# RECORD aa82db73a0ef7b24a4266aa846327f66030956a0 # TITLE: A spatial analysis of EPCs in The Belfast Metropolitan Area housing market # YEAR: 2019.0 VENUE: Journal of Property Research DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2019.1697345 # AUTHORS: M. McCord; D. Lo; P. Davis; Lesley Hemphill; John McCord; M. Haran # PAGES: 37 CANDIDATE TABLE PAGES (1-based): [28, 30, 31, 33, 35, 36] # ABSTRACT: ABSTRACT Energy performance remains a debated topic in real estate, particularly with reference to the capitalisation effect with property value. An emerging corpus of research studies have investigated the relationship between energy performance characteristics and the role of Energy Performance Certificates. Whilst these studies have consistently demonstrated that a pricing effect exists, some recent studies have shown that Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) are more complex and inconclusive, particularly when accounting for data limitations and changing model specifications. Moreover, a majority of these studies neglect to adequately account for absolute location and therefore, arguably, do not examine the geographic variation between EPCs and property value across the housing market setting. This study presents one of the first spatial analyses of EPCs using transactions for the Belfast Metropolitan Area. In evaluating whether spatial effects exist between EPCs and house prices, a number of spatial tests are performed and a series of models are developed to account for spatial dependency and determine whether there are any spatially correlating effects. The findings indicate that EPCs comprise a partial effect on house prices, and importantly, there are pricing differentials in the spatial variation in EPCs with the pricing effects conforming to both spatial clustering and randomness. ===== PAGE 1 (score 4, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 4) ===== A spatial analysis of EPCs in The Belfast Metropolitan Area housing market McCord, M., Lo, D., Davis, P., Hemphill, L., McCord, J., & Haran, M. (2019). A spatial analysis of EPCs in The Belfast Metropolitan Area housing market. Journal of Property Research, 37(1), 25-61. https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2019.1697345 Link to publication record in Ulster University Research Portal Published in: Journal of Property Research Publication Status: Published (in print/issue): 04/12/2019 DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2019.1697345 Document Version Author Accepted version Document Licence: Unspecified For Author Accepted Manuscripts (AAM) published under Ulster University's Rights Retention Policy for Scholarly Works (RRPSW) When citing an AAM published under Ulster University's RRPSW please use the following citation structure: Author, A. A. (Year). Title of article. Journal Name, [Accepted Author Manuscript]. PURE Portal URL. Licensed under CC BY 4.0. General rights The copyright and moral rights to the output are retained by the output author(s), unless otherwise stated by the document licence. 