# RECORD 4ee3c7717db58b1ec87b34f06f913235e6cbae72
# TITLE: Sea level rise risk interactions with coastal property values: a case study of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i
# YEAR: 2023.0  VENUE: Climatic Change  DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03602-4
# AUTHORS: N. Tarui; Seth Urbanski; Q. Lam; Makena Coffman; C. Newfield
# PAGES: 21  CANDIDATE TABLE PAGES (1-based): []
# ABSTRACT: Climate change-induced sea level rise (SLR) will affect a range of coastal assets and prompt difficult decisions about coastal land use across the world. Several recent studies find that current and projected SLR is associated with relatively lower property values. We contribute to this growing body of research with a case study of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i, which is famed for its beaches as well as valuable coastal real estate. We leverage a dataset that unpacks multiple types of SLR exposure and coastal parcel attributes. We apply property transaction data for the island of O‘ahu through 2019 to investigate the effect of current and expected SLR exposure on residential property prices. We find that exposed properties have already experienced declines in transaction prices, at 9 to 14%, attributed to expectations of exposure to chronic inundation (as opposed to seasonal flooding). The price declines are mainly for multi-dwelling homes as opposed to single family homes. The market response of residential properties to SLR has important implications for coastal management strategies, in particular the viability and timing of programs for retreat.


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Vol.:(0123456789)
Climatic Change (2023) 176:130
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03602-4
1 3
Sea level rise risk interactions with coastal property values: 
a case study of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i
Nori Tarui1,2   · Seth Urbanski3 · Quang Loc Lam4 · Makena Coffman1,5 · 
Conrad Newfield5,6
Received: 17 August 2022 / Accepted: 17 August 2023 / Published online: 14 September 2023 
© The Author(s) 2023
Abstract
Climate change-induced sea level rise (SLR) will affect a range of coastal assets and 
prompt difficult decisions about coastal land use across the world. Several recent studies 
find that current and projected SLR is associated with relatively lower property values. We 
contribute to this growing body of research with a case study of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i, which 
is famed for its beaches as well as valuable coastal real estate. We leverage a dataset that 
unpacks multiple types of SLR exposure and coastal parcel attributes. We apply property 
transaction data for the island of O‘ahu through 2019 to investigate the effect of current 
and expected SLR exposure on residential property prices. We find that exposed properties 
have already experienced declines in transaction prices, at 9 to 14%, attributed to expec-
tations of exposure to chronic inundation (as opposed to seasonal flooding). The price 
declines are mainly for multi-dwelling homes as opposed to single family homes. The mar-
ket response of residential properties to SLR has important implications for coastal man-
agement strategies, in particular the viability and timing of programs for retreat.
Keywords  Sea level rise · Hedonic model · Coastal management · Climate change 
adaptation
 *	 Nori Tarui 
	
nori@hawaii.edu
1	
University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO), University of Hawaiʻi 
at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA
2	
Department of Economics, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA
3	
Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, Salem, MA, USA
4	
Shidler College of Business, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA
5	
Institute for Sustainability and Resilience, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA
6	
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA