{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-02",
  "model_name": "ar1_1985_xcovid",
  "model_description": "AR(1) with intercept estimated by OLS on each origin's vintage from 1985Q1 to the last published quarter, excluding regression pairs involving the 2020Q2/2020Q3 COVID quarters; h=2 forecast by iterating the AR(1).",
  "n_origins": 8,
  "first_origin": "2024-01-31",
  "last_origin": "2025-12-31",
  "rmse_naive_h1": 2.010286,
  "mae_naive_h1": 1.6875,
  "rmse_naive_h2": 2.265226,
  "mae_naive_h2": 1.8125,
  "rmse_model_h1": 1.485481,
  "mae_model_h1": 1.233655,
  "rmse_model_h2": 1.400073,
  "mae_model_h2": 1.029787,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.26106,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h2": 0.381928,
  "mean_abs_revision_h1_targets": 0.5625,
  "dm_hln_stat_h1": 1.4854,
  "dm_hln_pvalue_h1": 0.181,
  "dm_hln_stat_h2": 1.7448,
  "dm_hln_pvalue_h2": 0.1245,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "irregular origin spacing: 2025-07-31 -> 2025-12-31 (153 days), due to delayed BEA advance estimate (2025 shutdown)",
      "handling": "kept as given; h is defined relative to last quarter in the vintage, so targets stay consecutive quarters"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "first_release.csv": 13,
    "current_vintage.csv": 318,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-01-31.csv": 307,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-04-30.csv": 308,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-07-31.csv": 309,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-10-31.csv": 310,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-01-31.csv": 311,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-04-30.csv": 312,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-07-31.csv": 313,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-12-31.csv": 314
  },
  "n_analysed": 314,
  "random_seed": null
}