=18,990) Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Dependent variables Log. Price per sqmt 15.213 0.663 12.90 16.17 15.115 0.760 12.83 16.34 15.265 0.677 12.63 16.83 15.319 0.698 13.02 16.70 15.105 0.700 10.27 17.13 Log. Distance to PLMB viaduct 4.428 1.004 2.85 5.88 5.702 0.888 2.96 6.75 6.558 0.551 3.09 7.25 6.885 0.239 6.49 7.34 8.309 0.588 4.54 9.76 Log. Distance to CBD. 72 7.843 0.777 6.70 9.51 8.038 0.874 5.54 9.57 7.729 0.784 5.89 9.58 7.748 0.930 6.09 9.57 8.644 0.540 6.34 9.87 Log. Distance to nearest activity center 7.648 0.463 5.80 8.15 7.482 0.531 5.55 8.24 7.534 0.652 4.80 8.27 7.126 0.683 5.89 8.26 8.285 0.628 4.30 9.75 Socioeconomic level One 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.019 0.00 1.00 Two 0.068 0.252 0.00 1.00 0.074 0.262 0.00 1.00 0.046 0.209 0.00 1.00 0.087 0.282 0.00 1.00 0.046 0.209 0.00 1.00 Three 0.557 0.498 0.00 1.00 0.561 0.497 0.00 1.00 0.232 0.422 0.00 1.00 0.208 0.406 0.00 1.00 0.158 0.364 0.00 1.00 Four 0.376 0.485 0.00 1.00 0.331 0.471 0.00 1.00 0.513 0.500 0.00 1.00 0.225 0.418 0.00 1.00 0.235 0.424 0.00 1.00 Five 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.015 0.123 0.00 1.00 0.131 0.337 0.00 1.00 0.340 0.474 0.00 1.00 0.256 0.436 0.00 1.00 Six 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.018 0.135 0.00 1.00 0.079 0.270 0.00 1.00 0.140 0.347 0.00 1.00 0.306 0.461 0.00 1.00 Bedrooms One 0.520 0.501 0.00 1.00 0.431 0.496 0.00 1.00 0.397 0.489 0.00 1.00 0.290 0.454 0.00 1.00 0.192 0.394 0.00 1.00 Two 0.303 0.461 0.00 1.00 0.293 0.455 0.00 1.00 0.324 0.468 0.00 1.00 0.291 0.454 0.00 1.00 0.291 0.454 0.00 1.00 Three 0.172 0.378 0.00 1.00 0.270 0.444 0.00 1.00 0.265 0.441 0.00 1.00 0.403 0.491 0.00 1.00 0.488 0.500 0.00 1.00 Four 0.005 0.067 0.00 1.00 0.006 0.078 0.00 1.00 0.014 0.118 0.00 1.00 0.017 0.129 0.00 1.00 0.029 0.168 0.00 1.00 Bathrooms 1.462 0.567 1.00 3.00 1.627 0.706 1.00 5.00 1.984 0.860 0.00 6.00 2.342 1.108 1.00 7.00 2.407 0.969 0.00 8.00 Log. Population density 4.328 2.042 0.00 7.09 4.827 1.926 0.00 7.14 5.000 1.717 0.00 7.62 5.022 1.778 0.00 7.38 4.661 2.184 -3.73 7.50 Log. Distance to nearest park 4.671 0.636 2.54 5.82 4.409 1.086 -1.27 6.25 4.434 0.908 -0.45 5.92 3.584 1.616 -3.53 6.15 3.983 1.271 -6.81 6.39 Log. Distance to nearest equipment 3.676 0.678 0.59 5.30 3.898 0.962 -3.11 5.90 3.790 0.882 1.03 5.70 4.191 0.905 0.86 5.86 4.358 0.928 -1.67 7.16 Roads Index / Ratio -1.526 0.353 -2.10 -0.44 -1.664 0.332 -2.48 -0.02 -1.744 0.383 -2.80 -0.80 -1.807 0.339 -2.68 -0.36 -1.960 0.458 -5.12 1.37 Crime Log. Homicides 2.626 0.816 2.08 4.77 2.912 0.867 1.10 4.77 2.499 0.739 1.10 4.77 2.585 0.850 1.10 4.77 3.266 0.680 1.10 4.93 Log. Thefts 8.914 0.265 7.71 9.39 8.811 0.368 6.63 9.39 8.813 0.505 6.63 9.39 8.832 0.472 6.63 9.39 8.968 0.338 6.63 9.45 (Table continues on the next page) ===== PAGE 16 (score 18, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 2) ===== 138 JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 Year 2023 Treatment 1 (N=221) Treatment 2 (N=649) Treatment 3 (N=1,712) Treatment 4 (N=770) Control (N=18,990) Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Type of housing Micro- apartments 0.054 0.227 0.00 1.00 0.032 0.177 0.00 1.00 0.020 0.140 0.00 1.00 0.025 0.155 0.00 1.00 0.002 0.047 0.00 1.00 Affordable housing 0.163 0.370 0.00 1.00 0.096 0.294 0.00 1.00 0.053 0.224 0.00 1.00 0.081 0.272 0.00 1.00 0.079 0.270 0.00 1.00 Market housing 0.783 0.413 0.00 1.00 0.872 0.334 0.00 1.00 0.927 0.260 0.00 1.00 0.895 0.307 0.00 1.00 0.918 0.274 0.00 1.00 Small Area Plans Urban renewal 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.002 0.039 0.00 1.00 0.001 0.034 0.00 1.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.018 0.131 0.00 1.00 Urban development 0.122 0.328 0.00 1.00 0.002 0.039 0.00 1.00 0.018 0.133 0.00 1.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.006 0.078 0.00 1.00 BRT Buffer 500- meter built trunk 0.964 0.187 0.00 1.00 0.710 0.454 0.00 1.00 0.502 0.500 0.00 1.00 0.548 0.498 0.00 1.00 0.289 0.453 0.00 1.00 Buffer 500- meter trunk under construction 0.036 0.187 0.00 1.00 0.037 0.189 0.00 1.00 0.009 0.093 0.00 1.00 0.023 0.151 0.00 1.00 0.123 0.329 0.00 1.00 Buffer 500- meter Carrera Séptima Corridor 0.579 0.495 0.00 1.00 0.342 0.475 0.00 1.00 0.457 0.498 0.00 1.00 0.204 0.403 0.00 1.00 0.149 0.357 0.00 1.00 ===== PAGE 18 (score 90, numeric-paren 64, table-words 6, var-words 1) ===== 140 JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 Table 4. Hedonic price model of the anticipation effects of the future PLMB on real estate development prices between 2007 and 2023 in isochrone analysis (N=278,393). Base Model Model 2 (Partial Plans) Model 3 (BRT buffer 500mts) Model 4 (Partial Plans & BRT buffer 500mts) Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Year 2007 0.001 -0.009 0.000 -0.009 0.001 -0.009 0.000 -0.009 2008 0.135 *** -0.008 0.134 *** -0.008 0.135 *** -0.008 0.134 *** -0.008 2009 0.203 *** -0.008 0.203 *** -0.008 0.203 *** -0.008 0.203 *** -0.008 2010 0.268 *** -0.008 0.268 *** -0.008 0.269 *** -0.008 0.268 *** -0.008 2011 0.328 *** -0.008 0.327 *** -0.008 0.329 *** -0.008 0.327 *** -0.008 2012 0.385 *** -0.008 0.383 *** -0.008 0.385 *** -0.008 0.384 *** -0.008 2013 0.462 *** -0.008 0.460 *** -0.008 0.463 *** -0.008 0.461 *** -0.008 2014 0.516 *** -0.008 0.514 *** -0.008 0.517 *** -0.008 0.515 *** -0.008 2015 0.553 *** -0.008 0.550 *** -0.008 0.553 *** -0.008 0.551 *** -0.008 2016 0.649 *** -0.009 0.646 *** -0.009 0.650 *** -0.009 0.647 *** -0.009 2017 0.705 *** -0.010 0.701 *** -0.010 0.706 *** -0.010 0.702 *** -0.010 2018 0.745 *** -0.011 0.739 *** -0.011 0.746 *** -0.011 0.741 *** -0.011 2019 0.778 *** -0.012 0.772 *** -0.012 0.779 *** -0.012 0.774 *** -0.012 2020 0.787 *** -0.010 0.783 *** -0.010 0.788 *** -0.010 0.784 *** -0.010 2021 0.821 *** -0.011 0.815 *** -0.011 0.822 *** -0.011 0.817 *** -0.011 2022 0.858 *** -0.012 0.852 *** -0.012 0.859 *** -0.012 0.854 *** -0.012 2023 0.856 *** -0.011 0.850 *** -0.011 0.857 *** -0.011 0.852 *** -0.011 (Table continues on the next page) ===== PAGE 19 (score 77, numeric-paren 51, table-words 5, var-words 2) ===== 141 Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics Base Model Model 2 (Partial Plans) Model 3 (BRT buffer 500mts) Model 4 (Partial Plans & BRT buffer 500mts) Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Interaction isochrone 5min * year 2006*isochrone 5min PLMB -0.252 *** -0.041 -0.277 *** -0.042 -0.258 *** -0.041 -0.283 *** -0.043 2007*isochrone 5min PLMB 0.081 -0.072 0.039 -0.076 0.074 -0.072 0.032 -0.076 2008*isochrone 5min PLMB -0.009 -0.059 -0.045 -0.059 -0.016 -0.059 -0.053 -0.059 2009*isochrone 5min PLMB 0.054 -0.041 0.014 -0.044 0.046 -0.041 0.006 -0.043 2010*isochrone 5min PLMB -0.026 -0.075 -0.063 -0.076 -0.034 -0.075 -0.071 -0.076 2011*isochrone 5min PLMB -0.065 -0.043 -0.102 ** -0.044 -0.072 * -0.043 -0.109 ** -0.044 2012*isochrone 5min PLMB -0.105 ** -0.041 -0.142 *** -0.043 -0.112 *** -0.041 -0.149 *** -0.043 2013*isochrone 5min PLMB -0.324 *** -0.053 -0.353 *** -0.053 -0.330 *** -0.053 -0.360 *** -0.053 2014*isochrone 5min PLMB -0.065 * -0.040 -0.092 ** -0.041 -0.072 * -0.040 -0.099 ** -0.041 2015*isochrone 5min PLMB -0.224 *** -0.046 -0.252 *** -0.047 -0.232 *** -0.046 -0.259 *** -0.047 2016*isochrone 5min PLMB 0.051 -0.040 0.028 -0.041 0.044 -0.040 0.021 -0.041 2017*isochrone 5min PLMB 0.166 *** -0.038 0.144 *** -0.039 0.158 *** -0.038 0.137 *** -0.039 2018*isochrone 5min PLMB 0.157 *** -0.038 0.136 *** -0.039 0.149 *** -0.038 0.128 *** -0.039 2019*isochrone 5min PLMB 0.147 *** -0.038 0.126 *** -0.039 0.139 *** -0.038 0.118 *** -0.039 2020*isochrone 5min PLMB 0.112 *** -0.036 0.092 ** -0.037 0.104 *** -0.036 0.084 ** -0.037 2021*isochrone 5min PLMB 0.119 *** -0.035 0.101 *** -0.036 0.111 *** -0.035 0.093 *** -0.036 2022*isochrone 5min PLMB 0.136 *** -0.033 0.120 *** -0.034 0.128 *** -0.033 0.112 *** -0.034 2023*isochrone 5min PLMB 0.137 *** -0.033 0.120 *** -0.034 0.129 *** -0.033 0.113 *** -0.034 (Table continues on the next page) ===== PAGE 20 (score 78, numeric-paren 54, table-words 5, var-words 0) ===== 142 JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 Base Model Model 2 (Partial Plans) Model 3 (BRT buffer 500mts) Model 4 (Partial Plans & BRT buffer 500mts) Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Interaction isochrone 10min * year 2006*isochrone 10min PLMB -0.083 *** -0.021 -0.082 *** -0.021 -0.088 *** -0.021 -0.088 *** -0.021 2007*isochrone 10min PLMB -0.111 *** -0.032 -0.109 *** -0.032 -0.116 *** -0.032 -0.115 *** -0.032 2008*isochrone 10min PLMB -0.204 *** -0.029 -0.203 *** -0.029 -0.210 *** -0.029 -0.209 *** -0.029 2009*isochrone 10min PLMB -0.159 *** -0.022 -0.158 *** -0.022 -0.165 *** -0.022 -0.164 *** -0.022 2010*isochrone 10min PLMB -0.141 *** -0.024 -0.138 *** -0.024 -0.147 *** -0.024 -0.144 *** -0.024 2011*isochrone 10min PLMB -0.177 *** -0.023 -0.176 *** -0.023 -0.183 *** -0.023 -0.182 *** -0.023 2012*isochrone 10min PLMB -0.266 *** -0.026 -0.266 *** -0.026 -0.272 *** -0.026 -0.272 *** -0.026 2013*isochrone 10min PLMB -0.167 *** -0.024 -0.166 *** -0.024 -0.173 *** -0.024 -0.172 *** -0.024 2014*isochrone 10min PLMB -0.187 *** -0.024 -0.186 *** -0.024 -0.193 *** -0.024 -0.192 *** -0.024 2015*isochrone 10min PLMB -0.151 *** -0.025 -0.150 *** -0.025 -0.157 *** -0.025 -0.156 *** -0.025 2016*isochrone 10min PLMB -0.128 *** -0.026 -0.127 *** -0.026 -0.134 *** -0.026 -0.133 *** -0.026 2017*isochrone 10min PLMB -0.081 *** -0.025 -0.083 *** -0.025 -0.087 *** -0.025 -0.089 *** -0.025 2018*isochrone 10min PLMB -0.060 ** -0.025 -0.062 ** -0.025 -0.066 *** -0.025 -0.068 *** -0.025 2019*isochrone 10min PLMB -0.020 -0.024 -0.022 -0.024 -0.026 -0.024 -0.027 -0.024 2020*isochrone 10min PLMB -0.008 -0.024 -0.009 -0.024 -0.013 -0.024 -0.015 -0.024 2021*isochrone 10min PLMB 0.023 -0.023 0.023 -0.023 0.017 -0.023 0.017 -0.023 2022*isochrone 10min PLMB 0.042 * -0.023 0.042 * -0.023 0.036 -0.023 0.036 -0.023 2023*isochrone 10min PLMB 0.038 -0.023 0.038 -0.023 0.032 -0.023 0.032 -0.023 (Table continues on next page) ===== PAGE 21 (score 78, numeric-paren 52, table-words 5, var-words 2) ===== 143 Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics Base Model Model 2 (Partial Plans) Model 3 (BRT buffer 500mts) Model 4 (Partial Plans & BRT buffer 500mts) Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Interaction isochrone 15min * year 2006*isochrone 15min PLMB -0.150 *** -0.025 -0.153 *** -0.025 -0.154 *** -0.025 -0.156 *** -0.025 2007*isochrone 15min PLMB -0.071 *** -0.020 -0.073 *** -0.020 -0.074 *** -0.020 -0.077 *** -0.020 2008*isochrone 15min PLMB -0.165 *** -0.019 -0.167 *** -0.019 -0.168 *** -0.019 -0.170 *** -0.019 2009*isochrone 15min PLMB -0.053 *** -0.016 -0.054 *** -0.016 -0.056 *** -0.016 -0.057 *** -0.016 2010*isochrone 15min PLMB -0.037 ** -0.018 -0.036 ** -0.018 -0.040 ** -0.018 -0.040 ** -0.018 2011*isochrone 15min PLMB -0.023 -0.015 -0.024 -0.015 -0.026 * -0.015 -0.028 * -0.015 2012*isochrone 15min PLMB -0.082 *** -0.016 -0.084 *** -0.017 -0.085 *** -0.017 -0.088 *** -0.017 2013*isochrone 15min PLMB -0.095 *** -0.016 -0.098 *** -0.016 -0.098 *** -0.016 -0.102 *** -0.016 2014*isochrone 15min PLMB -0.090 *** -0.016 -0.094 *** -0.016 -0.094 *** -0.016 -0.098 *** -0.016 2015*isochrone 15min PLMB -0.148 *** -0.017 -0.152 *** -0.017 -0.151 *** -0.017 -0.155 *** -0.017 2016*isochrone 15min PLMB -0.057 *** -0.016 -0.061 *** -0.016 -0.062 *** -0.016 -0.065 *** -0.016 2017*isochrone 15min PLMB -0.022 -0.016 -0.025 -0.016 -0.026 * -0.016 -0.030 * -0.016 2018*isochrone 15min PLMB -0.010 -0.016 -0.014 -0.016 -0.014 -0.016 -0.018 -0.016 2019*isochrone 15min PLMB 0.024 -0.016 0.020 -0.016 0.020 -0.016 0.016 -0.016 2020*isochrone 15min PLMB 0.012 -0.016 0.008 -0.016 0.007 -0.016 0.003 -0.016 2021*isochrone 15min PLMB 0.017 -0.015 0.014 -0.015 0.012 -0.016 0.009 -0.016 2022*isochrone 15min PLMB 0.034 ** -0.016 0.031 ** -0.016 0.029 * -0.016 0.027 * -0.016 2023*isochrone 15min PLMB 0.037 ** -0.016 0.034 ** -0.016 0.032 ** -0.016 0.029 * -0.016 (Table continues on the next page) ===== PAGE 22 (score 69, numeric-paren 45, table-words 5, var-words 0) ===== 144 JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 Base Model Model 2 (Partial Plans) Model 3 (BRT buffer 500mts) Model 4 (Partial Plans & BRT buffer 500mts) Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Interaction isochrone 20min * year 2006*isochrone 20min PLMB -0.314 *** -0.056 -0.313 *** -0.056 -0.319 *** -0.056 -0.317 *** -0.056 2007*isochrone 20min PLMB 0.099 *** -0.028 0.101 *** -0.028 0.094 *** -0.029 0.096 *** -0.028 2008*isochrone 20min PLMB 0.039 -0.026 0.040 -0.026 0.034 -0.026 0.036 -0.026 2009*isochrone 20min PLMB 0.069 *** -0.020 0.071 *** -0.020 0.064 *** -0.020 0.067 *** -0.020 2010*isochrone 20min PLMB 0.074 *** -0.021 0.078 *** -0.021 0.069 *** -0.021 0.074 *** -0.021 2011*isochrone 20min PLMB 0.031 * -0.018 0.033 * -0.018 0.027 -0.018 0.029 -0.018 2012*isochrone 20min PLMB -0.021 -0.020 -0.019 -0.019 -0.025 -0.020 -0.022 -0.020 2013*isochrone 20min PLMB -0.063 *** -0.019 -0.061 *** -0.019 -0.067 *** -0.019 -0.065 *** -0.019 2014*isochrone 20min PLMB -0.044 ** -0.021 -0.043 ** -0.021 -0.048 ** -0.021 -0.046 ** -0.021 2015*isochrone 20min PLMB -0.052 ** -0.022 -0.049 ** -0.022 -0.055 ** -0.022 -0.053 ** -0.022 2016*isochrone 20min PLMB -0.039 * -0.023 -0.037 -0.023 -0.043 * -0.023 -0.040 * -0.023 2017*isochrone 20min PLMB -0.018 -0.023 -0.016 -0.023 -0.022 -0.023 -0.019 -0.023 2018*isochrone 20min PLMB -0.003 -0.022 -0.001 -0.023 -0.007 -0.023 -0.004 -0.023 2019*isochrone 20min PLMB 0.016 -0.022 0.019 -0.022 0.012 -0.022 0.016 -0.022 2020*isochrone 20min PLMB 0.016 -0.022 0.018 -0.022 0.012 -0.022 0.015 -0.022 2021*isochrone 20min PLMB 0.091 *** -0.022 0.095 *** -0.022 0.087 *** -0.022 0.091 *** -0.022 2022*isochrone 20min PLMB 0.072 *** -0.021 0.076 *** -0.022 0.068 *** -0.021 0.073 *** -0.022 2023*isochrone 20min PLMB 0.083 *** -0.022 0.087 *** -0.022 0.079 *** -0.022 0.083 *** -0.022 (Table continues on the next page) ===== PAGE 23 (score 88, numeric-paren 56, table-words 5, var-words 10) ===== 145 Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics Base Model Model 2 (Partial Plans) Model 3 (BRT buffer 500mts) Model 4 (Partial Plans & BRT buffer 500mts) Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Bedrooms 1 0.833 *** -0.007 0.834 *** -0.007 0.833 *** -0.007 0.834 *** -0.007 2 0.563 *** -0.006 0.563 *** -0.006 0.563 *** -0.006 0.564 *** -0.006 3 0.338 *** -0.006 0.338 *** -0.006 0.338 *** -0.006 0.339 *** -0.006 Bathrooms 0.187 *** -0.002 0.186 *** -0.002 0.187 *** -0.002 0.186 *** -0.002 Housing type Market housing (reference) Micro-apartments 0.523 *** -0.010 0.524 *** -0.010 0.522 *** -0.010 0.523 *** -0.010 Affordable housing -0.199 *** -0.005 -0.200 *** -0.005 -0.198 *** -0.005 -0.199 *** -0.005 Socioeconomic Level (1 reference) 2 -0.886 *** -0.028 -0.889 *** -0.028 -0.885 *** -0.028 -0.888 *** -0.028 3 -0.419 *** -0.028 -0.423 *** -0.028 -0.420 *** -0.028 -0.423 *** -0.028 4 -0.239 *** -0.029 -0.245 *** -0.029 -0.240 *** -0.029 -0.245 *** -0.029 5 -0.125 *** -0.029 -0.128 *** -0.029 -0.128 *** -0.029 -0.131 *** -0.029 6 -0.028 -0.029 -0.031 -0.029 -0.026 -0.029 -0.029 -0.029 Neighborhood attributes Log. Population density -0.006 *** 0.000 -0.006 *** 0.000 -0.006 *** 0.000 -0.006 *** 0.000 Log. Distance to nearest park 0.015 *** -0.001 0.015 *** -0.001 0.015 *** -0.001 0.015 *** -0.001 Log. Distance to nearest equipment -0.013 *** -0.001 -0.013 *** -0.001 -0.013 *** -0.001 -0.013 *** -0.001 Roads Index -0.018 *** -0.002 -0.017 *** -0.002 -0.018 *** -0.002 -0.016 *** -0.002 (Table continues on the next page) ===== PAGE 24 (score 52, numeric-paren 33, table-words 5, var-words 2) ===== 146 JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 Base Model Model 2 (Partial Plans) Model 3 (BRT buffer 500mts) Model 4 (Partial Plans & BRT buffer 500mts) Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Location Log. Distance to CBD.72 -0.038 *** -0.003 -0.039 *** -0.003 -0.039 *** -0.003 -0.040 *** -0.003 Log. Distance to nearest activity center -0.049 *** -0.003 -0.046 *** -0.003 -0.050 *** -0.003 -0.047 *** -0.003 Log. Distance to PLMB viaduct -0.020 *** -0.003 -0.020 *** -0.003 -0.019 *** -0.003 -0.019 *** -0.003 Crime Log. Homicides -0.027 *** -0.002 -0.029 *** -0.002 -0.027 *** -0.002 -0.028 *** -0.002 Log. Thefts -0.033 *** -0.004 -0.031 *** -0.004 -0.034 *** -0.004 -0.032 *** -0.004 BRT Buffer 500mts built trunk 0.012 *** -0.002 0.012 *** -0.002 Buffer 500mts trunk under construction -0.019 *** -0.003 -0.017 *** -0.003 Buffer 500mts Carrera Séptima Corridor 0.003 -0.003 0.006 ** -0.003 Partial Plans Urban Renewal 0.064 *** -0.010 0.063 *** -0.010 Development 0.158 *** -0.012 0.157 *** -0.012 Constant 14.812 *** -0.049 14.792 *** -0.049 14.817 *** -0.049 14.793 *** -0.049 Observations 278,393 278,393 278,393 278,393 R – Squared 0.473 0.474 0.473 0.474 Robust standard errors in parentheses ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1 ===== PAGE 25 (score 7, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 2) ===== 147 Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics Base Model Model 2 (control with partial plans) Model 3 (control with BRT buffer 500mts) Model 4 (control with partial plans and BRT buffer 500mts) Figure 3. Effects of the PLMB on real estate development prices in Bogotá by Isochrone (2006- 2023) Sources: Statistical analysis on STATA (STATA, 2024) -0.30 -0.25 -0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Coeff. 5min Coeff. 10min Coeff. 15min Coeff. 20min Creation Metro Agency CONPES 3900 CONPES 3945 Contract signed Starting construction -0.30 -0.25 -0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Coeff. 5min Coeff. 10min Coeff. 15min Coeff. 20min Creation Metro Agency CONPES 3900 CONPES 3945 Contract signed Starting construction -0.30 -0.25 -0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Coeff. 5min Coeff. 10min Coeff. 15min Coeff. 20min Creation Metro Agency CONPES 3900 CONPES 3945 Contract signed Starting construction -0.30 -0.25 -0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Coeff. 5min Coeff. 10min Coeff. 15min Coeff. 20min Creation Metro Agency CONPES 3900 CONPES 3945 Contract signed Starting construction ===== PAGE 27 (score 58, numeric-paren 0, table-words 2, var-words 12) ===== 149 Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics Table 5. Descriptive statistics isochrone analysis year 2007 – L2MB Year 2007 Treatment 1 (N=2) Treatment 2 (N=6) Treatment 3 (N=88) Treatment 4 (N=178) Control (N=6,813) Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Dependent variables Log. Price per sqmt 13.251 0.197 13.11 13.39 13.767 0.874 12.00 14.24 13.769 0.794 12.06 14.95 13.665 0.443 12.04 14.63 14.293 0.619 10.27 16.03 Independent variables Log. Distance to L2MB 5.300 0.000 5.30 5.30 6.136 0.855 4.60 6.66 5.520 1.196 1.68 6.90 6.361 0.718 0.84 7.15 8.157 0.650 5.12 9.65 Log. Distance to CBD. 72 9.482 0.000 9.48 9.48 8.337 0.694 7.89 9.50 8.977 0.420 7.80 9.42 8.957 0.511 7.68 9.45 8.488 0.704 5.94 9.80 Log. Distance to nearest activity center 9.383 0.000 9.38 9.38 8.255 0.673 7.83 9.40 8.851 0.412 7.82 9.32 8.838 0.489 7.19 9.34 8.148 0.707 4.30 9.59 Socioeconomic level One 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 Two 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.167 0.408 0.00 1.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.208 0.407 0.00 1.00 0.041 0.198 0.00 1.00 Three 1.000 0.000 1.00 1.00 0.167 0.408 0.00 1.00 0.432 0.498 0.00 1.00 0.534 0.500 0.00 1.00 0.123 0.328 0.00 1.00 Four 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.667 0.516 0.00 1.00 0.364 0.484 0.00 1.00 0.230 0.422 0.00 1.00 0.282 0.450 0.00 1.00 Five 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.102 0.305 0.00 1.00 0.022 0.149 0.00 1.00 0.232 0.422 0.00 1.00 Six 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.102 0.305 0.00 1.00 0.006 0.075 0.00 1.00 0.323 0.468 0.00 1.00 Bedrooms One 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.034 0.183 0.00 1.00 0.067 0.251 0.00 1.00 0.109 0.312 0.00 1.00 Two 0.500 0.707 0.00 1.00 0.167 0.408 0.00 1.00 0.170 0.378 0.00 1.00 0.270 0.445 0.00 1.00 0.243 0.429 0.00 1.00 Three 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.667 0.516 0.00 1.00 0.750 0.435 0.00 1.00 0.596 0.492 0.00 1.00 0.589 0.492 0.00 1.00 Four 0.500 0.707 0.00 1.00 0.167 0.408 0.00 1.00 0.045 0.209 0.00 1.00 0.067 0.251 0.00 1.00 0.059 0.235 0.00 1.00 Bathrooms 1.500 0.707 1.00 2.00 1.833 0.408 1.00 2.00 2.273 0.968 1.00 4.00 1.669 0.692 1.00 4.00 2.546 0.960 1.00 6.00 Neighborhoods attributes Log. Population density 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 4.010 3.126 0.00 6.48 4.580 2.950 0.00 7.33 4.505 2.771 0.00 7.35 4.840 2.142 0.00 7.62 Log. Distance to