# RECORD 69288e963b8055b19e0fd077000b14eb34270ae1 # TITLE: THE EFFECTS OF TRANSACTION HOTSPOTS AND FLIPPING HOTSPOTS ON HOUSING PRICES # YEAR: 2024.0 VENUE: International Journal of Strategic Property Management DOI: 10.3846/ijspm.2024.20899 # AUTHORS: Bor-Ming Hsieh; Chih-Yuan Yang # PAGES: 15 CANDIDATE TABLE PAGES (1-based): [8, 9, 10, 13, 14, 15] # ABSTRACT: In contrast to much of the literature that focuses on the issue of spatial dependence in housing price research, this study addresses the spatial aggregation of housing transactions and analyzes the effects of transaction hotspots and short-term flipping hotspots on housing prices by using real housing transaction data in Taipei City, Taiwan. The empirical results show that after controlling for the effects of spatial dependence and individual housing attributes, the impact of transaction hotspot areas on housing prices is significantly negative, while the impact of flipping hotspot areas on housing prices is significantly positive. The results verify that the key to driving up housing prices lies in flipping activities. Furthermore, the results of the spatial quantile regression model show that low-priced residential properties are more sensitive to the spatial concentration of housing transactions and flipping transactions in the housing market. Our results have implications for the government’s policy intending to control hot trade volumes to cool skyrocketing housing prices in a booming housing market. It is suggested that the government should pay attention to restraining short-term flipping activities in the housing market rather than setting constrains on housing transactions. ===== PAGE 1 (score 11, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 11) ===== This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Vilnius Gediminas Technical University ISSN: 1648-715X / eISSN: 1648-9179 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF STRATEGIC PROPERTY MANAGEMENT INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF STRATEGIC PROPERTY MANAGEMENT 2024 Volume 28 Issue 1 Pages 1–15 https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2024.20899 THE EFFECTS OF TRANSACTION HOTSPOTS AND FLIPPING HOTSPOTS ON HOUSING PRICES Bor-Ming HSIEH1, Chih-Yuan YANG2,* 1 Department of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian University, Tainan, Taiwan 2 Department of Civic Education and Leadership, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan Article History: Abstract. In contrast to much of the literature that focuses on the issue of spatial dependence in housing price research, this study addresses the spatial aggregation of housing transactions and analyzes the effects of transaction hotspots and short-term flipping hotspots on housing prices by using real housing transac- tion data in Taipei City, Taiwan. The empirical results show that after controlling for the effects of spatial dependence and individual housing attributes, the impact of transaction hotspot areas on housing prices is significantly negative, while the impact of flipping hotspot areas on housing prices is significantly positive. The results verify that the key to driving up housing prices lies in flipping activities. Furthermore, the results of the spatial quantile regression model show that low-priced residential properties are more sensitive to the spatial concentration of housing transactions and flipping transactions in the housing market. Our results have implications for the government’s policy intending to control hot trade volumes to cool skyrocketing housing prices in a booming housing market. It is suggested that the government should pay attention to restraining short-term flipping activities in the housing market rather than setting constrains on housing transactions. ■received 31 August 2023 ■accepted 26 December 2023 Keywords: housing prices, flipping, spatial aggregation, housing volume, hotspot analysis. * Corresponding author. E-mail: cyy@ntnu.edu.tw 1. Introduction Housing transactions and housing prices have usually been the most important issues in housing market studies. Previous studies have indicated that housing transactions and housing prices interact (Rothenberg et al., 1991). In many cases, housing transactions can serve as an indicator of whether the