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If you discover content in the Research Portal that you believe breaches copyright or violates any law, please contact pure-support@ulster.ac.uk Download date: 21/10/2026 ===== PAGE 28 (score 21, numeric-paren 0, table-words 3, var-words 12) ===== For Peer Review Only Tables and Figures <<< Table 1 Variable Descriptions>>> Variable Description Type Sale Price Transaction price C In(Price) Log of transaction price C Floor area Size of Floor area in m2 C Property Type Type of property (transformed to binary e.g. 1 if Terr; 0 otherwise) B Property Age Age of property (transformed to binary e.g. 1 if Pre1919; 0 otherwise) B Heating Type Type of heating (transformed to binary e.g. 1 if gas; 0 otherwise) B Garage Garage present (transformed to binary e.g. 1 if Garage; 0 otherwise) B EPC score Energy efficiency score C Sale period Date of sale period (transformed to binary e.g. 1 if Q3 2013; 0 otherwise) B Sale Date1 Date of transacted sale C NB. C = continuous; B = binary. 1For geostatistical (GWR; SLM) models only. <<< Table 2 Sample representativeness >>> Variable Obs. % Terrace 408 27.604 Semi-detached 528 35.724 Detached 408 27.604 Apartments 134 9.066 Elec Heat 29 1.962 Gas Heat 523 35.385 Oil Heat 915 61.908 Solid Heat 11 0.744 NB_Post1980 442 29.905 Pre1919 130 8.795 Early Modern 380 25.710 Post War 265 17.929 Inter War 261 17.659 No Garage 569 38.498 Garage 909 61.502 <<>> Sale Price (In)Price Floor Area EPC Minimum: 24,500 10.106 31 16 Maximum: 900,000 13.71 447 85 Range: 875,500 3.604 416 69 1st Quartile: 90,000 11.408 85 44 Median: 130,000 11.775 104 55 3rd Quartile: 197,500 12.193 141 65 Mean: 164,182 11.818 122.74 54.129 S.E. of Mean: 3015.85 0.016 1.543 0.391 Std. Deviation: 115,944 0.605 59.33 15.042 Skewness: 2.311 0.226 1.964 -0.247 Page 26 of 35 URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rjpr Email: jpr@abdn.ac.uk Journal of Property Research 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 ===== PAGE 29 (score 17, numeric-paren 0, table-words 2, var-words 1) ===== For Peer Review Only Kurtosis: -21.991 -0.044 -14.146 1.725 <<
>> Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Dev. n Apt Sold Price 29,500 240,000 110,060.07 40520.94 In Price 4.47 5.38 5.01 0.17 Current EPC 19 84 56.03 15.19 134 Detach Sold Price 54,000 900,000 258,961.27 141154.54 In Price 4.73 5.95 5.36 0.22 Current EPC 19 83 54.54 15.02 408 Semi-Detach Sold Price 44,000 785,000 152,737.20 87120.98 In Price 4.64 5.89 5.14 0.19 Current EPC 18 83 53.26 15.03 528 Terr Sold Price 24,500 675,000 101987.25 66918.32 In Price 4.39 5.83 4.94 0.23 Current EPC 16 85 54.22 15.01 408 Inter War Sold Price 25,000 900,000 162,282.97 132,895.19 In Price 4.4 5.95 5.09 0.31 Current EPC 19 83 55.15 15.07 261 Post War Sold Price 31,000 535,000 144,982.45 80,421.41 In Price 4.49 5.73 5.1 0.23 Current EPC 16 83 53.85 15.42 265 Early Modern Sold Price 24,500 800,000 157,032.48 110,621.80 In Price 4.39 5.9 5.12 0.25 Current EPC 18 85 53.64 15.11 380 Pre1919 Sold Price 30,000 785,000 201,084.62 185,275.09 In Price 4.48 5.89 5.15 0.36 Current EPC 18 83 52.74 15.41 130 NB-Post1980 Sold Price 44,000 765,000 172,105.75 97,205.79 In Price 4.64 5.88 5.18 0.21 Current EPC 19 84 54.52 14.64 442 <<
