[
 {"id":"C1","text":"Real-time naive forecasts of first-release US GDP growth had RMSE 2.01 pp (h=1) and 2.27 pp (h=2) over the 8 origins 2024-01-31 to 2025-12-31.","results_keys":["rmse_naive_h1","rmse_naive_h2","mae_naive_h1","mae_naive_h2"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Only 8 errors per horizon."},
 {"id":"C2","text":"An AR(1) estimated on each real-time vintage (1985Q1 onward, excluding COVID pairs) lowered RMSE relative to naive by 26% at h=1 and 38% at h=2.","results_keys":["rmse_model_h1","rmse_model_h2","rel_improvement_rmse_h1","rel_improvement_rmse_h2"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Point estimates only; driven by a few unusual quarters."},
 {"id":"C3","text":"The AR(1) improvement over naive is not statistically significant (HLN-DM p = 0.18 at h=1, 0.12 at h=2).","results_keys":["dm_hln_pvalue_h1","dm_hln_pvalue_h2"],"status":"supported","caveat":"The test has low power with T=8."},
 {"id":"C4","text":"The h=1 target quarters were revised by an average of 0.56 pp in absolute value between first release and the 2026-10-30 vintage.","results_keys":["mean_abs_revision_h1_targets"],"status":"supported","caveat":"Later quarters have had fewer revision rounds than earlier ones."}
]