housing market is hot or not. A traditional expectation based on this viewpoint suggests that the vol- ume of housing transactions predicts housing prices; for example, a rapid increase in housing transactions induces a rise in housing prices (Hua et al., 2001; Yiu et al., 2009). A boom in housing transactions and housing prices in an area often indicates that the housing market is prospering; hence, more house buyers are attracted, including owner- occupiers and investors, and as a result, this drives hous- ing prices up. However, it is difficult to distinguish rigid residential demand from speculative investing demand from observing housing transactions. By analyzing the fre- quency of housing transactions in a certain period of time, it can differentiate buyers’ demand for owner-occupation or short-term speculation in the housing market (Depken et al., 2009). In the housing market, the behavior of short-term buy- ing and reselling properties with a profit can be seen as speculation or called flipping (LaCour-Little & Yang, 2023). Bayer et al. (2020) pointed out that investors who repeat- edly buy and resell properties within two years are seen as flippers. Most flippers choose the location of property and time of investment and resell it when the housing price rises promptly (Yilmaz, 2014). Previous studies have indicated that short-term flipping in the housing market causes a boom in housing transactions and thus rapidly driving housing prices up, which is not conducive to the sound development of the housing market (Leung & Tse, 2017; Li et al., 2023). However, fewer studies have con- cerned the spatial content of housing flipping and exam- ined its impact on housing prices. Regarding the spatial concept of housing, adjoining housing units share similar environmental conditions, such as neighborhoods, parks, and open space. Hous- ing prices of adjoining housing units are affected by each other, which is explained as the spatial dependence of house prices (Basu & Thibodeau, 1998; Case et al., 2004). In addition to the spatial dependence of housing prices, the concentration of traded residential properties also has spatial impacts (ripple effects) on the prices of ad- jacent properties. As stated earlier, previous studies have indicated that a rapid increase in housing transactions tends to drive up housing prices. In this sense, a boom in ===== PAGE 8 (score 54, numeric-paren 29, table-words 5, var-words 7) ===== 8 B.-M. Hsieh, C.-Y. Yang. The effects of transaction hotspots and flipping hotspots on housing prices accounting for 50.3% of the total repeated-sale samples.9 This figure illustrates the gravity of the issue of flipping in Taipei’s housing market. By using a hot spot analysis approach to calculate the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic for each flipping sample in 50 × 50 m grid areas in the city, the hot- spot areas of housing flipping are identified as red areas in Figure 2. As shown in Figure 2, the red areas account for ap- proximately 50% of areas with repeated sale samples and account for 1% of total housing transaction areas in the city, representing the most significant and high concentra- tion of flipping transactions in the housing market over the past decade. The transaction hotspot areas and flip- ping hotspot areas do not exactly overlap. Compared to the hotspot areas of housing transactions (the blue ar- eas), the hotspot areas of housing flipping are more likely to be concentrated in western areas of the city, such as Zhongshan District, Datong District, Zhongzeng District, and Wanhua District, where they are old city center areas in Taipei City. Furthermore, most flipping hotspot areas are located in relatively lower-priced areas. This implies that lower-priced properties are more likely to be flipped than high-priced properties in Taipei City. 9 Of the 62,140 transactions in our sample, 3,302 occurred within 2 years. The proportion of 5.31% is larger than the correspond- ing ratio (3.13% = 3,133/100,076) in the paper of Li et al. (2023) which using the dataset of residential property transactions in Clark County, Nevada in the USA for the period 2003–2013. 