>> Model Num. Variables (#) No. Vars R² Cond . Num . AICc Delta AICc L(gi|x ) AICc wi 339 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13 10 0.67 4 2.21 4 - 1390.84 0.413 0.813 0.023 342 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 13 8 0.67 3 2.19 8 - 1390.75 0.509 0.775 0.022 373 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 13 7 0.67 3 2.15 2 - 1390.65 0.605 0.739 0.021 353 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 11, 12, 13 9 0.67 3 2.21 4 - 1390.15 1.111 0.574 0.016 347 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13 9 0.67 3 2.21 2 - 1389.81 1.446 0.485 0.014 291 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 11, 13 9 0.67 3 2.18 3 - 1389.77 1.488 0.475 0.013 370 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 11, 13 8 0.67 3 2.19 4 - 1389.77 1.49 0.475 0.013 338 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13 10 0.67 4 2.24 8 - 1389.76 1.497 0.473 0.013 341 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 12, 13 9 0.67 3 2.23 4 -1389.7 1.559 0.459 0.013 Page 27 of 35 URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rjpr Email: jpr@abdn.ac.uk Journal of Property Research 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 ===== PAGE 30 (score 44, numeric-paren 19, table-words 5, var-words 5) ===== For Peer Review Only 372 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 12, 13 8 0.67 3 2.19 2 - 1389.67 1.584 0.453 0.013 99 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 13 9 0.67 3 2.20 4 - 1389.59 1.672 0.434 0.012 357 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 13 7 0.67 2 2.16 9 - 1389.49 1.765 0.414 0.012 276 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 13 10 0.67 4 2.21 9 - 1389.32 1.935 0.38 0.011 NB. Parameter estimates averaged across 8,191 OLS models using Akaike Weights (AICc wi) #1:FloorArea;#2:Terr;#3:Detach;#4:Apt;#5:Elec;#6:Gas;#7:Solid;#8:Pre1919;#9:Earlymodern;#10:PostWar;#11:InterWar;#12:No Garage;#13:EPC <<
>> Model 1 Model 2 Variable β t % Effect β t %Effect Constant 10.995 253.845*** 11.17 279.803*** Floor Area 0.007 34.316*** 0.70 0.007 33.664*** 0.70 TERR -0.408 -16.6*** -33.5 -0.404 -16.274*** -33.24 DETACH 0.102 3.97*** 10.74 0.103 3.973*** 10.85 APT -0.092 -2.453*** -8.79 -0.087 -2.176*** -8.30 Pre1919 0.06 1.732* 6.18 0.064 1.758* 6.61 Early Modern -0.029 -1.279 -2.86 -0.025 -0.978 -2.57 Inter War 0.037 1.442 3.77 0.041 1.439 4.19 No Garage -0.019 -0.971 -1.88 -0.028 -1.134 -2.82 Gas Heat 0.132 6.358*** 14.11 0.138 6.048*** 14.80 EPC score 0.001 2.049** 0.1 EPC Band G -0.119 -0.945 -11.22 EPC Band F -0.035 -0.956 -3.44 EPC Band E -0.003 -0.114 -0.030 EPC Band C 0.045 1.145 4.60 EPC Band B 0.088 3.008*** 9.20 N 1,478 1,478 R2 0.674 0.674 Adj. R2 0.672 0.671 F-stat 303.074*** 188.999*** AICc 1075.641 1086.035 ***denotes significance at the 1% level; **5% level; * 10% level. %effect = e(β)-1. Parsimonious model presented. Spatial and temporal dummies are available upon request. For the Banded model, Band D is the hold-out category. <<
>> Model 3 Model 4 Page 28 of 35 URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rjpr Email: jpr@abdn.ac.uk Journal of Property Research 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 ===== PAGE 31 (score 36, numeric-paren 17, table-words 3, var-words 5) ===== For Peer Review Only Variable β VIF t % Effect β VIF t % Effect Constant 11.058 362.115*** 11.049 368.901*** Floor Area 0.007 1.573 34.486*** 0.70 0.007 1.566 34.61*** 0.70 Terr -0.405 1.463 -16.586*** -33.50 Detach 0.103 1.624 3.990*** 10.85 Apt -0.081 1.401 -2.173** -7.78 Terr x EPC -0.406 1.483 -16.512*** -33.37 Detach x EPC 0.102 1.624 3.971*** 10.74 Apt x EPC -0.086 1.413 -2.308** -8.24 Pre1919 0.058 1.194 1.661 5.97 Early Modern -0.029 1.201 -1.285 -2.86 Inter War 0.039 1.194 1.503 3.98 Pre1919 x EPC 0.001 1.168 1.986** 0.10 Early Modern x EPC -0.0007 1.159 -0.67 -0.07 Inter War x EPC 0.0008 1.155 2.073** 0.08 Gas Heat 