{
  "task_id": "F6-conf-03",
  "sample_start": "1960-01-01",
  "sample_end": "2019-10-01",
  "n_sub1": 96,
  "n_sub2": 144,
  "baseline_metric": 0.32465793964999184,
  "model_metric": 0.2497438816636253,
  "effect_estimate": -0.2557677277487258,
  "intercept": 0.18438835418210714,
  "effect_se": 0.03583463330296569,
  "hac_lags": 4,
  "effect_ci_low": -0.32600231842173816,
  "effect_ci_high": -0.18553313707571345,
  "beta_sub1": -0.25902105345680587,
  "beta_sub2": -0.27339263306757905,
  "chow_f_stat": 6.0903330062337675,
  "chow_p_value": 0.002636323851733417,
  "stability_conclusion": "unstable",
  "conclusion": "negative_effect",
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "UNRATE.csv: missing value(s) at ['2025-10-01']",
      "handling": "outside the 1959Q4-2019Q4 window needed; not used"
    },
    {
      "issue": "Post-2019 observations (incl. COVID-19 2020 outliers) present in files",
      "handling": "excluded per task; no estimate uses quarters after 2019Q4"
    },
    {
      "issue": "GDPC1 is the current (2026) vintage, revised long after the fact; not real-time data",
      "handling": "used as is (task asks for a historical relationship); noted as limitation"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "GDPC1.csv": 319,
    "UNRATE.csv": 945
  },
  "n_analysed": 240,
  "random_seed": 0
}