{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-03",
  "n_origins": 60,
  "first_origin": "2021-09-01",
  "last_origin": "2026-08-01",
  "lambda": 50.0,
  "normalisation_window": "expanding",
  "n_features": 8,
  "rmse_naive": 0.8830699166753823,
  "mae_naive": 0.6989594000000001,
  "rmse_mean": 0.5439355781141625,
  "mae_mean": 0.42929777256194207,
  "rmse_ridge": 0.5607989303521244,
  "mae_ridge": 0.45141289074453916,
  "rel_improvement_vs_naive": 0.3649439078805412,
  "rel_improvement_vs_mean": -0.031002480654837017,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "Missing values: {'neworder_chg': 2} (neworder_chg empty for 1992-01/02). README says the first month of each change series is empty, but ip_growth/oil_chg/permit_chg for 1992-01 are populated in the file.",
      "handling": "No imputation needed: ridge training starts at s=1992-03 (lags reach 1992-01 for ip_growth only), expanding mean starts 1992-04 as specified; populated 1992-01 values used as given."
    },
    {
      "issue": "Large COVID-19 outliers in 2020 (ip_growth min -14.14, max 6.35).",
      "handling": "Kept as given; no winsorisation (not in specification)."
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "ip_predictors.csv": 417
  },
  "n_analysed": 413,
  "random_seed": 20261030,
  "supplementary": {
    "dm_ridge_vs_naive": [
      -3.3649594921847754,
      0.0013506687241571726
    ],
    "dm_ridge_vs_mean": [
      0.5392198591267081,
      0.591764258342193
    ],
    "boot95_rel_impr_vs_naive": [
      0.23500539342572274,
      0.46299549778258603
    ],
    "boot95_rel_impr_vs_mean": [
      -0.16820638961201373,
      0.07227845785548916
    ]
  }
}