# Log
- 2026-10-30 P0 contract written. Model spec fixed before computing any out-of-sample errors: AR(1)-OLS, dependent sample 1985Q2..end of vintage, exclude dependent quarters 2020Q2-2020Q4 (COVID outliers as y_t or y_{t-1}).
- 2026-10-30 Note: a stray empty dir data/out/state was accidentally created by mkdir in wrong cwd and immediately removed; data files untouched (SHA-256 verified match README).
- 2026-10-30 P1-P4 passed (gate run 1: only P5 files missing). P5 report+claims written.
- 2026-10-30 Gate run 2 PASSED. Task complete pending review.