{
  "task_id": "F3-conf-02",
  "model_name": "ar1_post1985_excovid",
  "model_description": "AR(1) with intercept estimated by OLS at each origin on that origin's vintage only, dependent quarters 1985Q1 to the last vintage quarter, excluding regression rows t=2020Q2-2020Q4 (COVID outliers in y_t or y_{t-1}); h=2 forecast iterated from the h=1 forecast.",
  "n_origins": 8,
  "first_origin": "2024-01-31",
  "last_origin": "2025-12-31",
  "rmse_naive_h1": 2.0102860492974624,
  "mae_naive_h1": 1.6874999999999996,
  "rmse_model_h1": 1.4854810377410896,
  "mae_model_h1": 1.2336553091736995,
  "rmse_naive_h2": 2.265226258014859,
  "mae_naive_h2": 1.8124999999999998,
  "rmse_model_h2": 1.4000730374931272,
  "mae_model_h2": 1.0297873006202798,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h1": 0.26105986844000484,
  "rel_improvement_rmse_h2": 0.38192794978454503,
  "n_origins_model_abs_error_smaller_h1": 5,
  "n_origins_model_abs_error_smaller_h2": 8,
  "mean_abs_revision_h1_targets": 0.5625000000000001,
  "feasibility": "complete",
  "feasibility_reason": null,
  "data_issues": [
    {
      "issue": "COVID-19 outliers 2020Q2 (~-28) and 2020Q3 (~+35) in every vintage",
      "handling": "AR regression rows t=2020Q2-2020Q4 excluded (dependent or lag is a COVID quarter); naive unaffected"
    },
    {
      "issue": "Irregular origin spacing: 8th origin 2025-12-31 instead of 2025-10-31 (2025Q3 advance estimate delayed by federal shutdown)",
      "handling": "Used as provided; horizons defined relative to last quarter in each vintage, so targets are 2025Q4 and 2026Q1"
    },
    {
      "issue": "Values of earlier quarters differ across vintages (revisions)",
      "handling": "Each origin uses only its own vintage; current vintage used only for revision statistic"
    }
  ],
  "n_input_rows": {
    "current_vintage.csv": 318,
    "first_release.csv": 13,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-01-31.csv": 307,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-04-30.csv": 308,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-07-31.csv": 309,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2024-10-31.csv": 310,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-01-31.csv": 311,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-04-30.csv": 312,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-07-31.csv": 313,
    "vintages/A191RL1Q225SBEA_vintage_2025-12-31.csv": 314
  },
  "n_analysed": 160,
  "random_seed": null,
  "ar1_coefficients_by_origin": {
    "2024-01-31": {
      "intercept": 1.740987811847352,
      "phi": 0.34112458750263974,
      "n_reg": 153
    },
    "2024-04-30": {
      "intercept": 1.735383972337271,
      "phi": 0.340324255532007,
      "n_reg": 154
    },
    "2024-07-31": {
      "intercept": 1.7410078382331322,
      "phi": 0.339182491319633,
      "n_reg": 155
    },
    "2024-10-31": {
      "intercept": 1.7535732188313151,
      "phi": 0.342234370772098,
      "n_reg": 156
    },
    "2025-01-31": {
      "intercept": 1.7525583227108583,
      "phi": 0.3421075053688942,
      "n_reg": 157
    },
    "2025-04-30": {
      "intercept": 1.731218830940902,
      "phi": 0.34347535386856687,
      "n_reg": 158
    },
    "2025-07-31": {
      "intercept": 1.7547184424238143,
      "phi": 0.3377599442514625,
      "n_reg": 159
    },
    "2025-12-31": {
      "intercept": 1.7761306755042419,
      "phi": 0.3353427675120714,
      "n_reg": 160
    }
  },
  "abs_revision_h1_targets": {
    "2024-01-01": 0.20000000000000018,
    "2024-04-01": 0.8000000000000003,
    "2024-07-01": 0.40000000000000036,
    "2024-10-01": 0.10000000000000009,
    "2025-01-01": 0.4,
    "2025-04-01": 1.0,
    "2025-07-01": 0.3999999999999999,
    "2025-10-01": 1.2
  }
}