# RECORD 58a9ab2513035056fdc6d56cafc04ae9d61a0955 # TITLE: Willing to pay more for high-quality schools? # YEAR: 2018.0 VENUE: nan DOI: 10.14246/irspsd.6.1_45 # AUTHORS: Lin-Chuan Yang; Bo Wang; Yunyi Zhang; Zi-Wei Ye; Yu-Zhuo Wang; Peng-Fei Li # PAGES: 18 CANDIDATE TABLE PAGES (1-based): [9, 10, 12] # ABSTRACT: : Principally, the enrolment of elementary school in China is solely based on residential location. Due to the scarcity of prestigious schools, the household registration (or hukou in Chinese) and the territorial-based school admission policy, a feasible approach for parents to provide the children with good education is to purchase the house in the attendance zone of a high-quality school (or xuequfang in Chinese). The supply-demand imbalance gives rise to the xuequfang phenomenon (much higher prices of xuequfang relative to non xuequfang) . Based on 1250 housing samples in 286 multi- or high-storey residential districts, this paper firstly develops two basic and four Box-Cox transformed hedonic price models to estimate the effect of high-quality schools on residential property prices. The consistency of six models greatly enhances the credibility of this study. Moreover, complementary, the propensity score matching technique is used to estimate the treatment effect. The two methods consistently suggest that residential property values are affected by top-tier schools. They reveal that xuequfang exhibit values that are between 9.3% and 12.1% higher than non- xuequfang , ceteris paribus . The negative influences of the xuequfang phenomenon and several countermeasures (gradually reforming household registration system , optimizing resource distribution to balance the quality of education, highlighting family education and children’s all-round development) are discussed. ===== PAGE 1 (score 5, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 5) ===== 45 International review for spatial planning and sustainable development, Vol.6 No.1 (2018), 45-62 ISSN: 2187-3666 (online) DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.14246/irspsd.6.1_45 Copyright@SPSD Press from 2010, SPSD Press, Kanazawa Willing to pay more for high-quality schools? A hedonic pricing and propensity score matching approach Linchuan Yang¹, Bo Wang2*, Yunyi Zhang3, Ziwei Ye4, Yuzhuo Wang5, Pengfei Li6 1 Faculty of Architecture, the University of Hong Kong 2 Department of Geography, the University of Hong Kong 3 Shanghai Digital Intelligence System Technology Co.Ltd 4 Taubman College of Architecture and Urban Planning, University of Michigan 5 China Academy of Urban Planning and Design 6 School of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Xiamen University, Xiamen * Corresponding Author, Email: wangbo.nju@gmail.com Received: June 11, 2016; Accepted: June 23, 2017 Keywords: Box-Cox transformation; Hedonic price model, School attendance zone, Property price, Propensity score matching, Xuequfang Abstract: Principally, the enrolment of elementary school in China is solely based on residential location. Due to the scarcity of prestigious schools, the household registration (or hukou in Chinese) and the territorial-based school admission policy, a feasible approach for parents to provide the children with good education is to purchase the house in the attendance zone of a high-quality school (or xuequfang in Chinese). The supply-demand imbalance gives rise to the xuequfang phenomenon (much higher prices of xuequfang relative to non- xuequfang). Based on 1250 housing samples in 286 multi- or high-storey residential districts, this paper firstly develops two basic and four Box-Cox transformed hedonic price models to estimate the effect of high-quality schools on residential property prices. The consistency of six models greatly enhances the credibility of this study. Moreover, complementary, the propensity score matching technique is used to estimate the treatment effect. The two methods consistently suggest that residential property values are affected by top-tier schools. They reveal that xuequfang exhibit values that are between 9.3% and 12.1% higher than non-xuequfang, ceteris paribus. The negative influences of the xuequfang phenomenon and several countermeasures (gradually reforming household registration system, optimizing resource distribution to balance the quality of education, highlighting family education and children’s all-round development) are discussed. 1. INTRODUCTION Education, work and retirement, are three stages of our life. Education is the foundation of a nation and is closely related to the overall quality of citizens as well as the long-term development of a nation. The importance of education to individuals and a state has been universally recognized. “Residential property is a multidimensional commodity, characterized by durability and structural inflexibility as well as spatial fixity” ((So, Tse, & Ganesan, 1997), p.40). It is distinguished by a number of characteristics ===== PAGE 9 (score 19, numeric-paren 0, table-words 2, var-words 13) ===== Yang et al. 53 Until 2015, there were eight provincial-level demonstration elementary schools in Xiamen Island (Fig.1). They are Yanwu Elementary School, Minli Elementary School, Experimental Elementary School, Second Experimental Elementary School, Datong Elementary School, Affiliated elementary school of Foreign Language School, Bindong Elementary School and Binlang Elementary School. It is noteworthy that all of them are situated in the west of Siming District, which reveals the apparent spatial variations and imbalance. 