0.131 1.216 6.277*** 14.00 0.131 1.221 6.276*** 14.00 No Garage -0.018 1.058 -0.95 -1.78 -0.018 1.059 -0.947 -1.78 N 1,478 1,478 R2 0.673 0.673 Adj. R2 0.671 0.671 F-stat 335.552*** 335.812*** AICc 1077.832 1077.059 ***denotes significance at the 1% level; **5% level. Parsimonious model presented. Spatial and temporal dummies are available upon request. Page 29 of 35 URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rjpr Email: jpr@abdn.ac.uk Journal of Property Research 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 ===== PAGE 32 (score 1, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 1) ===== For Peer Review Only Page 30 of 35 URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rjpr Email: jpr@abdn.ac.uk Journal of Property Research 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 ===== PAGE 33 (score 60, numeric-paren 40, table-words 2, var-words 4) ===== For Peer Review Only <<
>> Variable Model 5 Model 6 Model 7 Model 8 Model 9 Model 10 β t β T β t β t β t β t Constant 10.984 236.915 11.062 424.019*** 11.039 419.784*** 10.875 419.864*** 11.47 1.781* 11.262 38.189*** Predictor Set {A} Floor Area 0.007 33.83*** 0.007 35.798*** 0.007 35.511*** 0.008 45.47*** 0.007 34.19*** 0.007 34.573*** Terr -0.407 -16.47*** -0.408 -16.597*** Detach 0.103 3.987*** 0.101 3.916*** Apt -0.091 -2.337** -0.094 -2.513*** Pre1919 0.063 1.731* 0.134 6.409*** Early Modern -0.027 -1.027 0.059 1.699 Inter War 0.04 1.385 -0.029 -1.288 Gas Heat 0.129 6.282*** 0.036 1.984** Predictor Set {B} EPC 0.001 2.037** 0.001 2.155* Terr x EPC -0.359 -15.452*** -0.384 -16.472*** -0.405 -16.466*** Detach x EPC 0.091 3.509*** 0.103 3.983*** 0.103 3.983*** Apt x EPC <.001 0.081 -0.086 -2.348*** -0.088 -2.362*** Pre1919 x EPC -0.124 -3.337*** 0.058 1.664 Early Modern x EPC -0.008 -0.334 -0.029 -1.274 Inter War x EPC <.001 -0.946 0.038 1.485 Gas Heat 0.132 6.428*** 0.079 3.698*** 0.128 6.249*** X*Y 0.0013 0.008 0.001 -0.87 Y*Y 0.0034 1.481 0.003 0.862 X*X 0.0018 0.03 0.002 0.832 N: 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478 1,478 1478 R²: 0.674 0.662 0.671 0.586 0.675 0.673 Adj. R² 0.672 0.661 0.67 0.585 0.672 0.671 F-stat: 302.7*** 720*** 600.03*** 521.1*** 202.2*** 274.4*** AICc 1076.561 1117.8 1078.9 1416.09 1081.3 1081.1 Total {A} 0.673 0.583 0.583 0.583 0.674 0.673 Page 31 of 35 URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rjpr Email: jpr@abdn.ac.uk Journal of Property Research 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 ===== PAGE 34 (score 5, numeric-paren 1, table-words 0, var-words 1) ===== For Peer Review Only Total {B} 0.003 0.37 0.389 0.008 0.004 0.002 Total {A+B} 0.674 0.662 0.671 0.586 0.674 0.673 [A.B]{A} only 0.67 0.292 0.282 0.582 0.671 0.671 [A:B] Shared Variance 0.002 0.291 0.301 <0.001 0.003 0.001 [B.A]{B} only <0.001 0.079 0.088 0.007 0.001 0.001 [1-(A+B)] Unexplain. 0.326 0.338 0.329 0.41 0.325 0.327 ***denotes significance at the 1% level; ** 5% level; * 10% level. Page 32 of 35 URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rjpr Email: jpr@abdn.ac.uk Journal of Property Research 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 ===== PAGE 35 (score 51, numeric-paren 13, table-words 10, var-words 5) ===== For Peer Review Only <<
