{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-02",
  "model_name": "ar1_1985_excovid",
  "model_description": "AR(1) with intercept estimated by OLS at each origin on the origin's vintage, sample 1985Q1 to last published quarter, excluding regression pairs involving 2020Q2-2020Q3 (COVID outliers); h=2 forecast iterated.",
  "n_origins": 8,
  "first_origin": "2024-01-31",
  "last_origin": "2025-12-31",
  "rmse_naive_h1": 2.0103,
  "mae_naive_h1": 1.6875,
  "rmse_naive_h2": 2.2652,
  "mae_naive_h2": 1.8125,
  "rmse_model_h1": 1.4855,
  "mae_model_h1": 1.2337,
  "rmse_model_h2": 1.4001,
  "mae_model_h2": 1.0298,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.2611,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h2": 0.3819,
  "mean_abs_revision_h1_targets": 0.5625,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "No 2025-10-31 vintage: 2025Q3 advance estimate delayed by federal shutdown; 8th origin is 2025-12-31 (gap of 5 months between last two origins)",
      "handling": "used origins as provided; horizons defined relative to last quarter in each file"
    },
    {
      "issue": "Extreme COVID observations 2020Q2 (~-28%) and 2020Q3 (~+35%) dominate OLS AR estimates",
      "handling": "regression pairs with dependent or lagged value in 2020Q2-2020Q3 excluded from AR estimation (pre-specified, not tuned on outcomes)"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-01-31.csv": 307,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-04-30.csv": 308,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-07-31.csv": 309,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-10-31.csv": 310,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-01-31.csv": 311,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-04-30.csv": 312,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-07-31.csv": 313,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-12-31.csv": 314,
    "current_vintage.csv": 318,
    "first_release.csv": 13
  },
  "n_analysed": 160,
  "random_seed": null
}