{
  "task_id": "F1-conf-03",
  "n_analysed": 1800,
  "n_firms": 300,
  "predictors_used": [
    "leverage",
    "cash_ratio",
    "log_sales"
  ],
  "variables_excluded": [
    {
      "variable": "rating_2025",
      "reason": "known only in 2025; built from realised default history through 2022 and average leverage over the sample (look-ahead / outcome leakage)"
    }
  ],
  "beta_leverage": 0.26378361029382663,
  "se_leverage_cluster": 0.040756928043461385,
  "r2": 0.03490564212216729,
  "default_rate": 0.12111111111111111,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "40 exact duplicate rows (40 duplicated firm_id-year keys; all copies identical in every column)",
      "handling": "dropped the redundant copies, kept one row per firm-year (300 firms x 7 years = 2100 rows)"
    },
    {
      "issue": "rating_2025 is a 2025 final-vintage field constructed from the realised default history (only class D has any defaults in the data)",
      "handling": "excluded from predictors and from analytic.csv"
    },
    {
      "issue": "default_next missing for 300 firm-years (all origin year [2022])",
      "handling": "excluded from estimation sample (right-censored at the data cut), no imputation"
    },
    {
      "issue": "default is not absorbing: firms record default_next=1 in multiple years (39 firm-years with default following a prior-year default) and remain in the panel",
      "handling": "kept as given (default treated as a recurring annual event); noted as limitation"
    },
    {
      "issue": "leverage bounded in [0.02, 0.95], suggesting possible winsorisation/clipping in the simulation",
      "handling": "kept as given"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "firm_panel.csv": 2140
  },
  "random_seed": null,
  "extra": {
    "ci95_leverage": [
      0.1839014992081518,
      0.34366572137950147
    ],
    "p_leverage": 9.663918872287931e-11,
    "coef": {
      "Intercept": 0.0899792640993549,
      "leverage": 0.26378361029382663,
      "cash_ratio": -0.1859483746572316,
      "log_sales": -0.0073421818075812845
    },
    "se_cluster": {
      "Intercept": 0.043516020709436797,
      "leverage": 0.040756928043461385,
      "cash_ratio": 0.05888608376645755,
      "log_sales": 0.0076261065145318925
    },
    "n_clusters": 300,
    "years": [
      2016,
      2021
    ]
  }
}