[
 {"id":"C1","text":"Real-time naive forecast RMSE vs first releases is 2.01 pp at h=1 and 2.27 pp at h=2.","results_keys":["rmse_naive_h1","rmse_naive_h2","mae_naive_h1","mae_naive_h2"],"status":"supported","caveat":"8 origins only."},
 {"id":"C2","text":"The AR(1) (1985+, pandemic pairs excluded) has lower RMSE than naive: 26% lower at h=1 and 38% lower at h=2.","results_keys":["rmse_model_h1","rmse_model_h2","rel_improvement_rmse_h1","rel_improvement_rmse_h2"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Point estimates in this sample; not statistically significant (C3)."},
 {"id":"C3","text":"The AR(1) advantage is not statistically significant at conventional levels with 8 origins (p about 0.17-0.18), although it wins at 8/8 origins at h=2 and 5/8 at h=1.","results_keys":["dm_pvalue_two_sided_h1","dm_pvalue_two_sided_h2","n_origins_model_better_sqerr_h1","n_origins_model_better_sqerr_h2"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Simple t-test without HAC correction, small-sample normality assumed."},
 {"id":"C4","text":"First releases of the h=1 target quarters have since been revised by 0.56 pp on average in absolute value.","results_keys":["mean_abs_revision_h1_targets"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Relative to the 2026-10-30 vintage; recent quarters may be revised further."}
]