{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-02",
  "model_name": "ar1_covid_excl",
  "model_description": "AR(1) with intercept estimated by OLS on the full origin vintage (1947Q2 to last published quarter), excluding equations whose dependent value or lag is 2020Q2 or 2020Q3, re-estimated at each origin; h=2 forecast iterated.",
  "n_origins": 8,
  "first_origin": "2024-01-31",
  "last_origin": "2025-12-31",
  "rmse_naive_h1": 2.0102860492974624,
  "mae_naive_h1": 1.6874999999999996,
  "rmse_naive_h2": 2.265226258014859,
  "mae_naive_h2": 1.8124999999999998,
  "rmse_model_h1": 1.6109716554376818,
  "mae_model_h1": 1.3032083749999999,
  "rmse_model_h2": 1.588391434330263,
  "mae_model_h2": 1.2056655,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.19863560909619282,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h2": 0.29879347428973524,
  "mean_abs_revision_h1_targets": 0.5625000000000001,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "2020Q2 (-28) and 2020Q3 (+35) COVID outliers in every vintage would dominate OLS AR estimates",
      "handling": "AR(1) equations whose dependent value or lag is 2020Q2 or 2020Q3 are excluded from estimation (equivalent to impulse dummies for 2020Q2-Q4); naive unaffected"
    },
    {
      "issue": "2025Q3 advance estimate delayed by the Oct-Nov 2025 federal shutdown; 8th origin is 2025-12-31, and the h=1 target 2025Q4 first release is dated 2026-02-28",
      "handling": "used as provided; origin spacing is irregular for the last origin"
    },
    {
      "issue": "Past values differ across vintages (e.g. 2023Q4: 3.3 in 2024-01-31 vintage, 3.4 in 2024-04-30, 3.2 in 2024-10-31) and annual revisions alter whole history",
      "handling": "each origin uses only its own vintage file; actuals are first releases"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "first_release.csv": 13,
    "current_vintage.csv": 318,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-01-31.csv": 307,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-04-30.csv": 308,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-07-31.csv": 309,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-10-31.csv": 310,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-01-31.csv": 311,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-04-30.csv": 312,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-07-31.csv": 313,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-12-31.csv": 314
  },
  "n_analysed": 314,
  "random_seed": null,
  "diebold_mariano_hln": {
    "h1": {
      "stat": 1.0536060012519628,
      "p_two_sided": 0.3270669218263444,
      "mean_loss_diff_naive_minus_model": 1.4460203253763748
    },
    "h2": {
      "stat": 1.2286618481253917,
      "p_two_sided": 0.2588986109564343,
      "mean_loss_diff_naive_minus_model": 2.6082626513462497
    }
  },
  "robustness": {
    "h1": {
      "n_origins_model_abs_error_smaller": 5,
      "loo_rel_improvement_rmse": {
        "2024-01-31": 0.21611752787537597,
        "2024-04-30": 0.18077510810179076,
        "2024-07-31": 0.19986024990140383,
        "2024-10-31": 0.20682217229119482,
        "2025-01-31": 0.35495897597334447,
        "2025-04-30": 0.04265491033865232,
        "2025-07-31": 0.20475591220279832,
        "2025-12-31": 0.183048175793447
      }
    },
    "h2": {
      "n_origins_model_abs_error_smaller": 5,
      "loo_rel_improvement_rmse": {
        "2024-01-31": 0.2996020301007819,
        "2024-04-30": 0.28679563265404906,
        "2024-07-31": 0.30909113960884127,
        "2024-10-31": 0.4876069381279523,
        "2025-01-31": 0.29470677921482347,
        "2025-04-30": 0.054922928245607516,
        "2025-07-31": 0.33421373337088855,
        "2025-12-31": 0.2828566707058159
      }
    }
  },
  "ar_fits": [
    {
      "origin": "2024-01-31",
      "const": 2.0610954184779753,
      "phi": 0.35559566946497484,
      "n_eq": 303
    },
    {
      "origin": "2024-04-30",
      "const": 2.0560226684857326,
      "phi": 0.3555671107284691,
      "n_eq": 304
    },
    {
      "origin": "2024-07-31",
      "const": 2.0565335027088723,
      "phi": 0.3554554803195453,
      "n_eq": 305
    },
    {
      "origin": "2024-10-31",
      "const": 2.066320001301406,
      "phi": 0.35528790103188207,
      "n_eq": 306
    },
    {
      "origin": "2025-01-31",
      "const": 2.064435653454866,
      "phi": 0.3552987560549239,
      "n_eq": 307
    },
    {
      "origin": "2025-04-30",
      "const": 2.052321791824073,
      "phi": 0.35591532401143494,
      "n_eq": 308
    },
    {
      "origin": "2025-07-31",
      "const": 2.05830516834095,
      "phi": 0.3549876436722734,
      "n_eq": 309
    },
    {
      "origin": "2025-12-31",
      "const": 2.067306502190792,
      "phi": 0.3541829123595062,
      "n_eq": 310
    }
  ],
  "revisions_h1_targets": {
    "2024-01-01": {
      "first": 1.6,
      "current": 1.4
    },
    "2024-04-01": {
      "first": 2.8,
      "current": 3.6
    },
    "2024-07-01": {
      "first": 2.8,
      "current": 3.2
    },
    "2024-10-01": {
      "first": 2.3,
      "current": 2.4
    },
    "2025-01-01": {
      "first": -0.3,
      "current": 0.1
    },
    "2025-04-01": {
      "first": 3.0,
      "current": 4.0
    },
    "2025-07-01": {
      "first": 4.3,
      "current": 3.9
    },
    "2025-10-01": {
      "first": 1.4,
      "current": 0.2
    }
  }
}