{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-01",
  "model_name": "ardl_emp",
  "model_description": "Direct h-step OLS regression of gdp_yoy(t+h) on a constant, the latest available gdp_yoy (t-2) and the latest available LFS emp_yoy (t-1), re-estimated at each origin on an expanding window starting 1998 using only pairs whose target is observed at the origin, excluding pairs touching 2020-03..2021-06 (COVID).",
  "n_origins": 48,
  "first_origin": "2022-05-01",
  "last_origin": "2026-04-01",
  "last_target_date_available": "2026-02-01",
  "last_predictor_date_available": "2026-03-01",
  "rmse_naive_h1": 0.813620914876824,
  "mae_naive_h1": 0.6421395833333333,
  "rmse_model_h1": 0.7412347469524387,
  "mae_model_h1": 0.6030098541666667,
  "rmse_naive_h3": 1.1399827160604965,
  "mae_naive_h3": 0.8715583333333333,
  "rmse_model_h3": 0.9466798110600257,
  "mae_model_h3": 0.7957363958333333,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.08896792916802532,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h3": 0.16956652261227145,
  "dm_stat_h1": 1.3308886605073662,
  "dm_pvalue_h1": 0.1896462756025693,
  "dm_stat_h3": 1.2563329714548979,
  "dm_pvalue_h3": 0.2152041190128537,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "gdp_yoy/emp_yoy populated for 1998-01..1998-12 although README says empty for first 12 months (1997 levels not in file; cannot be verified)",
      "handling": "used as given; only affects the earliest training observations"
    },
    {
      "issue": "GDP columns missing for 2026-08 and 2026-09 (not yet published)",
      "handling": "expected; never needed (latest target 2026-07)"
    },
    {
      "issue": "COVID-19 extreme y/y swings 2020-03..2021-06 (gdp_yoy -16.2 to +18.5)",
      "handling": "training pairs whose target or regressor month is in 2020-03..2021-06 excluded from model estimation; naive unaffected"
    },
    {
      "issue": "data are current vintage, not first releases",
      "handling": "exercise simulates publication timing only; no real-time validity claimed"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "canada_gdp_employment.csv": 345
  },
  "n_analysed": 316,
  "n_analysed_h3": 312,
  "last_estimation_sample": {
    "h1": {
      "n": 316,
      "n_covid": 19,
      "first": "1998-04-01",
      "last": "2026-02-01",
      "beta": [
        0.2922715731600751,
        0.815370883958882,
        0.0641950219125709
      ]
    },
    "h3": {
      "n": 312,
      "n_covid": 21,
      "first": "1998-06-01",
      "last": "2026-02-01",
      "beta": [
        0.6321209864459353,
        0.6522533186565527,
        0.08582716491416294
      ]
    }
  },
  "random_seed": null
}