{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-03",
  "n_origins": 60,
  "first_origin": "2021-09-01",
  "last_origin": "2026-08-01",
  "lambda": 50.0,
  "normalisation_window": "expanding",
  "n_features": 8,
  "rmse_naive": 0.8830699166753823,
  "mae_naive": 0.6989594000000001,
  "rmse_mean": 0.5439355781141625,
  "mae_mean": 0.42929777256194207,
  "rmse_ridge": 0.5607989303521244,
  "mae_ridge": 0.45141289074453916,
  "rel_improvement_vs_naive": 0.3649439078805412,
  "rel_improvement_vs_mean": -0.031002480654837017,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "Missing values: neworder_chg=2 (neworder_chg for 1992-01/02).",
      "handling": "Not used: earliest ridge training row is 1992-03, whose features (incl. lags to 1992-01 of ip_growth) are complete."
    },
    {
      "issue": "README says the first month (1992-01) of each change series is empty, but ip_growth, oil_chg and permit_chg have values for 1992-01 (presumably computed from 1991-12 levels).",
      "handling": "Values used as given; ip_growth 1992-01 enters only as the second lag of the 1992-03 training row; the expanding-mean baseline starts at 1992-04 as specified."
    },
    {
      "issue": "Extreme COVID-19 observations in ip_growth (min -14.142 at 2020-04, max 6.347 at 2020-06) lie in every training window.",
      "handling": "Kept as given (task specifies the estimator exactly); noted as a limitation."
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "ip_predictors.csv": 417
  },
  "n_analysed": 413,
  "random_seed": 20261030
}