- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.
- 2026-10-30 P1 passed: data clean, no exclusions.
- 2026-10-30 P2 passed: iid baseline reproduces memo.
- 2026-10-30 P3 passed: HAC with Andrews plug-in bandwidth (8 lags); decision: max(Andrews, NW rule-of-thumb).
- 2026-10-30 P4 passed: reproducible, all consistency checks pass.
- 2026-10-30 P5 passed: report and claims written. Verdict: memo claim not supported (p_hac=0.119).