{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-01",
  "model_name": "ardl_emp_direct",
  "model_description": "Direct h-step OLS, separately per horizon: gdp_yoy(t+h) on a constant, gdp_yoy(t-2), emp_yoy(t-1) and emp_yoy(t-2), re-estimated at each origin on an expanding window of all target months from 1998 up to t-2 (training rows with target or regressor months in 2020-03..2021-12 excluded).",
  "n_origins": 48,
  "first_origin": "2022-05-01",
  "last_origin": "2026-04-01",
  "last_target_date_available": "2026-02-01",
  "last_predictor_date_available": "2026-03-01",
  "rmse_naive_h1": 0.813621,
  "mae_naive_h1": 0.64214,
  "rmse_model_h1": 0.666445,
  "mae_model_h1": 0.553764,
  "rmse_naive_h3": 1.139983,
  "mae_naive_h3": 0.871558,
  "rmse_model_h3": 0.851089,
  "mae_model_h3": 0.689985,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.18089,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h3": 0.25342,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "gdp_level/gdp_yoy empty for 2026-08 and 2026-09 (not yet published)",
      "handling": "never needed: latest target is 2026-07 and latest GDP used is 2026-02"
    },
    {
      "issue": "README says gdp_yoy/emp_yoy are empty for the first 12 months, but the file has values from 1998-01 (computed from pre-1998 levels not in the file)",
      "handling": "values used as given; recomputation from levels matches exactly wherever possible (from 1999-01)"
    },
    {
      "issue": "COVID-19 swings 2020-03..2021-12 (gdp_yoy from -16.2 to +18.5 %)",
      "handling": "training rows touching this window excluded from model estimation (pre-specified); evaluation period 2022-06..2026-07 unaffected"
    },
    {
      "issue": "data are current vintage, not first releases",
      "handling": "exercise simulates publication timing only; no real-time validity claimed"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "canada_gdp_employment.csv": 345
  },
  "n_analysed": 310,
  "n_analysed_h3": 306,
  "random_seed": null,
  "input_sha256": "f4c8e4976fb5f5f0c326e40bcb4f85b8b22963e5be89e2729e1a430c198f2bed",
  "dm_stat_h1": -1.5565,
  "dm_pvalue_two_sided_h1": 0.1263,
  "dm_stat_h3": -1.2418,
  "dm_pvalue_two_sided_h3": 0.2205,
  "dm_note": "negative stat = model has lower squared loss than naive; HLN-corrected, NW lags h+1, t(T-1) reference"
}