{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-03",
  "n_origins": 60,
  "first_origin": "2021-09-01",
  "last_origin": "2026-08-01",
  "lambda": 50.0,
  "normalisation_window": "expanding",
  "n_features": 8,
  "rmse_naive": 0.8830699166753823,
  "mae_naive": 0.6989594000000001,
  "rmse_mean": 0.5439355781141625,
  "mae_mean": 0.42929777256194207,
  "rmse_ridge": 0.5607989303521244,
  "mae_ridge": 0.45141289074453916,
  "rel_improvement_vs_naive": 0.3649439078805412,
  "rel_improvement_vs_mean": -0.031002480654837017,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "neworder_chg missing for 1992-01 and 1992-02 (NEWORDER starts 1992-02)",
      "handling": "Not used: training rows start at s=1992-03 per TASK.md; no imputation needed."
    },
    {
      "issue": "data/README.md states the first month (1992-01) of each change series is empty, but ip_growth, oil_chg and permit_chg are populated for 1992-01",
      "handling": "Values used as given; only ip_growth_1992-01 enters (as lag ip_growth_{s-2} for s=1992-03). oil_chg/permit_chg 1992-01 are not used."
    },
    {
      "issue": "Extreme ip_growth values in training windows (e.g. 2020-04 = -14.1, 2020-06 = +6.3, 2008-09 = -4.5)",
      "handling": "Kept: the ridge specification is fixed by TASK.md; no outlier treatment. Noted as a limitation."
    },
    {
      "issue": "Current-vintage (revised) data with publication lags ignored",
      "handling": "Errors computed on data as given; no real-time validity claimed."
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "ip_predictors.csv": 417
  },
  "n_analysed": 413,
  "random_seed": null,
  "dm_stat_naive_vs_ridge": 3.3649594921847754,
  "dm_pvalue_naive_vs_ridge": 0.0013506687241571726,
  "dm_stat_mean_vs_ridge": -0.5392198591267084,
  "dm_pvalue_mean_vs_ridge": 0.5917642583421929,
  "sha256_input": "7e388665caf3e4e7305ae6ed8f5625ab12a6c8df5c5696c1b5dd5b86da62a39b",
  "baseline_best_rmse_model": "mean"
}