>> Model 11 Variable Minimum Lwr. Quartile Median Upr. Quartile Maximum Constant 10.6523 10.8884 10.9599 11.0526 11.2886 Floor Area 0.00498 0.00588 0.00656 0.00694 0.00902 Terr -0.59563 -0.44609 -0.41486 -0.3731 -0.28155 Detach -0.11537 0.04578 0.10972 0.14814 0.29126 Apt -0.29614 -0.19128 -0.07577 -0.02955 0.10419 Pre1919 -0.18167 0.00603 0.08354 0.11088 0.25293 Inter War -0.07604 -0.01486 0.00994 0.0570 0.23241 Early Modern -0.14111 -0.08204 -0.0412 0.003 0.1531 Gas Heat -0.00848 0.08066 0.13001 0.19696 0.28224 EPC Score -0.00314 0.00001 0.00224 0.00294 0.00412 N 1,478 R2 0.720 Adj R2 0.715 F-sat 27.432*** AICc 1128.349 NB: Spatial function: Bi-Squared; Adaptive Kernel: 15% neighbours; Optimization using the Golden Section Search and the Akaike Information Criterion (AICc). R2 is a pseudo R2 statistic. ***denotes significance at the 1% level. <<
>> Model 12 Variable Minimum Lwr. Quartile Median Upr. Quartile Maximum Terr x EPC -0.00962 -0.00698 -0.00586 -0.00542 -0.00365 Detach x EPC -0.00154 0.00151 0.00227 0.0031 0.00456 Apt x EPC -0.00455 -0.00203 -0.0002 0.00038 0.00457 Pre1919 x EPC -0.0029 0.00029 0.00162 0.00256 0.0047 Early Modern x EPC -0.00279 -0.00111 -0.00039 0.0004 0.00295 Inter War x EPC -0.00118 0.00021 0.00062 0.00124 0.00316 Gas Heat x EPC -0.00021 0.00143 0.00209 0.0033 0.00591 NB: Spatial function: Bi-Squared; Adaptive Kernel: 15% neighbours; Optimization using the Golden Section Search and the Akaike Information Criterion (AICc). R2 is a pseudo R2 statistic. ***denotes significance at the 1% level. Only EPC statistics presented, full models are available upon request. <<
>> Model 13 (Base No lag) Model 14 (Base + Lag)1 Model 15 (Base+Lag + EPC)1 Variable β t β t β t Constant 10.9829 233.2693*** 10.64857 38.19565 8.806233 9.207948*** Floor Area 0.006611 33.88551*** 0.006795 28.6727*** 0.006796 28.72439*** Terr -0.398965 -15.9981*** -0.36092 -11.56670*** -0.363045 -11.64686*** Detach 0.099087 3.837041*** 0.100533 3.242625*** 0.102709 3.316137*** Apt -0.079251 -1.934257* -0.056519 -1.173586 -0.057789 -1.201785 Pre1919 0.054449 1.484746 0.030529 0.710688 0.035264 0.821004 Early Modern -0.020627 -0.790323 0.007467 0.226569 0.007792 0.236813 Inter War 0.04319 1.496247 0.030309 0.850356 0.024715 0.6924 Page 33 of 35 URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rjpr Email: jpr@abdn.ac.uk Journal of Property Research 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 ===== PAGE 36 (score 22, numeric-paren 10, table-words 3, var-words 3) ===== For Peer Review Only Gas Heat 0.128549 6.05882*** 0.108793 4.202728 0.10717 4.14469*** No Garage -0.017509 -0.907136 0.000841 0.035559 0.001888 0.079952 EPC 0.001248 2.05993** 0.001204 1.671947* 0.036022 2.081373** W*𝑷𝒊,𝒋 0.027939 1.195744 0.184266 2.273019** W* *EPC 𝑷𝒊,𝒋 -0.002952 -2.013548** R2 0.614722 0.673818 0.675209 Adj. R2 0.612213 0.669689 0.67075 F-stat 268.903*** 163.1962*** 151.4399*** AICc 0.747277 0.715859 0.713668 Log likelihood -503.7225 -330.9704 -328.9177 N 961 961 961 1inverse exponential distance models. ***denotes significance at the 1% level; **5% level; *10% level. Figures Figure 1 Property EPC scores and bands <<
>> Page 34 of 35 URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rjpr Email: jpr@abdn.ac.uk Journal of Property Research 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 ===== PAGE 37 (score 1, numeric-paren 0, table-words 0, var-words 1) ===== For Peer Review Only <<
>> Page 35 of 35 URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rjpr Email: jpr@abdn.ac.uk Journal of Property Research 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60