nearest park 4.324 0.000 4.32 4.32 3.665 0.936 2.60 4.57 3.864 1.075 0.74 5.29 3.744 1.695 -5.36 5.93 3.834 1.360 -6.81 5.92 Log. Distance to nearest equipment 4.987 0.000 4.99 4.99 4.264 0.849 3.31 5.54 4.690 0.652 2.74 5.34 4.403 0.755 2.05 5.64 4.364 0.913 -3.11 7.06 Roads Index / Ratio -3.094 0.000 -3.09 -3.09 -2.072 0.518 -3.09 -1.60 -1.893 0.405 -2.57 -0.99 -1.869 0.673 -3.09 -0.24 -1.942 0.457 -4.73 1.37 Crime Log. Homicides 4.585 0.000 4.59 4.59 3.973 0.442 3.69 4.59 4.502 0.205 3.69 4.59 4.430 0.303 3.69 4.59 3.881 0.750 0.69 5.40 Log. Thefts 7.385 0.000 7.39 7.39 6.554 0.524 6.22 7.39 7.193 0.288 6.22 7.39 7.106 0.390 6.22 7.39 7.102 0.433 4.99 7.39 (Table continues on next page) ===== PAGE 28 (score 18, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 2) ===== 150 JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 Year 2007 Treatment 1 (N=2) Treatment 2 (N=6) Treatment 3 (N=88) Treatment 4 (N=178) Control (N=6,813) Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Type of housing Micro- apartments 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 Affordable housing 1.000 0.000 1.00 1.00 0.167 0.408 0.00 1.00 0.193 0.397 0.00 1.00 0.213 0.411 0.00 1.00 0.047 0.212 0.00 1.00 Market housing 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.833 0.408 0.00 1.00 0.807 0.397 0.00 1.00 0.787 0.411 0.00 1.00 0.953 0.212 0.00 1.00 Small Area Plans Urban renewal 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.011 0.107 0.00 1.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.010 0.099 0.00 1.00 Urban development 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.007 0.082 0.00 1.00 BRT Buffer 500- meter built trunk 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.667 0.516 0.00 1.00 0.170 0.378 0.00 1.00 0.146 0.354 0.00 1.00 0.325 0.468 0.00 1.00 Buffer 500- meter trunk under construction 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.091 0.289 0.00 1.00 0.045 0.208 0.00 1.00 0.116 0.320 0.00 1.00 Buffer 500- meter Carrera Séptima Corridor 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.226 0.418 0.00 1.00 ===== PAGE 29 (score 58, numeric-paren 0, table-words 2, var-words 12) ===== 151 Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics Table 6. Descriptive statistics isochrone analysis year 2023 – L2MB Year 2023 Treatment 1 (N=31) Treatment 2 (N=52) Treatment 3 (N=327) Treatment 4 (N=549) Control (N=21,383) Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Dependent variables Log. Price per sqmt 15.138 0.840 13.11 15.99 15.020 0.679 13.79 16.05 14.783 0.623 13.06 15.74 14.513 0.818 12.88 16.03 15.147 0.691 10.27 17.13 Independent variables Log. Distance to L2MB 4.400 0.847 2.38 5.47 5.655 1.102 3.53 6.70 5.991 1.069 1.68 6.90 6.363 0.637 0.84 7.36 8.198 0.648 2.93 9.87 Log. Distance to CBD. 72 7.738 1.224 6.70 9.49 8.419 0.616 7.84 9.50 8.760 0.438 7.80 9.42 8.867 0.449 7.68 9.46 8.506 0.670 5.54 9.87 Log. Distance to nearest activity center 7.864 1.027 7.10 9.39 8.316 0.597 7.72 9.40 8.626 0.441 7.82 9.32 8.739 0.427 7.19 9.35 8.136 0.700 4.30 9.75 Socioeconomic level One 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.018 0.00 1.00 Two 0.258 0.445 0.00 1.00 0.154 0.364 0.00 1.00 0.138 0.345 0.00 1.00 0.239 0.427 0.00 1.00 0.041 0.199 0.00 1.00 Three 0.194 0.402 0.00 1.00 0.731 0.448 0.00 1.00 0.422 0.495 0.00 1.00 0.594 0.492 0.00 1.00 0.165 0.371 0.00 1.00 Four 0.548 0.506 0.00 1.00 0.115 0.323 0.00 1.00 0.385 0.487 0.00 1.00 0.137 0.344 0.00 1.00 0.261 0.439 0.00 1.00 Five 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.028 0.164 0.00 1.00 0.029 0.168 0.00 1.00 0.249 0.433 0.00 1.00 Six 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.028 0.164 0.00 1.00 0.002 0.043 0.00 1.00 0.283 0.451 0.00 1.00 Bedrooms One 0.323 0.475 0.00 1.00 0.269 0.448 0.00 1.00 0.086 0.280 0.00 1.00 0.144 0.351 0.00 1.00 0.225 0.417 0.00 1.00 Two 0.323 0.475 0.00 1.00 0.288 0.457 0.00 1.00 0.242 0.429 0.00 1.00 0.352 0.478 0.00 1.00 0.293 0.455 0.00 1.00 Three 0.323 0.475 0.00 1.00 0.404 0.495 0.00 1.00 0.661 0.474 0.00 1.00 0.483 0.500 0.00 1.00 0.456 0.498 0.00 1.00 Four 0.032 0.180 0.00 1.00 0.038 0.194 0.00 1.00 0.012 0.110 0.00 1.00 0.022 0.146 0.00 1.00 0.027 0.162 0.00 1.00 Bathrooms 1.581 0.620 1.00 3.00 1.692 0.544 1.00 3.00 2.168 0.854 1.00 4.00 1.628 0.666 1.00 5.00 2.364 0.976 0.00 8.00 Neighborhoods attributes Log. Population density 4.361 1.621 0.00 6.52 5.563 1.643 0.00 6.48 5.406 2.216 0.00 7.33 4.929 2.499 -3.73 7.35 4.683 2.121 -1.77 7.62 Log. Distance to nearest park 4.812 0.758 3.38 5.61 3.917 2.200 -4.10 5.35 3.939 0.981 0.74 5.59 4.008 1.300 -5.36 5.93 4.024 1.262 -6.81 6.39 Log. Distance to nearest equipment 4.366 0.590 3.55 5.34 4.353 0.943 1.33 5.54 4.584 0.716 2.07 5.76 4.352 0.776 2.05 6.06 4.282 0.946 -3.11 7.16 Roads Index / Ratio -2.124 0.641 -3.09 -1.40 -1.983 0.417 -3.09 -1.60 -1.819 0.298 -2.98 -0.99 -1.918 0.605 -3.50 -0.24 -1.926 0.450 -5.12 1.37 Crime Log. Homicides 2.839 0.832 2.08 4.03 3.335 0.531 2.83 4.03 3.778 0.327 2.83 4.03 3.767 0.369 2.83 4.03 3.142 0.741 1.10 4.93 Log. Thefts 9.035 0.322 8.59 9.45 8.965 0.394 8.59 9.45 9.295 0.238 8.59 9.45 9.283 0.268 8.59 9.45 8.932 0.360 6.63 9.45 (Table continues on next page) ===== PAGE 