- 2026-10-30 P0 passed: contract written.
- 2026-10-30 P1: audit done; hashes match; model decision fixed before computing any forecast: AR(1) OLS w/ intercept, 1985Q1+, pandemic rows excluded, iterated forecasts.
- 2026-10-30 P1: audit done; hashes match; model decision fixed before computing any forecast: AR(1) OLS w/ intercept, 1985Q1+, pandemic rows excluded, iterated forecasts.
- 2026-10-30 P1: audit done; hashes match. Model decision fixed before computing any forecast: AR(1) OLS w/ intercept, 1985Q1+, pandemic pairs excluded, iterated forecasts. Incident: state dir accidentally created under data/, moved out, data hashes re-verified.
- 2026-10-30 P2-P3 passed (baseline + AR(1)); P4 passed (reproducible, all checks PASS); P5 passed (report, claims). Task complete.