3.3 Variables Table 1 shows the definitions and descriptive statistics of twelve independent variables. Except for School, all other eleven independent variables are theoretically important variables that need to be statistically controlled for by being included in our regression models. It should be noted that a variable widely used in the western literature, number of bedrooms, was not included in our regression models, in the interest of model parsimony, because its effect would overlap with floor area, resulting in the presence of multi-collinearity (So, Tse, & Ganesan, 1997). Moreover, job accessibility is not introduced due to the unavailability of data. Table 1. Variable Definitions and Descriptive Statistics Variable Description Expected sign1 Mean SD Area Gross floor area (m2) + 105.69 43.02 Age 2015 minus the year of occupation permit (number of years) - 12.13 4.81 Local environment Environment quality of residential complexes the property, rated on a 5-point Likert item from “very bad” (1) to “very good” (5) + 3.08 0.93 School Dummy variable, 1 if the property is xuequfang, 0 otherwise + 0.13 0.33 Kindergarten Dummy variable, 1 if there are at least one kindergarten within 500 meters, 0 otherwise + 0.83 0.37 Middle school Dummy variable, 1 if there are at least one middle school within 1000 meters, 0 otherwise + 0.82 0.38 Xiamen University Dummy variable, 1 if Xiamen University is within 1000 meters, 0 otherwise + 0.02 0.13 BRT Dummy variable, 1 if there are at least one BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) station within 800 meters, 0 otherwise + 0.23 0.42 Distance to hospital Euclidean distance to the nearest Class 2A or 3A hospital (km) ? 0.81 0.77 Distance to cultural/sports center Euclidean distance to the nearest cultural/sports center (km) - 1.11 0.66 Distance to city center Euclidean distance to Zhongshan Road, the city center of Xiamen Island (km) - 6.84 2.57 Distance to lake Euclidean distance to the nearest lake (km) - 1.08 0.68 Note: a + and − represent increasing and decreasing impacts on housing prices respectively; ? indicates a priori undetermined sign. ===== PAGE 10 (score 30, numeric-paren 1, table-words 8, var-words 7) ===== 54 IRSPSD International, Vol.6 No.1 (2018), 45-62 4. RESULTS 4.1 Initial hedonic price regression EVIEWS 9 is used to build a semi-log and a double-log model using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. The dependent variable is modified by a natural log transformation in both models whereas independent variables are modified by a natural log transformation only in the double-log model. We do not transform five dummy variables as they are not definitely greater than 0. Table 2 provides the modeling results. The goodness-of-fit values of both models (0.801, 0.850) are higher than that based on the same data source in Yang et al. (2015) (0.789). This indicates that the two models were able to predict higher proportions of variability in their outcomes compared to the model in Yang et al. (2015). Moreover, with a higher model fit, the double-log model outperforms the semi-log model, which indicates that it captures more variations in housing prices. All but two variables are significant at the 5% level in both models. Kindergarten and Middle school are not significant at the 5% level, which implies that they are not associated with housing prices. Table 2. Regression results of semi-log and double-log models Variable Semi-log model Double-log model coefficient t-value coefficient t-value Constant 4.579a 88.67 1.091a 13.89 Area 0.010a 59.16 1.008a 70.70 Age -0.011a -7.65 -0.153a -11.26 Local environment 0.068a 8.36 0.177a 7.94 School 0.089a 4.00 0.108a 5.45 Kindergarten 0.009c 0.47 -0.011c -0.68 Middle school -0.001c -0.06 0.032c 1.91 Xiamen University 0.206a 3.45 0.144a 3.04 BRT 0.077a 4.72 0.100a 6.85 Distance to hospital 0.047a 4.41 0.018b 2.13 Distance to cultural/sports center -0.057a -5.04 -0.049a -5.25 Distance to city center -0.021a -6.04 -0.077a -6.36 Distance to lake -0.072a -6.06 -0.051a -5.95 Performance statistics Adjusted R2 0.801 0.850 Log-likelihood 66.00 238.69 AIC -0.09 -0.37 Note: a significant at the 1% level. b significant at the 5% level. c not significant at the 5% level. With no exception, the signs of all variables’ coefficients agree with a priori expectation. The coefficients associated with Area, Local environment, School, Xiamen University, BRT are positive. This implies that properties with larger size, having better local environment and BRT access, within attendance zone of a high-quality school and closer to Xiamen University, exhibit higher