{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-02",
  "model_name": "ar1_1985",
  "model_description": "AR(1) with intercept estimated by OLS at each origin on that origin's vintage only, sample 1985Q1 to last published quarter, excluding regression pairs involving 2020Q2-2020Q3; h=2 forecast iterated from the h=1 forecast.",
  "n_origins": 8,
  "first_origin": "2024-01-31",
  "last_origin": "2025-12-31",
  "rmse_naive_h1": 2.010286,
  "mae_naive_h1": 1.6875,
  "rmse_model_h1": 1.483575,
  "mae_model_h1": 1.233214,
  "rmse_naive_h2": 2.265226,
  "mae_naive_h2": 1.8125,
  "rmse_model_h2": 1.397649,
  "mae_model_h2": 1.02952,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.262008,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h2": 0.382998,
  "n_origins_model_better_sqerr_h1": 5,
  "dm_tstat_sqerr_h1": 1.491149,
  "dm_pvalue_two_sided_h1": 0.179546,
  "n_origins_model_better_sqerr_h2": 8,
  "dm_tstat_sqerr_h2": 1.54885,
  "dm_pvalue_two_sided_h2": 0.165347,
  "mean_abs_revision_h1_targets": 0.5625,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "Pandemic outliers 2020Q2 (about -28) and 2020Q3 (about +35) present in every vintage.",
      "handling": "Regression pairs involving these quarters excluded from AR(1) estimation; naive unaffected."
    },
    {
      "issue": "Origins unevenly spaced: 2025Q3 advance estimate delayed by the 2025 federal shutdown, so origin 8 is 2025-12-31.",
      "handling": "Used as specified; target 2025Q4 is the h=2 target of origin 7 and the h=1 target of origin 8."
    },
    {
      "issue": "current_vintage.csv contains revisions unknown at the origins.",
      "handling": "Used only for mean_abs_revision_h1_targets, never for estimation or forecast input."
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "first_release.csv": 13,
    "current_vintage.csv": 318,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-01-31.csv": 307,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-04-30.csv": 308,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-07-31.csv": 309,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-10-31.csv": 310,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-01-31.csv": 311,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-04-30.csv": 312,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-07-31.csv": 313,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-12-31.csv": 314
  },
  "n_analysed": 314,
  "n_model_estimation_pairs_last_origin": 159,
  "random_seed": null
}