4.2. Results of OLS model and spatial lag model Regarding the housing price model, this study employs the spatial lag model to improve the spatial dependence of housing prices.10 The results of the OLS and the spa- tial autoregression models are shown in Table 2. The full model results are shown in the Appendix. The results show that there is a significant and positive coefficient of spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that spatial autocorrelations exist significantly among housing prices. Thus, using the spatial lag regression can alleviate the problem of spatial dependence among housing prices and therefore improve the model goodness-of-fit. As shown in Table 2, the good- ness-of-fit of the spatial lag model is better than that of the OLS model, while the R-square of the spatial lag model is slightly higher than that of the OLS model.11 In both models, the directions and coefficients of the controlling variables, such as district dummy variables, are as expected and consistent with prior studies. An increase of one square meter in floor area increases housing prices by 0.8%, and an increase of one bathroom rises housing prices by approximately 6%. In contrast, an increase of one 10 The Moran’s I for housing transaction prices is 0.1741, with a z-score of 859.99, indicating a significant positive spatial cor- relation among housing transaction prices. 11 As expected, the results show the housing prices in all 11 dis- tricts are significantly higher than in the Wanhua District. In ad- dition, housing prices decreased compared to 2021, indicating a steady increase of housing prices over the past decade. Table 2. Results of OLS model and spatial autoregression models Model OLS model Spatial lag model Spatial error model Variable Coeff. t value Coeff. z-statistic Coeff. z-statistic Constant 16.149 1394.93*** 16.184 1426.16*** 16.224 1350.06*** Area 0.008 315.66*** 0.008 316.60*** 0.007 179.92*** Floor –0.0004 –1.05 –0.0001 –0.37 –0.0008 –2.33** TStory –0.0003 –1.01 –0.0004 –1.33 –0.0009 –2.69*** Bathroom 0.059 24.31*** 0.060 25.31*** 0.061 25.42*** Age –0.011 –118.36*** –0.011 –121.44*** –0.011 –114.10*** Dist. MRT –0.011 –40.04*** –0.011 –39.90*** –0.011 –37.84*** Dist. CC –0.004 –32.22*** –0.003 –27.49*** –0.003 –31.16*** THA –0.102 –34.74*** –0.099 –34.56*** –0.101 –34.42*** FHA 0.014 1.08 0.022 1.70* 0.020 1.55 THA × FHA 0.042 1.68* 0.050 2.02** 0.032 1.30 Administrative districts Yes Yes Yes Trading years × quarters Yes Yes Yes Spatial autocorr. coeff. – 0.196 52.50*** 0.056 22.32*** (Pseudo) R-square 0.853 0.859 0.855 F value 6215.69*** – – AIC 14781.55 14678.08 14737.21 Note: ***, **, and * denote significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively. The number of observations is 62,140. The results of controlling dummies of the administrative district and trading year and quarter are provided in the Appendix.11 ===== PAGE 9 (score 88, numeric-paren 54, table-words 5, var-words 11) ===== International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 2024, 28(1), 1–15 9 year in dwelling age decreases housing prices by approxi- mately 1.1%. The distance to the nearest MRT station and the distance to the city center all have negative effects on housing prices, which indicates that the closer to the MRT station and to the city center, the higher the housing prices. The coefficient of THA is –0.099 and significant in the spatial lag model, indicating that housing prices in trans- action hotspot areas decrease 9.9% compared to those not in hotspot areas. This is probably because of the price comparison effect; that is, when there are many properties for sale in the market, the competitive effect for on-sale properties usually makes transaction prices down. Such re- sults are compatible with the findings of Deng et al. (2022). Properties in the areas of many transactions have more sufficient information and more competitors and thus re- duce their transaction prices. Furthermore, the coefficient of FHA in the spatial lag model is 0.022, denoting that housing prices increase up to 2.2% in hotspot areas of flipping activities. These re- sults are in line with the viewpoints of short-term flipping speculation in the housing market (Leung & Tse, 2017; LaCour-Little & Yang, 2023). House flipping increases housing prices and harms sound markets.12 The sum- marizing effect of both THA and FHA on housing prices is  –0.027 (–0.099+0.022+0.050), denoting