# RECORD 8d5f6b09f9058fc5a131a22d58a856d18ce849c7 # TITLE: Information value of property description: A Machine learning approach # YEAR: 2021.0 VENUE: Journal of Urban Economics DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2020.103299 # AUTHORS: Lily Shen; Stephen L. Ross # PAGES: 42 CANDIDATE TABLE PAGES (1-based): [38, 39, 40, 42] # ABSTRACT: Abstract This paper employs machine learning to quantify the value of “soft” information contained in real estate property descriptions. Textual descriptions contain information that traditional hedonic attributes cannot capture. A one standard deviation increase in the uniqueness of a property based on this “soft” information leads to a 15% increase in property sale price in a hedonic price model and a 10% increase in a repeat sales price model. The effects in the hedonic model appear to arise through two channels: the unobserved quality of the housing unit, and the market power of the housing unit relative to competing properties. The effects in the repeat sales model appear to be driven entirely by the market power of the unit. Further, an annual hedonic price index ignoring our measure of unobserved quality overstates real estate prices by between 10% to 23% and mistimes the stabilization of housing prices following the Great Recession. Similar, but smaller effects, are observed for the repeat sales price index. ===== PAGE 1 (score 1, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 1) ===== Department of Economics Working Paper Series 365 Fairfield Way, Unit 1063 Storrs, CT 06269-1063 Phone: (860) 486-3022 Fax: (860) 486-4463 http://www.econ.uconn.edu/ This working paper is indexed in RePEc, http://repec.org Information Value of Property Description: A Machine Learning Approach by Lily Shen Clemson University Stephen Ross University of Connecticut Working Paper 2019-20R December 2019, Revised September 2020 ===== PAGE 38 (score 92, numeric-paren 78, table-words 5, var-words 4) ===== Table 3: Compare Covariates with and without Unique Measures Dependent Variable: Ln(price) Full Sample Repeat Sale (1) (2) (3) (4) MLS Area-Year Unique Score (standard) 0.149*** 0.099*** (0.034) (0.020) Age -0.013*** -0.012*** -0.014*** -0.014*** (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.002) AgexAge 0.0001*** 0.0001*** 0.0001*** 0.0001*** (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) Bed -0.047** -0.042** -0.014 -0.013 (0.021) (0.020) (0.021) (0.021) Bath 0.247*** 0.245*** 0.320*** 0.315*** (0.018) (0.016) (0.035) (0.033) Ranch -0.260*** -0.244*** -0.036 -0.038 (0.021) (0.020) (0.042) (0.041) Renovated 0.253*** 0.225*** 0.359*** 0.345*** (0.032) (0.027) (0.042) (0.038) Sqft 0.009*** 0.009*** -0.001 -0.001 (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) Large Lot 0.012 0.004 0.066 0.077 (0.028) (0.025) (0.070) (0.073) Pool 0.049*** 0.051*** 0.026 0.010 (0.018) (0.016) (0.056) (0.057) Feature 0.126*** 0.090*** 0.023 -0.004 (0.031) (0.030) (0.083) (0.078) Constant 10.338*** 8.610*** 12.246*** 8.696*** (0.081) (0.359) (0.265) (0.521) Observations 40,851 40,851 7,317 7,317 R-squared 0.760 0.769 0.956 0.958 House Characteristics Yes Yes Yes Yes LocationxYear FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Property FE No No Yes Yes Cluster Area-Year Area-Year Area-Year Area-Year Note: The results displayed in columns (1) and (2) are using the full sample, and results displayed in columns (3) and (4) are based on the repeat sale sample. Columns (2) and (4) include the control for property uniqueness. The unique score coefficients are standardized to show the effect of the increase in one standard deviation. All models include MLS Area by Year fixed effects. Robust standard errors are clustered at the MLS Area by Year level, shown in parentheses (*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1). 