% paper/tables/targets.tex — headline moments from data/processed/calibration_targets.csv (built 2026-10-27)
\begin{table}[htbp]
\centering
\footnotesize\singlespacing
\setlength{\tabcolsep}{4pt}
\begin{threeparttable}
\caption{Computed calibration targets}
\label{tab:targets}
\begin{tabular}{@{}>{\raggedright\arraybackslash}p{5.8cm}rl>{\raggedright\arraybackslash}p{4.8cm}@{}}
\toprule
Moment & Value & Period & Source series\\
\midrule
\multicolumn{4}{@{}l}{\textit{Factor shares and depreciation}}\\
Labour share, level (BLS index rescaled by PWT 2017) & 0.618 & 1984--2026 & FRED PRS85006173, LABSHPUSA156NRUG\\
\quad same, recent decade & 0.583 & 2015--2026 & same\\
Capital share, Fernald $\alpha$ & 0.354 & 1984--2025 & Fernald annual sheet\\
Depreciation rate, private fixed assets & 0.055 & 1984--2024 & FRED M1TTOTL1ES000 / K1TTOTL1ES000\\
\addlinespace
\multicolumn{4}{@{}l}{\textit{TFP (utilization-adjusted, annual AR(1))}}\\
$\rho_z$, linear trend & 0.876 & 1984--2025 & Fernald dtfp\_util\\
\quad same, long sample & 0.929 & 1948--2025 & same\\
$\rho_z$, HP(100) & 0.615 & 1984--2025 & same\\
$\rho_z$, HP(6.25) & 0.041 & 1984--2025 & same\\
$\rho_z$, quarterly HP(1600), per quarter (annualised) & 0.696 (0.235) & 1984Q1--2026Q2 & Fernald quarterly\\
$\sigma_\varepsilon$, linear trend & 0.0126 & 1984--2025 & Fernald dtfp\_util\\
$\sigma_\varepsilon$, HP(6.25) & 0.0074 & 1984--2025 & same\\
Mean TFP growth (log change) & 0.0095 & 1984--2025 & same\\
\addlinespace
\multicolumn{4}{@{}l}{\textit{Growth, rates and expenditure shares}}\\
Real GDP growth (log change) & 0.0272 & 1984--2025 & FRED GDPC1\\
Investment / GDP & 0.158 & 1984--2025 & FRED GPDIC1 / GDPC1\\
Consumption / GDP & 0.660 & 1984--2025 & FRED PCECC96 / GDPC1\\
Real 3-month bill rate, ex post (\%) & 0.57 & 1984--2025 & FRED TB3MS $-$ CPIAUCSL\\
10-year TIPS yield, mean (\%) & 0.97 & 2003--2025 & FRED DFII10\\
\quad same, latest (\%) & 2.66 & 2026-10-26 & same\\
\addlinespace
\multicolumn{4}{@{}l}{\textit{Equity and credit}}\\
Real equity return, mean / s.d.\ (\%) & 8.64 / 17.9 & 1872--2025 & Shiller ie\_data.xls\\
\quad same (\%) & 9.94 / 15.7 & 1984--2025 & same\\
Equity premium over bills, mean / s.d.\ (\%) & 9.17 / 17.7 & 1934--2025 & Shiller + FRED TB3MS\\
\quad same (\%) & 9.66 / 15.9 & 1984--2025 & same\\
Sharpe ratio & 0.52 & 1934--2025 & same\\
Investment-grade OAS, mean / max (\%) & 0.88 / 1.33 & 2023--2026 & FRED BAMLC0A0CM\tnote{a}\\
High-yield OAS, mean / max (\%) & 3.08 / 4.61 & 2023--2026 & FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2\tnote{a}\\
SLOOS net tightening, mean / 2008 / 2020 peaks & 6.6 / 83.6 / 71.2 & 1990--2025 & FRED DRTSCILM\\
Bank equity / assets, book & 0.095 & 2026-10-14 & FRED RALACBW027SBOG / TLAACBW027SBOG\\
\addlinespace
\multicolumn{4}{@{}l}{\textit{Wealth distribution (share of household net worth, \%)}}\\
Top 0.1\% / top 1\% / top 10\% & 15.0 / 32.5 / 68.9 & 2026:Q2 & Fed DFA\\
50th--90th percentile / bottom 50\% & 28.8 / 2.3 & 2026:Q2 & Fed DFA\\
Top 1\% / bottom 50\%, first quarter available & 22.8 / 3.5 & 1989:Q3 & Fed DFA\\
Gini, grouped lower bound & 0.751 & 2026:Q2 & Fed DFA (5 groups)\\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\begin{tablenotes}\footnotesize
\item All values are computed by \texttt{scripts/02\_build\_calibration\_targets.py} from the raw files listed in Appendix~\ref{app:data}; the full set of 118 targets is in \texttt{data/processed/calibration\_targets.csv}.
\item[a] Only the 2023-10-30 to 2026-10-26 window is distributed by FRED; the 2008 and 2020 peaks were not obtained.
\end{tablenotes}
\end{threeparttable}
\end{table}