{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-02",
  "model_name": "ar1_1985_excovid",
  "model_description": "AR(1) with intercept estimated by OLS at each origin on that origin's vintage only, dependent sample 1985Q2 to the last vintage quarter excluding dependent quarters 2020Q2-2020Q4 (COVID outliers); h=2 forecast by iterating the AR(1).",
  "n_origins": 8,
  "first_origin": "2024-01-31",
  "last_origin": "2025-12-31",
  "rmse_naive_h1": 2.0102860492974624,
  "mae_naive_h1": 1.6874999999999996,
  "rmse_model_h1": 1.4835747469242266,
  "mae_model_h1": 1.233214264175,
  "rmse_naive_h2": 2.265226258014859,
  "mae_naive_h2": 1.8124999999999998,
  "rmse_model_h2": 1.3976488356584449,
  "mae_model_h2": 1.0295196499375001,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.2620081368804734,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h2": 0.3829981306665231,
  "mean_abs_revision_h1_targets": 0.5625000000000001,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "COVID-19 outliers 2020Q2 (about -28%) and 2020Q3 (about +35%) in all vintages",
      "handling": "dependent quarters 2020Q2-2020Q4 excluded from AR(1) estimation (decided before evaluation)"
    },
    {
      "issue": "8th origin is 2025-12-31 (2025Q3 advance estimate delayed by the 2025 federal shutdown); 2025Q4 first release dated 2026-02-28",
      "handling": "used as provided; origin dates and first-release dates checked to respect chronology"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "first_release.csv": 13,
    "current_vintage.csv": 318,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-01-31.csv": 307,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-04-30.csv": 308,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-07-31.csv": 309,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-10-31.csv": 310,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-01-31.csv": 311,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-04-30.csv": 312,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-07-31.csv": 313,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-12-31.csv": 314
  },
  "n_analysed": 159,
  "random_seed": null,
  "supp_n_origins_model_lower_sqerr_h1": 5,
  "supp_dm_stat_h1": 1.5941055544494525,
  "supp_dm_pvalue_t7_h1": 0.15494148844232725,
  "supp_n_origins_model_lower_sqerr_h2": 8,
  "supp_dm_stat_h2": 1.8602935386351485,
  "supp_dm_pvalue_t7_h2": 0.10516614254520543,
  "ar1_coefficients_last_origin": {
    "intercept": 1.7716206256012257,
    "phi": 0.33465673263863993
  }
}