36 ===== PAGE 39 (score 34, numeric-paren 17, table-words 8, var-words 1) ===== Table 4: House Uniqueness vs. Market Power Full Sample Repeat Sale Dependent Variables: Ln(Price) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) MLS Area-Year Unique Score (standard) 0.149*** 0.099*** (0.034) (0.020) MLS Area Competitor Unique Score (standard) 0.125*** 0.069 0.090*** 0.084* (0.032) (0.071) (0.020) (0.047) MLS Area Non-Competitor Unique Score (standard) 0.112*** 0.059 0.068*** 0.006 (0.028) (0.061) (0.021) (0.048) Observations 40,851 40,851 40,851 40,851 7,317 7,317 7,317 7,317 R-squared 0.769 0.767 0.767 0.767 0.958 0.958 0.957 0.957 House Characteristics Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes LocationxYear FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Property FE No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Cluster Area-Year Area-Year Area-Year Area-Year Area-Year Area-Year Area-Year Area-Year Note: The dependent variable this table is Ln(sale price). Columns (1) and (5) repeat the estimates from the previous table for the hedonic and repeat sales models respectively. Columns (2) and (6) present estimates using the new MLS area measure of uniqueness based on competing units, and Columns (3) and (7) present estimates using uniqueness based on non-competing units. Finally, in Columns (4) and (8), we run a horse race between the uniqueness measure based on competing units and based on non-competing units. All of the unique score coefficients are standardized to show the effect of the increase in one standard deviation. All models include MLS area by year fixed effects. Robust standard errors are clustered at the MLS Area by Year level, shown in parentheses (*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1). 37 ===== PAGE 40 (score 44, numeric-paren 18, table-words 12, var-words 2) ===== Table 5: Are the Uniqueness Effects Sensitive to Alternative Models? Panel A: Full Sample Analysis Dependent Variable: Ln(Price) Price Spread (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) MLS Area-Year Unique Score (standard) 0.149*** 0.149*** 0.136*** 0.122*** -0.761 (0.034) (0.032) (0.026) (0.019) (0.616) Observations 40,851 40,851 40,851 40,851 40,851 R-squared 0.769 0.784 0.811 0.886 0.238 House Characteristics Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Keywords No No Yes Yes No Transaction Characteristics No Yes Yes Yes No LocationxYear FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Agent FE No No No Yes No Property FE No No No No No Cluster Area-Year Area-Year Area-Year Area-Year Area-Year Panel B: Repeat Sale Analysis Dependent Variable: Ln(Price) Price Spread (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) MLS Area-Year Unique Score (standard) 0.099*** 0.098*** 0.080*** 0.050*** -0.297 (0.020) (0.020) (0.015) (0.018) (0.592) Observations 7,317 7,317 7,317 4,117 7,317 R-squared 0.958 0.961 0.968 0.989 0.684 House Characteristics Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Keywords No No Yes Yes No Transaction Characteristics No Yes Yes Yes No LocationxYear FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Agent FE No No No Yes No Property FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Cluster Area-Year Area-Year Area-Year Area-Year Area-Year Note: Panel A shows hedonic estimates using the full sample, and Penal B displays repeat sale results based on the repeat sales sample. The dependent variable in all specifications in Column (1)–(4) is Ln(sale price), and the dependent variable in Column (5) is Listing-Sale Spread in thousand dollars. Column (1) presents the standard hedonic model with just the uniqueness control added, Column (2) presents estimates for a model that also adds transaction characteristics, Column (3) also adds the dummy variables for the presence of specific keywords, and Column (4) adds agent fixed effects. Column (5) presents the model on the listing- sales price spread. The unique score coefficients are standardized to show the effect of the increase in one standard deviation. Robust standard errors are clustered at the Area-Year level, shown in parentheses (*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1). 