{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-02",
  "model_name": "ar1_1985_excovid",
  "model_description": "AR(1) with intercept estimated by OLS on each origin's vintage, sample 1985Q1 to the last published quarter, excluding regression pairs touching 2020Q1-2021Q1; h=2 forecast by iteration.",
  "n_origins": 8,
  "first_origin": "2024-01-31",
  "last_origin": "2025-12-31",
  "rmse_naive_h1": 2.010286,
  "mae_naive_h1": 1.6875,
  "rmse_naive_h2": 2.265226,
  "mae_naive_h2": 1.8125,
  "rmse_model_h1": 1.481186,
  "mae_model_h1": 1.222635,
  "rmse_model_h2": 1.399067,
  "mae_model_h2": 1.020969,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.263196,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h2": 0.382372,
  "mean_abs_revision_h1_targets": 0.5625,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "2025Q3 advance estimate delayed by the Oct-Nov 2025 federal shutdown; 8th origin is 2025-12-31 and the 2025Q4 first release is dated 2026-02-28",
      "handling": "used origins as supplied; spacing between last two origins is 5 months, targets still defined relative to last quarter in the vintage"
    },
    {
      "issue": "values of earlier quarters differ across vintages (revisions, incl. annual updates)",
      "handling": "each origin uses only its own vintage file; current vintage used only for the revision statistic"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "first_release.csv": 13,
    "current_vintage.csv": 318,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-01-31.csv": 307,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-04-30.csv": 308,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-07-31.csv": 309,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-10-31.csv": 310,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-01-31.csv": 311,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-04-30.csv": 312,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-07-31.csv": 313,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-12-31.csv": 314
  },
  "n_analysed": 314,
  "random_seed": null
}