values. The coefficients of Age, Distance to cultural/sports center, Distance to city center, Distance to lake, have the ===== PAGE 11 (score 19, numeric-paren 0, table-words 4, var-words 11) ===== Yang et al. 55 hypothesized negative signs. It indicates that houses at the younger age, with better accessibility to the city center, culture/sports center and lake, are more expensive, all else being fixed. The coefficient associated with Distance to hospital is positive, which indicates that proximity to Class 2A and 3A hospitals negatively affects housing prices. This indicates the nuisance effect of being located near hospitals, which seems somewhat surprising, but consistent with the findings in Li et al. (2013) and Peng, B. et al. (2015). There are two possible explanations. Firstly, different age cohorts have differing needs and preferences of services, for example health care services (Wong et al., 2018). Normally, young adults seldom go to hospital, so they may not consider proximity to hospitals when making residential location decisions, even tend to live far away from hospitals. Notwithstanding, the elderly are in general more likely to go to hospital (Yang, 2016; Szeto et al., 2017; Wong et al., 2017) and may tend to live close to hospitals for better access due to higher visiting frequency (Li et al., 2013). In addition, it is crowded around high- level comprehensive hospitals generally. There are a huge number of people and vehicles within these regions, generating noises and air pollution, thereby reducing nearby residents’ quality of life (Peng, B. et al., 2015). The coefficients of the double-log regression function correspond to average attribute elasticities. Gross floor area is found to be the dominating elemental attribute, which has the greatest influence on housing prices as hypothesized. In addition, being located in the attendant zone of a high- quality school has nearly the same positive impact on housing prices as access to BRT (0.108 vs 0.100). Furthermore, among four location variables, Distance to city center exhibits the largest impact on housing prices, which is consistent with the bid-rent theory proposed by Alonso (1964). 4.2 Box-Cox transformation For further checking the robustness of variables, four Box-Cox functions are estimated. All functional forms represent relatively simple applications of the Box-Cox transformation: the simple left-hand-side Box-Cox model; the simple right-hand-side Box-Cox model; the simple both-side Box-Cox model; the separate both-side Box-Cox model. It should be noted that we do not transform five dummy independent variables as they are not definitely positive. Table 3 shows the results and reveals that the most flexible form, the separate both-side Box-Cox model, outperforms other three Box-Cox models. It has the lowest AIC (Akaike information criterion) value and the greatest adjusted R2 and Log-likelihood. The levels of statistical significance of all twelve independent variables are consistent in all six model specifications (two pre-specified and four Box-Cox transformed models). Kindergarten and Middle school are not associated with housing prices while other variables significantly affect housing prices (significant at the 5% level). This implies that our hedonic price models (both pre-specified and Box-Cox transformed) can explain price variations well and the variables included do affect housing prices. In addition, the signs of all coefficients are in line with expected. Table 3. Results of four Box-Cox transformed functional forms Variables Simple LHS Box-Cox model: Simple RHS Box-Cox model: Simple both- side Box-Cox model: Separate both- side Box-Cox model: ===== PAGE 12 (score 85, numeric-paren 52, table-words 7, var-words 7) ===== 56 IRSPSD International, Vol.6 No.1 (2018), 45-62 coefficient (t- value) coefficient (t- value) coefficient (t- value) coefficient (t- value) Constant 9.784 (34.54)a 58.907 (5.20)a 1.137 (12.87)a 1.618 (19.41)a Area 0.055 (63.53)a 1.429 (59.11)a 1.035 (70.56)a 0.833 (70.52)a Age -0.074 (-9.30)a -3.044 (- 10.17)a -0.169 (- 11.32)a -0.151 (- 11.20)a Local environment 0.434 (9.36)a 16.629 (8.05)a 0.203 (8.00)a 0.195 (8.01)a School 0.616 (5.14)a 36.359 (5.90)a 0.128 (5.48)c 0.129 (5.46)c Kindergarten -0.005 (-0.05)c -4.621 (-0.88)c -0.013 (-0.70)c -0.013 (-0.67)c Middle school 0.029a (0.28)c 4.011 (0.76)c 0.036 (1.84)a 0.033 (1.70)a Xiamen University 0.990 (3.09)b 42.604 (2.53)b 0.170 (3.04)a 0.172 (3.03)a BRT 0.429 (4.93)a 19.596 (4.38)a 0.117 (6.81)a 0.116 (6.72)a Distance to hospital 0.252 (4.47)a 11.195 (4.06)a 0.022 (2.16)b 0.023 (2.21)b Distance to cultural/sports center -0.294 (-4.71)a -12.988 (- 4.16)a -0.059 (-5.31)a -0.062 (-5.39)a Distance to city center -0.134 (-7.26)a -5.477 (-7.12)a -0.088 (-6.37)a -0.084 (-6.28)a Distance to lake -0.345 (-5.42)a -10.734 (- 3.32)a -0.061 (-5.99)a -0.063 (-5.99)a Left-hand side parameter 0.317 (11.41)a - - 0.032 (1.02)c Right-hand side parameter - 1.128 (19.03)a - 0.080 (1.45)c Both-hand side parameter - - 0.030 (0.95)c - Performance statistics· Adjusted R2 0.826 0.806 0.851 0.851 Log-likelihood -1999.85 -6864.68 39.83 26.60 AIC 3.26 11.15 -0.04 -0.02 Note: a significant at the 1% level. b significant at the 5% level. c not significant at the 5% level. 