38 ===== PAGE 41 (score 13, numeric-paren 0, table-words 4, var-words 5) ===== Table 6: Summary Statistics of Hedonic Controls by Year Year: 2010 2011 2012 2013 VARIABLES Mean Std. Dev. Mean Std. Dev. Mean Std. Dev. Mean Std. Dev. MLS Area-Year Unique Score 0.75 0.07 0.78 0.06 0.78 0.05 0.78 0.05 MLS Area-Year Unique Score (Mean Diff) 0.0013 0.0269 0.0034 0.0262 -0.0003 0.0262 -0.0011 0.0242 Ln(Sale Price) 11.84 1.39 11.85 1.44 12.01 1.32 12.34 1.17 Age 42.62 30.32 42.85 30.20 45.03 30.09 45.33 30.02 Fireplace (d) 0.99 1.05 1.03 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.07 0.99 Pool (d) 0.05 0.21 0.06 0.23 0.05 0.22 0.05 0.23 Bed 3.61 1.02 3.62 1.04 3.61 1.03 3.63 1.06 Ranch (d) 0.47 0.50 0.44 0.50 0.43 0.50 0.42 0.49 Bath 2.64 1.30 2.70 1.33 2.72 1.29 2.75 1.26 Renovated (d) 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.18 0.06 0.24 0.08 0.27 Sqft (100) 20.95 11.61 22.56 12.99 22.95 13.71 23.44 13.58 Year: 2014 2015 2016 VARIABLES Mean Std. Dev. Mean Std. Dev. Mean Std. Dev. MLS Area-Year Unique Score 0.79 0.04 0.78 0.05 0.78 0.06 MLS Area-Year Unique Score (Mean Diff) -0.0021 0.0254 -0.0016 0.0267 -0.0008 0.0272 Ln(Sale Price) 12.45 1.12 12.47 1.10 12.49 1.05 Age 46.85 31.35 47.60 32.02 48.53 31.94 Fireplace (d) 1.10 1.06 1.08 1.06 1.03 1.06 Pool (d) 0.05 0.22 0.05 0.22 0.05 0.21 Bed 3.61 1.05 3.59 1.02 3.60 1.02 Ranch (d) 0.44 0.50 0.42 0.49 0.44 0.50 Bath 2.73 1.29 2.71 1.28 2.68 1.26 Renovated (d) 0.08 0.27 0.09 0.28 0.10 0.30 Sqft (100) 23.75 14.51 23.53 13.72 23.06 13.86 Notes: This table displays the summary statistics of the control variables by transaction year. The means for each variable are shown in separate rows, and means and standard deviation for each year are shown in separate columns. 39 ===== PAGE 42 (score 53, numeric-paren 45, table-words 4, var-words 0) ===== Table 7: Coefficient of Year FE Dependent Variable: Ln (Price) Model: Hedonic Index Repeat Sale Index Model 1 Model 2 Diff. M1- M2 Model 1 Model 2 Diff. M1- M2 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 2011 (d) -0.057* -0.177*** 0.120 -0.012 -0.068** 0.056 (0.030) (0.026) (0.033) (0.028) P(Chi2) 0.000 0.009 2012 (d) 0.068 -0.060** 0.008 0.063* 0.020 0.043 (0.044) (0.025) (0.035) (0.033) P(Chi2) 0.004 0.020 2013 (d) 0.362*** 0.220*** 0.142 0.287*** 0.250*** 0.037 (0.054) (0.029) (0.047) (0.039) P(Chi2) 0.003 0.057 2014 (d) 0.463*** 0.304*** 0.159 0.360*** 0.323*** 0.037 (0.066) (0.034) (0.046) (0.037) P(Chi2) 0.006 0.066 2015 (d) 0.494*** 0.352*** 0.142 0.484*** 0.453*** 0.031 (0.080) (0.057) (0.049) (0.048) P(Chi2) 0.019 0.130 2016 (d) 0.553*** 0.444*** 0.109 0.604*** 0.575*** 0.029 (0.091) (0.065) (0.072) (0.063) P(Chi2) 0.115 0.206 Control Unique No Yes No Yes R-squared 0.509 0.571 0.947 0.949 Notes: This table displays the year indicator coefficient estimates from the indexing models first for the hedonic models and then for the repeat sale models. The estimates for each year are presented in separate rows, and each specification is shown in a set of three columns: the first presenting estimates for a model that does not control for the uniqueness, the second from a model that includes uniqueness, and the third column presenting the differences between these two model estimates and the corresponding P–values. Robust standard errors are clustered at the Zip Code level, shown in parentheses (*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1). 40