\begin{table}[htbp]
\centering\scriptsize
\caption{Task B — Probabilistic accuracy (CRPS ×100, 90\% interval coverage \% and width ×100) of quality-adjusted index-change forecasts by horizon (months)}\label{tab:prob_b}
\resizebox{\textwidth}{!}{%
\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrrrrr}
\toprule
Model & 1: CRPS & 1: cov90 & 1: width90 & 3: CRPS & 3: cov90 & 3: width90 & 6: CRPS & 6: cov90 & 6: width90 & 12: CRPS & 12: cov90 & 12: width90 \\
\midrule
No change & 1.63 & 91 & 11.7 & 2.57 & 92 & 18.4 & 2.92 & 94 & 22.3 & 3.17 & 88 & 18.2 \\
Mean growth & 1.65 & 91 & 11.7 & 2.65 & 91 & 18.1 & 3.05 & 92 & 21.7 & 3.57 & 80 & 14.6 \\
Momentum & 1.60 & 92 & 11.6 & 2.46 & 92 & 17.6 & 2.73 & 93 & 19.4 & 3.17 & 89 & 18.4 \\
Random walk with drift & 1.71 & 92 & 12.3 & 2.87 & 92 & 20.4 & 3.72 & 91 & 26.2 & 6.01 & 87 & 32.6 \\
Seasonal naive & 1.94 & 91 & 13.6 & 2.92 & 92 & 20.3 & 3.69 & 92 & 25.3 & 6.01 & 87 & 32.6 \\
AR(2), cell & 1.61 & 91 & 11.3 & 2.47 & 92 & 18.0 & 2.82 & 93 & 20.2 & 3.11 & 89 & 17.9 \\
Local linear trend & 2.04 & 91 & 14.8 & 4.38 & 92 & 32.3 & 6.93 & 95 & 58.5 & 11.21 & 95 & 94.2 \\
Ridge (panel) & 1.57 & 90 & 10.4 & 2.28 & 90 & 14.1 & 3.10 & 83 & 15.3 & 6.34 & 48 & 16.4 \\
LightGBM (panel) & 1.46 & 77 & 6.7 & 2.14 & 76 & 9.6 & 2.72 & 74 & 11.0 & 3.80 & 66 & 12.5 \\
MLP (panel) & 1.81 & 72 & 7.5 & 2.55 & 73 & 10.3 & 3.35 & 63 & 11.4 & 8.50 & 36 & 17.6 \\
LSTM & 2.25 & 69 & 8.0 & 2.58 & 72 & 10.6 & 3.12 & 72 & 12.8 & 5.04 & 64 & 14.6 \\
GRU & 2.05 & 70 & 8.0 & 2.33 & 81 & 11.5 & 2.93 & 81 & 14.2 & 4.88 & 76 & 17.9 \\
TCN & 1.82 & 69 & 7.2 & 2.51 & 71 & 10.0 & 3.07 & 75 & 13.1 & 5.18 & 72 & 17.5 \\
TFT-lite & 1.83 & 69 & 7.3 & 2.76 & 73 & 11.1 & 3.46 & 68 & 12.1 & 4.88 & 56 & 13.7 \\
BHPF & 1.58 & 90 & 10.7 & 2.30 & 90 & 14.6 & 3.09 & 83 & 14.9 & 5.68 & 50 & 14.2 \\
RAREF & 1.57 & 90 & 10.3 & 2.33 & 89 & 14.0 & 3.09 & 84 & 15.5 & 6.16 & 50 & 16.5 \\
QANSS & 1.70 & 98 & 17.2 & 2.35 & 97 & 20.7 & 2.93 & 95 & 23.3 & 5.06 & 93 & 35.0 \\
DSGFN & 1.63 & 78 & 7.6 & 2.48 & 73 & 10.2 & 3.14 & 72 & 12.9 & 6.09 & 45 & 12.4 \\
QREFA & 1.49 & 85 & 8.9 & 2.19 & 85 & 12.2 & 2.85 & 82 & 13.7 & 5.32 & 51 & 13.2 \\
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\end{tabular}}
\end{table}