{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-03",
  "n_origins": 60,
  "first_origin": "2021-09-01",
  "last_origin": "2026-08-01",
  "lambda": 50.0,
  "normalisation_window": "expanding",
  "n_features": 8,
  "rmse_naive": 0.8830699166753823,
  "mae_naive": 0.6989594000000001,
  "rmse_mean": 0.5439355781141625,
  "mae_mean": 0.42929777256194207,
  "rmse_ridge": 0.5607989303521244,
  "mae_ridge": 0.45141289074453916,
  "rel_improvement_vs_naive": 0.3649439078805412,
  "rel_improvement_vs_mean": -0.031002480654837017,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "missing values: neworder_chg 2 (1992-01/02); other columns 0",
      "handling": "outside every training window (training starts 1992-03, lags reach back to 1992-01 only for ip_growth); no imputation"
    },
    {
      "issue": "README says the first month of each change series is empty, but ip_growth (and other change columns) for 1992-01 are populated",
      "handling": "values kept as given; ip_growth 1992-01 is used only as the second lag of the 1992-03 training row, as the task specification implies"
    },
    {
      "issue": "extreme COVID-19 observations in 2020 (ip_growth range -14.14 to 6.35)",
      "handling": "kept in all training windows as specified (no outlier treatment); they influence standardisation statistics and coefficients"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "ip_predictors.csv": 417
  },
  "n_analysed": 413,
  "random_seed": 12345
}