that housing prices decrease by 2.7% in both hotspot areas of housing 12 See article titled “How Tales of ‘Flippers’ Led to a Housing Bub- ble” by Robert Shiller, at Economist’s View on May 18, 2017, available from https://economistsview.typepad.com/economists- view/2017/05/how-tales-of-flippers-led-to-a-housing-bubble.html transactions and hotspot areas of flipping activities. Since properties in the FHA drive up neighboring prices, the negative effect of the interactive THA and FHA on hous- ing prices is less than that on THA only. In short, the above results suggest that a high concentration of flipping activi- ties in the housing market, rather than a high concentra- tion of normal housing transactions, is an important driv- ing force of rising housing prices in the housing market of Taipei City. 4.3. Results of the spatial quantile regression model This subsection discusses the results of the spatial quantile regression model, which estimates the effects of transac- tion hotspot areas and flipping hotspot areas on various quantiles of housing prices with the consideration of spatial autocorrelation. The results are summarized in Table 3. The full model results are also shown in the Appendix. The trad- ing floor (Floor) and total story (TStory) have positive effects on properties in middle to high housing price levels, show- ing that the influence of being located on a high floor and high-rise buildings on housing prices increases with a rise in housing price quantile levels. The number of bathrooms (Bathroom) has a greater influence on properties at lower housing price levels than at higher price levels. Table 3. Results of the spatial quantile regression model Model Low ……………………………….. Housing prices ……………………………….. High 0.1 q 0.25 q 0.5 q 0.75 q 0.9 q Variable Coeff. t value Coeff. t value Coeff. t value Coeff. t value Coeff. t value Constant 15.916 582.66*** 16.067 991.19*** 16.155 1303.56*** 16.236 1297.69*** 16.334 1150.88*** Area 0.008 131.06*** 0.008 230.96*** 0.008 305.09*** 0.008 300.55*** 0.008 265.16*** Floor –0.002 –2.15** 0.001 1.51 0.001 3.91*** 0.002 5.064*** 0.002 3.27*** TStory –0.004 –5.40*** –0.001 –3.01*** 0.001 3.31*** 0.003 7.32*** 0.003 6.37*** Bathroom 0.069 12.16*** 0.061 17.98*** 0.055 21.54*** 0.054 20.79*** 0.049 16.63*** Age –0.012 –55.95*** –0.012 –88.20*** –0.011 –105.21*** –0.010 –100.58*** –0.010 –86.66*** Dist. MRT –0.012 –17.80*** –0.013 –33.05*** –0.011 –38.23*** –0.010 –32.26*** –0.009 –25.01*** Dist. CC –0.002 –9.48*** –0.003 –16.04*** –0.003 –26.20*** –0.004 –29.40*** –0.004 –26.04*** THA –0.122 –17.62*** –0.124 –30.11*** –0.097 –30.80*** –0.061 –19.22*** –0.038 –10.64*** FHA 0.069 2.24** 0.050 2.74*** 0.014 1.69* –0.018 –1.26 –0.024 –1.51 THA × FHA –0.023 –0.40 0.037 1.07 0.056 2.10** 0.089 3.30*** 0.045 1.45 Administrative districts Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Trading years × quarters Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Spatial autocorr. coeff. 0.163 18.14*** 0.185 34.70*** 0.200 48.77*** 0.214 51.82*** 0.217 46.49*** (Pseudo) R-square 0.577 0.606 0.641 0.671 0.693 Note: ***, **, and * denote significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively. The number of observations is 62,140. The results of controlling dummies of administrative district and trading year and quarter are provided in the Appendix. ===== PAGE 10 (score 15, numeric-paren 0, table-words 5, var-words 3) ===== 10 B.-M. Hsieh, C.-Y. Yang. The effects of transaction hotspots and flipping hotspots on housing prices The spatial quantile regression allows us to assess the effects of THA at specific quantiles of the depend- ent variable. Thus, we estimate the effects of THA in both low-priced (10th quantile) and high-priced (90th quantile) areas. The results consistently show negative and signifi- cant coefficients for THA across all quantiles, indicating that THA remains a significant negative factor not only in low-priced areas but also in high-priced areas. In Table 3, for example, in the 0.1 q column (representing the 10th percentile of Taipei City housing prices), the coefficient for THA is –0.122 (t = –17.62; p-value < 0.01). Similarly, in the 0.25  q column (representing the 25th percentile of Tai- pei City housing prices), the coefficient for THA is –0.124 (t = –30.11; p-value < 0.01). These results demonstrate that transaction hotspots are not synonymous with low-priced areas, as THA remains significantly negative in low-priced regions even after controlling for administrative districts and distance-related spatial variables. Since this study addresses the influences of transac- tion hotspots and flipping hotspots on housing prices, the coefficients of THA and FHA in different quantiles are depicted in Figure 3. It is interesting to observe that the coefficients of THA are –0.122, –0.124, –0.097, –0.061, and –0.038 at quantiles of 0.1 q, 0.25 q, 0.5 q, 0.75 q, and 0.9 q, respectively.13 That is, these transaction hotspot ar- eas have greater negative impacts on properties at lower price levels than at middle to high price levels. In other words, prices in lower-priced properties are more likely to be reduced where they are located in areas with a high concentration of housing transactions. Furthermore, the coefficients of FHA are 0.069, 0.050, 0.014,  –0.018, and  –0.024 at quantiles of 0.1  q, 0.25  q, 0.5 q, 0.75 q, and 0.9 q, respectively. This indicates that flipping activities have greater positive effects on prop- erties at lower price levels than at middle to high price levels. The lower-priced properties are more likely to be flipped and thus raise their prices in Taipei’s housing market. In addition, the coefficients in the 0.75 and 0.9 quantiles are insignificant, indicating that the influences of flipping activities are insignificant and weak in higher priced properties. The effects of properties in both THA and FHA are significant on housing prices in the 0.5 and 0.75 quantiles, respectively. The interactive effect is greater in the 0.75 quantile than in the 0.5 quantile. These results indicate that the interactive effect of THA and FHA have greater and significant influences on middle- to high- priced houses in Taipei’s housing market. Simply stated, with a rise in housing price level, the negative effects of transaction hotspots and the positive effects of flipping hotspots on housing prices decrease. Low-priced residen- tial properties are more sensitive to the spatial concentra- tion of housing transactions and flipping transactions in the housing market of Taipei City. 5. Conclusions In contrast to much of the literature that focuses on the issue of spatial dependence in housing price research, this study addresses the spatial aggregation of housing trans- actions and analyzes the effects of transaction hotspots and short-term flipping hotspots on housing prices by us- ing real housing transaction data in Taipei City, Taiwan. The empirical results show that after controlling for the effects of spatial dependence and individual housing attributes, the impact of transaction hotspot areas on housing prices is significantly negative, while the impact of flipping hot- spot areas on housing prices is significantly positive. The results verify that the key to driving up housing prices lies in flipping activities. Furthermore, the results of the spatial quantile regression model show that low-priced residential properties are more sensitive to the spatial concentration 13 As shown in Figure 3, the trend of the coefficients of THA is rising. However, the coefficients of THA are negative, so the ris- ing trend means the negative influences of transaction hotspot areas on housing prices are decreased. Figure 3. The coefficients of THA, FHA, and THA × FHA in different quantiles ===== PAGE 11 (score 9, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 8) ===== International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 2024, 28(1), 1–15 11 of housing transactions and flipping transactions in the housing market. Hot spot analysis has been widely used to analyze the spatial correlation of housing prices in the housing market, but less research has addressed the effect of “hotspot are- as” of two types of housing transactions on housing prices. This study provides another perspective to analyze the re- lationships between trade volumes and prices in housing market research. The results off two important implications for government. First, areas of hot transactions will not drive housing prices up, but hot flipping areas will. The government should not be overly concerned about wheth- er the housing