{
  "P0": {
    "status": "passed",
    "checks": [
      "TASK.md read fully",
      "contract.md written with estimands, outputs, info rules"
    ],
    "notes": ""
  },
  "P1": {
    "status": "passed",
    "checks": [
      "SHA-256 computed and matches README/bundle",
      "417x7 schema, date range, gaps, duplicates checked",
      "missingness and extremes tabulated",
      "exclusions.csv: 417-2-2=413 = n_analysed (asserted in script)"
    ],
    "notes": "README/data 1992-01 discrepancy recorded"
  },
  "P2": {
    "status": "passed",
    "checks": [
      "naive and expanding-mean baselines computed with same 60-origin evaluation: rmse_naive=0.8831, rmse_mean=0.5439"
    ],
    "notes": "baselines are task-required keys"
  },
  "P3": {
    "status": "passed",
    "checks": [
      "analysis.py reads only data/, writes results.json, forecasts.csv, exclusions.csv",
      "no randomness: random_seed=null",
      "per-origin standardisation from training window"
    ],
    "notes": ""
  },
  "P4": {
    "status": "passed",
    "checks": [
      "clean re-run byte-identical results.json & forecasts.csv",
      "independent ridge recomputation at 3 origins matches",
      "metric identities, counts, exclusions add up",
      "future-data perturbation leakage test passed",
      "see out/state/checks.md (12 checks, all PASS)"
    ],
    "notes": ""
  },
  "P5": {
    "status": "passed",
    "checks": [
      "report.md has 6 required sections",
      "all backticked result keys in report exist in results.json: True",
      "all claims.json results_keys exist in results.json: True"
    ],
    "notes": ""
  }
}