30 (score 18, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 2) ===== 152 JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 Year 2023 Treatment 1 (N=31) Treatment 2 (N=52) Treatment 3 (N=327) Treatment 4 (N=549) Control (N=21,383) Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Type of housing Micro- apartments 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.002 0.043 0.00 1.00 0.006 0.077 0.00 1.00 Affordable housing 0.323 0.475 0.00 1.00 0.154 0.364 0.00 1.00 0.208 0.406 0.00 1.00 0.311 0.464 0.00 1.00 0.070 0.255 0.00 1.00 Market housing 0.677 0.475 0.00 1.00 0.846 0.364 0.00 1.00 0.792 0.406 0.00 1.00 0.687 0.464 0.00 1.00 0.924 0.265 0.00 1.00 Small Area Plans Urban renewal 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.003 0.055 0.00 1.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.016 0.124 0.00 1.00 Urban development 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.047 0.213 0.00 1.00 0.007 0.083 0.00 1.00 BRT Buffer 500- meter built trunk 0.613 0.495 0.00 1.00 0.519 0.505 0.00 1.00 0.223 0.417 0.00 1.00 0.281 0.450 0.00 1.00 0.335 0.472 0.00 1.00 Buffer 500- meter trunk under construction 0.097 0.301 0.00 1.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.294 0.456 0.00 1.00 0.046 0.209 0.00 1.00 0.107 0.309 0.00 1.00 Buffer 500- meter Carrera Séptima Corridor 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.193 0.395 0.00 1.00 ===== PAGE 32 (score 94, numeric-paren 68, table-words 6, var-words 1) ===== 154 JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 Table 7. Hedonic price model of the anticipation effects of the future L2MB on real estate development prices between 2007 and 2023 in isochrone analysis (N=278,393) Base Model Model 2 Urban renewal partial plans Model 3 BRT buffer 500 mts Model 4 Urban renewal partial plans & BRT buffer 500 mts Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Year 2007 0.020 ** -0.009 0.020 ** -0.009 0.020 ** -0.009 0.020 ** -0.009 2008 0.143 *** -0.008 0.142 *** -0.008 0.143 *** -0.008 0.142 *** -0.008 2009 0.221 *** -0.008 0.221 *** -0.008 0.222 *** -0.008 0.221 *** -0.008 2010 0.278 *** -0.008 0.277 *** -0.008 0.276 *** -0.008 0.276 *** -0.008 2011 0.340 *** -0.008 0.338 *** -0.008 0.337 *** -0.008 0.335 *** -0.008 2012 0.390 *** -0.008 0.388 *** -0.008 0.387 *** -0.008 0.385 *** -0.008 2013 0.466 *** -0.008 0.463 *** -0.008 0.462 *** -0.008 0.459 *** -0.008 2014 0.521 *** -0.008 0.518 *** -0.008 0.516 *** -0.008 0.513 *** -0.008 2015 0.553 *** -0.008 0.549 *** -0.008 0.548 *** -0.008 0.545 *** -0.008 2016 0.654 *** -0.008 0.649 *** -0.008 0.647 *** -0.008 0.643 *** -0.008 2017 0.706 *** -0.010 0.699 *** -0.010 0.695 *** -0.010 0.689 *** -0.010 2018 0.743 *** -0.011 0.735 *** -0.011 0.730 *** -0.011 0.723 *** -0.011 2019 0.778 *** -0.012 0.769 *** -0.012 0.763 *** -0.012 0.756 *** -0.012 2020 0.793 *** -0.010 0.786 *** -0.010 0.782 *** -0.010 0.776 *** -0.010 2021 0.827 *** -0.011 0.820 *** -0.011 0.815 *** -0.011 0.808 *** -0.011 2022 0.864 *** -0.012 0.855 *** -0.012 0.850 *** -0.012 0.842 *** -0.012 2023 0.868 *** -0.011 0.860 *** -0.011 0.855 *** -0.011 0.848 *** -0.011 (Table continues on next page) ===== PAGE 33 (score 76, numeric-paren 50, table-words 5, var-words 2) ===== 155 Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics Base Model Model 2 Urban renewal partial plans Model 3 BRT buffer 500 mts Model 4 Urban renewal partial plans & BRT buffer 500 mts Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Interaction isochrone 5min + year 2006*isochrone 5min SLMB 0.227 *** -0.069 0.235 *** -0.070 0.247 *** -0.071 0.254 *** -0.071 2007*isochrone 5min SLMB 0.271 *** -0.081 0.278 *** -0.082 0.292 *** -0.082 0.298 *** -0.083 2008*isochrone 5min SLMB 0.073 -0.067 0.072 -0.068 0.092 -0.068 0.090 -0.069 2009*isochrone 5min SLMB 0.041 -0.066 0.040 -0.067 0.059 -0.066 0.057 -0.067 2010*isochrone 5min SLMB -0.152 * -0.091 -0.149 * -0.090 -0.132 -0.091 -0.130 -0.091 2011*isochrone 5min SLMB 0.200 *** -0.078 0.205 *** -0.078 0.220 *** -0.078 0.223 *** -0.079 2012*isochrone 5min SLMB 0.188 ** -0.087 0.193 ** -0.087 0.207 ** -0.087 0.210 ** -0.088 2013*isochrone 5min SLMB 0.070 -0.104 0.074 -0.104 0.088 -0.105 0.091 -0.105 2014*isochrone 5min SLMB 0.099 -0.082 0.103 -0.083 0.117 -0.083 0.121 -0.083 2015*isochrone 5min SLMB 0.054 -0.081 0.059 -0.081 0.073 -0.081 0.076 -0.082 2016*isochrone 5min SLMB 0.248 *** -0.075 0.253 *** -0.075 0.259 *** -0.074 0.264 *** -0.075 2017*isochrone 5min SLMB 0.200 *** -0.074 0.206 *** -0.075 0.211 *** -0.074 0.216 *** -0.074 2018*isochrone 5min SLMB 0.171 ** -0.076 0.177 ** -0.076 0.183 ** -0.075 0.188 ** -0.075 2019*isochrone 5min SLMB 0.235 *** -0.076 0.241 *** -0.076 0.248 *** -0.075 0.254 *** -0.076 2020*isochrone 5min SLMB 0.256 *** -0.076 0.262 *** -0.077 0.269 *** -0.076 0.274 *** -0.076 2021*isochrone 5min SLMB 0.236 *** -0.076 0.242 *** -0.077 0.249 *** -0.076 0.255 *** -0.076 2022*isochrone 5min SLMB 0.216 *** -0.076 0.222 *** -0.077 0.229 *** -0.076 0.234 *** -0.076 2023*isochrone 5min SLMB 0.201 *** -0.076 0.208 *** -0.076 0.214 *** -0.076 0.220 *** -0.076 (Table continues on next page) ===== PAGE 34 (score 87, numeric-paren 63, table-words 5, var-words 0) ===== 