market is hot or not but should pay atten- tion to short-term flipping (repeated transactions within 2 years). In addition, the areas with low-priced houses are easily influenced by spatial aggregation of trading volume. Flipping detection and support measures should focus on areas with low housing prices, where they are more sen- sitively influenced by flipping transactions. Corresponding policies such as selective credit controls should refer to transaction (flipping) hotspot areas and set the optimal applicable areas of administrative districts. Future research could explore more about the poten- tial limitations of this study. First, this paper considers the hotspot effect through quantitative aggregation. However, if there is a significant urban‒rural disparity in certain re- gions, areas with fewer residences are less likely to ex- perience the emergence of hotspots. For instance, spot A mainly comprises low-density mansions, so there are few transactions, while spot B has many high-rise build- ings and many transactions. However, the turnover rate of spot A, i.e., the ratio between the number of transac- tions relative to the number of housing units, is higher than that in spot B. It is an important issue to compare the nuanced difference between the quantity and the ra- tio concept. Fortunately, the urban characteristics of Taipei City, which has a relatively small geographical area and more balanced development, may mitigate such concerns. Second, the endogeneity of flipping activities is also an im- portant consideration. For example, in a search-theoretic model of house flipping, as proposed by Leung and Tse (2017), flipping activities are considered endogenous. The relationships among housing prices, transactions, and flip- ping may exhibit multidirectional influences. Finally, it is worth noting that the transaction and flipping hotspots may change over time. Identifying the time-varying trans- action and flipping hotspots could provide more practical implications. For future research, employing space-time permutation scan statistic methods (such as Kulldorff & Nagarwalla, 1995; Kulldorff et al., 2005) to analyze changes in clusters over time would be particularly suitable. Acknowledgements We would like to thank the Editors and three anonymous referees for providing highly constructive comments. The authors acknowledge the funding support received from the Chin-Oh Chang’s Inheritance Award, Chinese Society of Housing Studies. Special appreciation is extended to Pro- fessor Chin-Oh Chang for his valuable and insightful com- ments on this paper. Chih-Yuan Yang extends thanks to the National Science and Technology Council of Taiwan for fi- nancial support through grant (NSTC 112-2410-H-003-131). References Anacker, K. B., & Schintler, L. A. (2015). Flip that house: Visualising and analysing potential real estate property flipping transac- tions in a cold local housing market in the United States. 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Routledge. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315460055-6 ===== PAGE 13 (score 163, numeric-paren 131, table-words 1, var-words 3) ===== International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 2024, 28(1), 1–15 13 Appendix Table A1. Complete results of OLS model and spatial autoregression models Model OLS model Spatial lag model Spatial error model Variable Coeff. t value Coeff. Variable Coeff. Variable Constant 16.149 1394.93*** 16.184 1426.16*** 16.224 1350.06*** Area 0.008 315.66*** 0.008 316.60*** 0.007 179.92*** Floor –0.0004 –1.05 –0.0001 –0.37 –0.0008 –2.33** TStory –0.0003 –1.01 –0.0004 –1.33 –0.0009 –2.69*** Bathroom 0.059 24.31*** 0.060 25.31*** 0.061 25.42*** Age –0.011 –118.36*** –0.011 –121.44*** –0.011 –114.10*** Dist. MRT –0.011 –40.04*** –0.011 –39.90*** –0.011 –37.84*** Dist. CC –0.004 –32.22*** –0.003 –27.49*** –0.003 –31.16*** THA –0.102 –34.74*** –0.099 –34.56*** –0.101 –34.42*** FHA 0.014 1.08 0.022 1.70* 0.020 1.55 THA × FHA 0.042 1.68* 0.050 2.02** 0.032 1.30 Administrative districts Zhongzheng 0.250 37.19*** 0.174 25.94*** 0.232 34.38*** Datong 0.036 5.26*** 0.025 3.70*** 0.034 4.83*** Zhongshan 0.119 22.63*** 0.077 14.82*** 0.102 19.26*** Songshan 0.300 46.97*** 0.253 40.03*** 0.284 44.32*** Da’an 0.395 58.62*** 0.275 39.49*** 