- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.
- 2026-10-30 P1 passed: audit done; decision: AR(1) estimated from 1985Q1, excluding 2020Q2/Q3 pairs (fixed before seeing forecast errors).
- 2026-10-30 P2/P3 passed: naive + AR(1) forecasts, DM-HLN test added for uncertainty.
- 2026-10-30 P4: reproducibility and consistency checks pass; running gate.
- 2026-10-30 P4 passed (gate receipt recorded); P5 report+claims written; running final gate.
- 2026-10-30 Final gate passed; all phases passed. Task complete.