\begin{table}[htbp]
\centering\scriptsize
\caption{Task B — directional accuracy (\% of forecasts with the sign of the realised change, changes above 0.5 log points) overall and at turning points (origins where the realised change reverses sign)}\label{tab:direction_b}
\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{%
\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrr}
\toprule
Model & h=1: all & h=1: turning pts & h=3: all & h=3: turning pts & h=6: all & h=6: turning pts & h=12: all & h=12: turning pts \\
\midrule
Mean growth & 60 & 51 & 70 & 50 & 78 & 51 & 90 & 47 \\
Momentum & 53 & 72 & 50 & 69 & 45 & 68 & 46 & 47 \\
AR(2), cell & 59 & 65 & 71 & 58 & 78 & 60 & 91 & 48 \\
Ridge (panel) & 65 & 68 & 73 & 58 & 76 & 59 & 91 & 48 \\
LightGBM (panel) & 70 & 77 & 75 & 65 & 78 & 59 & 91 & 47 \\
TFT-lite & 60 & 66 & 69 & 65 & 77 & 60 & 91 & 47 \\
BHPF & 65 & 67 & 73 & 57 & 77 & 59 & 91 & 49 \\
RAREF & 66 & 68 & 73 & 58 & 76 & 58 & 91 & 48 \\
QANSS & 67 & 75 & 73 & 61 & 76 & 64 & 75 & 50 \\
DSGFN & 63 & 66 & 77 & 65 & 79 & 60 & 91 & 47 \\
QREFA & 65 & 70 & 76 & 66 & 78 & 62 & 91 & 48 \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}}
\par\vspace{3pt}\parbox{\textwidth}{\footnotesize The no-change forecast has no sign; momentum has the sign of the last three-month change.}
\end{table}