\begin{table}[htbp]
\centering\scriptsize
\caption{Task B, horizon 3 — MAE (×100) and MASE (in parentheses) by ex-post provincial regime of the target window (rising: provincial house index change above +2 log points over the horizon; falling: below $-2$; flat otherwise)}\label{tab:regime_b}
\begin{threeparttable}
\begin{tabular}{lrrr}
\toprule
Model & rising (17 origins) & flat (13 origins) & falling (1 origins) \\
\midrule
No change & 5.00 (1.00) & 3.10 (1.00) & 4.55 (1.00) \\
Mean growth & 4.01 (0.80) & 3.80 (1.23) & 6.38 (1.40) \\
Momentum & 5.20 (1.04) & 3.00 (0.97) & 3.87 (0.85) \\
AR(2), cell & 3.82 (0.76) & 3.54 (1.14) & 5.66 (1.25) \\
Ridge (panel) & 3.49 (0.70) & 3.44 (1.11) & 4.89 (1.08) \\
LightGBM (panel) & 3.16 (0.63) & 3.11 (1.00) & 3.81 (0.84) \\
TFT-lite & 4.68 (0.94) & 3.46 (1.12) & 3.50 (0.77) \\
BHPF & 3.52 (0.70) & 3.53 (1.14) & 4.98 (1.10) \\
RAREF & 3.52 (0.70) & 3.55 (1.14) & 5.03 (1.11) \\
QANSS & 3.56 (0.71) & 3.25 (1.05) & 5.18 (1.14) \\
DSGFN & 3.49 (0.70) & 4.00 (1.29) & 3.01 (0.66) \\
QREFA & 3.36 (0.67) & 3.51 (1.13) & 3.39 (0.75) \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}