0.361 52.55*** Xinyi 0.287 44.97*** 0.209 32.59*** 0.265 41.20*** Shilin 0.298 45.58*** 0.235 36.03*** 0.283 43.23*** Beitou 0.149 17.49*** 0.102 12.14*** 0.144 16.93*** Neihu 0.193 35.74*** 0.133 24.65*** 0.187 34.63*** Nangan 0.251 37.74*** 0.160 23.70*** 0.249 37.47*** Wensha 0.032 5.86*** 0.016 3.06*** 0.036 6.62*** Trading years × quarters 2012Q3 –0.259 –24.86*** –0.260 –25.51*** –0.247 –23.76*** 2012Q4 –0.243 –25.68*** –0.249 –26.90*** –0.231 –24.45*** 2013Q1 –0.186 –18.83*** –0.190 –19.73*** –0.176 –17.95*** 2013Q2 –0.130 –14.11*** –0.135 –15.00*** –0.123 –13.36*** 2013Q3 –0.112 –11.56*** –0.118 –12.50*** –0.106 –11.04*** 2013Q4 –0.093 –9.87*** –0.096 –10.40*** –0.087 –9.25*** 2014Q1 –0.075 –7.49*** –0.077 –7.87*** –0.071 –7.09*** 2014Q2 –0.131 –13.41*** –0.137 –14.37*** –0.122 –12.55*** 2014Q3 –0.087 –8.60*** –0.092 –9.26*** –0.080 –7.88*** 2014Q4 –0.089 –9.10*** –0.090 –9.35*** –0.086 –8.83*** 2015Q1 –0.073 –6.71*** –0.074 –6.91*** –0.070 –6.46*** 2015Q2 –0.059 –5.68*** –0.066 –6.54*** –0.054 –5.24*** 2015Q3 –0.066 –6.16*** –0.068 –6.48*** –0.058 –5.43*** 2015Q4 –0.095 –9.33*** –0.095 –9.54*** –0.087 –8.64*** 2016Q1 –0.107 –8.92*** –0.109 –9.37*** –0.099 –8.36*** 2016Q2 –0.064 –6.42*** –0.068 –6.93*** –0.058 –5.79*** 2016Q3 –0.102 –9.38*** –0.104 –9.76*** –0.096 –8.83*** 2016Q4 –0.107 –9.75*** –0.106 –9.83*** –0.100 –9.07*** 2017Q1 –0.109 –9.48*** –0.107 –9.52*** –0.101 –8.81*** 2017Q2 –0.093 –8.47*** –0.091 –8.50*** –0.084 –7.70*** 2017Q3 –0.115 –10.39*** –0.116 –10.71*** –0.106 –9.59*** 2017Q4 –0.130 –11.95*** –0.130 –12.19*** –0.121 –11.16*** 2018Q1 –0.111 –9.63*** –0.108 –9.56*** –0.102 –8.93*** 2018Q2 –0.123 –11.44*** –0.121 –11.55*** –0.115 –10.72*** ===== PAGE 14 (score 178, numeric-paren 139, table-words 2, var-words 4) ===== 14 B.-M. Hsieh, C.-Y. Yang. The effects of transaction hotspots and flipping hotspots on housing prices Model OLS model Spatial lag model Spatial error model 2018Q3 –0.104 –9.39*** –0.103 –9.47*** –0.097 –8.79*** 2018Q4 –0.073 –6.65*** –0.075 –7.00*** –0.065 –5.98*** 2019Q1 –0.086 –7.64*** –0.090 –8.15*** –0.079 –7.01*** 2019Q2 –0.091 –8.62*** –0.092 –8.98*** –0.085 –8.10*** 2019Q3 –0.082 –7.62*** –0.085 –8.03*** –0.077 –7.22*** 2019Q4 –0.074 –7.03*** –0.075 –7.28*** –0.070 –6.71*** 2020Q1 –0.071 –6.28*** –0.072 –6.54*** –0.065 –5.80*** 2020Q2 –0.053 –5.06*** –0.054 –5.23*** –0.047 –4.50*** 2020Q3 –0.036 –3.48*** –0.041 –4.13*** –0.032 –3.05*** 2020Q4 –0.034 –3.28*** –0.039 –3.81*** –0.031 –2.99*** 2021Q1 –0.019 –1.82** –0.022 –2.09** –0.018 –1.71* 2021Q2 –0.014 –1.30 –0.018 –1.65* –0.013 –1.20 2021Q3 –0.014 –1.25 –0.017 –1.61 –0.012 –1.11 Spatial autocorr. coeff. – 0.196 52.50*** 0.056 22.32*** (Pseudo) R-square 0.852 0.859 0.855 F value 6215.69*** – AIC 14781.55 14678.08 14737.21 Robust lag – 683.37*** Note: ***, **, and * denote significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively. Table A2. Complete results of the spatial quantile regression model Model Low ……………………………….. Housing prices ……………………………….. High 0.1 q 0.25 q 0.5 q 0.75 q 0.9 q Variable Coeff. t value Coeff. t value Coeff. t value Coeff. t value Coeff. t value Constant 15.916 582.66*** 16.067 991.19*** 16.155 1303.56*** 16.236 1297.69*** 16.334 1150.88*** Area 0.008 131.06*** 0.008 230.96*** 0.008 305.09*** 0.008 300.55*** 0.008 265.16*** Floor –0.002 –2.15** 0.001 1.51 0.001 3.91*** 0.002 5.064*** 0.002 3.27*** TStory –0.004 –5.40*** –0.001 –3.01*** 0.001 3.31*** 0.003 7.32*** 0.003 6.37*** Bathroom 0.069 12.16*** 0.061 17.98*** 0.055 21.54*** 0.054 20.79*** 0.049 16.63*** Age –0.012 –55.95*** –0.012 –88.20*** –0.011 –105.21*** –0.010 –100.58*** –0.010 –86.66*** Dist. MRT –0.012 –17.80*** –0.013 –33.05*** –0.011 –38.23*** –0.010 –32.26*** –0.009 –25.01*** Dist. CC –0.002 –9.48*** –0.003 –16.04*** –0.003 –26.20*** –0.004 –29.40*** –0.004 –26.04*** THA –0.122 –17.62*** –0.124 –30.11*** –0.097 –30.80*** –0.061 –19.22*** –0.038 –10.64*** FHA 0.069 2.24** 0.050 2.74*** 0.014 1.69* –0.018 –1.26 –0.024 –1.51 THA × FHA –0.023 –0.40 0.037 1.07 0.056 2.10** 0.089 3.30*** 0.045 1.45 Administrative districts Zhongzheng 0.227 14.01*** 0.113 11.76*** 0.130 17.66*** 0.190 25.65*** 0.226 26.85*** Datong 0.017 1.65* –0.020 –2.11** 0.015 2.02** 0.038 5.06*** 0.054 6.34*** Zhongshan 0.010 0.83 –0.016 –2.18** 0.078 13.67*** 0.130 22.51*** 0.170 