\begin{table}[htbp]
\centering\scriptsize
\caption{Task B — MAE (×100) by cell size, horizon 3}\label{tab:het_b_size_level}
\begin{threeparttable}
\begin{tabular}{lrrrr}
\toprule
Model & mun\_large & mun\_small & province & region \\
\midrule
No change & 3.79 & 4.47 & 2.44 & 3.58 \\
Mean growth & 3.99 & 4.26 & 2.00 & 3.25 \\
Momentum & 3.88 & 4.48 & 2.73 & 3.73 \\
Random walk with drift & 3.94 & 4.62 & 1.90 & 3.27 \\
Seasonal naive & 3.64 & 4.89 & 1.37 & 2.85 \\
AR(2), cell & 3.72 & 3.99 & 2.06 & 3.14 \\
Local linear trend & 6.74 & 6.85 & 3.16 & 5.22 \\
Ridge (panel) & 3.21 & 3.82 & 2.06 & 2.78 \\
LightGBM (panel) & 2.90 & 3.44 & 1.52 & 2.47 \\
MLP (panel) & 3.51 & 4.12 & 2.08 & 3.04 \\
LSTM & 3.65 & 4.12 & 2.36 & 3.31 \\
GRU & 3.37 & 3.93 & 2.06 & 3.06 \\
TCN & 3.56 & 4.05 & 1.91 & 3.27 \\
TFT-lite & 3.75 & 4.44 & 2.09 & 3.46 \\
BHPF & 3.20 & 3.87 & 2.11 & 2.86 \\
RAREF & 3.39 & 3.87 & 2.12 & 2.82 \\
QANSS & 3.06 & 3.86 & 1.77 & 2.57 \\
DSGFN & 3.44 & 4.02 & 1.90 & 2.84 \\
QREFA & 3.14 & 3.76 & 1.66 & 2.57 \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}