{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-03",
  "n_origins": 60,
  "first_origin": "2021-09-01",
  "last_origin": "2026-08-01",
  "lambda": 50.0,
  "normalisation_window": "expanding",
  "n_features": 8,
  "baseline_note": "naive and mean are the task-required baselines",
  "rmse_naive": 0.8830699166753823,
  "mae_naive": 0.6989594000000001,
  "rmse_mean": 0.5439355781141625,
  "mae_mean": 0.42929777256194207,
  "rmse_ridge": 0.5607989303521244,
  "mae_ridge": 0.45141289074453916,
  "rel_improvement_vs_naive": 0.3649439078805412,
  "rel_improvement_vs_mean": -0.031002480654837017,
  "dm_stat_ridge_vs_naive": 3.3649594921847754,
  "dm_pvalue_ridge_vs_naive": 0.0013506687241571726,
  "dm_stat_ridge_vs_mean": -0.5392198591267081,
  "dm_pvalue_ridge_vs_mean": 0.591764258342193,
  "dm_note": "Diebold-Mariano, squared-error loss, h=1, HLN correction, t(59) reference; positive stat => ridge more accurate",
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "data/README.md states the first month (1992-01) of every change series is empty, but ip_growth, oil_chg and permit_chg have values at 1992-01; only neworder_chg is missing (1992-01, 1992-02).",
      "handling": "Values used as given. Only ip_growth 1992-01 enters the analysis (lag-2 feature of the s=1992-03 training row, as specified); missing neworder_chg rows precede the training window."
    },
    {
      "issue": "Extreme COVID-19 observations (ip_growth 2020-04 = -14.14, 2020-06 = +6.35; oil_chg 2020-03..05) lie inside every training window.",
      "handling": "Kept; the task fully specifies the model without outlier treatment. Noted as a limitation."
    },
    {
      "issue": "Current-vintage (revised) data; publication lags ignored.",
      "handling": "Errors computed on the data as given; no real-time validity claimed."
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "ip_predictors.csv": 417
  },
  "input_sha256": {
    "ip_predictors.csv": "7e388665caf3e4e7305ae6ed8f5625ab12a6c8df5c5696c1b5dd5b86da62a39b"
  },
  "n_analysed": 413,
  "random_seed": null
}