4.3 Propensity score matching The “MatchIt” package in R constructs (Ho et al., 2011), is used for treatment effects estimation. The model employed to estimate propensity score, defined as the probability of receiving treatment, conditional on the covariates, is a binary logistic regression model. The explanatory variables used for logistics regression are the same as those used for the hedonic price function estimates. There are 158 treatment and 1092 control observations in our data set. The matching method we use is “optimal” matching, which seeks out the matched observations with the smallest total absolute distance within matched units. This method (i.e., “optimal” matching) is, in nature, strikingly different from “greedy” matching, which starts with some treated units and matches the closest control unit that has not yet been matched, without trying to minimize a global distance measure, so it efficiently avoids a problem of “greedy” matching, variant to the order in which units are matched (Ho et al., 2007). After matching, we compare the difference between the means for each explanatory variable in full samples and matched samples and find that matching does greatly enhance the balance of covariates. The estimation of the treatment effect reveals that the residential properties being located within high-quality school attendance zones (xuequfang) are 12.1% higher than the properties located outside of these areas (non-xuequfang), all else keeping fixed. ===== PAGE 13 (score 4, numeric-paren 0, table-words 1, var-words 2) ===== Yang et al. 57 4.4 High-quality school value premiums The following interpretation of the value premiums offered by high- quality schools is based on the semi- and double-log hedonic price models developed and propensity score matching. The coefficient of School in the semi- and double-log model is 0.089 and 0.108, respectively. This indicates that residential properties being located within high-quality school attendance zones (xuequfang) exhibit values that are between 9.3% (=e0.089- 1) and 11.4% (=e0.108-1) higher than the properties located outside of these areas (non-xuequfang), ceteris paribus. The value premium estimation provided by propensity score matching (12.1%) is very consistent with the hedonic price regression results. The magnitude of the price premium offered by high-quality school of Xiamen Island is a little higher than that estimated in Beijing (8.1%) (Hu, Zheng, & Wang, 2014) and Shanghai (8.7%, 9.7%) (Shi & Wang, 2014; Peng, B. et al., 2015), but lower than that in Tianjin (l4.7%) (Wang, Z., Mei, & Wang, 2014) and Hong Kong (39.4%, 27.3%) (Jayantha & Lam, 2015). 5. DISCUSSIONS According to the pedagogy theory, four factors - genetics, environment, school and subjective initiative - can affect the physical and mental development of people. Among them, only environment and school are space-relevant. The former involves loads of factors, with family environment accounting for a major proportion, while school is a very important factor which parents can do something for the physical and mental development of their children. The demarcation of school attendance zones is based on many factors such as school distribution, population distribution and natural boundary. It is, originally, to ensure the accessibility and security of school-age children. However, since elementary schools show exceptional heterogeneity (obvious disparities, tremendous diversity) in some aspects such as test performance and entering-school rate, parents’ expectation would deviate from the reality in terms of school choices. That is, assuming that a child with local hukou registered in the attendance zone of school A wants to attend school B, it is very difficult, if not impossible, according to strict policy of entrance from attendance zones alone, however. So, in most cases, parents need to buy a residence in the attendance zone of school B. As a result, the imbalance of inadequate supply and growing demand leads to the higher prices of xuequfang. For example, in Nanjing, the supply-demand ratio of xuequfang reaches 10 (Chen & Tang, 2009). Obviously, the advent of the xuequfang phenomenon is in stark contrast to original goals of school attendance zone demarcation. According to Chen and Tang (2009), there are a series of negative effects of the xuequfang phenomenon: (1) unfair educational resource allocation. Coupled with the advancement of the nation, education is no longer regarded as a privilege. Good educational resources are expected to be unfairly allocated and driven by the market mechanism. The introduction of territorial-based school admission policy which links educational resources with residential properties, distorts the market. As a result, the better the nearby educational resources are, the higher value the housing exhibits. This turns out that the rich can still obtain high-quality educational