156 JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 Base Model Model 2 Urban renewal partial plans Model 3 BRT buffer 500 mts Model 4 Urban renewal partial plans & BRT buffer 500 mts Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Interaction isochrone 10min + year 2006*isochrone 10min SLMB 0.319 *** -0.041 0.325 *** -0.041 0.337 *** -0.041 0.341 *** -0.041 2007*isochrone 10min SLMB 0.238 *** -0.053 0.243 *** -0.053 0.256 *** -0.053 0.260 *** -0.053 2008*isochrone 10min SLMB 0.141 *** -0.042 0.146 *** -0.042 0.160 *** -0.042 0.163 *** -0.042 2009*isochrone 10min SLMB 0.008 -0.048 0.012 -0.048 0.024 -0.049 0.027 -0.049 2010*isochrone 10min SLMB 0.100 *** -0.036 0.104 *** -0.036 0.116 *** -0.036 0.119 *** -0.036 2011*isochrone 10min SLMB 0.053 -0.035 0.058 * -0.035 0.070 ** -0.035 0.074 ** -0.035 2012*isochrone 10min SLMB 0.023 -0.047 0.028 -0.046 0.039 -0.047 0.043 -0.047 2013*isochrone 10min SLMB 0.140 *** -0.039 0.145 *** -0.039 0.156 *** -0.039 0.159 *** -0.039 2014*isochrone 10min SLMB 0.085 ** -0.038 0.090 ** -0.038 0.101 *** -0.038 0.104 *** -0.038 2015*isochrone 10min SLMB 0.159 *** -0.039 0.164 *** -0.039 0.173 *** -0.039 0.177 *** -0.039 2016*isochrone 10min SLMB 0.120 *** -0.037 0.127 *** -0.037 0.134 *** -0.037 0.141 *** -0.037 2017*isochrone 10min SLMB 0.138 *** -0.038 0.145 *** -0.038 0.152 *** -0.038 0.159 *** -0.038 2018*isochrone 10min SLMB 0.187 *** -0.037 0.194 *** -0.037 0.200 *** -0.037 0.206 *** -0.037 2019*isochrone 10min SLMB 0.169 *** -0.037 0.177 *** -0.037 0.182 *** -0.037 0.189 *** -0.037 2020*isochrone 10min SLMB 0.162 *** -0.037 0.169 *** -0.037 0.175 *** -0.037 0.181 *** -0.037 2021*isochrone 10min SLMB 0.167 *** -0.036 0.175 *** -0.036 0.179 *** -0.035 0.186 *** -0.035 2022*isochrone 10min SLMB 0.172 *** -0.035 0.180 *** -0.035 0.185 *** -0.035 0.192 *** -0.035 2023*isochrone 10min SLMB 0.173 *** -0.036 0.181 *** -0.036 0.185 *** -0.036 0.193 *** -0.036 (Table continues on next page) ===== PAGE 35 (score 94, numeric-paren 68, table-words 5, var-words 2) ===== 157 Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics Base Model Model 2 Urban renewal partial plans Model 3 BRT buffer 500 mts Model 4 Urban renewal partial plans & BRT buffer 500 mts Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Interaction isochrone 15min + year 2006*isochrone 15min SLMB 0.084 ** -0.035 0.088 ** -0.035 0.095 *** -0.035 0.098 *** -0.035 2007*isochrone 15min SLMB -0.067 -0.051 -0.062 -0.051 -0.056 -0.051 -0.052 -0.051 2008*isochrone 15min SLMB 0.074 ** -0.032 0.079 ** -0.032 0.084 *** -0.032 0.089 *** -0.032 2009*isochrone 15min SLMB 0.149 *** -0.029 0.154 *** -0.029 0.161 *** -0.029 0.166 *** -0.030 2010*isochrone 15min SLMB 0.071 ** -0.035 0.076 ** -0.035 0.084 ** -0.035 0.087 ** -0.035 2011*isochrone 15min SLMB 0.167 *** -0.026 0.173 *** -0.026 0.183 *** -0.026 0.188 *** -0.026 2012*isochrone 15min SLMB 0.219 *** -0.026 0.224 *** -0.026 0.233 *** -0.026 0.237 *** -0.026 2013*isochrone 15min SLMB 0.166 *** -0.026 0.171 *** -0.026 0.180 *** -0.026 0.184 *** -0.027 2014*isochrone 15min SLMB 0.136 *** -0.026 0.142 *** -0.026 0.151 *** -0.026 0.156 *** -0.026 2015*isochrone 15min SLMB 0.123 *** -0.030 0.129 *** -0.030 0.139 *** -0.030 0.144 *** -0.030 2016*isochrone 15min SLMB 0.168 *** -0.026 0.175 *** -0.026 0.182 *** -0.026 0.188 *** -0.026 2017*isochrone 15min SLMB 0.181 *** -0.026 0.188 *** -0.026 0.196 *** -0.026 0.201 *** -0.026 2018*isochrone 15min SLMB 0.178 *** -0.026 0.184 *** -0.026 0.191 *** -0.026 0.196 *** -0.026 2019*isochrone 15min SLMB 0.168 *** -0.026 0.175 *** -0.026 0.181 *** -0.026 0.187 *** -0.026 2020*isochrone 15min SLMB 0.164 *** -0.026 0.171 *** -0.026 0.177 *** -0.026 0.182 *** -0.026 2021*isochrone 15min SLMB 0.131 *** -0.026 0.137 *** -0.026 0.144 *** -0.026 0.149 *** -0.026 2022*isochrone 15min SLMB 0.119 *** -0.026 0.125 *** -0.026 0.132 *** -0.026 0.137 *** -0.026 2023*isochrone 15min SLMB 0.124 *** -0.026 0.128 *** -0.026 0.136 *** -0.026 0.139 *** -0.026 (Table continues on next page) ===== PAGE 36 (score 60, numeric-paren 36, table-words 5, var-words 0) ===== 158 JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 Base Model Model 2 Urban renewal partial plans Model 3 BRT buffer 500 mts Model 4 Urban renewal partial plans & BRT buffer 500 mts Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Interaction isochrone 20min + year 2006*isochrone 20min SLMB -0.097 *** -0.036 -0.094 *** -0.036 -0.094 *** -0.036 -0.091 ** -0.036 2007*isochrone 20min SLMB 0.047 * -0.024 0.050 ** -0.024 0.049 ** -0.024 0.053 ** -0.024 2008*isochrone 20min SLMB -0.052 ** -0.023 -0.049 ** -0.023 -0.051 ** -0.023 -0.048 ** -0.023 2009*isochrone 20min SLMB -0.067 *** -0.020 -0.064 *** -0.020 -0.066 *** -0.020 -0.063 *** -0.020 2010*isochrone 20min SLMB 0.006 -0.020 0.011 -0.020 0.008 -0.019 0.012 -0.019 2011*isochrone 20min SLMB -0.085 *** -0.020 -0.081 *** -0.020 -0.083 *** -0.020 -0.080 *** -0.020 2012*isochrone 20min SLMB -0.047 ** -0.022 -0.043 ** -0.022 -0.046 ** -0.022 -0.042 * -0.022 2013*isochrone 20min SLMB -0.119 *** -0.022 -0.116 *** -0.022 -0.118 *** -0.022 -0.114 *** -0.022 2014*isochrone 20min SLMB -0.053 ** -0.023 -0.049 ** -0.023 -0.052 ** -0.023 -0.049 ** -0.023 2015*isochrone 20min SLMB -0.038 -0.024 -0.036 -0.024 -0.038 -0.024 -0.035 -0.024 2016*isochrone 20min SLMB -0.023 -0.024 -0.025 -0.024 -0.023 -0.024 -0.025 -0.024 2017*isochrone 20min SLMB -0.032 -0.025 -0.034 -0.024 -0.033 -0.025 -0.034 -0.024 2018*isochrone 20min SLMB -0.041 * -0.025 -0.042 * -0.024 -0.041 * -0.024 -0.042 * -0.024 2019*isochrone 20min SLMB -0.034 -0.025 -0.037 -0.024 -0.035 -0.025 -0.038 -0.024 2020*isochrone 20min SLMB -0.030 -0.025 -0.034 -0.024 -0.031 -0.024 -0.034 -0.024 2021*isochrone 20min SLMB 0.007 -0.024 0.004 -0.024 0.005 -0.024 0.003 -0.024 2022*isochrone 20min SLMB -0.014 -0.024 -0.016 -0.024 -0.015 -0.024 -0.017 -0.024 2023*isochrone 20min SLMB -0.013 -0.025 -0.015 -0.024 -0.015 -0.025 -0.017 -0.024 (Table continues on next page) ===== PAGE 37 (score 88, numeric-paren 56, table-words 5, var-words 10) ===== 159 Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics Base Model Model 2 Urban renewal partial plans Model 3 BRT buffer 500 mts Model 4 Urban renewal partial plans & BRT buffer 500 mts Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Bedrooms 1 0.824 *** -0.007 0.824 *** -0.007 0.823 *** -0.007 0.823 *** -0.007 2 0.555 *** -0.006 0.556 *** -0.006 0.554 *** -0.006 0.554 *** -0.006 3 0.333 *** -0.006 0.334 *** -0.006 0.333 *** -0.006 0.333 *** -0.006 Bathrooms 0.185 *** -0.002 0.184 *** -0.002 0.186 *** -0.002 0.185 *** -0.002 Housing type Market housing (reference) Micro-apartments 0.564 *** -0.010 0.563 *** -0.010 0.556 *** -0.010 0.555 *** -0.010 Affordable housing -0.196 *** -0.005 -0.197 *** -0.005 -0.193 *** -0.005 -0.194 *** -0.005 Socioeconomic Level (1 reference) 2 -0.842 *** -0.029 -0.845 *** -0.029 -0.840 *** -0.029 -0.843 *** -0.029 3 -0.372 *** -0.029 -0.375 *** -0.029 -0.373 *** -0.029 -0.376 *** -0.029 4 -0.210 *** -0.029 -0.215 *** -0.029 -0.213 *** -0.029 -0.217 *** -0.029 5 -0.100 *** -0.029 -0.102 *** -0.029 -0.107 *** -0.029 -0.108 *** -0.029 6 -0.005 -0.029 -0.006 -0.029 -0.004 -0.029 -0.005 -0.029 Neighborhood attributes Log. Population density -0.007 *** 0.000 -0.006 *** 0.000 -0.007 *** 0.000 -0.006 *** 0.000 Log. Distance to nearest park 0.013 *** -0.001 0.013 *** -0.001 0.013 *** -0.001 0.013 *** -0.001 Log. Distance to nearest equipment -0.010 *** -0.001 -0.010 *** -0.001 -0.010 *** -0.001 -0.010 *** -0.001 Roads Index -0.020 *** -0.002 -0.018 *** -0.002 -0.021 *** -0.002 -0.020 *** -0.002 (Table continues on next page) ===== PAGE 38 (score 55, numeric-paren 34, table-words 5, var-words 4) ===== 160 JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND LAND USE 18.1 Base Model Model 2 Urban renewal partial plans Model 3 BRT buffer 500 mts Model 4 Urban renewal partial plans & BRT buffer 500 mts Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Dependent variable: Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Ln. Price per square meter Location Log. Distance to CBD.72 -0.111 *** -0.004 -0.115 *** -0.004 -0.125 *** -0.004 -0.128 *** -0.004 Log. Distance to nearest activity center -0.051 *** -0.002 -0.047 *** -0.003 -0.044 *** -0.003 -0.039 *** -0.003 Log. Distance to L2MB 0.064 *** -0.003 0.067 *** -0.003 0.072 *** -0.003 0.074 *** -0.003 Crime Log. Homicides -0.021 *** -0.002 -0.023 *** -0.002 -0.023 *** -0.002 -0.024 *** -0.002 Log. Thefts -0.021 *** -0.004 -0.018 *** -0.004 -0.015 *** -0.004 -0.012 *** -0.004 BRT Buffer 500mts built trunk 0.020 *** -0.002 0.019 *** -0.002 Buffer 500mts trunk under construction -0.022 *** -0.003 -0.020 *** -0.003 Buffer 500mts Carrera Séptima Corridor -0.019 *** -0.003 -0.018 *** -0.003 Small Area Plans Urban Renewal 0.079 *** -0.010 0.076 *** -0.010 Development 0.177 *** -0.012 0.172 *** -0.012 Constant 14.607 *** -0.046 14.567 *** -0.046 14.562 *** -0.047 14.523 *** -0.047 Observations 278,393 278,393 278,393 278,393 R – Squared 0.473 0.474 0.474 0.474 Robust standard errors in parentheses ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1 ===== PAGE 39 (score 7, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 2) ===== 161 Estimation of the anticipation effects of the metro project on real estate dynamics Base Model Model 2 (control with partial plans Model 3 (control with BRT buffer 500mts) Model 4 (control with partial plans and BRT buffer 500mts) Figure 4. Effects of the L2MB on real estate development prices per square meter in Bogotá by Isochrone (2006-2023) Sources: Analysis on (STATA, 2024) -0.30 -0.25 -0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Coeff. 5min Coeff. 10min Coeff. 15min Coeff. 20min Creation Metro Agency CONPES 4104 and 4109 Contract 136 FDN Starting bidding process -0.30 -0.25 -0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Coeff. 5min Coeff. 10min Coeff. 15min Coeff. 20min Creation Metro Agency CONPES 4104 and 4109 Contract 136 FDN Starting bidding process -0.30 -0.25 -0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Coeff. 5min Coeff. 10min Coeff. 15min Coeff. 20min Creation Metro Agency CONPES 4104 and 4109 Contract 136 FDN Starting bidding process -0.30 -0.25 -0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Coeff. 5min Coeff. 10min Coeff. 15min Coeff. 20min Creation Metro Agency CONPES 4104 and 4109 Contract 136 FDN Starting bidding process