{
 "critical_violations": [],
 "evaluated_utc": "2026-10-30T04:13:02.161980+00:00",
 "evaluator_version": "F3-conf-03/1.0",
 "notes": "Deterministic evaluation; reproducibility filled by the harness. Normalisation window inferred from the ledger by comparison with two reference forecast sets.",
 "oracle_sha256": "273d2af8cf5c5aa4208c6c027b99b3bb991a50206b54c5d3c1a212dd610f3935",
 "quality_components": {
  "baseline": 1.0,
  "correctness": 1.0,
  "integrity": 1.0,
  "reporting": 1.0,
  "reproducibility": 1.0
 },
 "quality_score": 1.0,
 "receipt_sha256": "3515db320a225968b6733478115518cfc315c4f5930b371e96fbc77c5daba677",
 "required_criteria": [
  {
   "description": "Naive RMSE/MAE exact (rel 1e-6)",
   "expected": {
    "mae_naive": 0.6989594000000001,
    "rmse_naive": 0.8830699166753823
   },
   "id": "naive",
   "observed": {
    "mae_naive": 0.6989594000000001,
    "rmse_naive": 0.8830699166753823
   },
   "passed": true,
   "tolerance": {
    "mae_naive": {
     "rel": 1e-06
    },
    "rmse_naive": {
     "rel": 1e-06
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "description": "Expanding-mean RMSE/MAE exact (rel 1e-6)",
   "expected": {
    "mae_mean": 0.42929777256194207,
    "rmse_mean": 0.5439355781141625
   },
   "id": "mean_baseline",
   "observed": {
    "mae_mean": 0.42929777256194207,
    "rmse_mean": 0.5439355781141625
   },
   "passed": true,
   "tolerance": {
    "mae_mean": {
     "rel": 1e-06
    },
    "rmse_mean": {
     "rel": 1e-06
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "description": "Ridge RMSE/MAE within 1e-3 relative of the expanding-window-standardised reference",
   "expected": {
    "mae_ridge": 0.45141289074453905,
    "rmse_ridge": 0.5607989303521242
   },
   "id": "ridge_errors",
   "observed": {
    "mae_ridge": 0.45141289074453916,
    "rmse_ridge": 0.5607989303521244
   },
   "passed": true,
   "tolerance": {
    "mae_ridge": {
     "rel": 0.001
    },
    "rmse_ridge": {
     "rel": 0.001
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "description": "n_origins = 60",
   "expected": {
    "n_origins": 60
   },
   "id": "counts",
   "observed": {
    "n_origins": 60
   },
   "passed": true,
   "tolerance": {
    "n_origins": {
     "abs": 0
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "description": "forecasts.csv: 180 rows, targets = origin + 1, naive/mean rows exact, actuals = data",
   "expected": {
    "n_rows": 180,
    "rows_per_model": 60
   },
   "id": "forecasts_chronology",
   "observed": {
    "actual_mismatches": 0,
    "bad_rows": 0,
    "n_rows": 180,
    "rows_per_model": {
     "mean": 60,
     "naive": 60,
     "ridge": 60
    }
   },
   "passed": true,
   "tolerance": null
  },
  {
   "description": "RMS distance of ridge forecasts to the expanding-window reference <= 1e-3",
   "expected": {
    "rms_to_expanding_ref": "<= 0.001"
   },
   "id": "ridge_forecasts_match",
   "observed": {
    "rms_to_expanding_ref": 3.318261966811224e-16,
    "rms_to_full_sample_ref": 0.005946912044943551
   },
   "passed": true,
   "tolerance": 0.001
  },
  {
   "description": "ridge RMSE/MAE agree with forecasts.csv (rel 1e-5)",
   "expected": null,
   "id": "model_errors_consistent",
   "observed": {
    "mae_from_csv": 0.45141289074453916,
    "mae_reported": 0.45141289074453916,
    "rmse_from_csv": 0.5607989303521244,
    "rmse_reported": 0.5607989303521244
   },
   "passed": true,
   "tolerance": {
    "rel": 1e-05
   }
  },
  {
   "description": "relative improvements = 1 - rmse_ridge/rmse_baseline (abs 1e-6)",
   "expected": null,
   "id": "rel_improvement_consistent",
   "observed": {
    "rel_improvement_vs_mean": {
     "expected": -0.031002480654837017,
     "reported": -0.031002480654837017
    },
    "rel_improvement_vs_naive": {
     "expected": 0.3649439078805412,
     "reported": 0.3649439078805412
    }
   },
   "passed": true,
   "tolerance": {
    "abs": 1e-06
   }
  },
  {
   "description": "normalisation_window == 'expanding'",
   "expected": "expanding",
   "id": "normalisation_declared",
   "observed": "expanding",
   "passed": true,
   "tolerance": null
  }
 ],
 "run_id": "RC0035",
 "schema_error": "",
 "schema_valid": true,
 "scientific_success": true,
 "task_id": "F3-conf-03"
}