\begin{table}[htbp]
\centering\scriptsize
\caption{Monte Carlo: RMSE of monthly log changes (×100) at the province level, by scenario (Monte Carlo standard error in parentheses)}\label{tab:mc_rmse_province}
\begin{threeparttable}
\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{%
\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrr}
\toprule
Method & baseline & turning point & flat quality up & rising quality down & drifting hedonics & heavy tails & sparse & no local dynamics & idiosyncratic towns \\
\midrule
Median & 3.56 (0.08) & 3.56 (0.08) & 3.62 (0.08) & 3.55 (0.08) & 3.69 (0.08) & 3.59 (0.09) & 6.07 (0.13) & 3.56 (0.08) & 3.62 (0.08) \\
Stratified median & 3.08 (0.07) & 3.08 (0.07) & 3.13 (0.08) & 3.06 (0.07) & 3.14 (0.07) & 3.11 (0.08) & 5.21 (0.13) & 3.07 (0.07) & 3.15 (0.09) \\
Pooled TD (Huber) & 1.24 (0.02) & 1.24 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.24 (0.02) & 1.29 (0.03) & 1.24 (0.02) & 2.13 (0.04) & 1.22 (0.02) & 1.37 (0.03) \\
Rolling TD 13 m & 1.39 (0.03) & 1.39 (0.03) & 1.40 (0.03) & 1.39 (0.03) & 1.44 (0.03) & 1.41 (0.03) & 2.36 (0.05) & 1.39 (0.03) & 1.44 (0.03) \\
Repeat sales & 5.32 (0.10) & 5.32 (0.10) & 5.33 (0.10) & 5.33 (0.10) & 5.37 (0.10) & 7.42 (0.17) & 9.57 (0.21) & 5.28 (0.10) & 5.66 (0.13) \\
QHPI v2.1 arch. & 1.39 (0.03) & 1.39 (0.03) & 1.40 (0.03) & 1.39 (0.03) & 1.44 (0.03) & 1.41 (0.03) & 2.36 (0.05) & 1.39 (0.03) & 1.44 (0.03) \\
SHARP-HPI (smoothed) & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.03) & 1.29 (0.03) & 1.26 (0.02) & 2.14 (0.04) & 1.22 (0.02) & 1.37 (0.03) \\
SHARP: no EB pooling of $\tau^2$ & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.03) & 1.29 (0.03) & 1.26 (0.02) & 2.14 (0.04) & 1.22 (0.02) & 1.37 (0.03) \\
SHARP: fixed quality prices & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.26 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.03) & 1.29 (0.03) & 1.26 (0.02) & 2.13 (0.04) & 1.22 (0.02) & 1.37 (0.03) \\
SHARP: local linear trend & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.02) & 1.25 (0.03) & 1.29 (0.03) & 1.26 (0.02) & 2.14 (0.04) & 1.22 (0.02) & 1.37 (0.03) \\
SHARP: Gaussian & 1.59 (0.03) & 1.59 (0.03) & 1.59 (0.03) & 1.59 (0.03) & 1.63 (0.03) & 2.25 (0.05) & 2.62 (0.05) & 1.57 (0.03) & 1.68 (0.04) \\
SHARP: municipality-level location FE & 1.88 (0.04) & 1.88 (0.04) & 1.88 (0.04) & 1.88 (0.04) & 1.92 (0.05) & 1.96 (0.05) & 3.18 (0.09) & 1.87 (0.04) & 1.96 (0.05) \\
SHARP: stock-weighted bottom-up & 1.26 (0.02) & 1.26 (0.02) & 1.27 (0.02) & 1.26 (0.03) & 1.31 (0.03) & 1.75 (0.04) & 2.15 (0.04) & 1.23 (0.02) & 1.40 (0.03) \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}}
\begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize\item Averages over cells and replications; see Table~\ref{tab:mc_design} for the scenarios. Lower is better; the final two scenarios are the deliberate counter-examples.\end{tablenotes}
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}