26.03*** Songshan 0.280 18.37*** 0.209 23.20*** 0.227 32.81*** 0.251 36.07*** 0.270 34.13*** Da’an 0.282 16.76*** 0.233 23.41*** 0.253 33.15*** 0.294 38.27*** 0.326 37.37*** Xinyi 0.233 15.08*** 0.159 17.36*** 0.189 26.95*** 0.229 32.37*** 0.252 31.44*** Shilin 0.236 15.03*** 0.170 18.28*** 0.213 29.98*** 0.272 37.88*** 0.308 37.82*** Beitou 0.051 2.52** 0.013 1.08 0.102 11.11*** 0.172 18.66*** 0.199 18.95*** Neihu 0.186 14.31*** 0.080 10.36*** 0.101 17.17*** 0.141 23.62*** 0.163 24.13*** Nangan 0.236 14.52*** 0.129 13.31*** 0.143 19.40*** 0.141 18.97*** 0.118 14.04*** Wensha 0.070 5.46*** –0.027 –3.49*** –0.007 –1.20 0.017 2.85*** 0.023 3.39*** End of Table A1 ===== PAGE 15 (score 220, numeric-paren 179, table-words 1, var-words 1) ===== International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 2024, 28(1), 1–15 15 Model Low ……………………………….. Housing prices ……………………………….. High 0.1 q 0.25 q 0.5 q 0.75 q 0.9 q Trading years × quarters 2012Q3 –0.323 –13.15*** –0.269 –18.48*** –0.254 –22.80*** –0.220 –19.58*** –0.206 –16.19*** 2012Q4 –0.294 –13.19*** –0.269 –20.35*** –0.243 –24.05*** –0.206 –20.19*** –0.200 –17.32*** 2013Q1 –0.258 –11.09*** –0.220 –15.99*** –0.175 –16.64*** –0.155 –18.30*** –0.145 –12.03*** 2013Q2 –0.185 –8.54*** –0.144 –11.17*** –0.120 –12.20*** –0.108 –10.83*** –0.108 –9.56*** 2013Q3 –0.170 –7.46*** –0.133 –9.84*** –0.109 –10.61*** –0.087 –8.34*** –0.097 –8.19*** 2013Q4 –0.144 –6.53*** –0.109 –8.33*** –0.086 –8.60*** –0.073 –7.16*** –0.073 –6.33*** 2014Q1 –0.118 –5.01*** –0.086 –6.16*** –0.072 –6.75*** –0.061 –5.67*** –0.053 –4.30*** 2014Q2 –0.325 –14.12*** –0.136 –9.93*** –0.091 –8.66*** –0.065 –6.13*** –0.059 –4.90*** 2014Q3 –0.109 –4.55*** –0.103 –7.30*** –0.093 –8.63*** –0.062 –5.66*** –0.078 –6.29*** 2014Q4 –0.111 –4.79*** –0.088 –6.38*** –0.068 –6.45*** –0.066 –6.26*** –0.069 –5.78*** 2015Q1 –0.138 –5.37*** –0.107 –7.05*** –0.067 –11.89*** –0.041 –3.50*** –0.040 –3.06*** 2015Q2 –0.098 –4.00*** –0.083 –5.71*** –0.054 –4.70*** –0.041 –3.65*** –0.058 –4.60*** 2015Q3 –0.093 –3.68*** –0.076 –5.07*** –0.070 –6.36*** –0.066 –5.72*** –0.071 –5.39*** 2015Q4 –0.132 –5.53*** –0.112 –7.88*** –0.103 –9.50*** –0.082 –7.44*** –0.081 –6.52*** 2016Q1 –0.128 –4.54*** –0.117 –6.99*** –0.097 –7.63*** –0.096 –11.62*** –0.112 –7.68*** 2016Q2 –0.096 –4.09*** –0.084 –6.00*** –0.077 –7.23*** –0.057 –5.26*** –0.057 –4.69*** 2016Q3 –0.136 –5.29*** –0.125 –8.21*** –0.112 –9.65*** –0.082 –7.00*** –0.089 –6.68*** 2016Q4 –0.129 –4.97*** –0.124 –8.06*** –0.116 –9.83*** –0.085 –7.17*** –0.086 –6.37*** 2017Q1 –0.139 –5.12*** –0.122 –7.56*** –0.115 –9.31*** –0.105 –8.42*** –0.110 –7.82*** 2017Q2 –0.109 –4.24*** –0.107 –7.02*** –0.104 –8.91*** –0.094 –7.96*** –0.084 –6.31*** 2017Q3 –0.148 –5.66*** –0.120 –7.71*** –0.122 –10.32*** –0.115 –9.63*** –0.120 –8.86*** 2017Q4 –0.158 –6.17*** –0.138 –9.05*** –0.135 –11.61*** –0.144 –12.26*** –0.122 –9.20*** 2018Q1 –0.129 –4.78*** –0.109 –6.77*** –0.118 –9.60*** –0.111 –8.97*** –0.107 –7.58*** 2018Q2 –0.153 –6.06*** –0.116 –7.75*** –0.123 –10.71*** –0.119 –10.31*** 0.122 –9.32*** 2018Q3 –0.114 –4.37*** –0.116 –7.46*** –0.112 –9.43*** –0.099 –8.31*** –0.089 –6.65*** 2018Q4 –0.102 –3.96*** –0.093 –6.09*** –0.086 –7.34*** –0.059 –4.98*** –0.073 –5.45*** 2019Q1 –0.086 –3.23*** –0.095 –6.01*** –0.097 –8.02*** –0.095 –7.83*** –0.108 –7.83*** 2019Q2 –0.093 –3.73*** –0.077 –5.23*** –0.095 –8.42*** –0.098 –8.64*** –0.111 –8.66*** 2019Q3 –0.100 –3.93*** –0.096 –6.35*** –0.093 –8.09*** –0.070 –6.04*** –0.087 –6.57*** 2019Q4 –0.090 –3.63*** –0.070 –4.77*** –0.084 –7.50*** –0.067 –5.89*** –0.082 –6.34*** 2020Q1 –0.069 –2.61*** –0.076 –4.83*** –0.077 –6.35*** –0.073 –5.96*** –0.092 –6.67*** 2020Q2 –0.049 –1.97** –0.054 –3.72*** –0.065 –5.80*** –0.060 –5.28*** –0.070 –5.48*** 2020Q3 –0.039 –1.69* –0.036 –2.53** –0.052 –4.72*** –0.051 –4.60*** –0.067 –5.33*** 2020Q4 –0.036 –1.48 –0.041 –2.88*** –0.035 –3.19*** –0.038 –3.46*** –0.047 –3.77*** 2021Q1 –0.033 –1.31 –0.020 –1.35 –0.023 –2.04** –0.015 –1.34 –0.026 –1.99** 2021Q2 –0.029 –1.14 –0.022 –1.43 –0.022 –1.84* –0.014 –1.16 –0.030 –2.21** 2021Q3 –0.017 –0.67 –0.015 –0.97 –0.018 –1.55 –0.016 –1.39 –0.036 –2.67*** Spatial autocorr. coeff. 0.163 18.14*** 0.185 34.70*** 0.200 48.77*** 0.214 51.82*** 0.217 46.49*** (Pseudo) R-square 0.577 0.606 0.641 0.671 0.693 End of Table A2